The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Do you know if there's a date set for The Northman presales?

 

Same day.  Wednesday, April 6th.  7pm early shows.  

[XXR vs XXR]

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

March 25, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

The Lost City

173 show times -- 2459 total seats sold -- 1673 PLF seats sold -- 786 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 68.0% PLF -- 32.0% Regular 

Theater Estimates: 4253

 

Comp: The Batman (0.1352x = $4.75M True Friday)

 

True Friday Estimate: $7-8M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $26-29M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

RRR

70 show times -- 600 total seats sold -- 209 PLF seats sold -- 391 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 34.8% PLF -- 65.2% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~1400

 

Comp: Radhe Shyam (3.093x = $3.87M Full Friday) 

 

Full Friday Estimate: $4.8-5.5M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $7.2-8.2M

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Infinite Storm 

65 show times -- 299 total seats sold -- 0 PLF seats sold -- 299 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 0% PLF -- 100% Regular 

Theater Estimates: 1525

 

Comp: The Outfit (1.41x = $750K Full Friday)

Comp: Umma (2.3x = $780K Full Friday)

 

Full Friday Estimate: $700-800K
Opening Weekend Estimate: $1.8-2.2M

 

 

Spoiler

Comments 

Still working on getting better comps. It'll come in time. Feels like a slightly less front-loaded Uncharted would be a good comp for The Lost City. I think my comps for RRR and Infinite Storm will be pretty good overall. RRR I adjusted up about 30% to account for the insanely high ticket prices. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Remember the angst about 9 years or so ago when previews dropped from 9/10pm overall to 7pm..... then pre-covid the drop to 5/6pm now 3pm is the "new early" eventually it will be all day Thursday and they will still try to grin and say its just previews 😂🤷‍♂️

Just wait until you go full British. If a movie opens on a Saturday, the opening weekend is classed as a full 9 days......

[DAJK]

I'm already seeing The Lost City behaving like a major walk-up film. 4:00 show at one of my locals had 2 measly tickets sold by 3:45 PM, and fifteen minutes later it's at 24 tickets (not all in one group, but scattered around the auditorium). 7:00 show is at 11 tickets sold, so we'll see how high walkups go for that one.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Lost City 4pm today had 3 presales and added about a dozen walk-ups. 

 

The 650XD currently is at 14 seats. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Money.  

But they are losing money with lower ticket rates in matinee shows. Unless they drop matinee prices for Previews.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

But they are losing money with lower ticket rates in matinee shows. Unless they drop matinee prices for Previews.

The Cinemark here in XD is selling 4pm and 7XD Morbius for 9.50 on preview Thursdays. It's usually 7.50 before 7

[Eric Lasagna]

20 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	774	12953	5.98%

 

Most Seats Sold Today: 98

 

Comp

2.473x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (6.68M)

2.546x of Free Guy T-1 (5.6M)

0.871x of Uncharted T-1 (3.22M)

 

So I have a terrible confession. I was totally swamped with work today, so I couldn't check today's showings. And I lost track of time when I got home so I completely missed all but one 7 PM showing tonight. So today's sales are not indicative of all sales.

 

I'm really, really sorry this isn't accurate, but I hope you guys will understand and won't be upset over this. If you want just Thursday numbers, they now account for 331 tickets.

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	1022	12953	7.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 248

 

Comp

1.300x of Jungle Cruise (3.5M)

1.460x of Free Guy (3.21M)

0.740x of Uncharted (2.74M)

 

3M previews sound about right, accounting for all the advance showings, so let's go with that.

[charlie Jatinder]

20 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Lost City Harkins California and Phoenix 4 T-1 Day

 

WED Early Screenings - 498/697 on 6 shows (71.45%)

 

Thursday Previews

California - 104/4048 on 13 shows

Phoenix - 182/1995 on 12 shows

 

Total - 286/6043 on 25 shows

 

I don't really have good comps for this as I tracked Scream, Uncharted and Jackass on just final day. There is a Free Guy comp, donno how well it will fit since it burn nearly 500 audience on WED and probably another 150 on TUE. 

 

Its roughly 22% ahead of Free Guy for THU purely. But its tougher to judge nationwide number for such small number from just 8 cinemas. Let's see what MTC numbers suggest.

 

WED screening probably made $400-500K I guess nationwide. THU may be heading for $2.5-3M. I think $30M+ OW at the moment.

The Lost City Harkins California and Phoenix 4 at 16:00

 

WED Early Screenings - 489/697 on 6 shows (70.15%)

 

Thursday Previews

California - 441/4185 on 14 shows

Phoenix - 576/2110 on 13 shows

 

Total - 1017/6295 on 27 shows

Final number can be 1300+ may be even 1500 at top end. 

