The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[grim22]

16 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Thats pretty common here in India. The more in demand a movie the more the theatres charge for it. And theatres continually adjust prices depending on demand (particularly during OW for a huge movie). 

I remember watching Ghajini for a 500 rupee ticket. Still no idea what I was thinking with that.

[BruiseCruise]

How much were NWH Th+Fri presales?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

It's picking up here. The Wed fan event Cinemark XD has just the first 2 rows left open

 

THURSDAY CINEMARK (226)

3XD-- (21)

345- (4)

415 (0)

445 (14)

515 (2)

530 (18)

6 (5)

640 (0)

715 XD (122)

8 (24)

830 (0)

9 (8)

930 (0)

945 (8)

10 (0)

 

Not doing the AMC.. to much counting, but promising

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, AdrianL said:

https://deadline.com/2022/03/the-batman-box-office-projections-1234968507/

 

Deadline saying $40m presales for Thursday/Friday. 

I think only sales data they get is Alpha. If I had only that data, and I didn't had experience of tracking this whole thing for 2 years now, I would be going $35M+ overall as well but def not $40M for THU/FRI.

 

Edit: Doing a recheck, yes likely I would see it at $40M overall sales if I only knew Alpha chain data. Overall not just THU & FRI.

Edited March 2, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think only sales data they get is Alpha. If I had only that data, and I didn't had experience of tracking this whole thing for 2 years now, I would be going $35M+ overall as well but def not $40M for THU/FRI.

 

They get all the data and are probably underestimating. 

 

I also think, in seriousness, price inflation is going to be real factor here. Tickets around me are a good $2 more than they were in December.

[excel1]

Why so many doubters for THE BATMANs popularity? Where you in 1966, 1989, 2008, etc? Why so hard to believe it will blow up? 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by excel1

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I also think, in seriousness, price inflation is going to be real factor here. Tickets around me are a good $2 more than they were in December.

 

Careful, excel.  You're perilously close to breaking kayfabe here...

 

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Why so many doubters for THE BATMANs popularity? Where you in 1966, 1989, 2008, etc? Why so hard to believe it will blow up? 

 

 

Ah! Back to normal. Phew, had me worried there for a second.

 

Carry on then! 👍

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Why so many doubters for THE BATMANs popularity? Where you in 1966, 1989, 2008, etc? Why so hard to believe it will blow up? 

 

Because what you're calling for and hyping isn't possible. You're talking about NWH numbers when it's doing less than half that in presales. I believe it can hit $150M (although I'm not currently betting on it) but all of this $200M+ stuff is dead in the water. 

[excel1]

1 minute ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

Because what you're calling for and hyping isn't possible. You're talking about NWH numbers when it's doing less than half that in presales. I believe it can hit $150M (although I'm not currently betting on it) but all of this $200M+ stuff is dead in the water. 

 

I remember when everyone predicted Jurassic World would do $100-110m opening weekend the day before it released. 😂

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I remember when everyone predicted Jurassic World would do $100-110m opening weekend the day before it released. 😂

 

 

Ah yes, famously non-fan-driven Batman, an excellent comp to Jurassic movies. 

[BruiseCruise]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I remember when everyone predicted Jurassic World would do $100-110m opening weekend the day before it released. 😂

 

 

presales weren't as big a deal back in 2015 as they are now

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I remember when everyone predicted Jurassic World would do $100-110m opening weekend the day before it released. 😂

 

 

 

2022 isn't 2015

 

[ZackM]

Around 26.5k sold today.  Pretty terrible growth from T-3 to T-2 compared to NWH, but still managed to gain ground in the comp due to the super high ATP and the earlier acceleration.

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: D-0 FINAL
3/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	182	183	50,443	56,898	88.66%
ATP
$23.25

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-1 days
3/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	33,023	39,928	82.71%
ATP
$19.14

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	625	185	3	9	15
Seats Added	63,483	18,565	322	1,110	1,757
Seats Sold	22,500	17,954	10,307	5,992	6,998
3/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	6,195	202,753	1,017,671	19.92%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	16	98	288	560
ATP
$16.45

 

Thursday Only:

.286x NWH T-2

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.324x NWH T-2

 

All Previews:

.403x NWH T-2

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.500 NWH T-2

[filmlover]

So far the shows before 6:00 on Thursday are looking on the slow side but everything after that is selling well, though by no means indicating a monster (sorry to disappoint certain people). The 3 hour running time is likely why it's starting so early (so each screen can get more than one showing in) more than anything else.

[HouseOfTheSun]

I think it’s clear that there’s not going to be any sort of major ramp up in Presales in the last 36 hours or so. It will have to rely on walk ups to break past the 120-130 range imo. 

[Eduardo]

MIAMI AREA (AMC TAMIAMI 18)

Thursday (D-2)(16 showings)

Tickets sold (754 / 1415) 53% occupancy 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

On 2/28/2022 at 11:52 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	199	7795	37371	20.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 864

 

Comp

2.132x of Black Widow T-3 (28.14M)

3.386x of Shang-Chi T-3 (29.8M)

4.431x of Venom 2 T-3 (51.4M)

2.844x of Eternals T-3 (27.02M)

0.364x of Spider-Man: NWH T-3 (18.2M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.452x of Star Wars: TROS (18.07M)

 

....hot damn.

