The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/26/2022 at 10:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Invitation	2,655	43,127		40,148		2,979	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	2,752	40,241	-23.73%	37,099	339.98	3,142	775	0
Beast	3,131	39,313	-21.75%	38,731	201.00	582	0	0
Years of Longing	2,230	32,529		31,521		1,008	0	0
Bullet Train	2,821	30,576	-16.12%	30,466	220.21	110	0	0
Super-Pets	2,731	27,836	-16.30%	27,758	170.90	78	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,465	26,421	-5.83%	25,355	210.80	1,066	402	0
Thor 4	2,047	21,885	-17.16%	21,812	153.88	73	0	30
Minions 2	2,130	20,824	-18.72%	20,641	145.35	183	0	155
Crawdads	1,870	19,050	-15.20%	19,015	142.57	35	0	0
Nope	1,621	15,462	-30.09%	15,445	161.98	17	0	0
Breaking	891	12,196		12,171		25	0	0
Bodies Bodies	1,692	11,614	-60.74%	11,582	89.42	32	0	0
Elvis	1,500	10,684	+4.21%	9,109	193.36	1,575	301	0
Jurassic World 3	1,290	7,300	+180.99%	7,100	205.38	200	0	189
Orphan: First Kill	518	6,543		6,532		11	0	0
Fall	731	4,986	-67.94%	4,986	85.13	0	0	0
Easter Sunday	304	2,581	-67.89%	2,581	115.98	0	0	0
Rogue One	243	2,431		0		2,431	2,431	0
The Black Phone	316	2,294	-43.88%	2,294	136.14	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/26/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

The Invitation - 43,127 (2,655 TC)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - Cry Macho - 42,749 (3,268)

Three Thousand Years of Longing - 32,529 (2,230 TC)

 - Memory - 31,063 (2,233)

 - Many Saints - 32,703 (2,807)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731)

 - Protege - 33,889 (2,304)

Breaking - 12,196 (891 TC)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 - Mrs. Harris - 13,334 (935)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 

T-1 Week*

Honk for Jesus - 11,931 (1,249 TC)

No Way Home - 15,478 (1,821 TC)

Jaws - 6,606 (847 TC)

Gigi & Nate - 6,521 (644 TC)

 

*As mentioned previously, Saturday 9/3 shows are not populated for the most part.  

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
No Way Home	3,195	42,326		36,435		5,891	0	0
The Invitation	2,663	32,845	-10.99%	32,264	157.80	581	0	0
Beast	2,743	30,697	-21.92%	30,542	124.11	155	0	0
Bullet Train	2,597	28,955	-5.30%	28,673	183.41	282	78	0
Top Gun 2	2,637	28,486	7.82%	26,956	178.74	1,530	824	0
Honk For Jesus	1,830	26,909		26,848		61	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	2,351	25,881	-35.68%	25,320	115.88	561	132	0
Super-Pets	2,677	25,787	-7.36%	25,726	148.65	61	0	0
Three Thousand Years	2,214	21,755	-22.34%	21,735	89.76	20	0	0
Minions 2	2,073	18,507	-11.13%	18,382	130.16	125	2	90
Crawdads	1,842	17,280	-9.29%	17,244	120.76	36	0	0
Thor4	1,821	17,002	-22.31%	16,934	120.85	68	0	21
Gigi & Nate	1,160	16,776		16,753		23	0	0
Jaws	1,165	14,653		0		14,653	3,642	10,217
Nope	1,322	9,954	-35.62%	9,935	142.03	19	0	0
Breaking	882	7,516	-31.64%	7,505	80.84	11	0	0
Elvis	1,112	7,072	-33.81%	7,011	138.30	61	36	0
Orphan: First Kill	509	5,253	-19.72%	5,250	140.35	3	0	0
Bodies Bodies Bodies	599	3,591	-69.08%	3,576	92.06	15	0	0
Jurassic World 3	552	2,952	-59.56%	2,944	100.05	8	0	2

 

US Showtime Sample for 9/2/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

No Way Home - 42,326 (3,195 TC)

Honk for Jesus - 26,909 (1,830 TC)

 - Mack & Rita - 24,728 (1,686)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - Redeeming Love - 25,146 (1,836)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

