The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

I could see Plane getting some. Magic Mike 3 maybe? Should get at least 5 clean weeks at a minimum.

 

ugh, I would see MM3 twice if it got Dolby.  Just like I saw MMXL twice in DBOX 😂

[marveldcfox]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think it could keep having a show at them as long as it keep running.

 

Avatar 1 had a 7 months+ run at an IMAX in India. Had 200k+ admits. Similar case in Sydney I think.

Pathan will take away all the imax screens in January.

[Eric Prime]

35 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

ugh, I would see MM3 twice if it got Dolby.  Just like I saw MMXL twice in DBOX 😂

I would see it twice if they had Gabriel Iglesias in there. But those cowards didn't bring him back. 😠

[Grebacio]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

is it going wide?

and im sure cameron is willing to share with himself if needed

Avatar 2 and Titanic would be a dope double feature 

[Alexdube]

2 hours ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

Lets see if I'm just as funny again in 10 weeks  

Well I don't make a lot of hard predictions because I think anything can happen in this run, but I'm confident it's going to be above 10m on its 9th weekend. I'm going to predict above $15M, just to make it interesting

 

see you there 😉

[M37]

Crunchyroll is supposed to have another anime release in “early 2023”, and from 2/10 on the IMAX calendar fills up, both domestically and internationally, so they may angle for a spot before that date, if IMAX is willing agree to at least a majority or shows

 

But nothing prior to Titanic (besides Pathaan on 1/25, which I believe will be limited) should be able to wrestle away most of the IMAX shows, though Avatwo’s longer running time makes is somewhat more difficult to run a 2/2 split 

[JustLurking]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Crunchyroll is supposed to have another anime release in “early 2023”, and from 2/10 on the IMAX calendar fills up, both domestically and internationally, so they may angle for a spot before that date, if IMAX is willing agree to at least a majority or shows

 

But nothing prior to Titanic (besides Pathaan on 1/25, which I believe will be limited) should be able to wrestle away most of the IMAX shows, though Avatwo’s longer running time makes is somewhat more difficult to run a 2/2 split 

Not entirely sure what that release from crunchy could be off the top of my mind, but it's probably not going wide so I don't think it makes any difference for IMAX.

[Eric Prime]

On 12/4/2022 at 11:32 PM, Eric Dielman said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	2115	26516	7.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 99

 

Comp

2.445x of F9 T-11 (17.36M)

2.725x of Venom 2 T-11 (31.62M)

3.185x of No Time to Die T-11 (20.07M)

2.812x of Dune T-11 (14.34M)

3.537x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-11 (21.22M)

1.289x of Top Gun 2 T-11 (24.82M)

1.140x of Jurassic World 3 T-11 (20.53M)

2.772x of Black Adam T-11 (21.07M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	2192	26516	8.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 77

 

Comp

2.460x of F9 T-10 (17.47M)

2.582x of Venom 2 T-10 (29.95M)

2.919x of No Time to Die T-10 (18.39M)

2.775x of Dune T-10 (14.15M)

3.341x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-10 (20.05M)

1.284x of Top Gun 2 T-10 (24.73M)

1.127x of Jurassic World 3 T-10 (20.29M)

2.709x of Black Adam T-10 (20.59M)

[Eric Prime]

On 12/4/2022 at 11:39 PM, Eric Dielman said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	493	11535	4.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 26

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.332x of Sing 2 T-17 (3.23M)

1.108x of Sonic 2 T-17 (6.92M)

5.539x of Minions 2 T-17 (59.55M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.333x of Sing 2 T-17 (2.71M)

0.058x of Sonic 2 T-17 (365K)

0.292x of Minions 2 T-17 (3.14M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	496	11535	4.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 29

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.322x of Sing 2 T-16 (3.13M)

1.064x of Sonic 2 T-16 (6.65M)

4.550x of Minions 2 T-16 (48.92M)

33.067x of Super Pets T-16 (72.75M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.218x of Sing 2 T-16 (1.77M)

0.062x of Sonic 2 T-16 (389K)

0.266x of Minions 2 T-16 (2.86M)

1.933x of Super Pets T-16 (4.25M)

[Eric Prime]

On 12/4/2022 at 11:44 PM, Eric Dielman said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-32 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	12	5433	0.22%

 

Comp

0.095x of Nope T-32 (609K)

Wanted to do this earlier, but I was too tired to track it. But yeah, felt like I wanted to give this the college try even if it won't sell much initially. Feels like this has a chance to do a Devil Inside-level opening (not in terms of IM hopefully), so wanted to give this a shot. Won't have anything else in 2023 until Ant-Man anyways.

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	13	5433	0.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.098x of Nope T-31 (625K)

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Not entirely sure what that release from crunchy could be off the top of my mind, but it's probably not going wide so I don't think it makes any difference for IMAX.

Suzume, the new Makoto Shinkai film would probably fit the bill. Both his last two movies were screened in IMAX, though not necessarily alongside the initial release. 

[JustLurking]

25 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Suzume, the new Makoto Shinkai film would probably fit the bill. Both his last two movies were screened in IMAX, though not necessarily alongside the initial release. 

Maybe, but that'd be 2 months or less from the Japanese release to release in January. Possible, I guess, but that's really fast for crunchy. And considering his last two films opened below 2M, would probably be an uphill battle getting theaters to give it (many) imax screens in that time.

