SHANG CHI SECOND WEEKEND THREAD: 35.8M (-53%), DILF Leung Conquers #1 Spot | Free Guy 5.8, Malignant 5.6, Candyman 4.9, Jungle Cruise 2.4, Card Counter 1.1

[john2000]

Just now, CJ Sarandos said:

Normal??? Excuse me what the fuck?? If you think box office is normal rn then you are more delusional than ERC my friend.

it actually is at least dom.....there is nothing to indicate that say for example shang chi would have hit 300 mill dom pre pandemic...so maybe not to normal ...but close to normal in the domestic market ? absolutely imo

[john2000]

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by john2000

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

it actually is at least dom.....there is nothing to indicate that say for example shang chi would have hit 300 mill dom pre pandemic...so maybe not to normal ...but close to normal in the domestic market ? absolutely imo

It might be close to normal for something like Shang-Chi, but it certainly isn't for other stuff. You guys are living in a different world. 

[Blankments]

 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, CJ Sarandos said:

It might be close to normal for something like Shang-Chi, but it certainly isn't for other stuff. You guys are living in a different world. 

lol why shang chi is any different ? almost all the theatrical exlusives did 85-90% of what they would have done pre pandemic imo

Edited September 12, 2021 by john2000

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

It might be close to normal for something like Shang-Chi, but it certainly isn't for other stuff. You guys are living in a different world. 

People are extrapolating capacity at max levels when we have seen nothing like that all year. It's like the 5 million death scenarios for USA last year and the 100k death scenarios. Both were idiotic and stupid.

 

We have way more data now so Charlie may be right or he may not. I'm excited to see either way

Edited September 12, 2021 by cdsacken

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

lol why shang chi is any different ? almost all the theatrical exlusives did 85-90% of what they would have done pre pandemic imo

Respect would have done way more. Probably around 20M OW. Candyman probably would have done 30M OW. Night House would have probably opened with 6-7M. Again, absolutely delusional to think everything is normal.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, JWR said:

Then again, I'm also predicting that Eternals can open up with $100M+ on OW and make $275-325M DOM, so who am I to talk?

 

My laugh reaction is to your last line, not your prediction which I also agree with. 

[john2000]

Just now, CJ Sarandos said:

Respect would have done way more. Probably around 20M OW. Candyman probably would have done 30M OW. Night House would have probably opened with 6-7M. Again, absolutely delusional to think everything is normal.

based on what ? you maybe right for candyman but for the others ? doubt it

[john2000]

 

 

[CJohn]

Just now, john2000 said:

based on what ? you maybe right for candyman but for the others ? doubt it

Many many people agreed about Respect on its OW.

[Justin4125]

18 minutes ago, john2000 said:

lol why shang chi is any different ? almost all the theatrical exlusives did 85-90% of what they would have done pre pandemic imo

We have absolutely no way of comparing a film to a counterfactual "normal" world. We do know, however, that domestic surveys suggest that far fewer than 85% of people feel comfortable going to the cinema and every film has significantly underperformed (at least in the last two months) expectations of "normal times" internationally. MCU films do crazy numbers because of their four quad appeal and we also know families and older people have been shunning cinemas in particularly high numbers (just look at theatrical exclusives targeting those markets) 

All that in mind, that Shang Chi only suffered a 10% hit seems quite low to me based on moviegoing behavior in general. An MCU movie with this kind of reviews and WOM would normally have opened much higher, we can't just write off the success of movies like BP and CM to lower the bar. Also look at Candyman. I have a tough time thinking that Candyman would have "only" opened to 25m (10-15% higher as you suggest) in normal times. Its for that reason that I am also doubtful that the new Spidey film will hit 500m domestically, we're still underestimating the impact of Covid if we think a film can hit 500m in current conditions primarily because of Shang Chi's OW

Edited September 12, 2021 by Justin4125

[HouseOfTheSun]

55 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

NWH $500M is floor. If quality is good wild wishes like $600M & $700M are possible.

500m is my pie in the sky but I’m liking the way you’re thinking lmao 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Respect would have done way more. Probably around 20M OW. Candyman probably would have done 30M OW. Night House would have probably opened with 6-7M. Again, absolutely delusional to think everything is normal.

 

It's not normal but it's really not that far off, honestly. At worse I'd say we're about 20% light in the domestic market. Shang Chi with no pandemic hesitancy or closures might have done $280-300M instead of the $225-250M it's going to do.

I don't think a film like Respect or Candyman would have done markedly better. There was plenty of screenings and available seats. I don't see a situation where demand would have been 40-50% higher.

Edited September 12, 2021 by VenomXXR

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

We have absolutely no way of comparing a film to a counterfactual "normal" world. We do know, however, that domestic surveys suggest that far less than 85% of people feel comfortable going to the cinema and every film has significantly underperformed (at least in the last two months) expectations of "normal times" internationally. MCU films do crazy numbers because of their four quad appeal and we know families and older people have been shunning cinemas in particularly high numbers.

All that in mind, that Shang Chi only suffered a 10% hit seems quite low to me based on moviegoing behavior in general. An MCU movie with this kind of reviews and WOM would normally have opened much higher, we can't just write off the success of movies like BP and CM to lower the bar. Its for that reason that I am also doubtful that the new Spidey film will hit 500m domestically. I think we're still underestimating the impact of Covid if we think a film can hit 500m in current conditions 

we right off cm and black panther bc even pre pandemic shang chi almost certainly wouldnt have hit numbers like that...and these 2 movies were the only one that hit such high number ....

[HouseOfTheSun]

30 minutes ago, JWR said:

At this rate and in this environment, we should consider Spider-Man hitting $300M DOM a huge success. 

Ow right 

[cdsacken]

You can use tiny films and say it's 90% back. Back means people hundreds of thousands of people crammed together in every state and going back again. That was end game. (I've seen zero movies more than twice in theaters except end game at 5 times).

 

Max capacity is a variable that is hard to account for

 

[Maggie]

Crazy Rich Asians made 175M.  i believe Shang Chi had the potential to do way more than 220M (?) being Marvel and attracting families ...

Edited September 12, 2021 by Maggie

[CJohn]

If you all think market is great right now then streaming has truly won because as is the market is unsustainable.

[john2000]

anyways everyone lets stop this we are getting out of topic..lets get back to the weekend numbers...i will start i am suprised that M did better os than dom...