Gigi & Nate - 16,776 (1,160 TC)

 - Mr. Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263)

Jaws - 14,653 (1,165 TC) (All PLF)

 

T-1 Week

Barbarian (EA) - 113 (113 TC)

Barbarian - 21,805 (1,532 TC)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787)

 - The Invitation - 21,624 (1,619)

 - The Northman - 22,383 (1,935)

Medieval - 9,948 (812 TC)

 - The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

Brahmastra Part 1 - 7,708 (516 TC)

 - Laal Singh Chaddha - 4,309 (338)

 - RRR - 17,065 (1,071)

Lifemark - 6,046 (1,457 TC)

 - Gigi & Nate - 6,521 (644)

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

9/9/2022	Barbarian	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	-12%	$17,000,000 – $32,000,000	-12%	20th Century Studios
9/9/2022	Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva					Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022	God’s Country					IFC Films
9/16/2022	Running the Bases					UP2U Films
9/16/2022	See How They Run					Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022	The Silent Twins					Focus Features
9/16/2022	The Woman King	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$42,000,000 – $67,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling	$11,500,000 – $16,500,000	+4%	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000	+4%	Warner Bros. Pictures
9/30/2022	Bros	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$35,000,000 – $60,000,000		Universal Pictures
9/30/2022	Smile	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000		$35,000,000 – $65,000,000		Paramount Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Bros and Smile - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

So it doesn't get lost on the previous page.

[Eric Lasagna]

On 8/31/2022 at 11:01 AM, Eric the Shark said:

Quorum Updates

Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul T-2: 27.32% Awareness, 4.7 Interest

The Woman King: T-16: 28.62% Awareness, 5.07 Interest

Don't Worry Darling T-23: 24.36% Awareness, 5.02 Interest

Devotion T-84: 18.56% Awareness, 5.13 Interest

Babylon T-128: 14.06% Awareness, 5.04 Interest

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-198: 38.35% Awareness, 5.46 Interest

Mario T-219: 29.71% Awareness, 5.75 Interest

The Little Mermaid T-268: 48.74% Awareness, 5.8 Interest

 

Lyle Lyle Crocodile T-37: 18.1% Awareness, 4.58 Interest

Comps: Spirit Untamed w/ 29.63% Awareness & 4.98 Interest, Peter Rabbit 2 w/ 31.34% & 4.89, Ron's Gone Wrong w/ 17.85% & 4.76, The Bad Guys 27.52% & 5.27, Bob's Burgers 35.87% Awareness & 4.84

 

T-30 General Awareness: 30% chance of double digit opening, 12.5% of 20M+

General Interest: 25% chance of double digits, 5% chance of 20M+

Animation/Family Awareness: Less than 30%, a 33% chance of double digit opening

Animation/Family Interest: Less than 5.0, 50% chance of double digit opening

Quorum Updates

Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul Final: 29.67% Awareness, 4.74 Interest

Smile T-29: 28.29% Awareness, 5.43 Interest

The Menu T-78: 15.13% Awareness, 5.04 Interest

Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies T-106: 9.82% Awareness, 4.29 Interest

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish T-111: 48.96% Awareness, 5.63 Interest

The Little Mermaid T-274: 48.05% Awareness, 6.2 Interest

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-281: 32.38% Awareness, 5.41 Interest

 

Barbarian T-8: 19.82% Awareness, 5.14 Interest

Comps (all Final): Escape Room 2 w/ 33.64% Awareness & 5.16 Interest, The Night House w/ 18.09% & 5.17, Antlers w/ 21.71% & 4.81, X w/ 23.58% & 4.94, The Invitation w/ 30.85% & 5.37

 

Final General Awareness: 0% chance of double digit opening

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% chance over 20M

Horror Awareness: 0% chance of double digits

Horror Interest: 55% chance of double digits, 44% chance over 20M

(Note Awareness and Interest will change the closer we are to release. This is merely for fun comparison's sake and to see how much the film needs to gain to see potentially greater rewards)

[DAJK]

The $3 Saturday is REALLY boosting ticket sales, far more than even I would have predicted. Enough that I do think there will be a significant Saturday bump across the board this weekend, even if you take into account the cheaper tickets. 

