The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Duality of BOT, once again on display.

 

(though this time separated by a post, which ruins the gag slightly )

The way I see it post-4th effect should be bigger %-wise on Tuesday and decrease each day beyond that. For Thor in Sacto, the trend from Tue-Wed was still really strong compared to DS2, and same-day walkups mostly went as expected given the Wed number. The 4th definitely impacted things and inflated final-day totals, but even without it, I expected L&T to play a good bit more walkup-heavy than something like DS2. 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Am wondering how much of it is 4th of July and how much of it is just a movie with a high level of interest, but not as much fan/spoiler rush as comps. 

I can assure you, based on the data I’ve been compiling, it’s absolutely a holiday effect: pushing a significant number of sales “off track” and finally catching up in one fell swoop on Thursday. Will go into a bit more detail when I do the follow-up to my (currently aging like spoiled milk) projected final total post from Monday 

[M37]

11 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Anyone thinking $30M previews with the walkup surge? 

Honestly wouldn’t surprise me, but there are enough weaker markets tracked that I’d take the under and - knowing how Disney tends to round their big preview numbers - pencil in a flat $29M reported tomorrow 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

I can assure you, based on the data I’ve been compiling, it’s absolutely a holiday effect: pushing a significant number of sales “off track” and finally catching up in one fell swoop on Thursday. Will go into a bit more detail when I do the follow-up to my (currently aging like spoiled milk) projected final total post from Monday 

I mean, how significant is it really? If you take Alpha, Sunday+Monday probably wasn't going over 50k even in the best case. If you take those 24k "lost" sales from the long weekend and distribute them equally over all three days (which doesn't make sense to me, since they should be more heavily skewed toward Tuesday), that's still around 8k per day, not enough to make much of a dent in the same-day Thursday sales. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Rebeccas]

Would be kind of wild if this actually overperforms as it’s RT and critical reception tanks. Lol

[ThomasNicole]

Very nice walkups, hopefully it will keep this path the whole weekend for +150M OW.

 

As of now, it's sitting at 85% verified audience on RT (+1000 ratings) 

 

Very curious if this could be a case of more hard fans (which i think is the ones who cares about rating it on RT) being a bit mixed but GP liking it. Hoping we don't have another B+ cinemascore here.

[keysersoze123]

29m is phenomenal finish for Thor. It should open > 160m at this point. 

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

I can assure you, based on the data I’ve been compiling, it’s absolutely a holiday effect: pushing a significant number of sales “off track” and finally catching up in one fell swoop on Thursday. Will go into a bit more detail when I do the follow-up to my (currently aging like spoiled milk) projected final total post from Monday 

Naa.

Thor was expected to beat DSitMoM on final days because it was matching the pace of DSitMoM before T-7, and given it is summer now, was easy assumption that it will be beating on final day. It could have been even better if reviews were strong. This is with eh reviews/reception.

 

Holiday inflation/deflation happened on Monday and Tuesday.

Edited July 8, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[M37]

@Menor Reborn @charlie Jatinder - going to refrain from responding further, because I'm teetering on the edge of diving into a conversation for which I haven't quite finished collecting data (or my thoughts)

 

So I'll just leave you with a context-less graph, of ticket sales patterns for Alpha for various tracked releases. One of these is not like the others ...

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

@Menor Reborn @charlie Jatinder - going to refrain from responding further, because I'm teetering on the edge of diving into a conversation for which I haven't quite finished collecting data (or my thoughts)

 

So I'll just leave you with a context-less graph, of ticket sales patterns for Alpha for various tracked releases. One of these is not like the others ...

 

I never really relies on complex stats analytics, so I can't really comment on those. @Legion and Thunder usually provide with some to me and they generally are closer to what I am thinking. I rely on simple projections technique, based on my personal experience of tracking sales for some time now and they generally work out well and Thor was no exception.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 7:45 PM, 43,737 /125517 (545 showings)

 

Going nicely.

At 9:45 PM, 46450 (545 showings)

 

The 20K target for final day is achieved and we heading for 47.5K+

[Legion Again]

On 6/14/2022 at 1:47 AM, Legion and Thunder said:

Alright, pretty solid in Sacto. Very close to geomean of Bat and DS2 D1. Geomean of added would be ~11.6M for a 15.8k finish, bit under 4x. Conservatively say 15k finish, @M37’s 1750 ratio would give just 26.2M. But DS2 stuttered at end, I think more optimistically could do like 18k finish, for 31-32ish.   
 

As long as the less intense fan interest for Th also corresponds to a modestly higher IM (say 6-6.5ish) we should be fine.

 

On 7/1/2022 at 3:43 AM, Legion and Thunder said:

Good Sacto day. Still looks like 27.5-30ish there.

 

I think Batman would be useful for pace still even if I wouldn’t take final:final comp at face value.

