The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'll glance but I won't seriously track Lost City. Original films rarely have strong PS here, especially something more aiming for women. Dog, for example. Last year, Free Guy lagged compared to the numbers here. Ditto Jungle Cruise (not original but similar vibe boosted by walkups). It's better to historically wait and see to avoid any overreactions on both sides.

 

I mean, just right now the Fandango premiere had 7 tickets on the 19th. The Wednesday 23rd date night event at AMC has 0. On Thursday at AMC, the 430 and 750 are sold out. The 4pm Dolby has 4. 14 for the 7 DOLBY. On Friday, 1 for the 4pm DOLBY. 11 for the 710 DOLBY. 0 for regular 430 and 750. At Cinemark, 0 for 430 Thursday. 1 for 730. 

[DAJK]

April 22 is easily the most interesting weekend in the next few months. 4 essentially original movies competing for limited screens after 3 “big” blockbusters back to back to back. I think they all look good in their own right, and I just wish they were a little more spread out to give each one some breathing room.

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

April 22 is easily the most interesting weekend in the next few months. 4 essentially original movies competing for limited screens after 3 “big” blockbusters back to back to back. I think they all look good in their own right, and I just wish they were a little more spread out to give each one some breathing room.

I wish Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent would've just moved to April 29. Everyone just terrified of being a week before Doctor Strange 2? Seems silly for a movie like UWoMT

[filmlover]

I'll be surprised if The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent doesn't flop. A concept ("come watch Nic Cage reference his entire career as a fictionalized version of himself for two hours") with niche appeal if there ever was one.

[VanillaSkies]

Apologies if this is not the right place to post this, but seeing some interesting data in Ontario, Canada for this upcoming Saturday. 

Apparently BTS are hosting their first concerts in Seoul, South Korea since October 2019 this weekend, and it seems Cineplex is selling tickets to the live streams of the show on Saturday. 

 

Here is where things get interesting. 

Since it's an "event", tickets are $35 each. 

And the tickets are selling like mad from what I can see, and theatres seem to be scrambling to add more seats. 

 

Case in point: 

Scotiabank Toronto Cineplex - 2 x 4:30pm shows = 299 tickets sold, 2 x 8:30pm shows = 184 tickets sold = 483 total

At $35/pop with no child or senior discounts being made available, that's $16 905 just from this theatre

Another example:

Scotiabank Ottawa Cineplex - 2 x 4:30pm shows = 91 tickets sold, 2 x 8:30pm shows = 88 tickets sold = 179 total
At $35/pop with no child or senior discounts being made available, that's $6265 just from this theatre

And it appears like it's not just Ontario, as Scotiabank Montreal Cineplex (Quebec) is also participating as I'm sure many others are. 
Is this getting any release in the US? Because if so, it could possibly crack the top 10 this weekend even with such few showtimes.

EDIT - Cinemark is participating, huge ad on the front page of their website. Saturday showings only as well. Cinemark is also selling at $35 per ticket.
Would be so interested to get some more data on this.

Edited March 10, 2022 by VanillaSkies

[AdrianL]

4 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Apologies if this is not the right place to post this, but seeing some interesting data in Ontario, Canada for this upcoming Saturday. 

Apparently BTS are hosting their first concerts in Seoul, South Korea since October 2019 this weekend, and it seems Cineplex is selling tickets to the live streams of the show on Saturday. 

 

Here is where things get interesting. 

Since it's an "event", tickets are $35 each. 

And the tickets are selling like mad from what I can see, and theatres seem to be scrambling to add more seats. 

 

Case in point: 

Scotiabank Toronto Cineplex - 2 x 4:30pm shows = 299 tickets sold, 2 x 8:30pm shows = 184 tickets sold = 483 total

At $35/pop with no child or senior discounts being made available, that's $16 905 just from this theatre

Another example:

Scotiabank Ottawa Cineplex - 2 x 4:30pm shows = 91 tickets sold, 2 x 8:30pm shows = 88 tickets sold = 179 total
At $35/pop with no child or senior discounts being made available, that's $6265 just from this theatre

And it appears like it's not just Ontario, as Scotiabank Montreal Cineplex (Quebec) is also participating as I'm sure many others are. 
Is this getting any release in the US? Because if so, it could possibly crack the top 10 this weekend even with such few showtimes.

Yeah, they are playing in US and also $35 a ticket... what a scam lol but the screenings in my area are completely sold out, auditoriums are small though probably due to Batman. 