[LonePirate]

Of all the films in release, if my area is any indication, Crawdads, Super Pets and Minions may receive the biggest Friday to Saturday boost due to the $3 tickets. An increase of over 100% on Saturday for all three seems possible and probably much greater than 100%. TGM is doing well but nothing like those three. The two new releases (Gigi and Honk) are DOA.

 

ETA: TGM is definitely headed for a good Saturday. Here is the 1:30 pm true IMAX showing at Lincoln Square in NYC for $3 a seat. 
 

Edited September 2, 2022 by LonePirate

[Old Spice]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

The $3 Saturday is REALLY boosting ticket sales, far more than even I would have predicted. Enough that I do think there will be a significant Saturday bump across the board this weekend, even if you take into account the cheaper tickets. 

Absolutely. Super Pets had 8 tix sold for today at the biggest Cinemark in the Salt Lake Valley as of 8:30 this morning, but is over 500 in presales for tomorrow. Minions and Thor had a combined total of 2, but together are over 400 for tomorrow. I'm pretty confident that after this weekend National Cinema Day is going to be a regular thing. Great for families and great for the theaters!

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

Absolutely. Super Pets had 8 tix sold for today at the biggest Cinemark in the Salt Lake Valley as of 8:30 this morning, but is over 500 in presales for tomorrow. Minions and Thor had a combined total of 2, but together are over 400 for tomorrow. I'm pretty confident that after this weekend National Cinema Day is going to be a regular thing. Great for families and great for the theaters!

I’m hearing from people who still work at theatres that payroll budgets haven’t increased for tomorrow, so a lot of locations are being staffed as if it’s a regular Saturday on Labor Day weekend.

 

Incompetent if you ask me.

[Old Spice]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’m hearing from people who still work at theatres that payroll budgets haven’t increased for tomorrow, so a lot of locations are being staffed as if it’s a regular Saturday on Labor Day weekend.

 

Incompetent if you ask me.

Good Lord, that's a recipe for disaster. I look at the seating charts for tomorrow and this reminds me more of Christmas than Labor Day!

[M37]

19 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’m hearing from people who still work at theatres that payroll budgets haven’t increased for tomorrow, so a lot of locations are being staffed as if it’s a regular Saturday on Labor Day weekend.

 

Incompetent if you ask me.

I have heard the same, unfortunately - not sure if they are underestimating sales, or just don’t want to burn the labor cost. Either way, it’s poor management 

 

I posed this question in last weekend thread (I think), but I believe a $20M+ Saturday is possible, which at $3/ticket would be one of - if not the - highest admit days post pandemic (7-8M range)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I have heard the same, unfortunately - not sure if they are underestimating sales, or just don’t want to burn the labor cost. Either way, it’s poor management 

 

I posed this question in last weekend thread (I think), but I believe a $20M+ Saturday is possible, which at $3/ticket would be one of - if not the - highest admit days post pandemic (7-8M range)

I am seeing NWH doing $1.1-1.3M. Seems hard to think $20M from that.

[LonePirate]

A lot of movies in my area are seeing a 9:00-9:30 am showing being added for Saturday, pushing them to five shows per screen for the day instead of the usual four showings per screen. Ticket prices may be anywhere from 1/4th-1/7th normal prices but I am seeing ticket volumes definitely exceeding 4x-7x to compensate.

[M37]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am seeing NWH doing $1.1-1.3M. Seems hard to think $20M from that.

My official estimate (at least for Derby purposes) is more in the $15-$18M (5-6M admit) range, but it’s really an unknown, so at least wanted to throw out that admit math/marker in advance

 

With that said, am expecting essentially a super-sized Discount Tuesday effect, where family and senior/adult movies (Pets, Minions, Thor, TGM, Crawdads, etc) are the biggest beneficiaries. In that respect NWH may not necessarily be representative of the how rest of the market performs, given the smaller Tuesday bumps it had back in Jan/Feb

[filmlover]

Sales for tomorrow are bonkers near me. Hopefully the Sunday drops won't be too severe due to tickets reverting back to regular prices.

