The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, ZackM said:

First Top Gun: Maverick run for Alpha:

 

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Early Access Event Seat Report: T-12 days
5/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	229	254	23,228	59,823	38.83%
ATP
$23.90

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-13 days
5/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	195	196	8,117	41,245	19.68%
ATP
$13.62

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	3,565
Seats Added	695,335
Seats Sold	49,231
5/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	3,565	49,231	695,335	7.08%
ATP
$17.68

 

 

It had terrific boost yesterday for sure. BW was at  66333/462524 as of T-12. I wonder if the review boost will continue next 2 days and just the thursday number will be close. With ticket prices it will then be higher as BW operated in constrained environment in CA/NY. Plus parts of Canada were not functioning? So this could be targeting high teens with early shows at this point. 

 

Compared to Batman this has way more tuesday shows. For Batman it was just Imax. Here it appears all PLF are playing it on tuesday. So 4m early shows are possible. 

 

@ZackM please provide friday numbers tomorrow as well. BW was at 46290/775727 as of T-13. This one should be doing much better. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Compared to Batman this has way more tuesday shows. For Batman it was just Imax. Here it appears all PLF are playing it on tuesday. So 4m early shows are possible. 

Forgot to do comps for early shows.  Yeah, all PLF types are playing it Tuesday and selling really well.  

 

As of T-2 weeks

TG2 Tues - 970
TG2 Wed - 205

 - Total: 1175

Bat Tues - 358

Bat Wed - 489

 - Total: 847

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Forgot to do comps for early shows.  Yeah, all PLF types are playing it Tuesday and selling really well.  

 

As of T-2 weeks

TG2 Tues - 970
TG2 Wed - 205

 - Total: 1175

Bat Tues - 358

Bat Wed - 489

 - Total: 847

You tracked BO for Batman Tuesday. Can you give it a shot for TG2 :-) I am especially interested in Regal. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You tracked BO for Batman Tuesday. Can you give it a shot for TG2 🙂 I am especially interested in Regal. 

I don't know if I can add 970 shows on top of TG and JW3.  I may make an attempt but it'll be a weekend if I have a lot of spare time.

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You tracked BO for Batman Tuesday. Can you give it a shot for TG2 🙂 I am especially interested in Regal. 

Can't believe we are drawing comparison between TG2 and Batman, and that is not a too crazy idea at this point.

[motionpic05]

So, what is Firestarter looking at for OW?

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/12/2022 at 11:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Downton 2	T-7	Jax	6	12	9	103	1,686	6.11%
		Phx	6	8	1	68	1,212	5.61%
		Ral	8	10	16	136	1,093	12.44%
	Total		20	30	26	307	3,991	7.69%
Downton 2 (EA)	T-6	Jax	6	6	20	82	783	10.47%
		Phx	6	6	1	24	606	3.96%
		Ral	8	9	10	159	879	18.09%
	Total		20	21	31	265	2,268	11.68%
JW3+JP	T-28	Jax	2	2	4	108	225	48.00%
		Phx	5	5	3	263	564	46.63%
		Ral	2	2	1	89	188	47.34%
	Total		9	9	8	460	977	47.08%
Top Gun 2	T-14	Jax	7	111	43	680	18,617	3.65%
		Phx	6	68	25	476	13,195	3.61%
		Ral	8	69	28	559	8,176	6.84%
	Total		21	248	96	1,715	39,988	4.29%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	7	34	322	961	33.51%
		Phx	1	1	13	128	208	61.54%
		Ral	2	2	11	227	412	55.10%
	Total		8	10	58	677	1,581	42.82%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-13	Jax	2	2	4	82	245	33.47%
		Phx	2	2	0	78	434	17.97%
		Ral	1	1	0	32	118	27.12%
	Total		5	5	4	192	797	24.09%

 

Downton EA T-6 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.5x (1.91m)

 - NTTD EA - 1.36x (1.49m)

 - Respect EA - 2.14x

 

Downton T-7 comps

 - No Time to Die - .447x (2.33m)

