The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

M3gan, counted today for today (ca. 2hours later that usual which makes the presales look a tiny bit better):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 141 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 75 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 52 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 141 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 348 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 782.

Up great 74% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 218 sold tickets,

The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 241

The Invisible Man (1.65M) had 927
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164,

Barbarian (850k) had 289
HK (4.95M) had 1.314,
Scream (3.5M) had 1.581

and Smile (2M) had 467 sold tickets.
 

So 2-3M from previews is my guess.

M3gan, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 220 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 56 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 29 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 34 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 45 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 102 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 266 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 752.

Up very good 49% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): The Invitation had 204 sold tickets,

Prey for the Devil had 262,

Malignant had 237,

Old had 500,

The Invisible Man had 894,

Barbarian had 249,

Scream had 1.409,

HE had 1.254
and Smile had 549 sold tickets.
 

I „predict“ over 25M and don't rule out 30M OW.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

More about Regal's Monday Mystery Movie: they've already said it's not from a streamer...

 

 

 

[Ronin46]

Missing?

[filmlover]

31 minutes ago, datpepper said:

For those wondering about tracking this title (assuming @3RIC since he asked about this one), House Party is potentially not going to open wide. Friend of mine did a scan and he’s only seeing about 500-800 or so theaters with it booked currently. There aren’t any chains still waiting to put up tickets, either.

 

Plane is also looking more like 1.5-2k than 2.5/3/3.5k.

I'm not surprised, both of these movies reek of "January Dump." I'm guessing the only reason House Party's getting a theatrical release is because they figured it would get more clicks once it hit HBO Max in the long run compared to when it was just going to be tossed on the streaming service with zero fanfare and quickly lost among the content pile.

[Porsha]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

For those wondering about tracking this title (assuming @3RIC since he asked about this one), House Party is potentially not going to open wide. Friend of mine did a scan and he’s only seeing about 500-800 or so theaters with it booked currently. There aren’t any chains still waiting to put up tickets, either.

 

Plane is also looking more like 1.5-2k than 2.5/3/3.5k.

Since you figured out the last two Regal Mystery Movies before release, do you have any idea what the Mystery Movie is this Monday?

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M3GAN	T-0	Jax	6	24	79	171	2,224	7.69%
		Phx	7	29	96	207	4,292	4.82%
		Ral	8	30	101	232	3,792	6.12%
	Total		21	83	276	610	10,308	5.92%

 

M3GAN T-0 comps

 - Antlers - 5.169x (1.91m)

 - Nope - .307x (1.97m)

 - Black Phone - .902x (2.35m)

 - Candyman - 1.18x (2.24m)

 - Halloween Kills - .337x (1.63m)

 - Halloween Ends - .425x (2.295m)

 - Men - 4.04x (1.71m)

 - Northman - 1.11x (1.5m)

 - The Invitation - 3.262x (2.53m)

 - X - 2.735x (1.2m)

 

This has been blowing up the last few days.  Expecting over 2m for previews now, could get to 2.5m with final update.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M3GAN	1-Hr	Jax	6	27	202	373	2,413	15.46%
		Phx	7	34	134	341	4,602	7.41%
		Ral	8	36	165	397	4,332	9.16%
	Total		21	97	501	1,111	11,347	9.79%

 

M3GAN T-1 hr comps

 - Antlers - 5.847x (2.16m)

 - Nope - .382x (2.45m)

 - Black Phone - .965x (2.51m)

 - Candyman - 1.195x (2.27m)

 - Halloween Kills - .446x (2.16m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Men - 4.75x (2.01m)

 - Northman - 1.343x (2.01m)

 - The Invitation - 3.64x (2.82m)

 - X - 3.24x (1.43m)

All PG-13 - 2.23m

All horror - 2.65m

All movies - 2.37m

 

Looking good for 2.5m.  As others have said, lack of PLF will hurt against some of these comps, but the walkups should get it there.

[misterpepp]

3 hours ago, datpepper said:

For those wondering about tracking this title (assuming @3RIC since he asked about this one), House Party is potentially not going to open wide. Friend of mine did a scan and he’s only seeing about 500-800 or so theaters with it booked currently. There aren’t any chains still waiting to put up tickets, either.

 

Plane is also looking more like 1.5-2k than 2.5/3/3.5k.

 

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm not surprised, both of these movies reek of "January Dump." I'm guessing the only reason House Party's getting a theatrical release is because they figured it would get more clicks once it hit HBO Max in the long run compared to when it was just going to be tossed on the streaming service with zero fanfare and quickly lost among the content pile.

 

To follow up on this, I'm hearing Magic Mike 3's release is also going to be similarly scaled down. Less promotion than originally anticipated for it, potentially less theaters too. Starting to believe those "WBD has no money" rumors are true.

 

2 hours ago, Porsha said:

Since you figured out the last two Regal Mystery Movies before release, do you have any idea what the Mystery Movie is this Monday?

 

I should know for sure very soon, but I can say that I think (but again, not for sure yet) that it can be found out merely through elimination. There's only one PG-13 major studio release for the rest of January, so unless they're playing something that's already out at many locations (hence why I don't think it's Otto, which hit ~600+ locations this weekend), or if they're playing something that's not out until February (unlikely), then Missing is really the only option.

