The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This chat look more like a Marvel Fandom than a box office prediction. 

 

I can change that quick 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

If true, this movie really needs great of WOM and good-to-great reviews to pack in the crowds. 

Not really. Since its opening in $110-140M range, even the worst of legs will see it do $225M+. Need just another $180M overseas to recover the budget theatrically & then there's a lot of non theatrical revenue at plate. 

[excel1]

50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not really. Since its opening in $110-140M range, even the worst of legs will see it do $225M+. Need just another $180M overseas to recover the budget theatrically & then there's a lot of non theatrical revenue at plate. 

 

dude it isn't opening to $110m unless opening weekend ends sometime Saturday 

[Eric S'ennui]

On 2/13/2022 at 12:09 AM, Eric Poirot said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	449	10285	4.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.347x of F9 T-5 (2.46M)

0.879x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (3.6M)

0.353x of Venom 2 T-5 (4.1M)

0.560x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-5 (2.52M)

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	489	10285	4.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp

0.349x of F9 T-4 (2.48M)

0.807x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (3.31M)

0.343x of Venom 2 T-4 (3.97M)

0.548x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-4 (2.46M)

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	47	39	5,126
Seats Added	133	9,735	3,506	900,107
Seats Sold	6,150	6,173	19,131	65,150
2/13/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,215	96,604	913,481	10.58%

 

 

ATP

$17.39

 

 

 

 

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric Poirot said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	177	4219	35067	12.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 221

 

Comp

0.556x of Black Widow's Final Count (7.33M)

0.888x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (7.81M)

0.805x of Venom 2's Final Count (9.34M)

0.800x of Eternals' Final Count (7.6M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.321x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-19 (12.86M)

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	178	4360	35175	12.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 141

 

Comp

0.574x of Black Widow's Final Count (7.58M)

0.918x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (8.08M)

0.832x of Venom 2's Final Count (9.65M)

0.826x of Eternals' Final Count (7.85M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.329x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-18 (13.17M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	28906	32298	3392	10.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

157

 

Day 3 Unadjusted Comps 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	277.81		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		26.39m
NWH	22.22		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		11.11m

 

Day 3 Adjusted Comp 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	215.69		185	1498		0/104	16688/18186	8.24%		29.81m
Bats (BW adj)	---		146	3231		0/197	23161/26392	12.24%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Tuesday Sales:        644/815     [79.02% sold]     [+7 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   874/1301   [67.18% sold]   [+16 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    1874/30182   [6.21% sold] [+134 tickets]

---

Regal:  917/10475  [8.75% sold] [+24 tickets]

Matinee: 132/4799 [2.75% | 3.89% of all tickets sold]

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	28780	32298	3518	10.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

126

 

T-18 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	226.97		71	1550		0/96	13991/15541	9.97%		21.56m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Eternals tickets had been on sale for seven days at this point while The Batman has been on sale for six/four days (two days of those days were "Fan First" only ticket sales).

 

T-18 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	159.76		92	2095		0/117	17035/19130	10.95%		22.08m
Bats (BW adj)	---		116	3347		0/197	23045/26392	12.68%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow tickets had been on sale for ten days at this point while The Batman has been on sale for six/four days (two days of those days were "Fan First" only ticket sales).

 

Tuesday Sales:        643/815     [78.09% sold]     [-1 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   895/1301   [68.79% sold]   [+21 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    1980/30182   [6.56% sold] [+106 tickets]

---

Regal:  967/10475  [9.23% sold] [+50 tickets]

Matinee: 144/4799 [3.00% | 4.09% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

Even though I'm losing NWH for a day, shifted over to T-x comps tonight as I think it makes more sense right now, hence the pretty hefty hit in comps.  NWH returns tomorrow, as little good as it does now.  Now let's see where it stabilizes this week as the "pre-sale lull" approaches.

[Legion Again]

The pace ratio seem to be below the cum ratio? In which case those fell from T-19 comps, despite being day 4. Not good, though can always hope for a strong review bump/final week/etc etc.

 

Edit: I wonder if SB materially affects daily PS — Jul 4 definitely did iirc, kind of similar.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

The pace ratio seem to be below the cum ratio? In which case those fell from T-19 comps, despite being day 4. Not good, though can always hope for a strong review bump/final week/etc etc.

 

Wellllll, I do wonder if the Superb Owl had any effect locally or not as even though the Rams haven't been in LA that long and Nor Cal and So Cal aren't exactly bosom buddies, I do think there might have been more of a hit to non-football entertainment here than, say, Philly.

