CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!

[Dementeleus]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

At the end of the day, the back and forth between those who are right and those who are wrong will be obvious in about 2 weeks. Will the champions of NWH like @Menor @john2000 @Eternal Legion and myself be able to defeat the curmudgeons of incorrectness?!? Tune in next time to find out!

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

That fans can get super amped up and wildly over-predict. 

Yeah, I still remember those silly overpredictions of IW outopening  TFA and Endgame getting 300. What a blunder by the BoT marvel hive mind 🙄

[john2000]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

At the end of the day, the back and forth between those who are right and those who are wrong will be obvious in about 2 weeks. Will the champions of NWH like @Menor @john2000 @Eternal Legion and myself be able to defeat the curmudgeons of incorrectness?!? Tune in next time to find out!

[baumer]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Because the hype/interest for this is several multiples beyond FFH. You keep making that comparison while failing to note the obvious difference in the interest we've seen for it so far. 

Venom just did $90M. The idea that a film that IS MORE HYPED THAN ENDGAME would only beat V2 by 10-20% is frankly an odd take and almost some kind of strange denial at this point. 

All I can say is, prepare to have the hell shocked out.

 

 

And you're basing this on what?

[Dementeleus]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[Cooper Legion]

Ultimately though, I must thank the curmudgeons. It’s going to make it much more satisfying when it pulls fairly predictable numbers that they are way past certain predictions, compared to a world where everybody agreed it was doing 170-220 or so and then it did.

[john2000]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by john2000

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Plain Old Tele said:

You guys are insufferable. Do you not understand the concept of different opinions? That’s literally all we have to go on right now. 

Of course we understand the concept of different opinions, but “how much will NWH open to” is not some purely subjective personal preference like “what is your favorite number.” There are facts and historical data that have pretty significant bearing on what the plausible range of numbers is.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, baumer said:

 

And you're basing this on what?

 

The more hype than Endgame part? 

Trailer views 20% larger than Endgames. Twitter trailer likes 50% higher than Endgames. The freaking poster has nearly as many likes as the Endgame trailer!

Not to mention all the trending buzz, the amount of people (anecdotally) I've talked to telling me this will be the first thing they go to the theaters to see. 

Hell, my 72 year old mother who just finished chemo/radiation told me she wants to see it Friday morning (but not Thursday because she doesn't want to go out at night.)

 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

You guys are insufferable. Do you not understand the concept of different opinions? That’s literally all we have to go on right now. 

I mean arent we all just have fun at the end of the day ? As for opinions i am all in for different opinions , as long as wee use some facts for example compare a tuesday ow vs a friday ow doesnt really make sense.

Edited November 13, 2021 by john2000

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The more hype than Endgame part? 

Trailer views 20% larger than Endgames. Twitter trailer likes 50% higher than Endgames. The freaking poster has nearly as many likes as the Endgame trailer!

Not to mention all the trending buzz, the amount of people (anecdotally) I've talked to telling me this will be the first thing they go to the theaters to see. 

Hell, my 72 year old mother who just finished chemo/radiation told me she wants to see it Friday morning (but not Thursday because she doesn't want to go out at night.)

 

Btw, the trailer view growth vs Endgame was actually pretty pathetic for a 2,5 year difference. It is definitely not more hyped, in any way (as a basic common sense sanity check would tell you all along).

[Deep Wang]

19 minutes ago, baumer said:

Why though, do you all think this is going to do so much more than the last Spidey when that one was coming right on the coat-tails of End Game?  And I've been saying this for months now....we are not out of the pandemic.  Ask RTH or any of the other Gurus here, the theatres in Canada are struggling....at least here in Ontario.  IMHO, which has known to be wrong from time to time, 200 mill is next to impossible.  150 mill would shock the hell out of me.  

 

It's one of the most popular superheroes of all time, in a currently popular trilogy.   The idea that it's barely going to beat BW/SC in previews is just CRAZY to me  🤣

 

It's entirely plausible I and many others are overestimating the appeal of the *ahem* multiverse, I get it.  Obviously not saying I am right and you are wrong, it's just going to be fun to watch unfold!
 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Btw, the trailer view growth vs Endgame was actually pretty pathetic for a 2,5 year difference. It is definitely not more hyped, in any way (as a basic common sense sanity check would tell you all along).

 

On what data do you base this statement? 

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Guys i will repeat again myself, the trailer views arent always right thats true but the fact is that you cant just have your teaser hit 355 mill views in 24 or your poster for fucks shake on twitter and have 560k likes and have a ow of "only" 100-140" ....... i would be shocked if it only did that much.Had the hype being lower then i would agree but this movie is pure monstrosity in terms of buzz...

These trailer numbers have little value to BO. BTW how do you get this 355m views. They could put it on auto play in a twitter feed to pump up these numbers. I look at official Sony channel and its at 76 million now. While that is strong we have had many trailers do way bigger numbers. Infinity war trailer has 250 million views for example. 

[Cap]

Lol, boys. It’s just a movie and a contest. The world will not end if it makes 100m OW. And it is will not be Utopia if it makes 300m OW. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I look at official Sony channel and its at 76 million now. While that is strong we have had many trailers do way bigger numbers. Infinity war trailer has 250 million views for example. 

 

IW has 250 million views now. How many did it has after the being out 2 months? The first Endgame trailer only has 106 million views on YT, and wasn't even at 70 million at the same point in time. 

And it's not like anyone is calling for this thing to hit Endgame OW numbers. The fact that the trailer is roughly 3x higher than SC's or Eternals was before they opened is a more direct/current comparison if you wanted to go that route. 

[baumer]

Let's make one thing perfectly clear. I love movies, I love a healthy box office I love to see movies do well. Me predicting that it will do less than 120 million has nothing to do with hating on Spider-Man. I think I've actually liked 80% of the films that have come out in the series. I even like Spider-Man 3. Hell I was one of the only ones who like The amazing Spider-Man part 2. I would love to see this movie do well however I just don't think we are back to those kind of levels that can support the kind of numbers you guys are talking about. It has nothing to do with hate I'm just basing it on what I see.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

These trailer numbers have little value to BO. BTW how do you get this 355m views. They could put it on auto play in a twitter feed to pump up these numbers. I look at official Sony channel and its at 76 million now. While that is strong we have had many trailers do way bigger numbers. Infinity war trailer has 250 million views for example. 

And we also has avengers endgame teaser with 105 mill views, and lion king with 75 mill views and a 191 mill ow....anyways i wont try to change your mind , we agree to disagree  , you maybe wrong and i maaybe wrong.In my point of view these trailer views and the buzzmania that has followed since makes me think that this can hit 200 mill ow......we will know soon enough i guess...

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It's one of the most popular superheroes of all time, in a currently popular trilogy.   The idea that it's barely going to beat BW/SC in previews is just CRAZY to me  🤣

 

It's entirely plausible I and many others are overestimating the appeal of the *ahem* multiverse, I get it.  Obviously not saying I am right and you are wrong, it's just going to be fun to watch unfold!
 

BW had crazy strong PS start. After all she has been in all Avengers movies and this is most likely the last time she is playing the character. Look at how big Far from Home opened and why is it crazy to expect NWH to not have that much higher previews than BW. 

 

That said I am not predicting any previews until I have few days PS data. So I am not playing this game. TO hit 30 milion previews it needs to do 10m at MTC1 and 5 million at MTC2. That wont be easy. We will know in few weeks time if PS is starting only end of this month. With a short PS window, it has to start strong and keep pace most of the run.