von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Examples of European legs for Dune (estimates): Multiplier Total OW 5.1 6 1.18 Netherlands 5.1 22.5 4.44 Germany 3.9 9.5 2.46 Spain 3.7 26.5 7.21 France 3.6 9 2.5 Italy UK lands probably between Italy and Spain on the list like France. Then comparing that to US legs gives a fair ballpark to estimate HBO Max effect to legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, von Kenni said: Examples of European legs for Dune (estimates): Multiplier Total OW 5.1 6 1.18 Netherlands 5.1 22.5 4.44 Germany 3.9 9.5 2.46 Spain 3.7 26.5 7.21 France 3.6 9 2.5 Italy UK lands probably between Italy and Spain on the list like France. Then comparing that to US legs gives a fair ballpark to estimate HBO Max effect to legs. That’ll be messed up because we’ve had a holiday all week here in the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Krissykins said: That’ll be messed up because we’ve had a holiday all week here in the UK. I'm sure that can be adjusted one way or another enough to keep the comparison hold true. E.g. Gravity, Interstellar, Martian were released with close by time frames in the fall so we can make baselines with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 @EmpireCity Do you have Thursday number for Dune? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Scott Mendelson's today's story he states that total cume is currently $53.8m. Not knowing his complete suite of daily numbers but point even just $2.2m for Thursday which would be a huge crash, but also totally inconsistent with other days... I hope it's not right. Anything below $2.6m would be awful at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Halloween Kills down only 1% on Thursday. Last week it fell 13%. Halloween bump beginning early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, von Kenni said: Scott Mendelson's today's story he states that total cume is currently $53.8m. Not knowing his complete suite of daily numbers but point even just $2.2m for Thursday which would be a huge crash, but also totally inconsistent with other days... I hope it's not right. Anything below $2.6m would be awful at this point. Which means Wednesday number was wrong. Its stupid on WB to not reporting dailies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said: Which means Wednesday number was wrong. Its stupid on WB to not reporting dailies. Yes, because NTTD dropped just 0% (or 1%) too. Doesn't make sense Dune suddenly crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, von Kenni said: Scott Mendelson's today's story he states that total cume is currently $53.8m. Not knowing his complete suite of daily numbers but point even just $2.2m for Thursday which would be a huge crash, but also totally inconsistent with other days... I hope it's not right. Anything below $2.6m would be awful at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Probably WED was smaller than reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Scott Mendelson Yesterday: Dune passed $50 million domestic on day six with a $3.1 million (-21% from Tuesday) Wednesday gross. It’ll end its first week with $54 million Today: The good news is that the film has earned $53.8 million in eight days, a decent 1.31x weekend-to-cume multiplier. That Wednesday number is in line with what EmpireCity reported for Tuesday ($3.9m). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Well, fishy numbers would explain why Dune would get Gravity level and better than NTTD weekday numbers. With NTTD numbers would have been: Tue $3.78m, Wed $3.03m, Thu $2.6m which would still get about $0.2m over $51.87m. I guess we know on Monday the actual numbers, or someday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 if Thursday is $2.2M the weekend won't be more than $14M... Ahother shitty second weekend for Warner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exomassey Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) So what then is the estimated Mon-Thurs breakdown with the number being $53.87m? Edited October 29, 2021 by exomassey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 wb should start reporting dailies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, exomassey said: So what then is the estimated Mon-Thurs breakdown with the number being $53.87m? Hard to say if we cannot trust any of the numbers. IF all the previous numbers from Scott & EmpireCity are accurate, then it would be something like: 3.65 - 3.9 - 3.1 - 2.22 or 3.65 - 3.85 - 3.05 - 2.32, still hard to believe to the Thu drop if otherwise have been consistent with others. Hard to estimate weekend drop without knowing the true weekday numbers but the lower than expected weekday total would lover the weekend estimate in any case. Instead of the 50-55% drop estimate I'd put it around $15.8-17.9m, 56-61% drop. But wouldn't trust my new model as much as the previous without knowing those exact weekday numbers. Gut tells to keep it cool and go for 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronin46 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, von Kenni said: Hard to say if we cannot trust any of the numbers. IF all the previous numbers from Scott & EmpireCity are accurate, then it would be something like: 3.65 - 3.9 - 3.1 - 2.22 or 3.65 - 3.85 - 3.05 - 2.32, still hard to believe to the Thu drop if otherwise have been consistent with others. Hard to estimate weekend drop without knowing the true weekday numbers but the lower than expected weekday total would lover the weekend estimate in any case. Instead of the 50-55% drop estimate I'd put it around $15.8-17.9m, 56-61% drop. But wouldn't trust my new model as much as the previous without knowing those exact weekday numbers. Gut tells to keep it cool and go for 19. BoPro 18.4M projection| total 73.4M indicating 55M for Thursday BoReport 17M projection| total 70.9M indicating 53.9M for Thursday BoReport was bang on with there figure of actuals. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ronin46 said: BoPro 18.4M projection| total 73.4M indicating 55M for Thursday BoReport 17M projection| total 70.9M indicating 53.9M for Thursday BoReport was bang on with there figure of actuals. I guess they know more and in light of this that 17 weekend projection is probably close. Would mean 58.5% drop which would be very good already and almost the same as with NTTD's 2nd weekend drop of 56.9%. Anything below 60% is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, titanic2187 said: PLF losses and old people avoiding "openers Thursday" could explain a terrible Thursday, I guess... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronin46 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, von Kenni said: I guess they know more and in light of this that 17 weekend projection is probably close. Would mean 58.5% drop which would be very good already and almost the same as with NTTD's 2nd weekend drop of 56.9%. Anything below 60% is a win. Could just be an anomaly but if they were basing it off Empires numbers on Mon/Tue etc then they would really not get to 53.9 so I think they have a source at WB to be that accurate. I have not checked there other WB numbers before as the other WB movies were so low so it was pointless. I will keep my eye on it in the future. 17M would be fine. I was initially thinking 16m last week so 17 is fine but a little disappointing for where it looked like it might be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
