SHANG CHI SECOND WEEKEND THREAD: 35.8M (-53%), DILF Leung Conquers #1 Spot | Free Guy 5.8, Malignant 5.6, Candyman 4.9, Jungle Cruise 2.4, Card Counter 1.1

[Legion Again]

Good news: now enough MCU movies to do kind of interesting regression with them  

 

Bad news: regression reveals the relationship between the 2nd Sat hold and the effective avg post-2nd week holds to be quite weak. Looking at all 24 previous movies, r^2 of .12 (suggests a 2nd week multi of 2.56x). Excluding summer, avengers subfranchise, and thor1 gives a still weak r^2 of .38 and a predicted 2nd week multi of 2.73.   

 

2nd week should be something like 45M let’s say. Then:

110+45*2.56 -> 225M

110+45*2.73 -> 233M   
 

But again the correlation is really too weak to put much stock in the results. My expert judgement (editor’s note: expert judgement means “gut”) says a 3x 2nd week multi is possible on the high end, so highly optimistic case maybe 110+48*3=254 and pessimistic say 110+44*2.4=215

Edited September 12, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores

[Legion Again]

Kind of want to investigate 3rd weekend hold vs post 3rd week legs now.

[charlie Jatinder]

I see we didn't had numbers today. Well the numbers I saw were very outdated just in morning but seeing those.

 

M will probably be 4.5M weekend while FG will get #2 at 5-5.25M weekend.

[Jamiem]

A lot of movies with good legs this year (probably due to smaller openings) 

 

Half of the top top 20 Domestic films so far with Free Guy, Old, Cruella, Jungle Cruise, Raya, GVK, Boss Baby, Tom and Jerry, AQPII and likely Shang-Chi all with 3x or greater multipliers from opening weekend. 

Edited September 12, 2021 by Jamiem

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

just in morning

Just to reiterate for people, these are not 4 AM nums. Could go like 12% off, not just like 2% off.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

A lot of movies with good legs this year (probably due to smaller openings) 

 

Half of the top top 20 Domestic films so far with Free Guy, Old, Cruella, Jungle Cruise, Raya, GVK, Boss Baby, Tom and Jerry, AQPII and likely Shang-Chi all with 3x or greater multipliers from opening weekend. 

Yeah looks like mix of reopeninga boosts, low competition, and summer weekdays.

[Legion Again]

3rd weekend hold vs holds thereafter is not  particularly strong correlation either, r^2 .41. Just eyeballing I feel a lot of the residuals can be explained by competition and holidays.   
 

Anyway suppose 35M 2nd weekend, 10M 2nd weekdays, 23M 3rd weekend, 6.5 3rd weekdays. Then we would have 29.5 3rd week (-34.4%) and the regression would suggest ~3.28x 3rd week multi for 155+29.5*3.28=252. That mostly matches my optimistic nums above, so let’s see if wk3 can hold up that well. If it is more like -45% than -35% that’s still fine, total low 220s or so.

[john2000]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I see we didn't had numbers today. Well the numbers I saw were very outdated just in morning but seeing those.

 

M will probably be 4.5M weekend while FG will get #2 at 5-5.25M weekend.

any numbers for shang ? last time i checked it was 15,5 for satur...but that was hours ago

[EmpireCity]

$15.4m

 

[Gavin Feng]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$15.4m

 

$10M for SUN possible?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

And you'll never see him coming...

[Madhuvan]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

$10M for SUN possible?

15.4 -> 10.01m(-35%)

 

so definetly possible. It will be close. 

[Legion Again]

Right on expectations, a strong drop from last Sat as already mentioned, 2nd strongest in the MCU. I think right around 10 is right for Sun. 
 

If either of you have any numbers on small movies in the next half hour or so I’d be quite interested — especially malignant, FG, and card counter.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I see we didn't had numbers today. Well the numbers I saw were very outdated just in morning but seeing those.

 

M will probably be 4.5M weekend while FG will get #2 at 5-5.25M weekend.

M got good walkins during the day. Good signs for future legs. 5.3-5.4M weekend.

 

SAT

SC - EC gave it (35-35.25M weekend)

FG - 2.58 / 100.07 (5.6M weekend)

C - 2.18M

M - 2.14 (5.4M weekend)

 

[Gavin Feng]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

M got good walkins during the day. Good signs for future legs. 5.3-5.4M weekend.

 

SAT

SC - EC gave it (35-35.25M weekend)

FG - 2.58 / 100.07 (5.6M weekend)

C - 2.18M

M - 2.14 (5.4M weekend)

 

wait, FG is at 2nd place this week?

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

wait, FG is at 2nd place this week?

 

On 9/11/2021 at 3:07 AM, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Can Malignant debut in 3rd or 4th? Between being on max and divisive reaction I suppose it could go as low as 5 or so. FG would probably need 1.2+ Fri to target that and Candy maybe 1.5.

😎

[Legion Again]

I won’t be shocked if FG is #2 next week either, though probably 3 or 4 is more likely.

[charlie Jatinder]

Malignant could have been a sleeper hit if it wasn't streaming and had somewhat decent pre-release buzz. Ideally Sunday would drop 40%+ for it, but if it can drop just 30% that will be solid trend, and may claim #2.

[ThomasNicole]

Malignant is trending for 3 days straight and still will debut with 5M maximum it seems.

 

I hate Warner this year, not only because of HBO Max but because they didn't do the basic anymore.

 

Idk if they though everyone will hate this movie but liking it or not people is talking about it, something that only a few movies manage this year. I just can't believe they simply didn't promote it, this could've easily pull an Hereditary (good debut and surprisingly great legs despite Bad Cinemascore because people can't stop talking about it).

[ThomasNicole]

Well at least SC will drop only 53% coming of a holiday, so great news, we're finally getting our +200M movie.

 

Very curious for 3rd weekend, then we'll know if we're heading to an expected 215-220M finish or if have a shot at 250M.