 

Then again, Sacto has been behind Philly's pace since Day One, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

 

FWIW, it could have been much worse barring a couple of group sales that were made today.  Just starting to think that for whatever reason, Sacramento might be late to the party here (haven't analyzed Denver's numbers quite enough to get a solid grasp on them so I don't know how exactly it's doing there).

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Wellllll, I do wonder if the Superb Owl had any effect locally or not as even though the Rams haven't been in LA that long and Nor Cal and So Cal aren't exactly bosom buddies, I do think there might have been more of a hit to non-football entertainment here than, say, Philly.

 

Then again, Sacto has been behind Philly's pace since Day One, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

 

FWIW, it could have been much worse barring a couple of group sales that were made today.  Just starting to think that for whatever reason, Sacramento might be late to the party here (haven't analyzed Denver's numbers quite enough to get a solid grasp on them so I don't know how exactly it's doing there).

 

As a side note, I did realize as I was compiling this tonight, that this is only the second large DC movie I've tracked locally*.  I can't recall why now, but I never tracked Aquaman (I THINK its wonky pre-sale/super early access showing rollout + long range forecast for it deterred me) and Joker hella under-performed here.

* I did track The Suicide Squad, but at around 4m, that has its own problems - though see my last minute thoughts below.

 

At the time, I thought the overall vibe (not to mention background controversy) of Joker and Sacto just didn't mix.  But maybe this is more of a Marvel-stan region than DC.  I personally wouldn't think so, given the wide variety of blockbusters that have performed well here.   But the relative difference between Sacto and Philly is starting to give me pause.

 

It's PROBABLY "just one of those things" and it'll clear itself out in time (random variation gonna be random).  It is something I'm starting to look at though... just in case.

 

....

 

LATE ADDITION TO THIS POST BEFORE I HIT SUBMIT POST

 

Come to think of it, The Suicide Squad also under-performed locally (comp came in at 3.5m more or less and the preview number was 4.1m).  At the time, I though it was just wonkiness from a $4m opener. Plus I just mentally blew off the difference between 3.5m and 4.1m.  But now...

 

...

 

Eh.  Still probably random variation.  But now I'm starting to wonder. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Porthos

[Notthereverseflash24]

https://twitter.com/TheBatmanFilm_/status/1493158512381280257?t=-T6Bsht4uHFF21yDTbOUhg&s=19

 

Looks like The Batman is releasing in China

Edited February 14, 2022 by Notthereverseflash24

[Dragoncaine]

4 hours ago, Notthereverseflash24 said:

https://twitter.com/TheBatmanFilm_/status/1493158512381280257?t=-T6Bsht4uHFF21yDTbOUhg&s=19

 

Looks like The Batman is releasing in China

Wild that they made this happen. Fingers crossed for a March release

[BruiseCruise]

So maybe JW Dom and Avatar 2 will get releases over there

[XXR & Friends]

5 hours ago, Notthereverseflash24 said:

https://twitter.com/TheBatmanFilm_/status/1493158512381280257?t=-T6Bsht4uHFF21yDTbOUhg&s=19

 

Looks like The Batman is releasing in China

 

30 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Wild that they made this happen. Fingers crossed for a March release

 

13 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

So maybe JW Dom and Avatar 2 will get releases over there

Lets take all of this out of the tracking thread. 

[Tinalera]

Okay I guess I lied about getting to Uncharted numbers on the weekend lol. Will get some today. Capacity Limits being removed Feb 17 for the theatres yay, and it sounds like all restrictions except masks being lifted March 1(yes that includes vacc requirements-which I think is a huge boon to the theatres....and say doesn't some movie open first weekend in March...Bat-person or something.....anyway. Going to get uncharted going for the opening, though numbers will be weird because 50 percent capacity sales till Thursday when 100 percent capacity sales hit-will be kind of weird)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/11/2022 at 12:31 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-3	Dog (EA)	Jacksonville	4	4	318	33	33	10.38%
		Phoenix	3	3	303	21	21	6.93%
		Raleigh	5	5	522	49	49	9.39%
	Dog (EA) Total		12	12	1,143	103	103	9.01%
T-6	Dog	Jacksonville	6	15	1,440	29	29	2.01%
		Phoenix	6	15	1,813	6	6	0.33%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,644	11	11	0.67%
	Dog Total		20	46	4,897	46	46	0.94%
T-6	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	46	7,536	191	23	2.53%
		Phoenix	6	21	4,242	189	19	4.46%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,637	151	12	4.15%
	Uncharted Total		19	93	15,415	531	54	3.44%

 

Big update, even after dropping three movies.  

