The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Pinacolada]

The Northman opening day sales look pretty good for a movie like that in the areas I've looked up but what do i know...

Edited April 6, 2022 by Pinacolada

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Northman isn't even on sale at Cinemark here. The Thursday AMC has 2 seats at 7...

 

On Friday, the 440 Dolby has 4. The 810 Dolby has 11. 

 

0 for 340. 0 for 710.

 

So the AMC has a total of 17 tickets between Thursday and Friday

[Porthos]

On 4/4/2022 at 11:49 PM, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	164	23326	24236	910	3.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	973
Total Seats Sold Today	82

 

T-10 Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	66.42		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	15.56%		5.85m
NTTD	95.79		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		7712	11.80%		5.94m
Dune	109.64		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	31.22%		5.59m
GB:A	171.70		99	530		0/108	16263/16793	3.16%		3034	29.99%		7.73m
Morbius	106.06		66	858		0/127	17884/18742	4.58%		3477	26.17%		6.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:     130/6346  [2.05% sold]
Matinee:    51/3710  [1.37% | 5.60% of all tickets sold]

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	23301	24368	1067	4.38%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	132
Total Seats Sold Today	157

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	71.51		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		5847	18.25%		6.29m
NTTD	102.79		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		7712	13.84%		6.37m
Dune	118.56		70	900		0/78	11142/12042	7.47%		2915	36.60%		6.05m
GB:A	183.97		50	580		0/116	16776/17356	3.34%		3034	35.17%		8.28m
Morbius	115.23		68	926		0/141	19381/20307	4.56%		3477	30.69%		6.57m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:       150/6478  [2.32% sold]
Matinee:    70/3926  [1.78% | 6.56% of all tickets sold]

 

==

 

Apologies for the delay, but one of the theaters I track was unreachable for over an hour (and right at the end of the Sonic track to boot ), and it just popped back up.

 

Anyway, I've seen better review bumps, but I've also seen worse.  See how it continues to play out in the coming days.

[Porthos]

On 4/4/2022 at 11:50 PM, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	109	12800	14430	1630	11.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	1512
Total Seats Sold Today	269

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	182.12		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		2352	69.30%		7.47m
SC	59.47		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	27.88%		5.23m
LTBC	53.67		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	21.14%		6.23m
GB:A	138.49		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		3034	53.72%		6.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	73.97		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	34.63%		5.50m
Sonic (adj)	---		257	1526		0/97	10885/12411	12.30%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 1.00808x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [4.9m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    487/1701   [28.63% sold]   +87 tickets]
Thursday sales:    1143/12729   [8.98% sold]   +182 tickets]
---    
Regal:        295/3246  [9.09% sold]
Matinee:    105/2466  [4.26% | 6.44% of all tickets sold]

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	119	13278	15374	2096	13.63%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	944
Total Seats Sold Today	466

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	197.36		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		2352	89.12%		8.09m
SC	63.92		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	35.85%		5.63m
LTBC	55.82		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		7712	27.18%		6.47m
GB:A	138.81		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	69.08%		6.25m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-2 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	79.51		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4407	44.38%		5.91m
Sonic (adj)	---		430	1956		0/107	11399/13355	14.65%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 1.08011x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [5.2m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    642/1701   [37.74% sold]   +155 tickets]
Thursday sales:    1454/13673   [10.63% sold]   +311 tickets]
---    
Regal:        366/3246  [11.28% sold]
Matinee:    130/2466  [5.27% | 6.20% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Oh, yes.  This is most certainly taking off. Well, relatively speaking. Those Wed sales are really helping, of course.  But unless they're burning up alllll the demand, that should be a precursor to/omen for fairly strong walkups. 

 

How strong? We'll find out within 36 hours.

[Legion Again]

On 3/14/2022 at 4:14 AM, Thanos Legion said:

I have a good feeling about Sonic 2. Thinking a top 5 post-pandemic OW is possible (pure gut, no data).

