The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

Honestly 100-110M would be disappointing. But i think the early shows and the unusual rollout WB is doing with social media, reviews etc are probably messin with the numbers i bit. 

 

Warner will go hard on the week of release with reactions, reviews, early fan shows etc, so i think the final week will push the numbers higher than it's looking now. 

 

Still expecting (or hoping) for 23-25M previews and +140M OW.

[Madhuvan]

From the tracking no way it goes below 120m

 

DC is not that frontloaded. Plus great reviews will increase more interest. I see around opening of 140-150m , maybe above Captain Marvel if things align

[Maggie]

46 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

Warner will go hard on the week of release with reactions, reviews,

 

 

The reviews are expected to be great. Everyone knows this.  i now think the awesome reviews won't influence that much. It's not like the reviews will be surprising to create some media storm

Edited February 22, 2022 by Maggie

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The reviews are expected to be great. Everyone knows this.  i now think the awesome reviews won't influence that much. It's not like the reviews will be surprising to create some media storm

No? Most people have no idea about the reviews because nothing has been officially released. The only reason I'm confident in the reviews is because of stuff I've read on this forum.

[Dragoncaine]

21 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The reviews are expected to be great. Everyone knows this.  i now think the awesome reviews won't influence that much. It's not like the reviews will be surprising to create some media storm

There are a lot of general audience members who are not fully sold on this movie yet, thinking it's too similar to Nolan, jaded after Snyder, etc. Great reviews and buzzy social media reactions will definitely drive more people to the theater, and positive word of mouth combined with virtually no competition for a month could make this thing explode.

[Alexander]

I was thinking for some time now that The Batman could slightly dissapoint. At least here in Europe-UK. I think back in '16 Squad was a bigger hit than BvS and then Joker probably made as much money as those two combined. My local cinema sold just 4 tickets for first 6 screenings. After 9 days. Even worse than Matrix 4. And looking at these presales in US I'd probably drop my 120-140M OW prediction to 100-120M right now.

[AnDr3s]

37 minutes ago, Alexander said:

I was thinking for some time now that The Batman could slightly dissapoint. At least here in Europe-UK. I think back in '16 Squad was a bigger hit than BvS and then Joker probably made as much money as those two combined. My local cinema sold just 4 tickets for first 6 screenings. After 9 days. Even worse than Matrix 4. And looking at these presales in US I'd probably drop my 120-140M OW prediction to 100-120M right now.

i just saw that they've only sold 3 tickets in romania worse than cats! i'mt thinking 5$ OW

[Dragoncaine]

Any truth to this tweet from a box office account with 14k followers saying The Batman has exceeded $20m in U.S. presales?

Edited February 22, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Any truth to this tweet from a box office account with 14k followers saying The Batman has exceeded $20m in U.S. presales?

Charlie would know better but that’s probably fairly close. Most trackers have it about 30-40% of NWH (at the same point in time) and that did over $40M presales in the first 24 hours. So let’s say NWH was $50-60M about 10 days out, some math and extrapolation would say The Batman should be around $20M by now. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

When you account for the early fan events, it should be well over 20m IMO

[interiorgatordecorator]

I know NATO hasn't updated their average ticket price since 2019, but do we have any sort of estimate as to what the average 2D-3D-IMAX-IMAX 3D ticket goes for these days?

 

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[WittyUsername]

Didn’t Uncharted have really strong walk-ups?

[Caesar]

5 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Honestly 100-110M would be disappointing.

It honestly shouldn't be.

 

Yeah NWH did a mega opening but that was immediately followed by Omicron going crazy. Sure you can hit the young male demo who won't care but that's not going to get you $150m, you need to convince all the demo's to come out for that and I feel like there's a significant amount of people who are willing to wait it out a bit rather than go to a full cinema. Plus you've still got some cinema's in North America running reduced seating capacity.

 

It's got a full month entirely to itself, even if it opens to $100m it can still easily go over $400m with good WOM. There's no need to worry if it only does $100m on opening weekend.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Caesar

[CJohn]

Lets not forget WB already announced when this movie will be available to stream on HBO MAX which is the dumbest move possible. People only need to wait 45 days to see it on their couches.

[WittyUsername]

9 minutes ago, Caesar said:

It honestly shouldn't be.

It honestly should be. BW made $80 million OW while being available on Disney+, and that movie didn’t have ridiculously inflated “preview” screenings. There is no excuse for this movie to not open significantly higher than that.

 

And why are people just assuming that walk-ups won’t be good? Uncharted and Dog both blew past expectations based on pre-sales. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lets not forget WB already announced when this movie will be available to stream on HBO MAX which is the dumbest move possible. People only need to wait 45 days to see it on their couches.

 

And lets be honest, many will be inclined to wait till those 45 days are over. People are lazy.

[TinaDuraes]

20 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lets not forget WB already announced when this movie will be available to stream on HBO MAX which is the dumbest move possible. People only need to wait 45 days to see it on their couches.

I don't think enough people are aware of that to make a big impact. 

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, Caesar said:

It honestly shouldn't be.

 

Yeah NWH did a mega opening but that was immediately followed by Omicron going crazy. Sure you can hit the young male demo who won't care but that's not going to get you $150m, you need to convince all the demo's to come out for that and I feel like there's a significant amount of people who are willing to wait it out a bit rather than go to a full cinema. Plus you've still got some cinema's in North America running reduced seating capacity.

 

It's got a full month entirely to itself, even if it opens to $100m it can still easily go over $400m with good WOM. There's no need to worry if it only does $100m on opening weekend.

It's not about NWH tho. If Venom 2 manage to do nearly 100M, similar numbers for The Batman would be disappointing, especially being so much more hyped and tracking considerable higher than that.

 

If it happens i'm sure nobody would call it a flop or something, but disappointing for sure.

 

With that said, i don't think this will be the numbers, like i said i think 130-140M is the reasonable expectation and presales are a bit depressed now because of the reasons i discuss earlier.

 

[meridan]

18 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lets not forget WB already announced when this movie will be available to stream on HBO MAX which is the dumbest move possible. People only need to wait 45 days to see it on their couches.

That's Jason Kilar for you. That man doesn't give a damn about the theatrical model. Deep down he would throw every movie on HBO Max & Theatres if he could. It's simply not possible because they would lose directors like Reeves, Villeneuve ect...

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lets not forget WB already announced when this movie will be available to stream on HBO MAX which is the dumbest move possible. People only need to wait 45 days to see it on their couches.

I don't think it will be exactly 45 days, this is more an average than a rule, it depends more of the numbers the movies are pulling.

 

Disney said the same for Shang Chi / Eternals and both ended up getting +60 days exclusivity. 

 

I doubt it will be different with WB and Batman.