The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/11/2022 at 3:26 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Batman Harkins T-21 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	334	82,421	844	1.02%	$9,431	$11.17
Cine 1	30	9,012	1,115	12.37%	$17,649	$15.83
Cine Capri	6	2,673	98	3.67%	$1,416	$14.45
IMAX	3	1,335	280	20.97%	$4,480	$16.00
Total	373	95,441	2,337	2.45%	$32,976	$14.11
EA Cine1	10	3,004	1,063	35.39%	$16,987	$15.98
EA Cine Capri	1	300	131	43.67%	$1,965	$15.00
EA IMAX	1	445	387	86.97%	$6,192	$16.00
Total	12	3,749	1,581	42.17%	$25,144	$15.90
Grand Total	385	99,190	3,918	3.95%	$58,120	$14.83

 

First off 385 shows. The fuck. Anyways, the early access shows are selling well as they should. THU previews are quite good for PLFs as well but regular screenings are not that hot.

 

As for comps, I am gonna use admits since ATP aren't perfect yet as I corrected some of them but some are of NWH rates. Not much diffs though.

 

3.83x of Eternals first day of sales - $36.4M

2.79x of Eternals T-21 days - $26.5M

0.13x of Spider-man: No Way Home first day of sales - $6.63M 

 

LOL. NWH numbers are joke man. Eternals T-21 days comp seems quite reasonable. FWIW roughly 1600 seats from early screenings are 3 days sales. Of course $26M is still inflated, Batman being higher level of film than Eternals, but Eternals had bigger start than what it eventually did i.e. $9.5M.  Next few days will give us better idea.

The Batman Harkins T-14 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	338	82,881	1,431	1.73%	$15,997	$11.18
Cine 1	30	9,012	1,671	18.54%	$26,157	$15.65
Cine Capri	6	2,673	165	6.17%	$2,373	$14.38
IMAX	3	1,335	379	28.39%	$6,064	$16.00
Total	377	95,901	3,646	3.80%	$50,591	$13.88
EA Cine1	10	3,004	1,762	58.66%	$27,730	$15.74
EA Cine Capri	1	300	193	64.33%	$2,895	$15.00
EA IMAX	1	445	399	89.66%	$6,384	$16.00
Total	12	3,749	2,354	62.79%	$37,009	$15.72
Grand Total	389	99,650	6,000	6.02%	$87,600	$14.60

 

 

Sold 1309 seats for THU and 873 for Early access screenings in last 7 days.

 

Comps

2.82x of Eternals T-14 days - $26.79M

2.14x of Black Widow T-14 days - $29M

0.17x of Spider-man: No Way Home T-14 days - $8.67M

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	280	30855	34778	3923	11.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

111

 

T-15 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	208.34		127	1883		0/96	13658/15541	12.12%		19.79m
NWH	25.69		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		12.85m

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	155.90		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		21.54m
Bats (BW adj)	---		100	3712		0/229	25160/28872	12.86%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Tuesday Sales:        654/815     [80.25% sold]  [+1 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   959/1301   [73.71% sold] [+16 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    2310/30182  [7.07% sold]  [+94 tickets]

---

Regal:  1047/10475  [10.00% sold] [+30 tickets]

Matinee: 165/4799   [3.44% | 4.21% of all tickets sold]

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	285	31380	35467	4087	11.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	525
Total Seats Sold Today	164

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	204.45		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		19.42m
NWH	25.90		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		12.95m

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	155.05		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		21.43m
Bats (BW adj)	---		144	3856		0/234	25705/29561	13.04%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Tuesday Sales:        656/815     [80.49% sold]     [+2 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   976/1301   [75.02% sold]   [+17 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    2455/33351  [7.36% sold]  [+145 tickets]

---

Regal:  1071/10475  [10.22% sold] [+24 tickets]

Matinee: 175/4799   [3.65% | 4.28% of all tickets sold]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 6PM PST

 

California - 901 on 19 shows

Phoenix 4 - 1146 on 25 shows

Uncharted Harkins Previews

 

California - 1131 on 19 shows

Phoenix 4 - 1391 on 25 shows

 

Comps

2.17x Free Guy - $4.78M

0.32x Eternals - $3.05M

0.58x Halloween Kills - $3M (adj for CAN and lack of PLFs)

1.39x Jackass Forever - $2.3M

 

hmm. Harkins doesn't suggest strong Southwest which means MTC 1 will over index. Looks like $3-3.25M previews then.

[CJohn]

America about to let Tom Holland down.

