The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

But that 41K for Thor was partially a catch-up from previous days of diminished sales, and a weak total for MoM in context of its final week trajectory. For T-2 & T-1, it’s 77K vs 68K, so if you want to extrapolate for T-0, that’s a least a more reasonable comparison 

 

If Wednesday is still being inflated by catchup from holiday weekend, then it would be quite possible for that inflation to extend to same-day sales as well. Plus, I think the order of the days matters for that 77k vs 68k comparison. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

But that 41K for Thor was partially a catch-up from previous days of diminished sales, and a weak total for MoM in context of its final week trajectory. For T-2 & T-1, it’s 77K vs 68K, so if you want to extrapolate for T-0, that’s a least a more reasonable comparison 

 

It was mostly expected that Thor will have bigger final day than DSitMoM, all it needed to was match it in day before. So it won't be really surprising if it even hit 175K.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13395	13695	300	2.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	n/a*
Total Seats Sold Today	28

* NOTE: The two added showings were at the local drive-in theater which finally checked in.

 

T-16 Comps

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.28		49	827		0/91	13323/14150	5.84%		4407	6.76%		2.70m
TSS	98.36		25	305		0/81	13647/13952	2.19%		2352	12.76%		4.03m
LTBC	40.87		59	734		0/153	25059/25793	2.85%		7712	3.89%		4.74m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     60/3963  [1.51% sold]
Matinee:      8/861  [0.93% | 2.67% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very nice day, albeit boosted by a couple of group sales at two different theaters.  Against my better judgement roped in LTBC, if temporarily.  Will probably bring in NTTD in a day or three.  Not really sure about any other comps, since none are probably terribly useful here.

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13383	13695	312	2.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	34.74		71	898		0/91	13252/14150	6.35%		4407	6.99%		2.58m
TSS	98.42		12	317		0/81	13635/13952	2.27%		2352	13.27%		4.04m
LTBC	39.34		59	793		0/153	25000/25793	3.07%		7712	4.05%		4.56m
NTTD	46.29		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		3737	8.35%		2.87m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     60/3963  [1.51% sold]
Matinee:      8/861  [0.93% | 2.56% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	311	28171	39441	11270	28.57%

 

Total Showings Capped Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	60
Total Seats Added Today	5740
Total Seats Sold Today	1161

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	194.31		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	122.55%		26.86m
NWH	48.78		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	39.99%		24.39m
MoM	68.01		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	53.37%		24.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      1318/6632  [19.87% sold]
Matinee:    667/3713  [17.96% | 5.92% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

Hard to suss, exactly, what was catch-up from 4th of July and what was a review bump.  As it is, it almost matched MoM today.  If  it matches MoM in sales the rest of the way, that'd point to around 26.5m-ish in previews.  If it does 80% of MoM the rest of the way, locally, that'd be about 25.5m. 

 

Have a better idea tomorrow just how much of this was catching up and how much wasn't (MoM sold 1695 tickets locally on its T-1 ftr).

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	312	25975	39491	13516	34.23%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	50
Total Seats Sold Today	2246

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	194.64		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9196	146.98%		26.90m
NWH	53.92		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	47.96%		26.96m
MoM	73.99		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	64.01%		26.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      1617/6632  [24.38% sold]
Matinee:    919/3713  [24.75% | 6.80% of all tickets sold]

 

===

Some of y'all doubt Marvel way way waaaaaaay too easily.

 

...

 

Also:

 

On 7/5/2022 at 12:39 AM, Porthos said:

FWIW, I would not be surprised to see the slack [ed: from the super low July 4th total] spread out over Tu/We/Th instead off it all piling in tomorrow.

 

Good analysis, past me! 👍

 

(so far, at least )

[charlie Jatinder]

Best day before release ever in Sacramento. 💥

[charlie Jatinder]

I won't be able to do Harkins post till late. Its 5K+ day. 

 

Solid day. Now onto 20K+ final day.

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Thor T-2 Marcus (from last night) (2-day pace)

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 1143 (+227)

Seats Sold: 37783/158737 (+7276)

 

Just don't have time for Friday today, way too many errors and don't have time to manually count all those shows. 

