⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[JustLurking]

I'd be more than happy with 550, as much as I love Villeneuve I think there is a hard cap on where his slower style of filmmaking can click with people

[Wotad]

4 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I'd be more than happy with 550, as much as I love Villeneuve I think there is a hard cap on where his slower style of filmmaking can click with people

550/600m I think is a safe bet but I hope it does that or higher. 

 

Film 1 was sort of slow but Dune 2 looks to be a bit faster

Edited January 27 by Wotad

[Wotad]

On 1/26/2024 at 3:53 AM, M37 said:

Those would be some pretty strong legs 

 

For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else)

 

I think it has a pretty clear release though compared to those films, I think it will have pretty nice legs if WOM is better than the first film which I guess is a who-knows situation. I do think it's going to be more action so could help with the legs. 

 

Dune 2 has a month of intense promo coming up will give a better picture

Edited January 27 by Wotad

[M37]

57 minutes ago, Wotad said:

 

I think it has a pretty clear release though compared to those films, I think it will have pretty nice legs if WOM is better than the first film which I guess is a who-knows situation. I do think it's going to be more action so could help with the legs. 

 

Dune 2 has a month of intense promo coming up will give a better picture

I think there is solid rationale, both with the IMAX draw (where limited capacity naturally rolls demand forward) and fairly weak competition, for being optimistic about a higher end multi result, in the 2-2.20x OWeek range (or roughly 2.6-2.9x OW).

 

... but beyond that is getting to true outlier range. Frankly, not much different than what I tried to tell y'all about Wonka, which currently stands at $189M, and should stroll its way past $200M in a couple of weeks

 

Every time I see a $250-$300M final domestic projection, I be like

 

Edited January 27 by M37

[emoviefan]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think there is solid rationale, both with the IMAX draw (where limited capacity naturally rolls demand forward) and fairly weak competition, for being optimistic about a higher end multi result, in the 2-2.20x OWeek range (or roughly 2.6-2.9x OW).

 

... but beyond that is getting to true outlier range. Frankly, not much different than what I tried to tell y'all about Wonka, which currently stands at $189M, and should stroll its way past $200M in a couple of weeks

 

Every time I see a $250-$300M final domestic projection, I be like

 

Been saying this. Putting the burden on movies to outperform their reasonable expectations only leads to disappointment. Anything thing above 150 DOM and 450+ WW would be just fine this.  And I am thinking more like 175-200 and 550-650 is possible. 

[HummingLemon496]

$10m preview, $70m OW, $200m DOM

[HummingLemon496]

$200m DOM and $600m WW on a $122m budget would be pretty amazing. The increase domestically will be bigger than the increase overseas (percentage wise) because of HBO Max. 

Edited January 28 by HummingLemon496

[Firepower]

22 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Anything thing above 150 DOM and 450+ WW would be just fine this.

I'm pretty sure 450 WW is not enough for a movie with 200 mln production budget, it doesn't have covid and hybrid release excuses anymore. 450 would kill Dune Messiah. But 600+ would be enough I suppose.

Edited January 28 by Firepower

[Merkel]

So the last two posts above this throw budgets of 122 million and 200 million for this. Which one is it?

 

122 million seems quite low for the scale this seems to have (plus the stacked cast), but Arrival only cost 47 million, so Villeneuve seems the kind of director who can make the most out of a budget

[Last Man Standing]

Norway are doing it right.

[Last Man Standing]

 

[Firepower]

4 hours ago, Merkel said:

So the last two posts above this throw budgets of 122 million and 200 million for this. Which one is it?

 

122 million seems quite low for the scale this seems to have (plus the stacked cast), but Arrival only cost 47 million, so Villeneuve seems the kind of director who can make the most out of a budget

200 mln, first Dune cost 165 mln and this one has bigger scale, more action, big cast and higher paychecks.  It would be impossible to make this movie for 122 mln today, so idk where 122 mln came from.

[Last Man Standing]

New (?) TV spot. Any chance it'll be shown during the Superbowl?

[von Kenni]

Is there any solid info on the budget?

 

Quick googling gives that $122m which makes sense a bit to be smaller than the Part One $165m reflecting the overall financial success of Part One, I.e. from studio perspective and that legendary didn't get such an upside in China as they expected.

 

Also, the VFX libraries and some of the props and sets are already established plus the actors aren't demanding so much for this as there likely market value. The deal isn't as good as Tom Cruise asking $30m for Iron Man 1 and RDJ doing it for $2.5m but still.

 

And as said here, Villeneuve has been effective with his budgets (the last Thor director being at the other end of the spectrum).

 

All that said, $122m sounds still low. With $150m maybe and $165m for sure.

 

Any bona-fide sources for this?

[Valonqar]

I don't believe in 122M but it likely isn't 222M either. In any case it's going to outgross the first one by a lot.

[TwoMisfits]

As a reminder, Dune 2 will have a minimum 45 day exclusive theatrical...so it will be around only theatrically for all Spring Breaks and Easter...no "family holiday movie at home" for this movie.

 

I'm feeling mini Oppy/Avatar 2 vibes for this movie - just a fanbase that will continue to watch this movie in premium formats week after week after week...and I don't think Dune 2 gives up the IMAX format for weeks?  Right?

 

Again, NOT my wheelhouse, not my type of movie...but well, if this movie doesn't break at least into the M37's "no go" zone DOM, I'll be surprised.  I don't want to say it will break higher than the "no go" zone (aka $325M+)...but Mar 1 to Mar 31 (Easter) is a long time to keep building a box office...

[Warmaster506]

A good run coming up for this film.

 

Expect loads of meltdowns 

[keysersoze123]

I dont think the 1st movie is the ideal comp for it was a hybrid release. This one will explode once reviews are out for sure. Plus the market place would be dead at that time. Madame Web would bomb and Marley will collapse after a good OD. Its as good a release date as any big movie has had in recent times. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think the 1st movie is the ideal comp for it was a hybrid release. This one will explode once reviews are out for sure. Plus the market place would be dead at that time. Madame Web would bomb and Marley will collapse after a good OD. Its as good a release date as any big movie has had in recent times. 

Yeah I have been trying to be cautious on it's potential so as not to be disappointed if it does not break out big but seeing TV spots during the football games today my hype is exploding. Everybody involved is saying this is much more action packed and exciting  and those TV spots deliver that potential.

[HummingLemon496]

Thoughts?