[Ryan Reynolds]

ticket sales look great tomorrow, lots of screenings 80% full for weeks old movies , considering this was advertised for less than a week its insane

[Goldenhour36]

Barbarian (Tracking Day 1) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday- 59/672 (3 Showings) 

 

 

Spoiler

7:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 39 Tickets sold, 13.88% of seats (281) are sold  

10:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 4 Tickets sold, 1.42% of seats (281) are sold 

8:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 16 Tickets sold, 14.55% of seats (110) are sold 

 

 

Friday- 34/1564 (8 Showings) 

 

 

Spoiler

1:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 5 Tickets sold, 1.78% of seats (281) are sold 

4:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 4 Tickets sold, 1.42% of seats (281) are sold 

7:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 15 Tickets sold, 5.34% of seats (281) are sold 

10:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 2 Tickets sold, 0.71% of seats (281) are sold 

12:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 4 Tickets sold, 3.64% of seats (110) are sold 

3:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 2 Tickets sold, 1.82% of seats (110) are sold 

6:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (110) are sold 

9:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 2 Tickets sold, 1.82% of seats (110) are sold 

 

 

Total: 93 Tickets sold, 4.16% of seats (2236) are sold 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 1): 944 Tickets sold, 37.50% of seats (2517) were sold (x0.099) 

Bullet Train (Tracking Day 1): 801 Tickets sold, 32.46% of seats (2468) were sold (x0.116) 

Fall (Tracking Day 1): 30 Tickets sold, 5.57% of seats (539) were sold (x3.100) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

No Showings Yet 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

No Showings Yet 

 

SUM Total: 

93 Tickets sold, 4.16% of seats (2236) are sold 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 1): 945 Tickets sold, 14.57% of seats (6085) were sold (x0.098) 

Bullet Train (Tracking Day 1): 821 Tickets sold, 3.97% of seats (7073) were sold (x0.113) 

Fall (Tracking Day 1): 30 Tickets sold, 5.57% of seats (539) were sold (x3.100) 

 

 

 

[Goldenhour36]

Lifemark (Tracking Day 1) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday- No Showings 

 

Friday- 14/158 (1 Showing) 

 

Spoiler

7:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 14 Tickets sold, 8.86% of seats (158) are sold 

 

 

Total: 14 Tickets sold, 8.86% of seats (158) are sold 

Comps 

DC League of Super-Pets (Tracking Day 1): 69 Tickets sold, 1.85% of seats (3731) were sold (x0.203) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 1): 47 Tickets sold, 8.80% of seats (534) were sold (x0.298) 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 1): 14 Tickets sold, 2.08% of seats (674) were sold (x1.000) 

Gigi and Nate (Tracking Day 1): 10 Tickets sold, 1.61% of seats (623) were sold (x1.400) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

No Showings Yet 

 

Valdosta Cinemas  

No Showings Yet 

 

SUM Total: 

14 Tickets sold, 8.86% of seats (158) are sold 

Comps 

DC League of Super-Pets (Tracking Day 1): 69 Tickets sold, 1.19% of seats (5805) were sold (x0.203) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 1): 47 Tickets sold, 8.80% of seats (534) were sold (x0.298) 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 1): 14 Tickets sold, 0.56% of seats (2498) were sold (x1.000) 

Gigi and Nate (Tracking Day 1): 10 Tickets sold, 1.61% of seats (623) were sold (x1.400) 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins THU

 

Spider-man: No Way Home - 1030/22281 (89 showings) $11,526

Around $550-600K previews.

 

$3M weekend may be.

 

Edit: FRI PS a bit better than I thought. $3.5M 3-days may be.

Friday - 2107/44161 (159 showings) $23,634

$1.1-1.2M FRI. Better than I expected. 

 

SAT sales also looking solid. Good increase today. Weekend may be $4-4.5M.

[Krissykins]

C- Cinemascore for Honk for Jesus 

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Friday - 2107/44161 (159 showings) $23,634

$1.1-1.2M FRI. Better than I expected. 

 

SAT sales also looking solid. Good increase today. Weekend may be $4-4.5M.

still bad/sad, when Avatar special edition did 4 million in 800 theaters it was out of the top 10 domestic ow

[Old Spice]

46 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

C- Cinemascore for Honk for Jesus 

Honk for Jesus, Save your Money.