 

On 3/14/2022 at 4:41 AM, KnucklesXXR said:

Based on starting show count, theaters definitely don’t seem to hold that opinion. It would need to go over $76M OW for a top 5 huh?

Thinking a top 5 post-pandemic OW is possible (some gut, mostly data)

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

Thinking a top 5 post-pandemic OW is possible (some gut, most data)

 

Sonic 2 DOM OW > 2x Morbius DOM OW?

 

Might make for an interesting club.  Not sure I'd even IN, so I won't make it.  Plus "versus" clubs can be a little dicey.

 

Still.... 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

The single day denominator approach here remains fundamentally pretty volatile, but I was too lazy to do a multi day moving average. Maybe tomorrow. In any case people seemed interested yday, so:

	Daily pace %	Remaining sales	Remaining/daily	Extrap added	Extrap final	Preview actual	Comp
TSS	279.04%	1290	7.724550898	3599.640719	5695.640719	4.1	9.928625402
SC	95.10%	2568	5.240816327	2442.220408	4538.220408	8.8	6.830227397
LTBC	64.90%	3957	5.511142061	2568.192201	4664.192201	11.6	7.015641795
GB:A	139.94%	1524	4.576576577	2132.684685	4228.684685	4.5	6.271944984
F9	108.31%	1947	4.904282116	2285.395466	4241.395466	7.1	6.833198958
Geomean			5.494472354	2560.424117	4644.978797		7.275847709

 

Strong day in Sacto indeedily. Also Pika would likely rate extrapolate to ~5.9 based on the below

 

	Straight comp	Yday	Daily Change	Rate extrap diff	Extrap diff/daily change
TSS	8.09	7.47	0.62	1.838625402	2.965524842
SC	5.63	5.23	0.4	1.200227397	3.000568493
LTBC	6.47	6.23	0.24	0.5456417954	2.273507481
GB:A	6.25	6.23	0.02	0.02194498388	1.097249194
F9	5.91	5.5	0.41	0.9231989581	2.251704776

[katnisscinnaplex]

Here we go...

 

[Legion Again]

Lol, having ticketing site issues

[XXR vs XXR]

AMC has a queue. Not super long but 1-10 minutes I’m seeing on my refreshes 

[AdrianL]

I just selected my seats on Fandango and it's giving me a 30 minute queue... uhhhh

[cookieleeann]

I'm just having so much trouble trying to get Dr strange tickets on AMC. I expected some traffic but not this much already jeez

[filmlover]

Multiple shows that Thursday are already filling up fast near me and tickets haven't even been on sale for 40 minutes. Not No Way Home levels of insanity but still pretty huge.

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins isn't opening showtimes for me for 2-3 days but checking on ATOM, sales are already good % of NWH full day in 3 locs I checked. 

And... they already crossed Batman first 24 hours 👀

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins isn't opening showtimes for me for 2-3 days but checking on ATOM, sales are already good % of NWH full day in 3 locs I checked. 

And... they already crossed Batman first 24 hours 👀

 

300M OW

[BruiseCruise]

With that premium ticket pricing, maybe DS2 beats NWH

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

300M OW

If anyone on Reddit sees this, please note this is not representative of BoT or an official prediction!

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

With that premium ticket pricing, maybe DS2 beats NWH

 

 

No

[XXR vs XXR]

On 2/10/2022 at 5:17 PM, KnucklesXXR said:

After 6 hours of presales, The Batman is at 166 tickets sold for Thursday and still at 146 for Tuesday. All but 6 Thursday tickets are in the Dolby or IMAX.

Batman’s early IMAX screening makes this comp wonky but at the same theater, MOM has almost matched these numbers (combined) in under 100 minutes (312 vs 304).

[Old Spice]

Just waking up in Salt Lake City and holy cow, Strange is on 🔥🔥🔥! 92 tix already sold for Thursday at the Cinemark Sugarhouse, which is greater than the entire presale for Ghostbusters, Uncharted, Lost City, and Morbius.

 

PLFs around town are doing even better with most of the prime evening shows 60-80% sold.

 

Huuuuuge!!