Thor T-1 Marcus 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 1190 (+47)

Seats Sold: 45903/163496 (+8120)

 

Higher 1-day pace than the last two days combined, mirroring the strong bumps others are seeing. Will have one more update from an hour or two before shows start, but won't be able to post that one until later. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

6 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

If Wednesday is still being inflated by catchup from holiday weekend, then it would be quite possible for that inflation to extend to same-day sales as well. Plus, I think the order of the days matters for that 77k vs 68k comparison. 

Agree there may still be come catch-up effect left over for Thursday, but on the order of 5-10K, not 30-50K. Normally I would agree with you on the order mattering, but in this specific case, not if its just the holiday effect (including the later addition of more Thursday shows) that just delayed the sales. Its a false decline followed by a false incline, and should not just take the latter at face value and use it as the jumping off point

 

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It was mostly expected that Thor will have bigger final day than DSitMoM, all it needed to was match it in day before. So it won't be really surprising if it even hit 175K.

I actually agree that Thor will have a better final day that Strange .... just not in the way you think, and that's what those projected Alpha sales were based on. With that said, now that all the T-1 data is in, Alpha is lagging a bit behind the other tracking samples, so perhaps there is a bit more room to outpace Strange over the final day.

 

In any case, we'll know in like 18 hours

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree there may still be come catch-up effect left over for Thursday, but on the order of 5-10K, not 30-50K. Normally I would agree with you on the order mattering, but in this specific case, not if its just the holiday effect (including the later addition of more Thursday shows) that just delayed the sales. Its a false decline followed by a false incline, and should not just take the latter at face value and use it as the jumping off point

I would expect the catch-up effect to be greatest on Tuesday and decrease over the following days, so Wed/Tue should actually be deflated for Thor. Granted, the Alpha update includes a few hours of July 4 for Tuesday sales, but Philly had a solid bump and Sacto actually had an amazing day, and those are both more or less EOD to EOD. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

I actually agree that Thor will have a better final day that Strange .... just not in the way you think, and that's what those projected Alpha sales were based on.

Am sorry didn't get what you mean.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/6/2022 at 8:30 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-8	Jax	6	18	3	65	1,884	3.45%
		Phx	5	15	5	24	1,833	1.31%
		Ral	7	22	11	130	2,101	6.19%
ATP: 12.28	Total		18	55	19	219	5,818	3.76%
Crawdads (EA)	T-7	Jax	1	1	5	22	86	25.58%
	Total		1	1	5	22	86	25.58%
Nope	T-15	Jax	7	50	5	84	8,422	1.00%
		Phx	6	20	1	119	4,344	2.74%
		Ral	8	25	5	100	3,411	2.93%
	Total		21	95	11	303	16,177	1.87%
Paws of Fury	T-8	Jax	6	24	0	7	2,292	0.31%
		Phx	5	16	1	11	1,628	0.68%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
ATP: 11.18	Total		18	60	1	34	5,904	0.58%
Thor 4	T-1	Jax	7	151	379	3,413	20,225	16.88%
		Phx	7	139	590	3,947	19,892	19.84%
		Ral	8	113	475	3,712	13,018	28.51%
ATP: 14.24	Total		22	403	1,444	11,072	53,135	20.84%

 

Crawdads T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .69x (2.2m)

 - NTTD - .37x (1.93m)

 - Dune - .295x (1.5m)

 

Paws of Fury T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - .618x (711k)

 - Lightyear - .109x (534k)

 

Nope T-15 comps

 - NTTD - .856x (4.45m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.28x (5.24m)

 - F9 - .56x (3.98m)

 

Thor 4 T-1 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .604x (21.74m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.507x (26.53m)

 - No Way Home - .397x (19.85m)

 - Black Widow - 2.37x (31.27m)

 - JW3 - 1.61x (28.95m)

 