Edited January 6, 2023 by datpepper

[Eric is Quiet]

18 hours ago, 3RIC said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	488	8900	5.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 171

 

Comp

0.190x of The Conjuring 3 T-1 (1.86M)

0.277x of Halloween Kills T-1 (1.34M)

0.349x of Scream T-1 (1.22M)

0.664x of The Black Phone T-1 (1.99M)

0.861x of Smile T-1 (1.72M)

0.280x of Halloween Ends T-1 (1.51M)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1114	8900	12.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 626

 

Comp

0.387x of Halloween Kills (1.88M)

0.512x of Scream (1.79M)

0.837x of The Black Phone (2.51M)

1.236x of Smile (2.47M)

0.407x of Halloween Ends (2.19M)

 

Imma be real and ignore the franchise comps and just go with 2.5M as a range here. So far, that seems to be how everybody else is rolling.

[keysersoze123]

I will post some data in an hour or so but based on partials it definitely looks like black phone. 3m+ previews looks good to me. Let us wait and see how walkups go rest of the day. 

[keysersoze123]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

M3gan Previews(T-1)

MTC1 - 21440/198348 308695.44 1461 shows

MTC2 - 12262/173893 150590.26 1439 shows

 

I must admit growth today is below what I expected. but this movie should be driven by walkups than huge presales. I am still hoping this pulls in a black phone like final day performance. 

M3gan MTC1 previews - 38285/203199 537292.09 1512 shows

 

 

FYI Black phone final numbers were - 52635/186950 747709.75 1470 shows. I am feeling good about M3gan beating that. 

[misterpepp]

I would also expect Mummies to be a more limited release on Feb 24 from WB as well, if it comes out at all.

 

It's rough out here.

[Ronin46]

Box Office Report

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$41.5 M	$513.5 M	-38%	4
2	M3GAN (Universal)	$26.0 M	$26.0 M	NEW	1
3	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$11.7 M	$86.4 M	-30%	3
4	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$3.4 M	$445.4 M	-34%	9
5	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar)	$2.3 M	$19.6 M	-41%	3
6	A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia)	$1.8 M	$1.9 M	+3,100%	2
7	Babylon (Paramount)	$1.2 M	$13.2 M	-54%	3
8	The Whale (A24)	$1.1 M	$8.1 M	-20%	5
9	Violent Night (Universal)	$1.0 M	$49.7 M	-53%	6

[GOGODanca]

the absolute state of warner brothers 

[Dragoncaine]

4 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Box Office Report

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$41.5 M	$513.5 M	-38%	4
2	M3GAN (Universal)	$26.0 M	$26.0 M	NEW	1
3	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$11.7 M	$86.4 M	-30%	3
4	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$3.4 M	$445.4 M	-34%	9
5	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar)	$2.3 M	$19.6 M	-41%	3
6	A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia)	$1.8 M	$1.9 M	+3,100%	2
7	Babylon (Paramount)	$1.2 M	$13.2 M	-54%	3
8	The Whale (A24)	$1.1 M	$8.1 M	-20%	5
9	Violent Night (Universal)	$1.0 M	$49.7 M	-53%	6

$26m would be excellent for M3gan. Really healthy weekend if it pans out for A2 and her.

[Nikostar]

Crazy how BPWK is still.in the top 5 2 months later 

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

812/7128 (11.39% sold) [+318 tickets]

35.95% of Nope at T-1                             (2.30m)

50.66% of Scream (2022) at T-1             (1.77m)

---

28.17% of Sonic 2 at T-1                           (1.76m)

20.20% of Minions 2 at T-1                       (2.17m)

39.04% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-1 (1.76m)

 

=====

 

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report [4:30pm - 4:45pm]:

1769/7305 (24.22% sold) [+957 tickets]

46.28% of Nope at T-0                             (2.96m)

68.30% of Scream (2022) at T-0             (2.39m)

---

44.77% of Sonic 2 at T-0                           (2.80m)

26.84% of Minions 2 at T-0                       (2.89m)

58.31% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-0 (2.62m)

 

====

 

 

This thing BLEW THE FUCK UP locally.  It sold nearly a 1000 tickets since last night.

 

Only skunk at the party is that Scream comp, but I took that much later in the day, and I also think it over-performed here locally.

 

Let's say 2.9m +/-.3m as a comp.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Porthos

[CJohn]

Magic Mike had potential for a nice total in February. WB is truly in the trash.

 

M3gan looking at a 30M+ OW and I am here for the queen's reign of terror.

[misterpepp]

5 hours ago, datpepper said:

Plane is also looking more like 1.5-2k than 2.5/3/3.5k.

 

Hmm, but now BOR is saying this'll be 2.9k+? Current theater bookings don't suggest that, but I'll take it if that's the case. Guess a whole lot of new bookings will show up on Tuesday.

Edited January 6, 2023 by datpepper

[charlie Jatinder]

At 6:45, M3GAN 4173/21593 (119 showings) $48,022

 

Probably 5.25k range final. Will point toward $3-3.25M previews. Sales have been moving in that direction from last three-four days. Weekend should be $25M+, likely around $30M.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

M3gan MTC1 previews - 38285/203199 537292.09 1512 shows

 

 

FYI Black phone final numbers were - 52635/186950 747709.75 1470 shows. I am feeling good about M3gan beating that. 

M3gan MTC1 previews final - 52038/203860 721488.86 1517 shows

 

Very good finish for the day. Not as good as Black phone but it started higher for the day and finished close to BP. I am thinking 3m previews as well.