 - F9 - .318x (2.26m)

 - Sonic 2 - .558x (2.78m)

 - Lost City - 1.54x (3.84m)

 - Ghostbusters - .53x (2.21m)

 

Downton + EA comp

 - Respect + EA - 3.51x (2.28m)

 

Top Gun T-14 comps

 - Black Widow - .905x (11.95m)

 - Eternals - 1.25x (11.84m)

 - Batman - .59x (10.365m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .566x (12.23m)

 

Skipped JW3 today for lack of time.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Downton 2	T-6	Jax	6	12	11	114	1,686	6.76%
		Phx	6	10	8	76	1,400	5.43%
		Ral	8	10	20	156	1,093	14.27%
	Total		20	32	39	346	4,179	8.28%
Downton 2 (EA)	T-5	Jax	6	6	13	95	783	12.13%
		Phx	6	6	3	27	606	4.46%
		Ral	8	9	24	183	879	20.82%
	Total		20	21	40	305	2,268	13.45%
JW3*	T-27	Jax	6	105	18	442	15,656	2.82%
		Phx	6	93	20	422	15,960	2.64%
		Ral	8	67	15	454	7,529	6.03%
	Total		20	265	1,318	1,318	39,145	3.37%
JW3+JP	T-27	Jax	2	2	0	108	225	48.00%
		Phx	5	5	2	265	564	46.99%
		Ral	2	2	0	89	188	47.34%
	Total		9	9	2	462	977	47.29%
Men	T-6	Jax	4	6	5	5	663	0.75%
		Phx	4	6	12	12	773	1.55%
		Ral	6	9	10	10	884	1.13%
	Total		14	21	27	27	2,320	1.16%
Top Gun 2	T-13	Jax	7	111	53	733	18,617	3.94%
		Phx	6	68	34	510	13,195	3.87%
		Ral	8	69	57	616	8,176	7.53%
	Total		21	248	144	1,859	39,988	4.65%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	7	33	355	961	36.94%
		Phx	1	1	8	136	208	65.38%
		Ral	2	2	19	246	412	59.71%
	Total		8	10	60	737	1,581	46.62%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	13	95	245	38.78%
		Phx	2	2	3	81	434	18.66%
		Ral	1	1	0	32	118	27.12%
	Total		5	5	16	208	797	26.10%

 

Downton EA T-5 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.6x (2.03m)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Respect EA - 2.21x

 

Downton T-6 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - House of Gucci - 3.76x (4.89m)

 - Sonic 2 - .57x (2.85m)

 - Lost City  - 1.7x (4.26m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 

Downton + EA comp

 - Respect + EA - 3.785x (2.46m)

 

Men T-6 comps

 - X - missed

 - Resident Evil - .51x (476k)

 - Night House - 1.93x (501k)

 - Firestarter - .82x

 

Top Gun T-13 comps

 - Black Widow - .912x (12.04m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - Batman - missed

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - missed

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .344x (2.44m)

 - Ghostbusters - .553x (2.29m)

 - NTTD - .48x (2.51m)

 - Dune - .48x (2.44m)

[Tinalera]

Top Gun Maverick

Toronto Ontario

Thurs May 26 (Taken May 13)

10 Theatres

60 shows

 

Total sold 667 (+350)

Total remaining 16109

Total Seats 16776

percentage 3.98 (up from 1.89)

 

Bit tricky up here, have to see where it goes. May 26 is one week past our May 24 weekend (don't ask lol), where people hit the cottages. We've been having beautiful weather up here, and that might lead to what some might consider a lower rate of presales. Im sure the movie will do well, but where we are this might be a case of more walkups and WOM.

 

 

[Tinalera]

Jurassic Dominion

Thurs June 9 (taken May 13)

Toronto Ontario

10 theatres

46 shows

 

Total sold 345 (+113)

Total remaining 11786

Total Seats 12131

Percentage 2.84 (up from 1.91)

 

Movie that is just under a month away, so nothing huge moving on the front right now. Maybe Doctor Strange 2 kind of has people taking a breather right now? Still far too early to make any calls, though will say I expected maybe a little bit more sales just by the IP, but again too early really. 

