The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Borf the Borf]

1 hour ago, Ronin46 said:

BOReport

 

 

Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia)	$31.5 M	$31.5 M	NEW	1
2	DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.)	$10.8 M	$44.5 M	-53%	2
3	Nope (Universal)	$9.2 M	$98.9 M	-51%	3
4	Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney)	$8.1 M	$316.5 M	-39%	5
5	Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal)	$7.9 M	$335.4 M	-28%	6
6	Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)	$6.7 M	$662.1 M	-20%	11
7	Easter Sunday (Universal / DreamWorks)	$6.2 M	$6.2 M	NEW	1
8	Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony / Columbia)	$5.4 M	$64.4 M	-29%	4
9	Elvis (Warner Bros.)	$4.5 M	$137.0 M	-22%	7

 

 

Should reaLly post a link to there work if gonna screen shot it.   

Edited August 5, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Fall is only going in 1,400 locations next week. 
 

 

This is coming for a sub-$3M opening.

[keysersoze123]

walkups at MTC1 are quite good for BT. I am thinking 3.7/3.8m previews and another million early shows. At worst it should do 4.5m between the 2. hopefully OW is at least mid 30s. I think walkups will be good over the weekend as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 5:15PM in Harkins for Bullet Train, 4023/48954 (167 showings) $44,424

 

Final can be 5.5K. Good walk-ups. Probably $3-3.3M THU. Incl EA $4.1-4.5M.

At 9:45 PM in Harkins for Bullet Train, 6437/49074 (168 showings) $72,649

 

Very good walk-ups. The best THU walkups to WED increase ratio, even beating The Black Phone. Final probably 6.6-6.7K for $75K. $3.6-3.9M THU previews. Incl EA $4.75-5M.

[ringedmortality]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 9:45 PM in Harkins for Bullet Train, 6437/49074 (168 showings) $72,649

 

Very good walk-ups. The best THU walkups to WED increase ratio, even beating The Black Phone. Final probably 6.6-6.7K for $75K. $3.6-3.9M THU previews. Incl EA $4.75-5M.

shouldnt we have a weekend thread by now 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 9:45 PM in Harkins for Bullet Train, 6437/49074 (168 showings) $72,649

 

Very good walk-ups. The best THU walkups to WED increase ratio, even beating The Black Phone. Final probably 6.6-6.7K for $75K. $3.6-3.9M THU previews. Incl EA $4.75-5M.

The Bullet Train Harkins Final

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	12	3,840	883	22.99%	$11,390	$12.90
Thursday	168	49,074	6,629	13.51%	$75,202	$11.34
Total	180	52,914	7,512	14.20%	$86,592	$11.53

 

$75K for THU alone would generally mean $3.7-4.2M while over $86.6K will be around $4.3-4.8M, but EA under-indexed in Harkins a bit so probably use EA actuals with THU numbers.

 

That gives $4.8-5.4M approx, I will go with clean $5M approx.

 

Comps

0.69x of Nope Gross - $4.4M (THU alone $3.85M)

2.19x of Crawdads - $5.03M (THU alone $4.25M)

1.36x of Uncharted Gross - $5.03M (THU alone $4.14M)

1.82x of The Lost City Gross (THU alone) - $3.65M

 

[Krissykins]

On 8/3/2022 at 9:18 PM, CJohn said:

No way Bullet Train does 35M with those reviews. More like 25M.

It’s interesting, despite the score continuing to fall, prospects have been increasing all week. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Easter Sunday Harkins Final

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
90	15,492	979	6.32%	$10,657	$10.89

 

Normally this would mean ~$550-600K, here West is over-indexing for the film. Thinking $475-525K previews for it.

 

FRI sales looked good few days back but awful pace in last 2-3 days. Probably $1.1-1.2M FRI. Weekend of $3.75-4.5M

Edited August 5, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Goldenhour36]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Easter Sunday Harkins Final

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
90	15,492	979	6.32%	$10,657	$10.89

 

Normally this would mean ~$550-600K, here West is over-indexing for the film. Thinking $475-525K previews for it.

 

FRI sales looked good few days back but awful pace in last 2-3 days. Probably $1.1-1.2M FRI. Weekend of $3.75-4.5M

 

If this movie opening that low then I wonder how much Universal next comedy "Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul" will make as that is day and date with Peacock.

[Issac Newton]

Via Box Office Pro

[M37]

On 8/3/2022 at 9:34 AM, M37 said:

The $ value of comps for both tracked samples are kinda over the place, since BT doesn't fit neatly into a genre box, but the pace really kicked up on Tuesday, and that's a solid EA number. Now thinking ~$5M total previews, a mid-$30M weekend (an IM around Nope's 7x), if that growth rate pace holds up through Thursday

That high sale pace on Tuesday was no fluke, really signaled a GA friendly final few days of sales and good walk-up Thursday, similar to Lost City and Uncharted. Sticking with that range, officially $4.9M (MOE $0.25) for all previews, which even at the low end would be enough to clear $30M for the weekend, more like mid-$30s.

