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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted (edited)

Jurassic Dominion

Thurs June 9 (taken Tues June 7)

 

Toronto Ontario

10 Theatres

75 Shows

Total Sales 1126 (up from 562)

Total Remaining 19276

Total seats 20402 (up from 12134)

No Sellouts 

Percentage 5.52

 

Southwest Ontario

10 theatres

54 showings (up from 35)

Total Sales 1175 (up from 598)

Total remaining 10002

Total seats 11177 (up from 7842)

no sellouts 

Percentage 10.5 (up from 6.27)

 

Interesting comparison as SW ontario percentage almost double in sales compared to Toronto area-whether that relates to lesser seats might be a thing, but still pretty interesting to see. I will have Friday numbers up tomorrow for both regions (oh BOY I cant wait for the seat availability dump for friday sales.....lol)

 

 

 

 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 6/6/2022 at 10:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New* Sold Seats % Sold
Black Phone T-17 Jax 6 16 3 19 1,959 0.97%
    Phx 5 13 11 22 2,108 1.04%
    Ral 7 18 0 25 1,933 1.29%
  Total   18 47 14 66 6,000 1.10%
Black Phone (EA) T-9 Jax 2 2 1 1 141 0.71%
    Phx 2 2 1 3 229 1.31%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 91 0.00%
  Total   5 5 2 4 461 0.87%
Elvis T-17 Jax 6 26 17 55 4,520 1.22%
    Phx 6 16 22 34 2,103 1.62%
    Ral 8 20 16 34 2,074 1.64%
  Total   20 62 55 123 8,697 1.41%
Elvis (EA) T-15 Jax 2 2 11 65 403 16.13%
  Total   2 2 11 65 403 16.13%
JW3 Dominion T-3 Jax 7 109 368 1,465 16,155 9.07%
    Phx 6 96 362 1,391 16,515 8.42%
    Ral 8 80 386 1,387 9,318 14.89%
  Total   21 285 1,116 4,243 41,988 10.11%
JW3+JP T-3 Jax 5 5 9 190 811 23.43%
    Phx 6 6 19 387 638 60.66%
    Ral 7 7 41 204 688 29.65%
  Total   18 18 69 781 2,137 36.55%
Minions 2 T-24 Jax 5 87 0 0 13,662 0.00%
    Phx 1 12 0 0 1,484 0.00%
    Ral 3 25 0 0 3,228 0.00%
  Total   9 124 0 0 18,374 0.00%

 

*All new sales since Friday morning*

 

JW3 T-3 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.185x (15.64m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .796x (14m)

 - Eternals - 1.6x (15.16m)

 - F9 - 2.93x (20.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.07x (15.73m)

 

Elvis + EA T-17 comp

 - Downton Abbey 2 + EA - .71x (1.29m)

 

Only included Minions so I could point out the massive amount of showtimes it's starting with.  Only 9 theaters in my regions have listed so far and it's close to 14 shows per theater (a couple are over 20 already).  2pm shows plus IMAX/3D/other PLF are adding up quick.

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Black Phone T-16 Jax 6 16 3 22 1,959 1.12%
    Phx 5 13 0 22 2,108 1.04%
    Ral 7 18 0 25 1,933 1.29%
  Total   18 47 3 69 6,000 1.15%
Black Phone (EA) T-8 Jax 2 2 0 1 141 0.71%
    Phx 2 2 1 4 229 1.75%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 91 0.00%
  Total   5 5 1 5 461 1.08%
Elvis T-16 Jax 6 26 7 62 4,520 1.37%
    Phx 6 16 13 47 2,103 2.23%
    Ral 8 20 14 48 2,074 2.31%
  Total   20 62 34 157 8,697 1.81%
Elvis (EA) T-14 Jax 2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
  Total   2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
JW3 Dominion T-2 Jax 7 109 354 1,819 16,155 11.26%
    Phx 6 91 232 1,623 15,670 10.36%
    Ral 8 85 230 1,617 9,690 16.69%
  Total   21 285 816 5,059 41,515 12.19%
JW3+JP T-2 Jax 5 5 4 194 811 23.92%
    Phx 6 6 3 390 638 61.13%
    Ral 7 7 12 216 688 31.40%
  Total   18 18 19 800 2,137 37.44%
Lightyear T-9 Jax 5 69 14 14 9,714 0.14%
    Phx 2 17 12 12 1,839 0.65%
    Ral 7 30 22 22 2,692 0.82%
  Total   14 116 48 48 14,245 0.34%
Lightyear (EA) T-8 Jax 2 2 1 1 403 0.25%
  Total   2 2 1 1 403 0.25%
Minions 2 T-23 Jax 6 101 11 11 16,556 0.07%
    Phx 6 66 43 43 12,191 0.35%
    Ral 8 52 13 13 6,699 0.19%
  Total   20 219 67 67 35,446 0.19%

