The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

I've checked the sales for Shazam! around me and for this far out they don't seem terrible exactly? Probably important to keep in mind that it's a sequel to a $140M grosser (and will probably rely more on family business than most comic book properties do) so there's likely a ceiling as to how much this can make.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

If as low as 16 is on the table, then yes there is. 
 

Emphasis on outside chance. We’ll see how bad immediate WOM is. 

16 isn't on the table, and even with 16, 75 wouldn't be on the table. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Unlikely, not at all impossible. People don’t care about ant man to start with. Add awful reviews to the mix (headed for sub 40% at this rate) and failing to see where any strong box office run is supposed to come from? 

It could match worst MCU multiplier and still go past Ant Man.

[keysersoze123]

Ant-man 3 Previews MTC1 Final - 311624/1097707 5169321.82

 

Meh final day. Nothing more to say. Probably let @charlie Jatinder extrapolate from this. I think our Musketeer will be on the point again. 

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

The big issue that Shazam faces is the same issue Dark Phoenix was in a couple years ago. It was greenlit and produced before a huge franchise/corporate restructuring, and it now exists as a weird thing that doesn't build up to anything. So that means there's no investment for the fans, who are all preoccupied with the new Gunnverse stuff that's starting with The Flash, and by proxy the normies don't care either.

 

...still gonna track it tho lol

But it hasn't exactly been confirmed that there won't be a Shazam 3. If the Flash movie is supposed to reboot the universe and we're still keeping Jason Momoa's Aquaman and basically all the Suicide Squad stuff, then why not Shazam?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Feeling 18 as well. Sacto dark magic keeps winning.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Ronin46]

Well I am quite confused.

 

Previews of 18-19M and a multiplier of 5.5 still?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

But it hasn't exactly been confirmed that there won't be a Shazam 3. If the Flash movie is supposed to reboot the universe and we're still keeping Jason Momoa's Aquaman and basically all the Suicide Squad stuff, then why not Shazam?

this sequel did not make sense after huge under performance of the last movie and no move to make it a bigger movie by adding more familiar characters. So why would Gunn invest on another one, It makes zero financial sense when there are more popular characters to explore. Plus I would say Levi has not handled himself very well. That would be ok if he was successful. but combo of being controversial and not successful is not a recipe for future success. 

[Flamengo81]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Right until reactions drop, 150M looked like very good chance. If you were thinking it open less than 100M before reaction drop, clearly box office tracking ain't for you.

150M? Isn't that above like 95% of predictions over here? I thought most would agree that with decent WOM it should land in the 120-130M range.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

28 minutes ago, Notthereverseflash24 said:

As if people gave enough shit about Cavill cameo lol

Only reason I went to see the movie. 

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I disagree big time. Even before reactions hit it was trending well below Thor/Wakanda. It was looking like 22m if it had maintained the pace and that was never expected for an Ant-man movie. Just because of a sizable fanbase buys ticket on opening day does not mean this character is similar level as Thor !!!

i will let @Favorite Fearless Legion bat. there was a good shot at $25M+ previews before reactions.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

150M? Isn't that above like 95% of predictions over here? I thought most would agree that with decent WOM it should land in the 120-130M range.

give it 2016-2019 MCU WOM, it would have cleared $150M OW with ease.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I disagree big time. Even before reactions hit it was trending well below Thor/Wakanda. It was looking like 22m if it had maintained the pace and that was never expected for an Ant-man movie. Just because of a sizable fanbase buys ticket on opening day does not mean this character is similar level as Thor !!!

Remember Thor didn't really reach its potential either. It had eh reviews and WOM as well.

Sales were well ahead of Batman and Batman is relatively pre-sales heavier than other stuff.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man 3 Previews MTC1 Final - 311624/1097707 5169321.82

 

Meh final day. Nothing more to say. Probably let @charlie Jatinder extrapolate from this. I think our Musketeer will be on the point again. 

is it final though? its only 8:30-9 PM in West Coast. I wonder if it may squeek to 313-315.

[Flamengo81]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think our Musketeer will be on the point again. 

This shit is just mind blowing. I became a member one year ago, but I checked over here since before and I have a hard time remembering Phortos and his damn Sacto being off.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Remember Thor didn't really reach its potential either. It had eh reviews and WOM as well.

Sales were well ahead of Batman and Batman is relatively pre-sales heavier than other stuff.

I did not like any of the previous Ant-man movies and they were not universally beloved or anything. Why would this one break out like that. MCU fan base has grown big since IW/Endgame and that benefits these sequels with huge initial presales. After that they are on their own and I expected Ant-man to drop its comps. There were good 2+ weeks where that trend was crystal clear. it was selling well below Wakanda and Thor on similar days and trending down. This was not because of reactions. Reactions killed any hope of big burst. 

[Flamengo81]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

give it 2016-2019 MCU WOM, it would have cleared $150M OW with ease.

The thing is I don't think MCU is in the same state it was at it's peak at all, so no matter the WOM I think 150M was just off the table, at least for me. I find difficult to suppose this movie would have achieved that level of goodwill from the public and general interest. The latest 4 or 5 movies are much more telling than 2016-2019 ones IMO.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

is it final though? its only 8:30-9 PM in West Coast. I wonder if it may squeek to 313-315.

it does not sell after 530PM snapshot I took and this is where I take a final number. I am sure @ZackM will grab any walkups for late west coast shows. 

[Flamengo81]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sales were well ahead of Batman and Batman is relatively pre-sales heavier than other stuff.

But is Batman more pre-sales heavy than the current MCU? I personally don't think it is, just by brand alone it should do better with the casual folk than an Ant-Man movie. I mean... The Batman did 17.6M previews and still opened to 134M (it had the EA thing but still), Ant-Man is going to do the same or above and will strugle to go past 100M.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

This shit is just mind blowing. I became a member one year ago, but I checked over here since before and I have a hard time remembering Phortos and his damn Sacto being off.

F9. But everyone was off on that.