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charlie Jatinder

SHANG CHI SECOND WEEKEND THREAD: 35.8M (-53%), DILF Leung Conquers #1 Spot | Free Guy 5.8, Malignant 5.6, Candyman 4.9, Jungle Cruise 2.4, Card Counter 1.1

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

Well you have...

 

Shang Chi with maybe 450m WW.

 

BW with 375m WW with another 100m from PA.

 

So simply looking at Shang Chi's legs doesn't really tell the whole story.

 

Either way both strategies have their pro's and cons and either is more effective than HBOMax's free access on day one strategy which has both the weaknesses of the Disney strategies and none of the strengths.

 

If those are the final numbers for each - very close - it seems like a clear win for Shang Chi, in my mind.

 

I genuinely don't understand the direct comparisons that don't recognize that Black Widow is an established character that was in *seven* MCU films before it's standalone film, while Shang-Chi is a relative unknown just starting off. It's also opening in the mix of Delta variant in September, as opposed to the heart of summer. 

 

For me, adding in the PA numbers with the actual box office and saying that Black Widow's performance therefore highlights the strength of simultaneous PA, is an unpersuasive argument. Particularly given Black Widow's lack of staying power at the box office.

 

Then again, there are other factors to weigh, and I recognize I have an instinctual dislike of this simultaneous PA strategy, so perhaps I'm a wee bit biased. Either way, my sense is Shang-Chi's performance is a real win for theatrical exclusivity over simultaneous PA - and I think Shang-Chi's legs, particularly after this weekend, will further demonstrate that.

 

Peace,

Mike

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tonytr87 Blockbuster

tonytr87

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

If those are the final numbers for each - very close - it seems like a clear win for Shang Chi, in my mind.

 

I genuinely don't understand the direct comparisons that don't recognize that Black Widow is an established character that was in *seven* MCU films before it's standalone film, while Shang-Chi is a relative unknown just starting off. It's also opening in the mix of Delta variant in September, as opposed to the heart of summer. 

 

For me, adding in the PA numbers with the actual box office and saying that Black Widow's performance therefore highlights the strength of simultaneous PA, is an unpersuasive argument. Particularly given Black Widow's lack of staying power at the box office.

 

Then again, there are other factors to weigh, and I recognize I have an instinctual dislike of this simultaneous PA strategy, so perhaps I'm a wee bit biased. Either way, my sense is Shang-Chi's performance is a real win for theatrical exclusivity over simultaneous PA - and I think Shang-Chi's legs, particularly after this weekend, will further demonstrate that.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Black Widow performed reasonably well, but to the extent that it can be considered a disappointment...I think we have to factor in the timing of it. The entire world saw her die in Endgame, and now Marvel wants to move backwards in time for a side story that has little relevance to the current timeline as it stands? It was always going to be a hurdle to get folks interested enough to go to theaters in droves. 

 

There's also an argument to be made that she's not solo film material, although I disagree with that. 

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Fox20 Sleeper Hit

Fox20

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Black Widow performed reasonably well, but to the extent that it can be considered a disappointment...I think we have to factor in the timing of it. The entire world saw her die in Endgame, and now Marvel wants to move backwards in time for a side story that has little relevance to the current timeline as it stands? It was always going to be a hurdle to get folks interested enough to go to theaters in droves. 

 

There's also an argument to be made that she's not solo film material, although I disagree with that. 

I agree in part, but even after death the hype was huge, it got fucked by the circumstances and then getting sent to D+, it did ok but it's clearly a disappointment.

 

It does not help the movie was more setting up her replacement than a story about her.

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Black Widow performed reasonably well, but to the extent that it can be considered a disappointment...I think we have to factor in the timing of it. The entire world saw her die in Endgame, and now Marvel wants to move backwards in time for a side story that has little relevance to the current timeline as it stands? It was always going to be a hurdle to get folks interested enough to go to theaters in droves. 