 

I'm over 750 shows and Lightyear is still missing theaters.  JW3 is also missing a theater in Phoenix that usually goes on sale Monday of release week and sells out most of its shows. If they don't add preview shows then I'll have to adjust comps a little.

 

JW3 T-2 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.238x (16.34m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .806x (14.19m)

 - Eternals - 1.677x (15.93m)

 - F9 - 2.92x (20.76m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.08x (15.89m)

 - Dune - 3.357x (17.12m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.64x (19.24m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.415x (21.25m)

(Throwing in more comps as we get closer to release)

 

Lightyear T-9 comps

 - Bad Guys - 1.17x (1.35m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 3.43x (4.49m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .57x (2.58m)

(Only been on sale a few hours so not really helpful)

 

Black Phone T-16 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .296x (1.23m)

 - Morbius - .196x (1.12m)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.214m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Elvis T-16 comps

 - No Time to Die - .571x (2.5m)

 - F9 - .312x (2.21m)

 - Ghostbusters - .674x (2.8m)

 

Minions 2 T-23 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .52x (2.61m)

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

Alright figured Id set up friday anyway....even knowing there will be more tomorrow...but DATA am I rite??

 

Jurassic Dominion

Fri June 10 (taken June 7)

 

Toronto Ontario 

10 theatres

67 shows

Total sold 1759

Total Remaining 15297

Total Seats 17056

1 Sellout

Percentage 10.3

 

SouthWest Ontario

10 theatres

53 shows

total sold 2158

Total remaining 9418

Total seats 11576

No Sellouts

Percentage 18.6

 

As stated earlier expect the seats available/sold to go higher due to adding of additional seats tomorrow as Cineplex likes to do, but its a snapshot. Also Southwest ontario includes London, Sarnia, Chatham, Cambridge, Windsor, Waterloo, Brantford, Kitchener, St Thomas.

 

 

 

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Black Phone T-16 Jax 6 16 3 22 1,959 1.12%
    Phx 5 13 0 22 2,108 1.04%
    Ral 7 18 0 25 1,933 1.29%
  Total   18 47 3 69 6,000 1.15%
Black Phone (EA) T-8 Jax 2 2 0 1 141 0.71%
    Phx 2 2 1 4 229 1.75%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 91 0.00%
  Total   5 5 1 5 461 1.08%
Elvis T-16 Jax 6 26 7 62 4,520 1.37%
    Phx 6 16 13 47 2,103 2.23%
    Ral 8 20 14 48 2,074 2.31%
  Total   20 62 34 157 8,697 1.81%
Elvis (EA) T-14 Jax 2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
  Total   2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
JW3 Dominion T-2 Jax 7 109 354 1,819 16,155 11.26%
    Phx 6 91 232 1,623 15,670 10.36%
    Ral 8 85 230 1,617 9,690 16.69%
  Total   21 285 816 5,059 41,515 12.19%
JW3+JP T-2 Jax 5 5 4 194 811 23.92%
    Phx 6 6 3 390 638 61.13%
    Ral 7 7 12 216 688 31.40%
  Total   18 18 19 800 2,137 37.44%
Lightyear T-9 Jax 5 69 14 14 9,714 0.14%
    Phx 2 17 12 12 1,839 0.65%
    Ral 7 30 22 22 2,692 0.82%
  Total   14 116 48 48 14,245 0.34%
Lightyear (EA) T-8 Jax 2 2 1 1 403 0.25%
  Total   2 2 1 1 403 0.25%
Minions 2 T-23 Jax 6 101 11 11 16,556 0.07%
    Phx 6 66 43 43 12,191 0.35%
    Ral 8 52 13 13 6,699 0.19%
  Total   20 219 67 67 35,446 0.19%

 

I'm over 750 shows and Lightyear is still missing theaters.  JW3 is also missing a theater in Phoenix that usually goes on sale Monday of release week and sells out most of its shows. If they don't add preview shows then I'll have to adjust comps a little.