To be honest I often just focus on Sacto at this point, especially for marvel where it seems to be a reliable bellwether. Day 1 was looking 16k-18k finish in Sacto. Friwas looking at 16-18k finish Sacto. I know I missed some posts in between where I crunched pace nums and came up with... roughly 16-18k Sacto finish (using bat &DS2 early, or bat and NWH once we entered the crazy pace period of DS2).

 

Some wobbly wobbly ness with July 4 to be sure but very normal run in macro sense.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13383	13695	312	2.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	34.74		71	898		0/91	13252/14150	6.35%		4407	6.99%		2.58m
TSS	98.42		12	317		0/81	13635/13952	2.27%		2352	13.27%		4.04m
LTBC	39.34		59	793		0/153	25000/25793	3.07%		7712	4.05%		4.56m
NTTD	46.29		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		3737	8.35%		2.87m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     60/3963  [1.51% sold]
Matinee:      8/861  [0.93% | 2.56% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13344	13695	351	2.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.22		71	969		0/91	13181/14150	6.85%		4407	7.87%		2.69m
TSS	108.33		7	324		0/81	13628/13952	2.32%		2352	14.92%		4.44m
LTBC	39.98		85	878		0/153	24915/25793	3.40%		7712	4.55%		4.64m
NTTD	48.55		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		3737	9.39%		3.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     70/3963  [1.77% sold]
Matinee:    16/861  [1.86% | 4.56% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13344	13695	351	2.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.22		71	969		0/91	13181/14150	6.85%		4407	7.87%		2.69m
TSS	108.33		7	324		0/81	13628/13952	2.32%		2352	14.92%		4.44m
LTBC	39.98		85	878		0/153	24915/25793	3.40%		7712	4.55%		4.64m
NTTD	48.55		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		3737	9.39%		3.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     70/3963  [1.77% sold]
Matinee:    16/861  [1.86% | 4.56% of all tickets sold]

 

Also, for the first fucking time in... what ***FOUR GOD-DAMN MONTHS!!!!***, it only took me 15 minutes or so to get through my nightly track.  Pretty sure the last time it was this light was in that spell in early March between The Batman ending and when Morbius started where I was only checking out Sonic 2 on the side.

 

...

 

Let me tell you something.  It feels god-damn glorious.

EDIT:::
 

Actually had to go back and check and Sonic 2 started up when Morbius was already running.  So the last time it was this light-ish was at the beginning of the Morbius track, and even there it was taking a tad longer (though only about 5 to 10 min more).  Still, close enuf.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 9:45 PM, 46450 (545 showings)

 

The 20K target for final day is achieved and we heading for 47.5K+

At 11:15 PM, 47,579 

 

👏

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Also, for the first fucking time in... what ***FOUR GOD-DAMN MONTHS!!!!***, it only took me 15 minutes or so to get through my nightly track.  Pretty sure the last time it was this light was in that spell in early March between The Batman ending and when Morbius started where I was only checking out Sonic 2 on the side.

 

...

 

Let me tell you something.  It feels god-damn glorious.

EDIT:::
 

Actually had to go back and check and Sonic 2 started up when Morbius was already running.  So the last time it was this light-ish was at the beginning of the Morbius track, and even there it was taking a tad longer (though only about 5 to 10 min more).  Still, close enuf.

get those Crawdads and Paws of Fury sheets ready 

[cookieleeann]

Well Thor made a big comeback at my theater. I was looking at sales earlier in the week and it was looking so-so but today it just exploded. The walk-ups really rounded everything out. Curious to see how Saturday performs at my theater now. I say Saturday because that is usually the biggest day at my theater.

Things have also been looking up & up at my theater since the release of No Way Home. 

 

 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

get those Crawdads and Paws of Fury sheets ready 

 

 

Spoiler

Let me tell you, Super Pets better not break out. 

 

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

 

  Hide contents

Let me tell you, Super Pets better not break out. 

 

 

Though all kidding aside, is there actually much on the calendar between now and, I suppose Black Adam?  Even that's kinda dicey from what I can tell.  I took a scan of the films coming out in Aug and Sep (as well as the rest of July) and didn't see much at all worth tracking. Not close to my personal lines at any rate.

 

... 

 

Late summer vacation for Porthos???

[charlie Jatinder]

40 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 11:15 PM, 47,579 

 

👏

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins Final

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
546	125,909	47,726	37.91%	$550,788	$11.54

 

+22,546 final day. Excellent closing to the campaign. This includes 290 tix in Thor Marathon show with $11.6K gross. 

 

Comps

0.828x of Doctor Strange admits - $30M

2.901x of Eternals admits - $27.6M

2.253x of Black Widow admits - $30.98M

 

$30M seems good. +/- $500K