Edited December 6, 2022 by JustLurking

[Lothar]

Does Fandango tickets tracking link works for you guys? I see access denied. How do I track? 

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Maybe, but that'd be 2 months or less from the Japanese release to release in January. Possible, I guess, but that's really fast for crunchy. And considering his last two films opened below 2M, would probably be an uphill battle getting theaters to give it (many) imax screens in that time.

We weebs tend to congregate around the PLFs which is why a lot of anime tend to get them. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	145	18173	21484	3311	15.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

177

 

T-11 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	443.24		46	747		0/75	11084/11831	6.31%		2915	113.58%		22.61m
Bats	74.10		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		21117	15.68%		16.01m
FB3	399.88		71	828		0/154	22435/23263	3.56%		4456	74.30%		23.99m
TGM	68.30		235	4848		0/259	31085/35933	13.49%		11474	28.86%		13.15m
JWD	110.59		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	30.19%		19.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         772/7309  [10.56% sold]
Matinee:     430/2671  [16.10% | 12.99% of all tickets sold]
3D:         2267/15634  [14.50% | 68.47% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1778/7439  [23.90% | 57.72% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	145	18011	21484	3473	16.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

162

 

T-10 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	418.43		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	119.14%		21.34m
Bats	74.96		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		21117	16.45%		16.19m
FB3	381.65		82	910		0/164	23326/24236	3.75%		4456	77.94%		22.90m
TGM	68.94		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	30.27%		13.28m
JWD	109.01		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	31.67%		19.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         807/7309  [11.04% sold]
Matinee:     446/2671  [16.70% | 12.84% of all tickets sold]
3D:         2379/15634  [15.22% | 68.50% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1845/7439  [24.80% | 57.01% of all tickets sold]

[Nero]

6 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Pathan will take away all the imax screens in January.

There's Rohit Shetty's circus movie coming in December 

[marveldcfox]

3 hours ago, Nero said:

There's Rohit Shetty's circus movie coming in December 

That chutiyah movie will not get 3d screens let alone imax. Indian cinema owners are not chutiyahs, I hope. Frankly, that movie needs to bomb hard. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/5/2022 at 8:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-10	Jax	5	69	134	1,084	10,350	10.47%
		Phx	6	70	91	718	10,839	6.62%
		Ral	8	66	70	911	8,149	11.18%
	Total		19	205	295	2,713	29,338	9.25%
I Wanna Dance	T-17	Jax	5	15	16	16	1,454	1.10%
		Phx	4	13	16	16	1,277	1.25%
		Ral	9	25	30	30	2,579	1.16%
	Total		17	53	62	62	5,310	1.17%
Puss in Boots	T-16	Jax	5	29	0	20	3,051	0.66%
		Phx	5	25	4	13	3,084	0.42%
		Ral	6	34	0	26	3,922	0.66%
	Total		16	88	4	59	10,057	0.59%

*New sales since Saturday morning

 

Avatar 2 T-10 comps

 - Eternals - 1.63x (15.47m)

 - TG2 - .813x (15.68m)

 - JW3 - .893x (16.05m)

 - F9 - 3.36x (23.84m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.74x (23.8m)

 - NTTD - 5.75x (29.89m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.23x (19.38m)

 

Puss in Boots T-16 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .205x (1.02m)

 - Minions 2 - .265x (2.84m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-17 comps

 - Elvis - .504x (1.61m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-9	Jax	5	73	73	1,144	10,414	10.99%
		Phx	7	82	78	796	11,645	6.84%
		Ral	8	66	25	936	8,149	11.49%
ATP: 16.67	Total		20	221	176	2,876	30,208	9.52%
I Wanna Dance	T-16	Jax	5	15	4	20	1,454	1.38%
		Phx	4	13	2	18	1,277	1.41%
		Ral	9	25	1	31	2,579	1.20%
	Total		17	53	7	69	5,310	1.30%
Puss in Boots	T-15	Jax	5	29	0	20	3,051	0.66%
		Phx	5	25	0	13	3,084	0.42%
		Ral	6	34	5	31	3,922	0.79%
	Total		16	88	5	64	10,057	0.64%

 

Avatar 2 T-9 comps

 - Eternals - 1.61x (15.26m)

 - TG2 - .827x (15.95m)

 - JW3 - .891x (16.04m)

 - F9 - 3.33x (23.63m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - 5.46x (28.38m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.18x (19.09m)

 - Dune - 4.2x (21.41m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 18.38m

 - JW3 - 18m

 - FB3 - 23.86m

 

Puss in Boots T-15 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .212x (1.055m)

 - Minions 2 - .258x (2.77m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-16 comps

 - Elvis - .439x (1.41m)

[Nero]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

That chutiyah movie will not get 3d screens let alone imax. Indian cinema owners are not chutiyahs, I hope. Frankly, that movie needs to bomb hard. 

Ofc not 3D but going by his past track record high chance he can get some IMAX screens

[ZackM]

21 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	6	3	0	2	7
Seats Added	490	614	0	489	866
Seats Sold	4,362	3,073	3,225	3,282	2,838
12/4/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,451	85,267	744,524	11.45%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	19	54	126
ATP
$18.87

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	126	6	3	0	2
Seats Added	14,059	490	614	0	489
Seats Sold	4,766	4,362	3,073	3,225	3,282
12/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,577	90,033	758,583	11.87%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	20	63	140
ATP
$18.84

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8