 

JW3 T-2 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.238x (16.34m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .806x (14.19m)

 - Eternals - 1.677x (15.93m)

 - F9 - 2.92x (20.76m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.08x (15.89m)

 - Dune - 3.357x (17.12m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.64x (19.24m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.415x (21.25m)

(Throwing in more comps as we get closer to release)

 

Lightyear T-9 comps

 - Bad Guys - 1.17x (1.35m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 3.43x (4.49m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .57x (2.58m)

(Only been on sale a few hours so not really helpful)

 

Black Phone T-16 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .296x (1.23m)

 - Morbius - .196x (1.12m)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.214m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Elvis T-16 comps

 - No Time to Die - .571x (2.5m)

 - F9 - .312x (2.21m)

 - Ghostbusters - .674x (2.8m)

 

Minions 2 T-23 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .52x (2.61m)

I think something like Sonic 2 would be a better comp for Lightyear.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think something like Sonic 2 would be a better comp for Lightyear.


Personally, thanks to only 10 days of pre-sales (including day of release), I don’t think there will be a good comp for Lightyear, though we should get a good intuitive sense of the range fairly quickly

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

Despite Lightyear having links to Toy Story, its a movie that stands almost on its own. Not sure if early PS will provide that much info. This will ramp up once reviews are out next week. I wish they had let reviews out earlier but probably wanted to do it post Dino movie OW. 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 6/6/2022 at 1:55 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-3 JW3 PLF 30 814 2,850 6,386 44.63% $16.40 $46,745.90
    Standard 75 1,071 2,280 10,357 22.01% $11.92 $27,173.36
  JW3 Total   105 1,885 5,130 16,743 30.64% $14.41 $73,919.26
T-4 JW3 (Fri) PLF 60 3,451 3,451 12,895 26.76% $15.57 $53,724.34
    Standard 100 1,979 1,979 13,191 15.00% $11.48 $22,718.08
  JW3 (Fri) Total   160 5,430 5,430 26,086 20.82% $14.08 $76,442.42

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-3 JW3 N 84 1,542 4,353 13,674 31.83% $15.06 $65,546.72
    Y 21 343 777 3,069 25.32% $10.78 $8,372.54
  JW3 Total   105 1,885 5,130 16,743 30.64% $14.41 $73,919.26
T-4 JW3 (Fri) N 81 3,763 3,763 13,301 28.29% $15.10 $56,815.66
    Y 79 1,667 1,667 12,785 13.04% $11.77 $19,626.76
  JW3 (Fri) Total   160 5,430 5,430 26,086 20.82% $14.08 $76,442.42

 

*New sales since 6/1*

 

JW3 T-3 comp

 - DS 2 - .407x (14.65m)

 - NWH - .3x (14.98m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.11x (19.55m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.014x (21.9m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.677x (24.65m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.18x (22.78m)

 

Previews looking much better here than my regionals.  

 

JW3 Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .381x (27.42m)

 - Batman - 1.17x (40.9m)

 - DS2 - .555x (30.35m)

 - TG2 - 1.53x (49.94m)

 

ATP lower on Friday, almost 50% of shows have matinee pricing (about 30% of sales at the moment)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-2 JW3 PLF 32 391 3,241 6,844 47.36% $16.25 $52,681.27
    Standard 81 649 2,929 11,075 26.45% $11.81 $34,592.32
  JW3 Total   113 1,040 6,170 17,919 34.43% $14.14 $87,273.59
T-3 JW3 (Fri) PLF 60 656 4,107 12,895 31.85% $15.48 $63,563.29
    Standard 104 590 2,569 13,607 18.88% $11.37 $29,211.75
  JW3 (Fri) Total   164 1,246 6,676 26,502 25.19% $13.90 $92,775.04