 

On 8/3/2022 at 10:39 AM, M37 said:

Looking at at the other high volume EA comps and the EA/Thur ratio 

 

LC = 3.33

Sonic = 2.94

TGM = 3.22

 

None are great comparisons for a variety of factors, but a 3x seems like a reasonable estimate, $3.6 for Thur/$4.8M total, and with pace of sales suggesting BT is going to be at least somewhat GA/walkup friendly, not going to be at all surprised if total lands above $5M

Will wait for official number, but looks like the ~3x Thur/EA ratio is going to hold up, for titles with 700+ EA shows. Something to file away for future reference, since these shows don't look to be going away

 

I honestly don't care enough about Easter Sunday to offer a specific projection ... as neither do audiences apparently

Edited August 5, 2022 by M37

[Legion Again]

If we figure 5M previews, perhaps:

5

9.5

10

7.5

 

IM of 6.5-7ish? Unsure where fri ps are ending but PSm should be good, following tue and Th

[el sid]

Everything is fine. No problem. I'll try to use a chart in the future.
And thank y'all .

 

Bullet Train, counted today at 6am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 386 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 283 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 38 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 27 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 54 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 340 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 556 (16 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.684.

Up 35% since yesterday (my guess yesterday were 1.600 sold tickets).
Comp: My extrapolation (a bit weak I know) for The Lost City would have been 1.100-1.200 sold tickets on Friday for Friday (another 50%+ jump in one day).

So presales-wise BT would in comparison with TLC do more than 40M OW. And because we heard that the walk-ups of BT are pretty good I lift my weekend „prediction“ to 35M.
 

The Fall had only showtimes in 2 of my 7 theaters, those in California. It has at the moment 11 sold tickets for Thursday and the same number for Friday.

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

If we figure 5M previews, perhaps:

5

9.5

10

7.5

 

IM of 6.5-7ish? Unsure where fri ps are ending but PSm should be good, following tue and Th

I think it goes a bit higher, 7-7.5x

Suspect we’re starting to see the deflation of weekday/higher weekend numbers, and despite the critic review score falling, the audience score (84%) and ticket sales pattern suggests it’s GA friendly and will play well with more casual/weekend audience
 

Something more like 5/10.5/11.5/8.5 = $35.5 is what I would pencil in for now 

[charlie Jatinder]

I think around 28-32M for now.

5
8-9
8.5-10
6.25-8

27.75-32

[Issac Newton]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Easter Sunday Harkins Final

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
90	15,492	979	6.32%	$10,657	$10.89

 

Normally this would mean ~$550-600K, here West is over-indexing for the film. Thinking $475-525K previews for it.

 

FRI sales looked good few days back but awful pace in last 2-3 days. Probably $1.1-1.2M FRI. Weekend of $3.75-4.5M

Average of $475K-$525K → $500K Previews 

EASTER SUNDAY
$500K Thursday Domestic Previews#EasterSunday #EasterSundayMovie #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) August 5, 2022

[abracadabra1998]

After the (many) really really really helpful comments, I looked into what I could set up for the Twin Cities area last night. There aren't many exciting new releases coming up, but I thought starting with something more casual would be helpful for me in terms of getting used to the process. So I give you:

 

Dragon Ball (T-14):

 

 

Obviously don't have any comps, since I just started, but I will check again in probably a week and see the % change, which can be a bit helpful at least. The next one will probably be Beast (thought about doing Fall, but that's looking just horrible and many theaters aren't showing it). Let me know if you have any feedback or comments on the layout or info I'm missing!

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/4/2022 at 7:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Bullet Train	PLF	29	107	201	6,624	3.03%	$14.73	$2,960.75
		Standard	41	113	260	4,946	5.26%	$11.52	$2,994.09
	Total		70	220	461	11,570	3.98%	$12.92	$5,954.84
	Easter Sunday	Standard	31	11	66	2,978	2.22%	$13.07	$862.74
	Total		31	11	66	2,978	2.22%	$13.07	$862.74
T-1	Bullet Train (Fri)	PLF	41	47	191	10,340	1.85%	$14.56	$2,780.78
		Standard	63	70	171	7,690	2.22%	$11.47	$1,960.83
	Total		104	117	362	18,030	2.01%	$13.10	$4,741.61
T-1	Easter Sunday (Fri)	Standard	50	36	107	4,486	2.39%	$12.09	$1,293.80
	Total		50	36	107	4,486	2.39%	$12.09	$1,293.80

