The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[HouseOfTheSun]

8 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Then aquaman wouldn't have made a fricking billion . Yes synderverse definitely had an effect on the dceu  .The MCU brand always helps future installments box office but since synderverse faltered every DC movie survives by its own merit .On that point I can agree .

But the batman IP just like Spiderman is still popular and can bring audiences to cinema. 

This movie is clearly skewing adult , families as an audience are severely hampered, tedious runtime and of course tone. WOM let's wait for CinemaScore and see where it lands. But it's just started its box office run so let's table that discussion until it's run is done.

 

I know people are going to say MCU boosted Spiderman which I agree with but Sony first run into the ground with the Garfield movies. If this movies were good and not derivative ,they would have made way more money and I can guarantee you Spiderman would have remained exclusively Sony.

 

Batman and Spiderman IP have been big for decades and they will continue to do so. 

 

Now back to DC and surviving on its own merit . Every DC movie after aquaman.

 

Shazam - Good reception stateside but it was trounced by EG . Reception OS was tepid. Was still quite profitable 74m acc to deadline.

 

Joker - not dceu and was very different from standard CBM. Viral marketing campaign, good WoM .

 

BOP .- mixed WOM and suicide squad baggage

 

WW84 - covid, terrible WOM need I say more.  Yeah Hbo max day and date.

 

TSS - suicide squad 2016 baggage, questionable marketing in regards to the title of the film, WOM was fine among GA not exceptional,Hbomax day and date.

 

None of the subsequent films past aquaman with exception of joker has had Good Wom .

 

Batman should be fine 725-800m WW.

 

All eyes are now on flash and black Adam. 

 

 

 

Aquaman wasn’t exactly the first thing people associated with Snyder. He mostly got out of there Scott free. It functioned as a new IP when it released 

[Eric S'ennui]

Moderation

 

GUYS

 

We have other threads. We don't need to pollute the Tracking Thread over an opening weekend that doesn't even exist yet.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Regardless what happens with The Batman, it'll be really interesting to track the remaining DC films this year. People quoted me and laughed when I said DC doesn't really maintain loyalty so yeah, it'll be something to watch out for if Flash is too damaged or if Rock can elevate Black Adam or if Aquaman can deliver on the surprise of the first

[Eric S'ennui]

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	52	11163	0.47%

 

So yeah, I know Lost City sales were up prior, but I was too distracted from Batman to really take advantage of it. But there's nothing else to track until Morbius in a couple days, and it'll be a while before we get into the Morbius/Sonic/Beasts triple bout, so might as well play around with this. Plus awareness on The Quorum has been really good for this over the past couple months, which really perked my interest.

 

Anyhoo, I don't really have any good comps this far out, but I do have Uncharted to look forward to tomorrow. Sadly, I'll have to wait a good, long while for Jungle Cruise and Free Guy, the most appropriate comparisons to use. Seems okay though.

[excel1]

Black Adam seems the most commercial to me. It looks like a Marvel movie, it is fresh, and has the biggest star on Earth in the leading role. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

Black Adam seems the most commercial to me. It looks like a Marvel movie, it is fresh, and has the biggest star on Earth in the leading role. 

 

My current expectation is an OW about 50% bigger than Shazam, and total DOM about 75% bigger. 

[XXR vs XXR]

Soooooo apparently Turning Red isn't a Disney+ exclusive? I haven't looked to see how widespread this is but it's definitely getting SOME show times....

https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/new-york-city/amc-empire-25/showtimes/turning-red-56486/2022-03-11/amc-empire-25/all

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

Soooooo apparently Turning Red isn't a Disney+ exclusive? I haven't looked to see how widespread this is but it's definitely getting SOME show times....

https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/new-york-city/amc-empire-25/showtimes/turning-red-56486/2022-03-11/amc-empire-25/all

 

Think it's for Oscar Qualification, as I read something about that though I didn't read into the details. 

 

Ain't anywhere near my neck of the woods, I can say that much.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

Soooooo apparently Turning Red isn't a Disney+ exclusive? I haven't looked to see how widespread this is but it's definitely getting SOME show times....

https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/new-york-city/amc-empire-25/showtimes/turning-red-56486/2022-03-11/amc-empire-25/all

 

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Think it's for Oscar Qualification, as I read something about that though I didn't read into the details. 

 

Ain't anywhere near my neck of the woods, I can say that much.

 

Two theaters, near as I can tell:

 

 

El Capitan is one week only:

 

 

 

and judging by the showtimes over at AMC Empire 25, it's a One Week Limited Engagement over there as well.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

40 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	52	11163	0.47%

 

So yeah, I know Lost City sales were up prior, but I was too distracted from Batman to really take advantage of it. But there's nothing else to track until Morbius in a couple days, and it'll be a while before we get into the Morbius/Sonic/Beasts triple bout, so might as well play around with this. Plus awareness on The Quorum has been really good for this over the past couple months, which really perked my interest.