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - 1.25x (5.123m)

(Missed T-6 updates for NTTD and Dune)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Dog (EA)	Jacksonville	4	4	318	118	118	37.11%
		Phoenix	3	3	303	52	52	17.16%
		Raleigh	5	5	522	102	102	19.54%
	Dog (EA) Total		12	12	1,143	272	272	23.80%
T-3	Dog	Jacksonville	6	15	1,440	32	32	2.22%
		Phoenix	6	15	1,813	17	17	0.94%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,644	26	26	1.58%
	Dog Total		20	46	4,897	75	75	1.53%
T-3	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	46	7,536	225	225	2.99%
		Phoenix	6	21	4,242	237	237	5.59%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,637	214	214	5.88%
	Uncharted Total		19	93	15,415	676	676	4.39%

 

Dog (Thu) comp

Marry Me - .82x (428k)

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - 1.1x (4.49m)

Dune - .573x (2.92m)

Free Guy - 2.216x (4.88m)

Average - 4.1m

[el sid]

Uncharted, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 208 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 120 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 32 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 22 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 39 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 188 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 259 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 868.
Up 32% since last Tuesday. Just not good.

Comps: Dune had also on Monday of it's release week 1.858 sold tickets for Thursday,

TSS had 1.385

and Sonic's final sales number was 1.120.
 

Uncharted, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 193 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 134 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 55 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 26 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 152 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 141 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 715.
Up 75% since last Tuesday. Well, that's better.

Comps: Dune had also on Monday of it's release week 2.621 sold tickets for Friday,

TSS had 940 (means Uncharted is at 76% at the moment but had a better weekly jump till today than TSS),

Jungle Cruise had 357 (but good jumps till Thursday)

and Sonic's final sales number was 2.103 (still not impossible to reach).

 

I don't rule out yet that it will have more than 25M OW but it needs good jumps over the next days.

Dog had for its Sneak Previews today 55 sold tickets in 5 theaters (with 1 showtime in each theater). If I add the AMCs Barton Creek and Mesa Grand it would be 82 sold tickets.
Therefore that it's Monday and Idk where the connection to Valentine's is that's quite ok I guess. The sales in the sole theaters looked very even so this doesn't seem to be a film only for the coasts or in between.

The Cursed unfortunately had only 4 sold tickets for Friday with showtimes in 5 theaters.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Malignant had 100 sold tickets in 6 theaters, The Night House 24 in 5 and Antlers 43 in 7.
I expected The Cursed to do better (and IMO the trailer has a nice creepy atmosphere). But I also thought it would be a limited release (that's what BOM and other websites say). So maybe I'm not the only one who didn't know that it's coming to more theaters.

Edited February 14, 2022 by el sid

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal (local) 5:30pm

 

Uncharted:  29/1863

Dog:  3/765

Cursed:  10/512

 

Uncharted Comp:

Ghostbusters: $3.65m

 

(Freefall & Jungle Cruise each only sold about 4 tickets before Wed. I didn't track JC after that but FF sold 20 on Wed, 55 on Thur)

 

Curse Comps: (all over the place- so useless so far)

Candyman: $2.375m

Scream $.411m

Halloween Kills $.81m

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal (Local) 5:30pm

 

BATMAN (Day 4)

 

WED (RPX) - 93/320   (+32 since first 24 hours)

THUR (Total) 128/4814  (+6)
 - (RPX) - 101/960
-  (2D)   - 27/3854

 

So, not a lot of movement so far and it's obvious most of the die hards are targeting Wed right now

 

 

Eternals - Day 3:  109/1753

Shang Chi - Day 5:  57/1402

Endgame - Day 4:  2,928/3,994  ()

Didn't track SM again until Day 8

 

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/12/2022 at 4:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

415

3112

13.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

234

3405

6.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 30 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1365	249	29007	4.71%	14	187

 

AMCs sold	1112
Cinemarks sold	61
Regals sold	105
Harkins sold	87

 

Tuesday:

Total

991

25

1428

Wednesday:

Total

358

44

917

Overall:

Grand Total

2714

318

31352

 

0.28x NWH Day 3 sales(13.98M)

2.68x Eternals T-19 sales(25.43M)

2.00x Black Widow T-19 sales(26.40M)

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

496

3112

15.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

266

3405

7.81%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1626	261	29053	5.60%	14	188

 

AMCs sold	1311
Cinemarks sold	70
Regals sold	147
Harkins sold	98

 

Tuesday:

Total

1008

17

1428

Wednesday:

Total

397

39

917

Overall:

Grand Total

3031

317

31398

 

0.287x NWH Day 5 sales(14.33M)

2.68x Eternals T-17 sales(25.48M)

2.09x Black Widow T-17 sales(27.57M)