The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[DC Rich]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*wakes up*

 

WHO IS DOUBTING THE POWAH OF SACRAMENTO *****NOW*****!!!!!!!!

 

Whosoever, be he worthy, shall have the power

 

[Bigscrubnus]

13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

No worries! It's a just precautionary adjustment for the most part. A few industry sources confirmed rumors about the test screenings not going well, so I shifted the pinpoints down a hair until having a better chance to reassess overall activity next week when Top Gun is out of the way.

 

That said, the same sources have said screenings with kids are going very well... so I still think there's some critic-proof aspect that will win out as it has before with Jurassic.

 

TLDR: nothing to worry about, just erring slightly on the side of caution.

So you still think it’s going to be like a 180/190 OW?

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

So you still think it’s going to be like a 180/190 OW?

He thinks it’s going to be 160-210 like his range indicates.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, T-ReXXR said:

He thinks it’s going to be 160-210 like his range indicates.

Sizable if veracious

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

I think Regional numbers will always have the best raw predictive value.  My Michigan numbers back in 2019/2020 were really consistent.  Tracking alpha is great, but the raw numbers are less predictive due to lack of diversity.  That said, with enough data, and proper interpretations, alpha data should become really powerful.

MTCs are great. Sometime regionals like Philly for this one have their variances. We are used to have 2 MTCs data and those two covers almost every type of audience. With single MTC now few assumption need to be made.

 

I am trying to make for the non-MTC areas. In last 6 months we started tracking 3 smaller chains, will likely add a few more in coming period. 

 

The Alpha data was suggesting $13.5-14M ish for TG2, eventually came around $14-14.25M. So worked out fine.

[ZackM]

I'm down to write scripts for tracking some of the easier small chains if other people want to then be stewards of those chains.

Edited May 27, 2022 by ZackM

[Inceptionzq]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I'm down to write scripts for tracking some of the easier small chains if other people want to then be stewards of those chains.

Marcus Theaters would be a great addition 👀

[Porthos]

BTW, let's not forget my partner in crime:

 

 

@Inceptionzq turns out it was more like this:

 

 

(And XXR as well, too, but he already got his props 😛)

Edited May 27, 2022 by Porthos
made the text a bit bigger on the preview version

[M37]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

I'm down to write scripts for tracking some of the easier small chains if other people want to then be stewards of those chains.

I might be willing to volunteer for one of those internships. What all would be entailed? (You can PM/DM me so as not to clog up the thread here)

[El Squibbonator]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Burgers Preview MTC1 - 25845/154432 346494.15 1360 shows.

 

Run started around 5PM PST. So thinking 28k finish. ~ 1.4m previews. 

That's. . . actually not bad. 

[EmpireCity]

Saw the long range forecast for The Black Phone.  I think the hunger for a really good summer horror film is going to be high by the time we get to late June.  

 

Won't be shocked to see a much bigger opening.  It is gut feeling, but $40m+ opening wouldn't surprise me.  

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Saw the long range forecast for The Black Phone.  I think the hunger for a really good summer horror film is going to be high by the time we get to late June.  

 

Won't be shocked to see a much bigger opening.  It is gut feeling, but $40m+ opening wouldn't surprise me.  

30% bigger opening than Scream? I won’t say impossible but I would say improbable.

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

30% bigger opening than Scream? I won’t say impossible but I would say improbable.

 

Yep.  I know, sounds crazy and might be way off, but there hasn't been a large mainstream thriller/horror in a while and will be prime for a break out.  

[ZackM]

8 hours ago, ZackM said:

Final Friday presales for Maverick:

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 7,270

Sold - 245,620

Total - 1,298,996

ATP - $15.75
 

 

Friday update for Maverick:

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 7,326

Sold - 379,720

Total - 1,304,722

ATP - $15.14

Edited May 27, 2022 by ZackM

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Yep.  I know, sounds crazy and might be way off, but there hasn't been a large mainstream thriller/horror in a while and will be prime for a break out.  

The movie have excellent reviews too, it was just from Fantastic Fest premiere last year, but if keeps that good when new reviews come in, it can create a perfect storm of first ´´big´´ horror movie in quite some time with great buzz surrounding it about the quality and good WOM from audiences

 

It´s hard to expect anything now but i wouldn´t be surprised with 40M too if everything goes right

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Friday update for Maverick:

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 7,326

Sold - 379,720

Total - 1,304,722

ATP - $15.14

Where do you see it end. 450K?

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Where do you see it end. 450K?

 Possibly around that but likely 430K ish.

Edited May 28, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Lasagna]

23 hours ago, Eric Belcher said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1676	23705	7.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

2.648x of Venom 2 T-14 (30.71M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1748	23705	7.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

2.227x of F9 T-13 (15.81M)

2.590x of Venom 2 T-13 (30.04M)

[ZackM]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 Possibly around that but likely 430K ish.

It was at 420k as of an hourish ago.  So yeah, probably 430-435 range.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

It was at 420k as of an hourish ago.  So yeah, probably 430-435 range.

So around $6.6m. So 20% share leads to 33m. I was hoping for 7m from alpha.