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-2 JW3 N 92 812 5,165 14,850 34.78% $14.82 $76,533.38
    Y 21 228 1,005 3,069 32.75% $10.69 $10,740.21
  JW3 Total   113 1,040 6,170 17,919 34.43% $14.14 $87,273.59
T-3 JW3 (Fri) N 82 717 4,480 13,405 33.42% $14.97 $67,087.67
    Y 82 529 2,196 13,097 16.77% $11.70 $25,687.37
  JW3 (Fri) Total   164 1,246 6,676 26,502 25.19% $13.90 $92,775.04

 

JW3 Thu T-2 comp

 - DS 2 - .455x (16.385m)

 - NWH - .344x (17.23m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.198x (21.08m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.103x (23.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.706x (25.07m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.258x (24.28m)

 

Ramping up in a really good way!

 

JW3 Fri T-3 comps

 - NWH - .436x (31.39m)

 - Batman - 1.24x (43.5m)

 - DS2 - .612x (33.48m)

 - TG2 - 1.62x (53.01m)

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titanic2187 Summer Tentpole

titanic2187

Posted
Posted

How strong the presale momentum in the last week is depend on how long Universal can deceive people for believing this movie generate a healthy early review. Currently at 88% with 8 reviews and earlier on was 89% with 9 reviews on RT My local theater chain has started referring this score in their webpage. Hope it doesn't backfire. 

281136816_1200610087362851_1324217324623  

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, June 9:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 203 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 713 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 232 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 104 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 153 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 554 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.520 (17 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.483.

 

Comps (both counted for Thursday): Uncharted (44M OW) had on Wednesday of its release week 1.062 sold tickets = x3.28 with 1 day left for JW3.

And Top Gun: Maverick (126.7M OW) had 2.864 sold tickets on Tuesday of its release week = x1.21.
 

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, June 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 620 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 603 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 274 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 129 (16 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 148 (19 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 619 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.775 (26 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.168.

Not frontloaded at all in my theaters, a good sign.
 

Comps (all counted for Friday): The worst comp first: F9 had on Monday of its release week 1.656 sold tickets and 2.812 on Wednesday = ca. 2.234 sold tickets on Tuesday (probably it would have been a bit less because the jumps from Tuesday to Wednesday are bigger) = x1.87 = 130.5M for JW3.

TG: M had on Tuesday of its release week 3.235 sold tickets = x1.29 = 163.4M for JW3

and Uncharted had on Wednesday of its release week 982 sold tickets = x4.24 = 186.6M with 1 day left for JW3.

 

I still can't complain. The Thursday presales are decent and the Friday presales look good.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Porthos said:


Personally, thanks to only 10 days of pre-sales (including day of release), I don’t think there will be a good comp for Lightyear, though we should get a good intuitive sense of the range fairly quickly

Yeah, a 10-day window makes is really an outlier, but if a stretch comp is better than nothing, maybe Shang-Chi? A mostly standalone feature from a broader IP, which also had a short presale run. By T-10, SC had sold less <25% of its final Thursday total, way below other MCU films, and TS4 had $12M thur (10x IM), so its probably less comparable to a true family film like Sonic, as the fan base has aged

 

Or one could always use Vemon:rofl:

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, a 10-day window makes is really an outlier, but if a stretch comp is better than nothing, maybe Shang-Chi? A mostly standalone feature from a broader IP, which also had a short presale run. By T-10, SC had sold less <25% of its final Thursday total, way below other MCU films, and TS4 had $12M thur (10x IM), so its probably less comparable to a true family film like Sonic, as the fan base has aged

 

Or one could always use Vemon:rofl:

 

The other major variable, and one that won't be solved just waiting until day of release, is ATP.  Gonna be a lot more kids tickets sold for this, even if it isn't a true Toy Story installment.  That and the dearth of PLF (it really is hurting in that department) is gonna skew the price-per-ticket down and muck with the comps a bit, especially ones that had a lot of EA.

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