The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

They could've easily bowed it at SXSW (the movie earned its MPA rating back in April, so it's been in the can awaiting release for a while).

It wasn't finished then. Still in post and test screening

[el sid]

I can only complain: I got 1 like yesterday for my work 🤨.

Bullet Train, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 219 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 219 (indeed again 219, 6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (6 showtimes, 4 Sell Outs reported, never true)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 76 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 352 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 601 (13 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.508.

It jumped so lala 22% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 262 sold tickets in 6 theaters,

Uncharted had 1.249 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 745 sold tickets.

 

Bullet Train, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 303 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 209 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 15 (9 showtimes, again 3 Sell Outs reported)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 25 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 258 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 419 (16 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.250.

Up 25% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Death on the Nile had 487 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 262 sold tickets in 6 theaters (yes, the same number as on Thursday for Thursday),

Ambulance had 391 sold tickets,

Uncharted had 1.180 sold tickets,

Top Gun had 4.025 sold tickets (and great walk-ups)

and The Lost City had 695 sold tickets.
 

I focus especially upon one comp, The Lost City. Let's say the trend of the last days continues which is very likely: Then TLC would have around 1.100-1.200 sold tickets tomorrow and BT would have around 1.600. But IMO the trailers of TLC were way more entertaining and also more attractive for a female crowd (BT has Brad Pitt but not the rest). So due to less walk-ups I could see BT stay a little bit under 30M. But not much.

 

Easter Sunday had today 297 sold tickets for Friday.

Up mediocre 22% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Massive Talent had on Wednesday for Friday 440 sold tickets (but as I said I guess Easter Sunday is less of a niche film)

Bad Boys for Life had 2.154 sold tickets,

Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard had 203 sold tickets (a film that must have had good walk-ups)

and Bob's Burgers had 487 sold tickets.

 

So almost all of my comps point to a weekend number slightly under 10M. But if it has also a bit of the e.g. Overcomer crowd (which had miserable presales but still made 8.1M on its first weekend) then it could reach 10M+.

Edited August 4, 2022 by el sid

[Borf the Borf]

39 minutes ago, el sid said:

I can only complain: I got 1 like yesterday for my work 🤨.
rowd (which had miserable presales but still made 8.1M on its first weekend) then it could reach 10M+.

I would suggest so strongly you use a table in data, I dont read your post because it hurts my eyesi.  i dont mean that in a mean way I meant it in a constructive way I even demonstrated once last week.  

If you automate report just  add commas in between fields and excel can separate them easily.,  
 

On 7/27/2022 at 8:51 AM, Borf the Borf said:

I mean this in hte most constructive way possible but tables would make your post so much easier to read.  

 

	tix	showtimes
NY	69	4
Miami	43	6
Grand Rapids	11	3
Austin	4	5
Tempe/Phoenix	19	4
San Francisco	33	6
LA	92	7

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

I would suggest so strongly you use a table in data, I dont read your post because it hurts my eyesi.  i dont mean that in a mean way I meant it in a constructive way I even demonstrated once last week.  

If you automate report just  add commas in between fields and excel can separate them easily.,  
 

 

 

I would suggest so strongly that you run your posts through a spell checker for errors. It hurts my eyes and I don't mean it in a mean way but to be constructive. 

 

As for el sid, thank you for your hard work. I appreciate it. 

[Krissykins]

Fall is only going in 1,400 locations next week. 
 

 

[Borf the Borf]

11 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I would suggest so strongly that you run your posts through a spell checker for errors. It hurts my eyes and I don't mean it in a mean way but to be constructive. 

 

As for el sid, thank you for your hard work. I appreciate it. 

 

OK  I was being constructive.  I have a learning disability specific to written language.  I took time to make a graph last week and was trying to help him.  You are just being an ass.

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, Borf the Borf said:

 

OK  I was being constructive.  I have a learning disability specific to written language.  I took time to make a graph last week and was trying to help him.  You are just being an ass.

 

I would not criticize people who are tracking movies each week. El cid has been doing it a long time. Sure they present it in a different format but they consistently do it and I appreciate the data. I realize you said it last week but if they have not changed there formatting why double down on it?

 

With Empire City being banned and Charlie not posting many numbers these days we need all the data we can get.

[Old Spice]

Bullet Train report for Salt Lake City, 2:00 PM MST

 

Dog days of summer at the Cinemark Sugarhouse with only 28 tix sold so far. The suburbs aren't doing much better with the Cinemark Draper PLF at 48 and the Cinemark Farmington PLF at 36.

 

Total tix sold: 112

(Nope had sold 301 tix at the same time; Super Pets, 121.)

 

Sugarhouse comps:

Uncharted ($1.29M)

Lost City (1.38)

Nope (1.58)

Morbius (2.31)

Black Phone (2.99)

 

Nope comp including suburbs (2.38)

 

Will go with previews of $3.2M including EA and an OW of $25.6

Edited August 4, 2022 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Borf the Borf]

9 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I would not criticize people who are tracking movies each week. El cid has been doing it a long time. Sure they present it in a different format but they consistently do it and I appreciate the data. I realize you said it last week but if they have not changed there formatting why double down on it?