 

Anyhoo, I don't really have any good comps this far out, but I do have Uncharted to look forward to tomorrow. Sadly, I'll have to wait a good, long while for Jungle Cruise and Free Guy, the most appropriate comparisons to use. Seems okay though.

Geeze, what is this actual tracking post doing here. Way out of theme with the pages I just caught up on 😛    
 

I do kind of see the attraction of JC and FG, but I am also wary. They seem more kid/family oriented vs Lost Coty being more adult aimed, though all are nonsequel light action comedy fare. Not like I have another suggestion though -  haven’t had a classic adult aimed action romcom in a looooooong time that I can recall.

[Eric S'ennui]

4 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Geeze, what is this actual tracking post doing here. Way out of theme with the pages I just caught up on 😛    
 

I do kind of see the attraction of JC and FG, but I am also wary. They seem more kid/family oriented vs Lost Coty being more adult aimed, though all are nonsequel light action comedy fare. Not like I have another suggestion though -  haven’t had a classic adult aimed action romcom in a looooooong time that I can recall.

I was kind of contemplating Scream for a while, since that's an older-skewing and female-skewing feature, and horror movies are backloaded like Lost City likely will be, but it being both horror and from an established franchise does muddy things a lot. And at T-21, Lost City's at about 0.225x of Scream, roughly 789K. Which like...sure, maybe that could happen, but I kind of doubt that, at least for right now.

[Legion Again]

I wanted to float GBA, but a little concerned about Ghostbusters fan base even if it isn’t a heavyweight fanbase.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	52	11163	0.47%

 

So yeah, I know Lost City sales were up prior, but I was too distracted from Batman to really take advantage of it. But there's nothing else to track until Morbius in a couple days, and it'll be a while before we get into the Morbius/Sonic/Beasts triple bout, so might as well play around with this. Plus awareness on The Quorum has been really good for this over the past couple months, which really perked my interest.

 

Anyhoo, I don't really have any good comps this far out, but I do have Uncharted to look forward to tomorrow. Sadly, I'll have to wait a good, long while for Jungle Cruise and Free Guy, the most appropriate comparisons to use. Seems okay though.

 

I presume this includes the Fandango Only early Sat screening?    

 

(if you weren't aware, there's a Fandango Only Screening on the 19th)

 

33 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

I wanted to float GBA, but a little concerned about Ghostbusters fan base even if it isn’t a heavyweight fanbase.

 

Comp would be a little rough even beyond that, as Afterlife didn't come online until T-17 and TLC has already been up for three days (including today).   But if we wanted to give The Lost City every advantage:

 

as of right now locally, TLC (T-21) = 0.3216x Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1.45m) (T-17)

 

If you wanted an after three days of sales, the comp would be 0.2327x (1.05m) (Day 3).

 

(NB: That's as good as you're getting out of me as all I recorded was seats sold, not number of seats or even theater locations)

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Friday(520 showings): 25215(+3363)/63268 ATP: $14.69

0.682x NWH's T-1 (49.06M)

2.42x Eternals T-1 (51.64M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Friday(523 showings): 27612(+2397)/63482 ATP: $14.61

0.686x NWH T-1 night count (49.34M)

2.31x Eternals T-1 night count (49.30M)

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Friday(248 showings): 8610(+2036)/60887 in 15 theaters

0.319x NWH's T-1 (22.955M)

1.60x NTTD T-1 (27.33M)

1.37x Black Widow T-1 (36.03M)

The Batman Megaplex

 

Friday(248 showings): 10224(+1614)/60887 in 15 theaters

0.343x NWH's T-1 night count (24.67M)

1.52x NTTD T-1 night count (25.94M)

1.20x Black Widow T-1 night count (31.56M)

[EmpireCity]

I am just SHOCKED to log onto BOT and see melt down negativity.  It must be a Thursday night before any actual numbers come out.  Lol  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Father Stu has tickets on sale now lol. Maybe it'll do well since it's Wahlberg and a religious film during Easter? Another Sony W 

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

I am just SHOCKED to log onto BOT and see melt down negativity.  It must be a Thursday night before any actual numbers come out.  Lol  

It is our tradition to have meltdown for every single opener. 

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

It is our tradition to have meltdown for every single opener. 

Can never tell if people really believe this or it’s just a fun meme.

[Old Spice]

Late night walkups bumped Salt Lake Sugarhouse to a final of 600/888 (67.6%). Friday and Saturday look good as well.

 

Friday: 479 (+95) and one private watch party (+48).

Saturday: 394 (+115)