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	217	8732	39778	21.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 937

 

Comp

2.037x of Black Widow T-2 (26.89M)

3.324x of Shang-Chi T-2 (29.25M)

4.037x of Venom 2 T-2 (46.83M)

2.784x of Eternals T-2 (26.45M)

0.370x of Spider-Man: NWH T-2 (18.53M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.478x of Star Wars: TROS T-2 (19.13M)

 

I'm sure people will put up the warning signs here, but I think this is just more a coming down to Earth deal than anything else, and still indicates positive things IMO

[cax16]

On 2/25/2022 at 11:15 AM, cax16 said:

The last day I tracked joker was just before midnight on the day before previews, it had sold 7384 tickets at the 24 nearest locations to me. Batman was at 9427( as of yesterday)from the same theatres at this point. I know it’s not a really great comparison but it’s the only numbers I have from before. Should help going forward for other movies though. 

Joker final count was 7384 as indicated in my last post. I’ll do a final count tomorrow cause that’s when I did Jokers final count but as of a few hours ago Batman was at 13643 seats sold. 

[Porthos]

On 2/28/2022 at 11:24 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	3264	30853	38854	9539	20.42%

 

Total Showings Reaching Theater Cap Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	27
Total Seats Added Today	1731
Total Seats Sold Today	748

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold  T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	132.88		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	73.61%		18.37m
SC	246.95		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	115.77%		21.73m
LTBC	222.88		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	87.77%		25.85m
NTTD	359.86		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	181.13%		22.31m
Dune	449.17		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	232.21%		22.91m
ET	196.95		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	105.62%		18.71m
NWH	31.56		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	24.02%		15.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Tuesday Sales:        715/815     [87.73% sold]    [+9 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1088/1301  [83.63% sold]  [ +13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   4966/36405  [13.64% sold] [+726 tickets]

---

Regal:  1716/11645  [14.74% sold] [+148 tickets]

Matinee: 321/4893   [6.56% | 4.74% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

A good, but not fantastic, review bump for 20m+ numbers needed.  On the one hand, Black Widow went up more than a bit. But a reasonably strong Monday for Eternals meant that comp actually fell a tiny bit.  Still, fairly decent bump.  Just not out of this world.  

 

Added Shang-Chi and Let There Be Carnage, because I obviously don't have enough to do here.  Well that and I wanted to see the later arriving curves of SC and LTBC. Fairly decent against SC though still under.  LTBC though is gonna rapidly chunk into that comp as it starts to beast out.

 

Finally, spent a while working with stuff that @Derby Legion requested and making it Not Look Terrible on mobile.  Added a column that gave a movie's final ticket sales locally and what the current percentage of Batsy is against it.  I'll let folks figure out on their own just how useful that is.  No more requests for more data though, as I plum don' have no mo' room anymore. 👍

 

So... We'll see.  Honestly was hoping for 800+, so came close to what I personally was looking for, but no cigar.  Sacto just might be under-performing/have too large of a hole to dig out of.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	324	31752	38521	6769	17.57%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2*
Total Seats Added Today	250*
Total Seats Sold Today	1149*

* NOTE:  As mentioned earlier today, I discovered one of the theaters in town was showing an extra "Fan First" screening on Wednesday.  Judging by the pace that showing sold the rest of the day, it was probably at approx 100 tickets sold as of last night, meaning the amount of tickets sold today region wide was probably closer to 1050.

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold  T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	136.52		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	86.10%		18.87m
SC	241.48		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	135.42%		21.25m
LTBC	210.87		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		7712	102.67%		24.46m
NTTD	355.07		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	211.88%		22.01m
Dune	454.54		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	271.63%		23.18m
ET	201.32		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	123.55%		19.13m
NWH	34.27		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	28.09%		17.13m

COMP NOTE: The comp for Black Widow has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Tuesday Sales:        743/815     [91.17% sold]   [+28 tickets] [FINAL]

Wednesday Sales: 1238/1515  [81.72% sold] [+150 tickets] [See note above]

Thursday Sales:   5937/36441  [16.42% sold] [+971 tickets]

---

Regal:  2032/11847  [17.15% sold] [+316 tickets]

Matinee: 388/4889   [7.94% | 4.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

All in all a fairly good day.  Even if I don't count that extra 100 tickets or so, it passed my internal benchmarks I was setting in my head.  More importantly the Dune comp (which I thanks to its PLF penetration+ adult skew I think might one of my better comps I might actually have) actually went up, though admittedly that might be due to the extra showtime I found.

 

Black Widow went up by half a mil, and Eternals wasn't much further behind.  Shang-Chi and No Time To Die both dropped a tiny smidge, but, eh. For once can't complain at all today.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Most movies add 5x their T-2, which would get Batman to ~12k. NWH just 3x, which would be ~9.9k. I am thinking it will grow about 60% from here (10830), which would put final comps at:

BW 19 

SC 19  

LTBC 19

nttd 21

Dune 22.2

Et 18.8  

NWH  22.5

 

so we can see that the 4 small marvel movies will basically be in agreement, with nttd about 10% higher and NWH almost 20% higher. I guess I would take about 22 from that final figure, but it also wouldn’t be too surprising to come in 10% higher or lower.