The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Babylon tickets on sale now, starting at 3:00 that Thursday.

[M37]

On 12/3/2022 at 1:28 PM, M37 said:

Updating now that we have more Alpha comps

 

Sure looking (at least to me) like ~$18M is the target (for now). Fwiw, an 8.3x from that Thursday would be a $150M OW, or the lower end of the current PBO range. Certainly can make the case it goes higher, but also not unrealistic that it goes lower, given the pace needed to match for the last week ramp-up

Updated for T-10. Will leave the analysis/speculation from here to others

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/5/2022 at 9:25 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Avatar 2	PLF	43	316	1,830	6,710	27.27%	$15.87	$29,045.56
		Standard	15	134	405	2,106	19.23%	$12.04	$4,875.68
	Total		58	450	2,235	8,816	25.35%	$15.18	$33,921.24
T-11	Avatar 2 (Fri)	PLF	63	427	1,621	10,002	16.21%	$16.35	$26,502.77
		Standard	21	132	418	3,024	13.82%	$12.49	$5,219.75
	Total		84	559	2,039	13,026	15.65%	$15.56	$31,722.52
T-12	Avatar 2 (Sat)	PLF	60	435	1,706	9,327	18.29%	$15.43	$26,323.88
		Standard	21	79	386	3,024	12.76%	$10.84	$4,185.59
	Total		81	514	2,092	12,351	16.94%	$14.58	$30,509.47
T-13	Avatar 2 (Sun)	PLF	63	264	971	10,002	9.71%	$14.96	$14,524.01
		Standard	21	127	298	3,024	9.85%	$9.83	$2,929.94
	Total		84	391	1,269	13,026	9.74%	$13.75	$17,453.95

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Avatar 2	N	37	330	1,767	5,693	31.04%	$15.97	$28,216.99
		Y	21	120	468	3,123	14.99%	$12.19	$5,704.25
	Total		58	450	2,235	8,816	25.35%	$15.18	$33,921.24
T-11	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	37	379	1,600	6,105	26.21%	$16.52	$26,428.32
		Y	47	180	439	6,921	6.34%	$12.06	$5,294.20
	Total		84	559	2,039	13,026	15.65%	$15.56	$31,722.52
T-12	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	36	277	1,002	5,880	17.04%	$17.47	$17,506.98
		Y	45	237	1,090	6,471	16.84%	$11.93	$13,002.49
	Total		81	514	2,092	12,351	16.94%	$14.58	$30,509.47
T-13	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	37	126	426	6,105	6.98%	$18.03	$7,678.73
		Y	47	265	843	6,921	12.18%	$11.60	$9,775.22
	Total		84	391	1,269	13,026	9.74%	$13.75	$17,453.95

*All new sales since Thursday morning

 

Avatar previews T-10 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - Batman - missed

 - Thor 4 - .383x (11.1m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.292x (18.99m)

 - FB3 - 4.88x (29.28m)

 

Avatar Fri T-11 comps

 - NWH - missed

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.  Great sales for Friday and Saturday so far though!

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Avatar 2 (Fri)	PLF	63	118	1,739	10,002	17.39%	$16.31	$28,359.92
		Standard	21	29	447	3,024	14.78%	$12.52	$5,596.44
	Total		84	147	2,186	13,026	16.78%	$15.53	$33,956.36
T-11	Avatar 2 (Sat)	PLF	60	76	1,782	9,327	19.11%	$15.44	$27,514.88
		Standard	21	20	406	3,024	13.43%	$10.80	$4,386.66
	Total		81	96	2,188	12,351	17.72%	$14.58	$31,901.54
T-12	Avatar 2 (Sun)	PLF	63	68	1,039	10,002	10.39%	$14.91	$15,494.33
		Standard	21	29	327	3,024	10.81%	$9.95	$3,253.94
	Total		84	97	1,366	13,026	10.49%	$13.72	$18,748.27
T-9	Avatar 2	PLF	43	88	1,918	6,710	28.58%	$15.90	$30,491.68
		Standard	15	28	433	2,106	20.56%	$11.98	$5,185.28
	Total		58	116	2,351	8,816	26.67%	$15.18	$35,676.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	37	105	1,705	6,105	27.93%	$16.51	$28,146.57
		Y	47	42	481	6,921	6.95%	$12.08	$5,809.79
	Total		84	147	2,186	13,026	16.78%	$15.53	$33,956.36
T-11	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	36	45	1,074	5,880	18.27%	$17.33	$18,616.32
		Y	45	51	1,114	6,471	17.22%	$11.93	$13,285.22
	Total		81	96	2,188	12,351	17.72%	$14.58	$31,901.54
T-12	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	37	21	447	6,105	7.32%	$18.05	$8,067.95
		Y	47	76	919	6,921	13.28%	$11.62	$10,680.32
	Total		84	97	1,366	13,026	10.49%	$13.72	$18,748.27
T-9	Avatar 2	N	37	81	1,848	5,693	32.46%	$16.00	$29,574.54
		Y	21	35	503	3,123	16.11%	$12.13	$6,102.42
	Total		58	116	2,351	8,816	26.67%	$15.18	$35,676.96