 

There's also an argument to be made that she's not solo film material, although I disagree with that. 

 

That's a fair point. Black Widow didn't have the most ideal release strategy, even excluding the simultaneous PA.

 

That said, this is an established character that presumably people are invested in, and have become invested in, over the course of many years (over a decade, if I'm not mistaken) of MCU character and world building. To compare it directly to Shang-Chi's box office prospects, as if people would have the same anticipation and investment in it, among other reasons, seems unfair.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

If those are the final numbers for each - very close - it seems like a clear win for Shang Chi, in my mind.

 

I genuinely don't understand the direct comparisons that don't recognize that Black Widow is an established character that was in *seven* MCU films before it's standalone film, while Shang-Chi is a relative unknown just starting off. It's also opening in the mix of Delta variant in September, as opposed to the heart of summer. 

 

For me, adding in the PA numbers with the actual box office and saying that Black Widow's performance therefore highlights the strength of simultaneous PA, is an unpersuasive argument. Particularly given Black Widow's lack of staying power at the box office.

 

Then again, there are other factors to weigh, and I recognize I have an instinctual dislike of this simultaneous PA strategy, so perhaps I'm a wee bit biased. Either way, my sense is Shang-Chi's performance is a real win for theatrical exclusivity over simultaneous PA - and I think Shang-Chi's legs, particularly after this weekend, will further demonstrate that.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

I mean BW might've been hurt by a lack of quality. 

 

Jungle Cruise had much better legs and it also had PA.

 

Maybe BW's legs are because it's just not as good as Shang Chi.

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I mean BW might've been hurt by a lack of quality. 

 

Jungle Cruise had much better legs and it also had PA.

 

Maybe BW's legs are because it's just not as good as Shang Chi.

thats also one of the reasons...but i doubt that its the main one...

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wildphantom Box Office Gold

wildphantom

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

How is BW a disappointment when it's a mediocre movie that is currently the highest grossing movie in NA since the pandemic started.

 

All the talk about BW making 225-250m is pre-pandemic expectations.


it isn’t a disappointment at all. Agree with you. But I think it had way more potential for a huge domestic and worldwide gross than SC did.  But PA really hampered it. 
Without PA it would have challenged F9’s WW gross. Then had digital sales to look forward to post-theatrical, which it blew early on with PA. 

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I mean BW might've been hurt by a lack of quality. 

 

Jungle Cruise had much better legs and it also had PA.

 

Maybe BW's legs are because it's just not as good as Shang Chi.

 

Point taken. Though the film was overall critically well-received, etc, maybe not as much as your average MCU film (because MCU is so remarkably consistent in receiving strong critical reception). These things are rarely as black-and-white as we want them to seem.

 

Peace,

Mike

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How is BW a disappointment when it's a mediocre movie that is currently the highest grossing movie in NA since the pandemic started.

 

All the talk about BW making 225-250m is pre-pandemic expectations.

 

My intention, at least, is not to put down Black Widow, but to highlight Shang-Chi's success in the theatrical exclusive vs simultaneous PA debate. The perspective I've seen from some corners is that because Black Widow's box office and PA grosses likely will add up to a bit more than Shang-Chi's final box office gross, that this is therefore a cut-and-dry case of a win for simultaneous PA. I disagree, and think these numbers need to be understood in context.

 

Peace,
Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, wildphantom said:


it isn’t a disappointment at all. Agree with you. But I think it had way more potential for a huge domestic and worldwide gross than SC did.  But PA really hampered it. 
Without PA it would have challenged F9’s WW gross. Then had digital sales to look forward to post-theatrical, which it blew early on with PA. 

 

So 500m WW instead of 375m WW?

 

1) We don't know if the global revenue would increase that much.

 

2) BW's PA makes up the difference.

 

I'm not arguing against theater exclusives but I don't think the difference is that big for Disney between PA and theatrical exclusive.

 

 

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