The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

 

Uh.... the lol, wut was for your last part of not being in the Top 2 films this weekend.  

[Sandro Mazzola]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Uh.... the lol, wut was for your last part of not being in the Top 2 films this weekend.  

 

I mean.....

[EmpireCity]

Just now, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

I mean.....

 

You mean what?

[Sandro Mazzola]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

You mean what?

 

I think TG vs LY will be an awful lot closer than most think... both mid 40s.

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

I think TG vs LY will be an awful lot closer than most think... both mid 40s.

Lightyear mid 40s?

[ZeeSoh]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

I think it was a good day for Lightyear, but I was hoping for more.  Based on Santikos I'd have to guess somewhere in the 5m range for true Thursday.

 

Thor 4 (3 days) comps

 - DS2 - missed

 - NWH - .308x (15.41m)

 

18 hours ago, Eric Lightyear said:

People may balk at JC and Encanto's drops, but those were way more walk-up driven. I also don't see it going as low as Sonic 2, so it's in an odd inbetween of movies that I guess will lead to...5.5M? Hopefully 6M, because like sub-60 is embarrassing.

 

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

 

Something that might be important to note is that all of these comps, besides Ghostbusters, had a Thursday start time of 6PM. With that start time, I think that a lot of the family walkup/same day business will be captured, but a lot of that may be missing with this 3PM start time. I think Drafthouse is kinda showing what I'm talking about with the chain being less dependent on walkups, so the Encanto comp doesn't seem super low like Megaplex and Denver. Plus I didn't get the Wednesday numbers right before start time, so those will make the comps undershoot a little. And of course adjustments upward should be made for all these comps because of ATP, closures, and whatnot. So I'll go with 5.4M for overall previews

 

17 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-1hr comps

 - Bad Guys - 6.69x (7.7m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.51x (5.27m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.25x (6.08m)

 - Free Guy - 2.86x (6.29m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - missed

All PG movies - 4.88m

All animated movies - 6.22m

All 3pm previews - 4.94m

All movies - 4.92m

 

I hate that I missed the last Sonic update.  Walkups were pretty good; couldn't keep up with Bad Guys and Encanto with their total sales being much smaller (higher % increase).  My gut tells me to stick with 5.5m, but I feel like it could possibly reach 6m so I'll put my final prediction at 5.8m for true Thursday.  That would mean full previews of ~6.5m.

Well done guys, you were close to the actual numbers. Especially @Inceptionzq who was almost bang on!

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

You mean what?

There’s a small chance TGM could outdo Lightyear this week if Lightyear’s multiple isn’t strong enough.

[Tinalera]

Lightyear

SW/Toronto Ontario

June 17 (final count)

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
SW Fri	19	145	1445	30632	32077	0.045

 

Comp (friday only)

JW3 X.2205 (13.01 million)

 

 

 

 

[M37]

On 6/16/2022 at 11:24 AM, M37 said:

Another round of tracking updates, and still very solid growth rates for LY sales, on par with Venom. Barring stagnation today, looking to me like $7M in previews is happening, with $8M possible. Expecting ~75% increase from T-1 to T-1hr/final for most tracking samples, and an Alpha final total of around ~110K

 

Even if all that verifies, how it tracks over the weekend is creating some divergent opinions, whether the IM is below the 10x of TS4, or is less fan-heavy and backloaded with FD boost, matching or even exceeding the 12x IM of Sonic back in April

Denver = +90%

Philly = +73%

Megaplex = +60%

Drafthouse = +54%

Sacto = +51%

Jax = +48%

Phoenix = +22%

Raleigh = +44%

Jax/Pho/Ral = +44%

Alpha = No official total, but @ZackM sales had basically doubled, after being at 48K Thur/56K total the day before

 

Not only did the projected 75% increase in most markets not materialize (for comparison purposes, JWD was +45-50% mostly from T-1 to T-1hr) , but LY looks to have overindexed decently in metro/cities tracking markets. That urban skew doesn't give me much confidence in a high multiplier (>10x): TS4 had just shy of a 4x Thu/Fri on its way to a (Edit: not FD weekend) 10x, and I'm not sure we're going to see a $15M TFri here

Edited June 17, 2022 by M37

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

TS4 had just shy of a 4x Thu/Fri on its way to a FD weekend 10x, and I'm not sure we're going to see a $15M TFri here

Agrees with most of the post but fwiw TS4 didn’t have FD, off by a week.

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Well done guys, you were close to the actual numbers. Especially @Inceptionzq who was almost bang on!

@Porthos bring shame to tracking thread.

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

So let's call for 6.4m +/- .3m.

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos bring shame to tracking thread.

 

 

Sacramento:

 

 

Spoiler

Joking only joking Porthos!

 

[M37]

16 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Agrees with most of the post but fwiw TS4 didn’t have FD, off by a week.

You’re absolutely right - I had that wrong all week. Just assumed that -14% Sun was due to FD

[BruiseCruise]

Odd that TGM beats Elvis next weekend?

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos bring shame to tracking thread.

 

 

16 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Sacramento:

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Joking only joking Porthos!

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

12 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Odd that TGM beats Elvis next weekend?

Pretty good IMO. Currently expecting $20-23M for Elvis and $26-29M for TGM.

[Porthos]

FWIW, I decided to check and LY over-indexed even more than FB3 did.

 

FB3 comp = 5.5m

 

Can't even blame the number of EA shows we had on Wed which did about 17% of the total sales.  If I remove every single one of them, I still get a comp of 5.3m. Lightyear just over-performed in a couple of markets/chains (here, Harkins and katnisscineplex main overlook).

[Menor the Destroyer]

38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Lightyear Harkins Final

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	11	3,448	1,869	54.21%	$29,289	$15.67
Thursday	341	83,181	12,110	14.56%	$136,259	$11.25
Total	352	86,629	13,979	16.14%	$165,548	$11.84

 

Comps

0.405x Jurassic World: Dominion - $7.20M (THU alone $6.25M)

0.849x Eternals - $8.07M (THU alone $7M)

1.525x Sonic 2 (8 locs & THU only) - $7.75M 

 

Did better here than other places. THU only comps ranges from $6.25-7.75M. Adjusted for ATP will probably be 5-10% lower for JWD & Eternals comps. 

 

Based on Harkins data, can estimate rest chains, previews probably around $5.5-5.75M on THU.

 

Something about pots and kettles

(if I had guessed from the data in here I would've been way off as well)

Edited June 17, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

 

 

 

Something about pots and kettles

(if I had guessed from the data in here I would've been way off as well)

Yeah, like I said, some markets were clearly over-indexing while some weren’t (Denver, Philly).

 

Just a weird bifurcated result, really.  I’m just gonna chalk it up to Chapek’s Law being one of those things that happens in tracking. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

45 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

Pretty good IMO. Currently expecting $20-23M for Elvis and $26-29M for TGM.

20-23 for Elvis? Why do you say this? None of the tracking here seems to indicate that. It looks above Lost City here. That would be a disaster and lower than Rocketman's OW despite Dolby and price inflation