 

With Empire City being banned and Charlie not posting many numbers these days we need all the data we can get.

 

He cited only getting one like. This isnt just my opinion I have heard this form others.   Its not mean to give feedback, and in regard to data its presentation is important.  His reports look automated so the fix it somewhat easy. I wrote a script to it myself last week but didnt wanna just post his work reformatted and take credit. 

ex:

Edited August 4, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[abracadabra1998]

Can I ask a dumb question as a newbie here. How do y'all get your numbers? Do you manually go through shows and count the seats or get that info from movie theaters? I've been a lurker for a long time and would love to learn more about it, and who knows maybe help out with my own numbers from my area (Twin Cities)

[Old Spice]

11 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Can I ask a dumb question as a newbie here. How do y'all get your numbers? Do you manually go through shows and count the seats or get that info from movie theaters? I've been a lurker for a long time and would love to learn more about it, and who knows maybe help out with my own numbers from my area (Twin Cities)

I'm an old fart/semi-Luddite, so I literally go to the seating charts and count the number of tix sold. 

 

Welcome, and it would be great if you could provide some data from the upper Midwest!

Edited August 4, 2022 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Can I ask a dumb question as a newbie here. How do y'all get your numbers? Do you manually go through shows and count the seats or get that info from movie theaters? I've been a lurker for a long time and would love to learn more about it, and who knows maybe help out with my own numbers from my area (Twin Cities)

I manually go to sites and count the "Seats sold/Seats available" numbers for each show. I do 20 theatres. I started out just doing a couple of theatres (I do Ontario Canada films which is even more fun lol). Ive always felt every little bit counts, even if its just  your local theatre or a couple of theatres in your city. There are people on the forum who pretty much gather all the numbers together and work their math magic, so like I said, every little bit counts

[XXR & Friends]

12 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Can I ask a dumb question as a newbie here. How do y'all get your numbers? Do you manually go through shows and count the seats or get that info from movie theaters? I've been a lurker for a long time and would love to learn more about it, and who knows maybe help out with my own numbers from my area (Twin Cities)

Some of us do it manually, and others have scripts that comb data on the backend of websites.

[motionpic05]

The next couple months are going to be bare with almost certainly no movie opening over $30 million. 

 

Halloween Ends is going to be the first "major" release in more than two months, when it releases on October 14th and people will be ready for a high profile flick. Universal will no doubt ride on "Their Saga Ends".. and it will benefit from limited competition. 

 

I think a $70 million OW is certainly possible. 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, David Zaslav XXR said:

Some of us do it manually, and others have scripts that comb data on the backend of websites.

 

And some of us meet the problem half way by running keyword searches on HTML source data. 

 

(if I still manually counted Sacto, I woulda quit a looooong time ago)

 

(@abracadabra1998)

Edited August 4, 2022 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

Gotcha, thanks for the replies all. I'll look into what I can get going here in my area!

[Borf the Borf]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

And some of us meet the problem half way by running keyword searches on HTML source data. 

 

(if I still manually counted Sacto, I woulda quit a locoing time ago)

 

(@abracadabra1998)

Yea if anyone is manually counting you can usually hit f12, go to elements tab , ctrl F , and enter a term that will show you howmany sears are taken.  I guess it varies but "unavailable"  usually works.  If know total seats for the handful of layouts your theater(s) have it may save you a bit of time

[Inceptionzq]

Bullet Train Denver: 1258 sold

0.494x Nope T-0 (3.16M)

0.532x NTTD T-0 (2.78M)

 

Bullet Train Megaplex: 641 sold

0.525x Nope T-0 (3.36M)

 

Bullet Train Drafthouse: 4844 sold ATP: $15.12

0.410x Nope T-0 (2.62M)

 

I was planning on actually tracking this week, but didn't so I just settled for this. Don't really have good comps for this. Note that this doesn't include early access

[Tinalera]

Bullet Train

SW/Toronto Ontario (Friday only final count)

 

 

Train	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Fri	20	132	656	33101	33757	0.0194

 

 

Comps (Friday only)

 

x .1995 Minions 2 (644 Thousand CAN only, 9.5 CAN/US)

x .4089 Lightyear (300 Thousand CAN only, 8.1 CAN/US)

x .0402 Thor 4 (197 Thousand CAN only,  2.77 CAN/US)

 

This will be my last count for bullet train as Im out for the weekend. Im interested to see what the final numbers are for this film.