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Bullet Train	N	50	173	370	8,348	4.43%	$13.69	$5,065.20
		Y	20	47	91	3,222	2.82%	$9.78	$889.64
	Total		70	220	461	11,570	3.98%	$12.92	$5,954.84
T-1	Bullet Train (Fri)	N	53	89	273	9,147	2.98%	$13.97	$3,813.87
		Y	51	28	89	8,883	1.00%	$10.42	$927.74
	Total		104	117	362	18,030	2.01%	$13.10	$4,741.61
T-1	Easter Sunday (Fri)	N	27	21	86	2,436	3.53%	$12.73	$1,095.20
		Y	23	15	21	2,050	1.02%	$9.46	$198.60
	Total		50	36	107	4,486	2.39%	$12.09	$1,293.80

 

Thursday

 

Bullet Train T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - .897x (1.79m)

 - Morbius - .234x (1.33m)

 - Nope - .363x (2.32m)

 - Northman - 1.996x (2.69m)

 

Definitely a cautionary tale here.  I'll go with 2.5m for Thursday but wouldn't be surprised if it finished a little under that.

 

Easter Sunday T-0 comps

 - Massive Talent - .795x (664k)

 - Crawdads - .128x (257k)

 - Bob's Burgers - .191x (287k)

 - Super Pets - .195x (439k)

 - Elvis - .048x (152k)

 

Gonna go with 250k for this one

 

Friday

 

Bullet Train (Fri) T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .756x (3.98m)

 - Morbius - .24x (2.79m)

 - Nope - .409x (5.37m)

 

Easter Sunday (Fri) T-1 comp

 - Crawdads - .223x (1.177m)

 - Super Pets - .192x (1.36m)

 

Projection

 

Using Thu final day sales to project Friday, I'm expecting Bullet Train to finish around 925 and Easter Sunday to finish around 215.   Here are the comps using those hypotheticals

 

Bullet Train Friday

 - Crawdads - 6.12m

 - Nope - 6.56m

 

Prediction: 6.4m true Friday

 

Easter Sunday Friday

 - Crawdads - 1.42m

 - Elvis - 815k

 - Super Pets - 1.04m

 

Prediction: 1.3m true Friday

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Bullet Train (Fri)	PLF	41	296	487	10,340	4.71%	$14.30	$6,963.79
		Standard	63	248	419	7,690	5.45%	$11.53	$4,832.19
	Total		104	544	906	18,030	5.02%	$13.02	$11,795.98

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Bullet Train (Fri)	N	53	369	642	9,147	7.02%	$14.04	$9,015.48
		Y	51	175	264	8,883	2.97%	$10.53	$2,780.50
	Total		104	544	906	18,030	5.02%	$13.02	$11,795.98
T-0	Easter Sunday (Fri)	N	27	115	201	2,433	8.26%	$12.32	$2,476.37
		Y	23	27	48	2,048	2.34%	$9.09	$436.47
	Total		50	142	249	4,481	5.56%	$11.70	$2,912.84

 

So it looks like excellent walkups yesterday + poor presales in Santikos.  That's okay though, I can adjust weekend projections from there.  On a positive note, Bullet Train almost reached projected sales for today and Easter Sunday surpassed (very low) expectations.

 

Unadjusted

Bullet Train (Fri) T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - 1.138x (5.99m)

 - Morbius - .367x (4.26m)

 - Nope - .489x (6.42m)

 

Easter Sunday (Fri) T-0 comp

 - Crawdads - .313x (1.647m)

 - Super Pets - .169x (1.2m)

 

Adjusted

Bullet Train (Fri) T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - 11.19m

 - Morbius - 10.7m

 - Nope - 9.27m

 

Well, I like these numbers a lot more!   Expecting good walkups again today I'll put my projection at 10.3m for true Friday

 

Easter Sunday (Fri) T-0 comp

 - Crawdads - 3.21m

 - Super Pets - 2.16m

 

I don't have any good comps for ES, but I'll go with 2.5m for Friday

 

Hoping to look at Saturday sales and get showtimes report up soon. Been in meetings all morning and managed to pull these while on break.  

Edited August 5, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Fixed ES Adjusted comps

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/4/2022 at 6:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dragon Ball	T-14	Jax	6	26	8	161	5,795	2.78%
		Phx	6	22	16	268	4,486	5.97%
		Ral	7	21	4	185	2,812	6.58%
	Total		19	69	28	614	13,093	4.69%

 

Dragon Ball T-14 comp

 - JJK:0 - 1.059x (3.05m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dragon Ball	T-13	Jax	6	26	0	161	5,795	2.78%
		Phx	6	22	11	279	4,486	6.22%
		Ral	7	21	5	190	2,812	6.76%
	Total		19	69	16	630	13,093	4.81%

 

Dragon Ball T-13 comp

 - JJK:0 - missed

[Borf the Borf]

nothing

Edited August 5, 2022 by Borf the Borf
im dumb