[DAJK]

I'll see if I can get bigger data, but locally both showings of this are completely sold out. Would be curious to see if its box office is reported, I can easily see it coming in second place for the day if it is.

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'll see if I can get bigger data, but locally both showings of this are completely sold out. Would be curious to see if its box office is reported, I can easily see it coming in second place for the day if it is.

Also curious about that. 

If it's across North America, as it seems to be with both Cineplex and Cinemark at least showing it, you would think they would report the numbers. Not much different than that Justin Bieber "Never Say Never" concert, except maybe the price, though these days an IMAX showing of The Batman can cost $28 a pop in some places, so not even that much more TBH.

EDIT - Alamo Drafthouse and Marcus Theatres participating too. I'm sure a few other will be as well. Nice to see that theatres will have some additional business this weekend over and above The Batman and other holdovers.

Edited March 10, 2022 by VanillaSkies

[XXR vs XXR]

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

March 11, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

Radhe Shyam

68 show times -- 194 total seats sold -- 0 PLF seats sold -- 194 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 0% PLF -- 100% Regular 

 

Comps: N/A

 

True Friday Estimate: $90-120K
Opening Weekend Estimate: $250-350K

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Tyson's Run 

45 show times -- 25 total seats sold -- 0 PLF seats sold -- 25 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 0% PLF -- 100% Regular 

 

Comps: N/A

 

True Friday Estimate: $40-60K
Opening Weekend Estimate: $125-175K

 

Spoiler

Comments 

I've only tracked 'The Batman' using this scope, and it's obviously not a good comp for either of these. I imagine Radhe Shyam will be more presale heavy than Tyson's Run. Neither are estimated to be in over 1000 theaters this weekend (~800 and ~500, respectively). Since I've never done movies this small before, both of my estimates are shot in the dark guesses.

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Radhe Shyam
 

True Friday Estimate: $90-120K
Opening Weekend Estimate: $250-350K

Will have $800K+ THU previews. Weekend may be $1.5M+.

[XXR vs XXR]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Will have $800K+ THU previews. Weekend may be $1.5M+.

 

Previews are that high? Hmm, limited release/niche films like this are hard to judge. Good to know though. If I did a straight Batman comp (and accounted for PLF), it would be like $350K Friday but I assume it's way over-indexing in major cities. 

[DAJK]

BTS is already at like 0.7M presales in Canada for Saturday. If Canada scales correctly, accounting for 10% of the box office... that’s 7M at least.

[Eric Burnett]

On 3/9/2022 at 10:58 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	117	12340	0.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

6.500x of Jungle Cruise T-15 (17.55M)

0.425x of Scream T-15 (1.49M)

0.534x of Uncharted T-15 (1.98M)

 

So yeah, a new comp...that is basically useless until later on down the road. Take what you can get I suppose, though it will probably be fun to see the fall happen.

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	119	12340	0.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

3.132x of Jungle Cruise T-14 (8.45M)

0.419x of Scream T-14 (1.47M)

0.488x of Uncharted T-14 (1.8M)

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

BTS is already at like 0.7M presales in Canada for Saturday. If Canada scales correctly, accounting for 10% of the box office... that’s 7M at least.

 

Percentage might be a little skewed since it's not getting a full rollout in the States and I don't know if the ratio is gonna be normal when it comes to Canada:US screens.

 

For instance, while Regal does have showtimes for it in LA, there's none locally here.  In fact, only Cinemark is carrying it locally which means that Regal, SMG, and Cinema West aren't.

 

May not matter though if there is enough showtimes in any given market.  But could mean some skewing if some markets have more capacity than others.

[YM!]

22 hours ago, DAJK said:

April 22 is easily the most interesting weekend in the next few months. 4 essentially original movies competing for limited screens after 3 “big” blockbusters back to back to back. I think they all look good in their own right, and I just wish they were a little more spread out to give each one some breathing room.

The Bad Guys should take Super Pets spot

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The Bad Guys should take Super Pets spot

Still  March some places OS so that would create a huge gap.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

Previews are that high? Hmm, limited release/niche films like this are hard to judge. Good to know though. If I did a straight Batman comp (and accounted for PLF), it would be like $350K Friday but I assume it's way over-indexing in major cities. 

South Indian films do better in Cinemark.
 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

East coast snowstorm Saturday 

[charlie Jatinder]

RRR pre-sales

[lorddemaxus]

Don't know if this has been mentioned before but Everything Everywhere All at Once taking up the IMAX screen of one of the AMCs here. Is it getting a IMAX release everywhere? Don't think I've heard of a A24 film getting one before.