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-0	Jax	7	57	103	312	10,374	3.01%
		Phx	6	35	85	355	7,521	4.72%
		Ral	8	36	115	377	4,492	8.39%
	Total		21	128	303	1,044	22,387	4.66%
Dragon Ball	T-14	Jax	6	26	8	161	5,795	2.78%
		Phx	6	22	16	268	4,486	5.97%
		Ral	7	21	4	185	2,812	6.58%
	Total		19	69	28	614	13,093	4.69%
Easter Sunday	T-0	Jax	6	21	7	77	2,895	2.66%
		Phx	6	22	3	25	2,714	0.92%
		Ral	8	22	9	23	2,342	0.98%
	Total		20	65	19	125	7,951	1.57%

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Dune - .472x (2.41m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .464x (2.41m)

 - F9 - .342x (2.42m)

 - Lost City - 1.522x (3.8m)

 - Morbius - .466x (2.66m)

 - Free Guy - 1.82x (4.01m)

 - Nope - .526x (3.37m)

 - Crawdads (Thu) - 1.08x (2.16m)

 

Growth Rate Check

1-day

Bullet Train +29.02%

Dune +20.3%

F9 +28.66%

Lost City +27.74%

Morbius +22.76%

Free Guy +29.49%

Nope +31.15%

Crawdads +26.71%

 

3-day pace

Bullet Train +58.43%

F9 +52.63%

Lost City +60.2%

Morbius +49.98%

Free Guy +46.77%

Nope +58.82%

Crawdads +54.87%

 

 

Comp Tracking

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4	T-5	T-6	T-7
Bullet Train
F9	0.000	0.342	0.340	0.303	0.300	0.297	0.294	0.306	0.281
Morbius	0.000	0.466	0.428	0.370	0.387	0.375	0.374	0.381	0.346
Nope	0.000	0.526	0.542	0.509	0.531	0.518	0.533	0.550	0.515
Crawdads	0.000	1.081	1.047	0.924	0.995	1.076	1.060	1.199	1.168

 

Doesn't look like we'll get to 3m for Thursday.  I'll go with 2.5m for now (excluding EA).

 

Easter Sunday T-0 comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - .475x (333k)

 - Vengeance - 1.374x

 - Elvis - .108x (347k)

 

Really tough to predict this one.  Seems like there will be a ton of regional variance.  Jacksonville (specifically one theater with 51 tickets sold) is really inflating this total.  Without knowing how it's doing in other places, I'll go with 350k for previews.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	1-Hr	Jax	7	57	166	478	10,374	4.61%
		Phx	7	38	59	414	7,686	5.39%
		Ral	8	36	218	595	4,492	13.25%
	Total		22	131	443	1,487	22,552	6.59%
Dragon Ball	T-14	Jax	6	26	8	161	5,795	2.78%
		Phx	6	22	16	268	4,486	5.97%
		Ral	7	21	4	185	2,812	6.58%
	Total		19	69	28	614	13,093	4.69%
Easter Sunday	1-Hr	Jax	6	21	14	91	2,895	3.14%
		Phx	6	22	10	35	2,714	1.29%
		Ral	8	22	13	36	2,342	1.54%
	Total		20	65	37	162	7,951	2.04%

 

7 hours ago, M37 said:

Curious if the T-1hr update continues to match pace, coming in at 1500+

 - Very close to 1,500.  Would have gotten there but one theater has removed all shows from tonight from Fandango and corporate site.  Not sure if they had to close or if it's just a glitch so I kept the sales total from this morning just in case.

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-1 hr comps

 - Dune - .541x (2.76m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .544x (2.83m)

 - F9 - .388x (2.75m)

 - Lost City - 1.483x (3.7m)

 - Morbius - .504x (2.87m)

 - Free Guy - 1.711x (3.76m)

 - Nope - .512x (3.28m)

 - Crawdads (Thu) - 1.15x (2.3m)

All R movies - 2.94m

All 3pm previews - 2.88m

All action movies - 2.73m

All movies - 2.97m

 

Growth Rate Check

1-day

Bullet Train +29.79%

Dune +19.59%

F9 +20.31%

Lost City +31.61%

Morbius +24.03%

Free Guy +34.06%

Nope +31.7%

Crawdads +25.35%

 

3-day pace

Bullet Train +64.69%

F9 +54.9%

Lost City +65.2%

Morbius +51.93%

Free Guy +59.61%

Nope +64.48%

Crawdads +56.11%

 

Comp Tracking

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4	T-5	T-6	T-7
Bullet Train
F9	0.388	0.342	0.340	0.303	0.300	0.297	0.294	0.306	0.281
Lost City	1.483	1.522	1.534	1.504	1.590	1.538	1.573	1.571	1.355
Nope	0.512	0.526	0.542	0.509	0.531	0.518	0.533	0.550	0.515
Crawdads	1.149	1.081	1.047	0.924	0.995	1.076	1.060	1.199	1.168

 

Well, maybe we will get to 3m, or at least closer than it looked like this morning.  I'm still a little worried with Santikos being so low, but I'll up my final prediction to 2.9m for true previews. 

 

Easter Sunday T-1 hr comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - .378x (264k)

 - Vengeance - 1.218x

 - Elvis - .102x (325k)

 - Bob's Burgers - .207x (311k)

 - Lost City - .162x (404k)

All PG-13 movies - 320k

All comedies - 282k

All movies - 324k

 

I'll go with 320k for this one.