[Caesar]

Uncharted - Saturday (T-1) - Australia (QLD + NSW)

 

518 Shows

7.41% sold (8413/113482)

Edited February 18, 2022 by Caesar

[MrPink]

https://deadline.com/2022/02/box-office-uncharted-dog-tom-holland-channing-tatum-1234956548/

 

3.7m for Uncharted, 1.2m for Dog

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

https://deadline.com/2022/02/box-office-uncharted-dog-tom-holland-channing-tatum-1234956548/

 

3.7m for Uncharted, 1.2m for Dog

That’s really good for both. 

[BruiseCruise]

37-40m 4 day looks good

 

dog looking at 10-12m 4 day

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/17/2022 at 10:32 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Uncharted comps

TSS - .993x (4.071m)

Dune - .57x (2.9m)

Free Guy - 2.195x (4.83m)

Jungle Cruise - 1.844x (4.98m)

Ghostbusters - .7x (2.91m)

Average - 3.94m

Prediction - 4m

Don't know why I didn't think of it until today, but I went back and comped it against Death on the Nile and came up with 3.42 as of preview morning.  Would have brought my average down to 3.85

[DAJK]

13 hours ago, DAJK said:

My uncharted show tonight was actually pretty full. Really good audience reactions too (I thought it was okay). Will have comps within the hour.

My apologies for not getting around to this. Sometimes things come up and box office has to take a back seat  

 

I did still collect numbers for the two new openers though, and will be able to use them for future comps!

[TinaDuraes]

I don't understand much about tracking, is The Batman doing good? Any comparison to other movies?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/11/2022 at 2:53 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Death on the Nile	2,935	56,756		47,841	8,915	3,846	0
Marry Me	3,172	53,179		52,450	729	0	0
Jackass Forever	3,250	49,091	-38.82%	47,787	1,304	0	0
Moonfall	3,256	35,335	-45.31%	34,480	855	8	0
Blacklight	2,482	33,722		33,474	248	0	0
Spider-Man	2,867	31,294	-24.89%	30,943	351	0	159
Sing 2	2472	23163	-26.07%	23054	109	0	27
Scream 5	2,283	22,980	-34.31%	22,886	94	0	0
Licorice Pizza	1,775	16,513	153.69%	16,513	0	0	0
American Underdog	1,057	6,468	-38.08%	6,468	0	0	0
Belfast	858	5,122	130.41%	5,122	0	0	0
Redeeming Love	766	4,190	-68.95%	4,179	11	0	0
The Wolf and the Lion	693	4,119	-65.87%	4,114	5	0	0
The King's Man	611	3,308	-75.11%	3,308	0	0	0
Dune	618	2,644		2,637	7	0	7
Ghostbusters	401	2,305	-66.21%	2,294	11	0	0
West Side Story	375	1,841	-52.98%	1,835	6	0	0
King Richard	402	1,735		1,735	0	0	0
The 355	329	1,518	-84.93%	1,513	5	0	0
Encanto	228	1,428	-48.76%	1,428	0	0	0
Nightmare Alley	321	1,322	7.22%	1,322	0	0	0
House of Gucci	218	1,058	-62.39%	1,058	0	0	0
Parallel Mothers	178	903	-61.38%	903	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 2/11/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Death on the Nile - 56,756

Old - 56,613

 

Marry Me - 53,179

Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762

West Side Story - 54,697

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

 

Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672 TC)

  - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

  - NTTD - 63,789 (2,910)

Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

  - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

  - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950)

The Cursed - 11,540 (959)

 

T-2 Week Previews

 

Cyrano - 391 (280 TC)

  - French Dispatch - 506 (249)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Batman (Tuesday) - 351 (350)

Batman (Wednesday) - 485 (447)

Batman (Thursday) - 21,077 (2,439)

  - Spider-Man - 5,529 (793)

  - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX
Uncharted	3,358	85,247		73,343	11,904	3,356
Dog	3,099	48,752		48,647	105	0
Marry Me	3,166	35,677	-32.91%	35,604	73	0
Death on the Nile	2,953	35,281	-37.84%	35,104	177	24
Jackass Forever	2,751	33,579	-31.60%	33,203	376	0
Spider-Man	2,578	26,948	-13.89%	26,785	163	0
Blacklight	2472	23219	-31.15%	23174	45	0
The Cursed	1,609	20,717		20,665	52	0
Sing 2	2,105	15,759	-31.96%	15,698	61	0
Moonfall	1,893	14,816	-58.07%	14,701	115	0
Scream 5	1,651	13,627	-40.70%	13,596	31	0
Encanto	1,186	7,126	399.02%	7,118	8	0
Licorice Pizza	1,164	5,236	-68.29%	5,236	0	0
West Side Story	871	4,623	151.11%	4,623	0	0
Belfast	396	1,717	-66.48%	1,717	0	0
Redeeming Love	198	1,145	-72.67%	1,134	11	0