[titanic2187]

24 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Top Gun Maverick

Toronto Ontario

Thurs May 26 (Taken May 13)

10 Theatres

60 shows

 

Total sold 667 (+350)

Total remaining 16109

Total Seats 16776

percentage 3.98 (up from 1.89)

 

Bit tricky up here, have to see where it goes. May 26 is one week past our May 24 weekend (don't ask lol), where people hit the cottages. We've been having beautiful weather up here, and that might lead to what some might consider a lower rate of presales. Im sure the movie will do well, but where we are this might be a case of more walkups and WOM.

 

 

I suspect Canada will be the region where TG2 underperform in relative to other region in America since the patriotism undertone may not relate well with the crowd here. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Forgot to do comps for early shows.  Yeah, all PLF types are playing it Tuesday and selling really well.  

 

As of T-2 weeks

TG2 Tues - 970
TG2 Wed - 205

 - Total: 1175

Bat Tues - 358

Bat Wed - 489

 - Total: 847

IIRC, wasn't Batman a Tue IMAX exclusive, then Wed all other PLFs? Top Gun is just doing them all on Tue instead

 

And from what I can tell, the Wed shows for TG are only the AMC "Investor Connect" screenings, which are both standard format and from some spot checking, look to be placed in medium-sized auditoriums (presuming a capacity limit of ~200 for these shows)

 

Going to make it difficult to make apples to apples comparisons for sales for those two days

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Any Wednesday shows in your area?  

 

No AMCs locally, so no.  Also been checking periodically on the off chance someone gets one anyway, and still nada.

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

IIRC, wasn't Batman a Tue IMAX exclusive, then Wed all other PLFs? Top Gun is just doing them all on Tue instead

 

And from what I can tell, the Wed shows for TG are only the AMC "Investor Connect" screenings, which are both standard format and from some spot checking, look to be placed in medium-sized auditoriums (presuming a capacity limit of ~200 for these shows)

 

Going to make it difficult to make apples to apples comparisons for sales for those two days

Correct.  Batman ended with around 360 IMAX on Tuesday and 500 PLF shows on Wednesday (not much change in the two weeks leading up).   While it won't be a perfect comparison, it will be helpful to see just how much these early shows are eating into the Thursday previews.  

 

As for Wednesday, I haven't looked into any shows other than the ones in my regions, but I haven't seen any PLF showings pop up yet. 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

So this could be targeting high teens with early shows at this point. 

 

SACRAMENTO WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG. 

 

(NARRATOR:  Sacramento was not right all along)

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, Eric Strange said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 5/12/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
5/20/2022	Downton Abbey: A New Era	$17,000,000 – $21,000,000	+3%	$48,000,000 – $65,000,000	+3%	3,400	Focus Features
5/20/2022	Men					1,600	A24
5/27/2022	Bob’s Burgers	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$16,000,000 – $32,000,000			Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$95,000,000 – $125,000,000	+10%	$275,000,000 – $395,000,000	+10%		Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022	Crimes of the Future						NEON
6/10/2022	Jurassic World Dominion	$165,000,000 – $205,000,000		$460,000,000 – $575,000,000			Universal Pictures

 

@Shawn

 

Rioting it will be.

 

Spoiler

Perfectly reasonable prediction imo. Im a bit more optimistic for it, but that range is very realistic.

 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I don't know if I can add 970 shows on top of TG and JW3.  I may make an attempt but it'll be a weekend if I have a lot of spare time.

Ignore AMC/Cinemark/Drafthouse/Harkins. Just track the rest. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ignore AMC/Cinemark/Drafthouse/Harkins. Just track the rest. 

Down to 508...

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I suspect Canada will be the region where TG2 underperform in relative to other region in America since the patriotism undertone may not relate well with the crowd here. 

I can give a Canada update today

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Down to 508...

At least try Regal if possible. 

[EmpireCity]

The Black Phone goes on sale May 26th.