 

Avatar previews T-9 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - Batman - missed

 - Thor 4 - .391x (11.35m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.257x (18.47m)

 - FB3 - 4.495x (26.97m)

 

Avatar Fri T-10 comps

 - NWH - missed

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.  

[marveldcfox]

48 minutes ago, Nero said:

Ofc not 3D but going by his past track record high chance he can get some IMAX screens

They would have marketed if it was getting imax. It ain't. Pathan will take all the imax and 4dx screens.

[GOGODanca]

Suzume no Tojimari by Makoto Shinkai releasing on April 14th

[GOGODanca]

M3GAN Thursday Previews (T-30)

 

27 tickets sold across 20  showtimes at  8 AMC's

[Tokugennumataka]

Unreal acceleration last couple of days. If the reactions are amazing, sales can further boost. 

[filmlover]

There’s a new preview for M3GAN before Violent Night (that isn’t online yet I think) that mostly highlights the dance scene that’s gone viral. They know their audience lmao.

[GOGODanca]

T-9 Avatar Way of the Water

 

1921 tickets sold across 10 AMC's

 

1491 PLF

170 3D

260 2D

 

2.55x (T-8 Black Adam) = $19.4m

0.48 x (T-10 Black Panther WF) = $13.55m

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Calgary, Alberta Canada

Thurs Dec 15 (taken Dec 6)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent	increase
Thurs	8	37	650	6952	7602	0.0855	196

 

 

Small housekeeping-98 seats added to total seats due to clerical error. Also 1 show added 

 

Starting Thursday I will be doing Thurs and Fri show counts.

[filmlover]

Movie Theaters Brace for Holiday Box Office Dominated by ‘Avatar 2’ … and Little Else https://t.co/58qPEU5VM2

— Variety (@Variety) December 6, 2022

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Even Variety knows the holiday box office is going to be boring. Avatar is obviously going to be massive but when that's all there is, it's pretty boring and bleak. Hopefully Puss in Boots breaks out big. Don't have too much hope for I Wanna Dance.

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

In a normal year we would be talking about a packed period with a big biopic, a strong animation offer, a Brad Pitt star vehicle and freaking Avatar. But since all bombs nowadays we say "Avatar and nothing else".

[wboxoffice]

I still think that Puss in Boots 2 and I Wanna Dance With Somebody will both eventually cross 100 million domestic... Puss in Boots 2 I think is a lock and I'm optimistic about IWDWS because even with a 15-20 million opening the Holidays will give it legs and it should reach the milestone by the end of January...  At least I hope so! 

 

Also we have to remember that Avatar 2's budget for both production and advertisement is so huge gigantic that just because it will do over a 1-2 billion dollars doesn't mean that it is more "successful" than some of the movies that are not as big at the box office but have a small budget...

 

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by wboxoffice

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/5/2022 at 5:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

648

2354

27.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

411

1774

23.17%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2964	286	24679	12.01%	15	163

 

AMCs sold	1775
Cinemarks sold	447
Regals sold	425
Harkins sold	317

 

0.561x Thor L&T T-10 (16.27M)

0.836x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (16.11M)

1.88x Eternals T-10 (17.88M)

2.81x Dune T-10 (14.34M)

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

665

2354

28.25%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

428

1774

24.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3101	137	24679	12.57%	15	163

 

 

AMCs sold	1832
Cinemarks sold	475
Regals sold	468
Harkins sold	326

 

0.568x Thor L&T T-9 (16.48M)