 

US showtime sample for 2/18/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Uncharted - 85,247

 - Dune - 82,661

 - Scream 5 - 85,504

 

Dog - 48,752

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762

 - West Side Story - 54,697

 

The Cursed - 20,717

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

 

Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254 TC)

 - Malignant - 13,975 (1,363)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 

Cyrano - 5,263 (471)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Batman (Tuesday) - 358 (357)

Batman (Wednesday) - 489 (450)

Batman (Thursday) - 23,704 (2,907)

  - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,835)

  - Eternals - 9,541 (2,473)

Edited February 18, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Missing shows for Licorice Pizza

[BruiseCruise]

10 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

I don't understand much about tracking, is The Batman doing good? Any comparison to other movies?

Much better than Eternals/BW and worse than NWH, 120m OW seems like floor 

[katnisscinnaplex]

The Batman T-14 previews showtime splits

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	2,356	9.94%
3:01-3:59	1,761	7.43%
4:00-4:59	3,022	12.75%
5:00-5:59	2,246	9.48%
6:00-6:59	2,572	10.85%
7:00-7:59	4,152	17.52%
8:00-8:59	2,837	11.97%
9:00-9:59	2,053	8.66%
10:00-10:59	1,747	7.37%
11:00+	958	4.04%

 

Spider-Man T-13 previews showtime splits

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	2,192	8.20%
3:01-3:59	2,201	8.23%
4:00-4:59	3,397	12.71%
5:00-5:59	2,232	8.35%
6:00-6:59	3,433	12.84%
7:00-7:59	4,373	16.36%
8:00-8:59	2,749	10.28%
9:00-9:59	2,263	8.47%
10:00-10:59	2,554	9.56%
11:00+	1,335	4.99%

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, TinaDuraes said:

I don't understand much about tracking, is The Batman doing good? Any comparison to other movies?

By most accounts, it’s doing good. If you have unrealistic expectations then it probably isn’t. We mostly track previews in this thread (Thursday, typically) but we can extrapolate predictions based on that. 
 

Here are some recent previews numbers….

 

No Way Home $50M

Black Widow $13.2M

The Eternals $9.5M

Shang Chi $8.8M

 

Right now, The Batman looks to be pointing at $18-25M in previews. We will of course have a much narrower idea in 10-12 days. From that, OW would probably be 6-7x previews. 

Edited February 18, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[el sid]

On 2/17/2022 at 9:13 PM, el sid said:

I ignore the TSS comp because here we have no HBO Max competition and go with 3.75M from previews for Uncharted.

.
 

Uncharted, counted today at 7am EST for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 339 (9 showtimes; for Saturday it had 276 sold tickets which is a better number than that on Thursday for Friday = 239)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 310 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 171 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 40 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 121 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 302 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 438 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.721.
Up 33% since yesterday.

Comps: TSS (8.0M) had 2.095 sold tickets on Friday for Friday = 82% (up from 75.5% yesterday) but Uncharted definitely has the better walk-ups. The preview number would have been 2.75M in comparison and actually it was 3.7M so for Friday it would be 10M+.
And Jackass Forever made also around 8M true Friday and had 1.327 sold tickets, would be ca. 10.5M for Uncharted with the same walk-ups. 
 

[BruiseCruise]

3.7

10.5 true fri

11

7

 

is that reasonable or am i undershooting?

[Tinalera]

The Batman

Toronto Ontario Greater Toronto Area

March 3 taken feb 18

13 Theatres

81 shows

 

Total sold 2886

Total Remaining 15977

Total seats 18863

Percentage 15.3

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	23	0	7	8	3
Seats Added	3,416	0	717	1,377	133
Seats Sold	3,053	3,366	3,078	7,458	6,150
2/17/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,253	113,559	918,991	12.36%

 

 

ATP

$17.18

[el sid]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

3.7

10.5 true fri

11

7

 

is that reasonable or am i undershooting?

Hopefully undershooting . The walk-ups must have been really good on Thursday and some Friday threater reports in the weekend thread look promising.