The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

The main thing this summer has going on which 2019 lacked is Dominion in June, but the tier 2 stuff definitely looks weaker.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think summer is fine except August.

 

May has Doctor Strange and Top Gun. The 20th spot is kinda weak but Downton Abbey will do fine

 

June has a mega hit with Jurassic Park. Lightyear won't be Toy Story 4 level but should be 300m+ IMO. Both Black Phone and Elvis can be solid. Elvis should at least do Rocketman numbers and Black Phone ditto Ma numbers. It's really only missing a 3rd release but Top Gun will still be killing.

 

July has Thor and Minions. Peele is an easy bet. Bullet Train has lots of hype, great test screening reactions, and ability to hold well so it can do conceivably around Once Upon a Time numbers.

 

August 5th will have Bodies Bodies Bodies which has potential to be another Hereditary level hit for A24, at very least it'll do the 20m range of Midsommar in 2019

Edited April 15, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think summer is fine except August.

 

May has Doctor Strange and Top Gun. The 20th spot is kinda weak but Downton Abbey will do fine

 

June has a mega hit with Jurassic Park. Lightyear won't be Toy Story 4 level but should be 300m+ IMO. Both Black Phone and Elvis can be solid. Elvis should at least do Rocketman numbers and Black Phone ditto Ma numbers. It's really only missing a 3rd release but Top Gun will still be killing.

 

July has Thor and Minions. Peele is an easy bet. Bullet Train has lots of hype, great test screening reactions, and ability to hold well so it can do conceivably around Once Upon a Time numbers.

 

August 5th will have Bodies Bodies Bodies which has potential to be another Midsommar level hit for A24, at very least it'll do the 20m range of Midsommar in 2019

 

And septembers also very barren

 

Is no big movie going to try and take advantage of that 2 month period? The thor trailer might still debut pretty soonish, but if I was them id move it mid august

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think summer is fine except August.

 

May has Doctor Strange and Top Gun. The 20th spot is kinda weak but Downton Abbey will do fine

 

June has a mega hit with Jurassic Park. Lightyear won't be Toy Story 4 level but should be 300m+ IMO. Both Black Phone and Elvis can be solid. Elvis should at least do Rocketman numbers and Black Phone ditto Ma numbers. It's really only missing a 3rd release but Top Gun will still be killing.

 

July has Thor and Minions. Peele is an easy bet. Bullet Train has lots of hype, great test screening reactions, and ability to hold well so it can do conceivably around Once Upon a Time numbers.

 

August 5th will have Bodies Bodies Bodies which has potential to be another Hereditary level hit for A24, at very least it'll do the 20m range of Midsommar in 2019

Where the Crawdads Sing has major "surprise" potential. The book was a phenomenon that spent a few years on the bestsellers lists. If everything goes right for the movie I wouldn't rule out a Girls Trip type of run.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

And septembers also very barren

 

Is no big movie going to try and take advantage of that 2 month period? The thor trailer might still debut pretty soonish, but if I was them id move it mid august

 

 

I think September is fine, too. Better than August. Salem's Lot should be decent. Puss in Boots has a fanbase and will be first family-aiming movie since like Thor. Don't Worry Darling can be a sleeper--strong cast with a genre concept. And Bros can be a major surprise. The test screenings have gone amazing for it and Apatow still has a strong track record. Universal pushed it from August to take advantage of fall fests and give it buzz, the headlines of being first gay studio rom-com will help it. 

 

Maybe Are You There, God and The Woman King will do well

[ZackM]

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 3 Days
Showings Added	0	33	222
Seats Added	0	2,791	14,853
Seats Sold	3,186	4,630	16,935
4/14/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	6,914	264,866	1,166,292	22.71%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	6	36	172	483	842
ATP
$16.92

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think September is fine, too. Better than August. Salem's Lot should be decent. Puss in Boots has a fanbase and will be first family-aiming movie since like Thor. Don't Worry Darling can be a sleeper--strong cast with a genre concept. And Bros can be a major surprise. The test screenings have gone amazing for it and Apatow still has a strong track record. Universal pushed it from August to take advantage of fall fests and give it buzz, the headlines of being first gay studio rom-com will help it. 