Has anyone else noticed prices dropping for Thor?  I've been seeing drop in MTC1 and 2 of ~$1 per show.  I haven't updated my ATP since I think most of the tickets were purchased at the higher price. I'm not 100% when the price changes went into effect though since I don't usually look at them after I record them at the beginning of tracking.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-7	Jax	6	18	3	68	1,884	3.61%
		Phx	5	15	3	27	1,833	1.47%
		Ral	7	22	7	137	2,101	6.52%
ATP: 12.2	Total		18	55	13	232	5,818	3.99%
Crawdads (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	22	86	25.58%
	Total		1	1	0	22	86	25.58%
Nope	T-14	Jax	7	50	0	84	8,422	1.00%
		Phx	6	20	7	126	4,344	2.90%
		Ral	8	25	13	113	3,411	3.31%
	Total		21	95	20	323	16,177	2.00%
Paws of Fury	T-7	Jax	6	24	2	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	0	11	1,628	0.68%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
ATP: 11.28	Total		18	60	2	36	5,904	0.61%
Thor 4	T-0	Jax	7	151	764	4,177	20,225	20.65%
		Phx	7	141	785	4,732	19,975	23.69%
		Ral	8	113	698	4,410	13,018	33.88%
ATP: 14.06	Total		22	405	2,247	13,319	53,218	25.03%

 

Crawdads T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .665x (2.13m)

 - NTTD - .34x (1.76m)

 - Dune - .282x (1.44m)

 

Paws of Fury T-7 comps

 - Bad Guys - .621x (714k)

 - Lightyear - .094x (462k)

 

Nope T-14 comps

 - NTTD - .839x (4.36m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.31x (5.36m)

 - F9 - .567x (4.02m)

 

Thor 4 T-0 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .642x (23.13m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.47x (25.86m)

 - No Way Home - .429x (21.45m)

 - Black Widow - 2.3x (30.36m)

 - JW3 - 1.61x (29.03m)

 

Not quite the pace I was hoping for over the last two days, but certainly could have been worse.  With one update* to go, I'll put my early prediction at 25m.

 

*I've got a work meeting at 2pm when I would normally run the early shows.  Maybe will be able to multitask.

[stripe]

Many thanks for the incredible data you compile!

 

So 25-28M previews to be expected for Thor, isn't it? 

 

Other useful MCU previews to compare: DSMOM (36M), Thor Ragnarok (14.5M), Civil War (25M), AoU (27.6M), GotG2 (17M), AM&TW (11.5M).

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, stripe said:

Many thanks for the incredible data you compile!

 

So 25-28M previews to be expected for Thor, isn't it? 

 

Other useful MCU previews to compare: DSMOM (36M), Thor Ragnarok (14.5M), Civil War (25M), AoU (27.6M), GotG2 (17M), AM&TW (11.5M).

Really, only MOM and NWH are good MCU comparisons for L&T. Preview expansions have drastically increased since most of the films you listed have come out. It’ll likely do 5.4-5.8x previews. 

[stripe]

23 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Really, only MOM and NWH are good MCU comparisons for L&T. Preview expansions have drastically increased since most of the films you listed have come out. It’ll likely do 5.4-5.8x previews. 

 

I agree that previews these days are quite different. Anyways, both MOM and NWH are not perfect for comparisions either. December or May are different months. Also, market is different for L&T with more wide options. And MOM and NWH were perceived as event films months before their opening. That increased the upfront demand for both.

L&T might have an OW better than 5.8x previews.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4	PLF	57	338	5,093	11,672	43.63%	$15.68	$79,836.01
		Standard	114	645	4,155	15,075	27.56%	$11.65	$48,393.63
	Thor 4 Total		171	983	9,248	26,747	34.58%	$13.87	$128,229.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4	N	128	711	7,106	19,746	35.99%	$14.63	$103,935.85
		Y	43	272	2,142	7,001	30.60%	$11.34	$24,293.79
	Thor 4 Total		171	983	9,248	26,747	34.58%	$13.87	$128,229.64

 

Thor T-1 comps

 - No Way Home - .486x (24.32m)

 - DS2 - missed (~22.65m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.43x (30.87m)

 - JW3 - 1.27x (22.93m)

 

Hate that I missed the DS2 update; I'm plugging my closest guess compared to how others distributed the last two days of sales.   For comparison:

 

T-2 to T-0 increases

NWH - 10.94%

DS2 - 17.02%

Batman + EA - 41.62%

JW3 - 44.88%

TG2 - 41.39%

 

Thor 4 increased 11.89% from T-2 already with a day to go. If that gets to... 20% we're looking at the following comps

 

Hypothetical comps

NWH - 24.97m

Batman + EA - 27.04m

DS2 - 22.51m

JW3 - 19.97m

TG2 - 28.51m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4	PLF	57	650	5,743	11,672	49.20%	$15.56	$89,387.32
		Standard	119	1,434	5,589	15,544	35.96%	$11.60	$64,856.85
	Thor 4 Total		176	2,084	11,332	27,216	41.64%	$13.61	$154,244.17

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4	N	133	1,442	8,548	20,215	42.29%	$14.43	$123,343.92
		Y	43	642	2,784	7,001	39.77%	$11.10	$30,900.25
	Thor 4 Total		176	2,084	11,332	27,216	41.64%	$13.61	$154,244.17

 

Quote

T-2 to T-0 increases

NWH - 10.94%

DS2 - 17.02%

Batman + EA - 41.62%

JW3 - 44.88%

TG2 - 41.39%

 

T-2 to T-0 had a huge increase compared to NWH and DS2... 37.1%!  Much more in line with the other three comps.  I'm not sure what this means, other than it caught up to where expectations were originally with a very different path.  

 

Thor T-0 comps

 - No Way Home - .5705x (28.53m)

 - DS2 - .714x (25.72m)

 - Batman Thu - 1.515x (26.67m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.43x (30.89m)

 - JW3 - 1.27x (22.82m)

 

There's still a large range between the comps, but based on the last few weeks I'm expecting same day sales to do very well.  My Santikos prediction is... 27.5m.  Crossing my fingers that regionals confirm my theory.

 

Other final comps that may or may not be relevant

 - TG2 - 32.57m

 - FB3 - 33.74m

 - Sonic 2 - 27.92m

 - Elvis - 26.14m

 - Morbius - 32.79m

[keysersoze123]

Looking at the big theaters at MTC1(as of last night). 

 

Empire 25 - 2738/10506 63111.32 43 shows

Lincoln Sq - 2957/8571 76567.93 26 shows

34th St - 1557/2948 35204.43 26 shows

Metreon - 1796/5766 40474.64 35 shows

Universal - 3051/5533 64741.75 45 shows

Disney - 4402/6707 69871.78 33 shows

 

I think new york especially is not that great. Disney and Universal are the 2 big ones. Still seats available at Imax/Dolby at many places. 

[crazymoviekid]

I'm saying T:L&T opens under JW:D. As of last night, my Doctor Strange comps are:

 

Thursday: $29.18 mil (x.81 DSMOM Thursday)

Friday: $24.9 mil (x.455 DSMOM Friday)

 

Either Friday sales haven't kicked in yet, or Thor is looking to be very front loaded on Thorsday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/6/2022 at 2:22 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-2 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
531	124,249	19,974	16.08%	$243,683	$12.20

 

+2638. Okayish day. All depend on Thursday now as with all the other recent titles had strong final day.

 

Comps

0.599x of DSitMoM admits - $21.7M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-1 Day

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
533	124,249	25,180	20.27%	$302,160	$12.00

 

+5206. Excellent T-1 day. No awaits the all important day. Expecting 20K+ to be added today for 45K+ final.

 

Comps

0.650x of DSitMoM admits - $23.56M

3.649x of Eternals admits - $34.67M

1.725x of Jurassic World: Dominion admits - $30.61M

[Rebeccas]

Has there been overall reduction in rush factor for Thursdays now that previews start so early? Cause I noticed even with MoM, we legit just walked up to the theater and got 7pm tickets at 6:45pm when before we would’ve been stuck with bad seats. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

20 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Has there been overall reduction in rush factor for Thursdays now that previews start so early?

It’s not a reduction in rush, it’s an expansion in available show times and a larger timeframe in which to spread them out.