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 is it possible to get MTC update.

[Borobudur]

6 hours ago, Skim Beeble said:

I don't think I'll ever understand the reasoning of these absurdly early start times.

They can then pretend they give a movie an extra day staying exclusively in cinema 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Lost City Harkins California and Phoenix 4 at 16:00

 

WED Early Screenings - 489/697 on 6 shows (70.15%)

 

Thursday Previews

California - 441/4185 on 14 shows

Phoenix - 576/2110 on 13 shows

 

Total - 1017/6295 on 27 shows

Final number can be 1300+ may be even 1500 at top end. 

1445 as at 20:00. Final can be 1550-1600 range perhaps. 

 

Comps will be all over the place I imagine. Provisionally it looks like this taking 1550 as final seats.

 

85% of Jackass Forever - $1.4M

61% of Uncharted - $2.27M

41% of Scream - $1.45M

128% of Free Guy - $2.81M

 

I think $2.25M will be best of them. JF and Scream over-indexed in the area. FG may have under-indexed. 

[charlie Jatinder]

RRR has crossed $3M in USA. $3,000,127 from 981 Locations at 7:45 PM PST

Inc Canada probably $3.3M. Final likely $3.5M+

Edited March 25, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Lasagna]

On 3/23/2022 at 11:19 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	854	15649	5.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 83

 

Comp

0.606x of Shang-Chi T-8 (5.33M)

0.888x of Venom 2 T-8 (10.3M)

0.428x of Eternals T-8 (4.07M)

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	892	15649	5.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.579x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.1M)

0.859x of Venom 2 T-7 (9.97M)

0.425x of Eternals T-7 (4.04M)

 

Well...I really hope this is a fluke.

[Eric Lasagna]

On 3/23/2022 at 11:26 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	482	10373	4.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

0.581x of Shang-Chi T-15 (5.12M)

0.873x of Venom 2 T-15 (10.13M)

1.229x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-15 (5.53M)

2.201x of Uncharted T-15 (8.14M)

 

Adjusted Comp

5.642x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-15 (16.92M)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	502	10373	4.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp

0.566x of Shang-Chi T-14 (4.98M)

0.793x of Venom 2 T-14 (9.2M)

1.195x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-14 (5.38M)

2.057x of Uncharted T-14 (7.61M)

 

Adjusted Comp

4.961x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-14 (14.88M)

[Legion Again]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

RRR has crossed $3M in USA. $3,000,127 from 981 Locations at 7:45 PM PST

Inc Canada probably $3.3M. Final likely $3.5M+

Will Canada be reported?

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	892	15649	5.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.579x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.1M)

0.859x of Venom 2 T-7 (9.97M)

0.425x of Eternals T-7 (4.04M)

 

Well...I really hope this is a fluke.

Eternals comp seems most appropriate now. Morb under LC 😏

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Will Canada be reported?

Nope. Only 1 loc for THU will be reported, it did $3k.

 

There are 4 cinemas in Greater Toronto which make maximum biz and are basically become mafia for South Indian films, releasing movie in their shit cinemas and nothing get reported. 

 

If some producer try to release film in regular cinemas, there are incidents of screen tearing, pepper spray, etc.

 

This happened recently

Spoiler

 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	892	15649	5.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.579x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.1M)

0.859x of Venom 2 T-7 (9.97M)

0.425x of Eternals T-7 (4.04M)

 

Well...I really hope this is a fluke.

Looks like word about this movie's marketing has started spreading around.

[Porthos]

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	76	11162	11666	504	4.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

T-14 Comps  NOT TO BE TRUSTED - ONLY PROVIDED DUE TO NOT HAVING ANYTHING BETTER

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	160.00		40	315		0/108	16380/16695	1.89%		3034	16.61%		7.20m
F9	52.01		71	969		0/191	13181/14150	6.85%		4407	11.32%		3.69m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 tickets have been on sale for seven days longer than Ghostbusters: Afterlife had been on sale at this point in tracking while Sonic 2's tickets have been on sale for one day longer than F9's have been on sale.

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.86602x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [4.2m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Detective Pikachu's tickets had been on sale five days longer than Sonic 2's have been on sale at this point in tracking.

 

Regal & Matinee info coming in later as well as Wed showtime info.

 

====

 

Comps I have are objectively terrible, but I literally don't have anything better.  Been thinking about doing this for a bit, and decided to pull the trigger tonight based on some hunches and feelings I have about the trajectory of this flick.  Initial reactions aren't hurting here either.  But don't have my fancy chart system setup internally yet, so I don't want to spend the time getting the more nitty gritty details.

 

(let's see if this is the kiss-of-death or not )

Edited March 26, 2022 by Porthos