 

Maybe Are You There, God and The Woman King will do well

Super Pets comes out end of July.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, filmlover said:

Super Pets comes out end of July.

Lol how did I forget. But yeah, maybe Superpets will be a nice little double. With the desolation of August, I can see families still going because what else?

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yikes at the Man From Toronto pivot. August is looking really empty now.

 

Looks like Sony is betting their summer on a pair of movies with serious breakout potential (Where the Crawdads Sing, Bullet Train). FWIW looking at the summer slate it appears that it's gonna be a rather light four months overall in terms of product as a result of the COVID/banished to streaming era. WB also has only two movies (Elvis and Super Pets) coming out the whole summer while Paramount is more or less betting their entire season on Top Gun. Universal seems to be the only studio with a diverse slate, mixing safe IPs (Jurassic World, Minions) with potential breakouts (Nope, The Black Phone).

Universal summer slate is honestly incredible...

[Cmasterclay]

I think this May-July looks strong as all hell, actually. 

 

I think September and October are weaker than the last couple normal years but still a few hits, October needs another live action movie though. August is as dire as pre-American Sniper Januarys used to be, just awful. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

11 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think September is fine, too. Better than August. Salem's Lot should be decent. Puss in Boots has a fanbase and will be first family-aiming movie since like Thor. Don't Worry Darling can be a sleeper--strong cast with a genre concept. And Bros can be a major surprise. The test screenings have gone amazing for it and Apatow still has a strong track record. Universal pushed it from August to take advantage of fall fests and give it buzz, the headlines of being first gay studio rom-com will help it. 

 

Maybe Are You There, God and The Woman King will do well

 

Yeah but puss, bros, and DWD (limited probably) are all after the 23rd, meaning that there's no real blockbusters coming out in either august or most of september, if something big releases on august 12 they'll have all the spotlight on them for likely over a month

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The main thing this summer has going on which 2019 lacked is Dominion in June, but the tier 2 stuff definitely looks weaker.

But Summer 2019 had better. TLK.

 

Edit: I didn't see June there. Do we have any non MCU big ($400m+) in July?

Edited April 15, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[DAJK]

KGF Chapter 2 should be listed as one of the top grossers on BOM tomorrow. It’s the number 3 movie in Canada today (below just sonic and dumbledore previews). 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Yeah but puss, bros, and DWD (limited probably) are all after the 23rd, meaning that there's no real blockbusters coming out in either august or most of september, if something big releases on august 12 they'll have all the spotlight on them for likely over a month

DWD will not be limited 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

KGF Chapter 2 should be listed as one of the top grossers on BOM tomorrow. It’s the number 3 movie in Canada today (below just sonic and dumbledore previews). 

$1M+ WED previews. THU looks like will be $750K, so $1.75M OD. FSS can see $3M range.

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

But Summer 2019 had better. TLK.

 

Edit: I didn't see June there. Do we have any non MCU big ($400m+) in July?

Aside from Thor, July is pretty much a mix of movies aiming for breakout status (Crawdads, Nope, Bullet Train, Super Pets). Aside from Thor the biggest release is Minions, which will probably really be a test as to how much interest is left in the Despicable Me franchise 5 years after the last movie.

[Pinacolada]

Not that it will be a hit but I wonder if George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing could pull a Blackkklansman and come out in August after its Cannes debut. Could help pad out August.

 

I'm surprised none of the studios are launching a blockbuster on Labor Day after Shang Chi blew up that weekend last year. I would've expected that to become a prime weekend, but it looks like nothing is there right now.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Pinacolada said:

Not that it will be a hit but I wonder if George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing could pull a Blackkklansman and come out in August after its Cannes debut. Could help pad out August.

 

I'm surprised none of the studios are launching a blockbuster on Labor Day after Shang Chi blew up that weekend last year. I would've expected that to become a prime weekend, but it looks like nothing is there right now.

Race movies have usually done well in August, Detroit being exception. (Butler, Compton..). The George Miller is going to be way too polarizing and weird to make much of an impact 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

FB3 currently has 83% RT audience verified…

[ZackM]

Fantastic Beasts 3 - Alpha

 

Theaters - 421

Showings - 2,950

Sold - 99,343

Total - 558,183

ATP - $15.24