1.29x Jurassic World Dominion T-9 (23.31M)

0.838x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (16.14M)

0.771x Batman T-9 (16.66M)

1.87x Eternals T-9 (17.80M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/5/2022 at 5:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-10 Thursday(110 showings): 3049(+400)/26311

0.581x Thor L&T T-10 (16.85M)

0.742x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (14.30M)

 

T-11 Friday(158 showings): 3248(+423)/38860

1.13x Thor L&T T-11 (45.75M)

0.824x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (26.99M)

 

T-12 Saturday(154 showings): 3444(+400)/39553

2.26x Thor L&T T-12

1.26x Top Gun Maverick T-12 (47.91M)

 

T-13 Sunday(175 showings): 1747(+389)/44851

2.98x Thor L&T T-13

2.62x Top Gun Maverick T-13

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-9 Thursday(110 showings): 3283(+234)/26311

0.597x Thor L&T T-9 (17.30M)

1.49x Jurassic World Dominion T-9 (26.90M)

0.745x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (14.35M)

0.704x Batman T-9 (15.20M)

 

T-10 Friday(158 showings): 3451(+203)/38860

1.12x Thor L&T T-10 (45.21M)

1.58x Jurassic World Dominion T-10 (65.71M)

0.826x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (27.05M)

1.65x Batman T-10 (57.90M)

 

T-11 Saturday(154 showings): 3644(+200)/39553

2.25x Thor L&T T-11

2.33x Jurassic World Dominion T-11

1.23x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (46.76M)

3.33x Batman T-11

 

T-12 Sunday(175 showings): 1826(+79)/44851

2.95x Thor L&T T-12

3.41x Jurassic World Dominion T-12

2.46x Top Gun Maverick T-12

6.84x Batman T-12

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/5/2022 at 5:28 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-10 Thursday(129 showings): 4662(+382)/18917 ATP: $16.40

0.367x Thor L&T T-10 (10.65M)

1.15x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-10 (17.54M)

 

T-11 Friday(203 showings): 5921(+476)/29837 ATP: $16.14

0.557x Thor L&T T-11 (22.59M)

1.28x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (41.92M)

 

T-12 Saturday(214 showings): 7066(+793)/29268 ATP: $15.28

0.701x Thor L&T T-12 (29.51M)

1.66x Top Gun Maverick T-12

 

T-13 Sunday(207 showings): 4229(+565/30364 ATP: $15.05

0.763x Thor L&T T-13 (24.79M)

1.99x Top Gun Maverick T-13

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 Thursday(139 showings): 4963(+301)/20052 ATP: $16.38

0.381x Thor L&T T-9 (11.04M)

0.950x Jurassic World Dominion T-9 (17.09M)

1.14x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-9 (17.37M)

0.512x Batman Thurs only T-9 (9.02M)

 

T-10 Friday(217 showings): 6583(+662)/31405 ATP: $16.00

0.95x Thor L&T T-10 (24.13M)

1.24x Jurassic World Dominion T-10 (51.57M)

1.32x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (43.23M)

0.671x Batman T-11 (23.48M)

 

T-11 Saturday(223 showings): 7495(+429)/32625 ATP: $15.29

0.718x Thor L&T T-11 (30.24M)

1.46x Jurassic World Dominion T-11

1.62x Top Gun Maverick T-11

0.780x Batman T-11 (33.72M)

 

T-12 Sunday(214 showings): 4580(+351)/31134 ATP: $15.04

0.792x Thor L&T T-12 (25.74M)

1.71x Jurassic World Dominion T-12

1.93x Top Gun Maverick T-12

1.09x Batman T-12 (37.12M)

[hw64]

Big review bump here we come?

[Tinalera]

9 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Big review bump here we come?

Imo this is one of those situations where this movie ill think be critic proof. This could get a 30 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes and its effect will be not massively affecting. I think this is Phantom Menace/Force Awakens territory where tons will see it because its been so long since last Avatar film and all those memories of it. 

 

I think the bigger thing to see will be Avatar 3 in two years when it hasn't had that long time, and with 2 fresh in peoples minds, how they respond to it accordingly.

[Flamengo81]

15 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Big review bump here we come?

The comps were already trending higher this couple of days, after these reviews I think there is only going to get higher and higher. There is also the RT embargo ahead so it will definitely give it another push.