The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

I don't see why there would be a huge rush for Mario tickets. Its primary target audience is clearly supposed to be families (who will buy tickets closer to release).

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I don't see why there would be a huge rush for Mario tickets. Its primary target audience is clearly supposed to be families (who will buy tickets closer to release).

cause its sonic on steroids in terms of popularity with plenty of adults who play/played the game growing up and you'd expect a fan rush from them 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

cause its sonic on steroids in terms of popularity with plenty of adults who play/played the game growing up and you'd expect a fan rush from them 

Just because someone played a game or knows a franchise doesn't mean they will be interested in the film, even moreso if you're expecting them to be so interested they would rush out for tickets the day they go on sale

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Just because someone played a game or knows a franchise doesn't mean they will be interested in the film, even moreso if you're expecting them to be so interested they would rush out for tickets the day they go on sale

Exactly. Did Detective Pikachu teach folks nothing?

 

I do think this has more real world interest than that did though, both because of the big names involved and being the first movie actively targeting families since Christmas.

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Exactly. Did Detective Pikachu teach folks nothing?

 

I do think this has more real world interest than that did though, both because of the big names involved and being the first movie actively targeting families since Christmas.

Detective Pikachu literally got rid of all but one of the iconic main characters, this movie serves both fans and families 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I don't see why there would be a huge rush for Mario tickets. Its primary target audience is clearly supposed to be families (who will buy tickets closer to release).

Whole premise of why this could be an uber blockbuster was driven by how large its fan base is. So it had to show some signs of its fan base being excited in booking tickets early. So far we have seen any indications of that. But let us wait and see. i am not saying its going to bomb or anything. Just that our expectations of its OW have to be recalibrated if its just another original animation movie. 

Edited March 9, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Eric Prime]

On 3/8/2023 at 2:16 PM, Eric the Velocipastor said:

65 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	137	4978	2.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp - T-2

0.675x of Snake Eyes (945K)

2.446x of The 355 (856K)

0.643x of Moonfall (450K)

1.280x of Ambulance (896K)

0.039x of Jurassic World: Dominion (704K)

0.142x of Bullet Train (654K)

0.678x of Violent Night (746K)

0.945x of Plane (590K)

3.605x of Operation Fortune (793K)

 

Again, did this all last night, didn't publish until now.

65 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	192	4978	3.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-1

0.738x of Snake Eyes (1.03M)

2.526 of The 355 (884K)

0.784x of Moonfall (549K)

1.324x of Ambulance (927K)

0.046x of Jurassic World: Dominion (830K)

0.170x of Bullet Train (780K)

0.750x of Violent Night (825K)

0.881x of Plane (559K)

3.429x of Operation Fortune (754K)

[Mulder]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Whole premise of why this could be an uber blockbuster was driven by how large its fan base is. So it had to show some signs of its fan base being excited in booking tickets early. So far we have seen any indications of that. But let us wait and see. i am not saying its going to bomb or anything. Just that our expectations of its OW have to be recalibrated if its just another original animation movie. 

Its fan base of mainly children is the thing. Not really a massive fan base of adults. While yeah there's adult Mario fans, it's not like a superhero or SW type fanbase, it's very casual. 

[Eric Prime]

On 3/8/2023 at 2:27 PM, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	1568	13519	11.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 215

 

Comp - T-2

1.164x of Halloween Kills (5.65M)

1.471x of Scream (5.15M)

1.249x of Nope (8M)

1.097x of Halloween Ends (5.92M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	1922	13519	14.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 354

 

Comp - T-1

1.093x of Halloween Kills (5.3M)

1.376x of Scream (4.81M)

1.102x of Nope (7.05M)

1.103x of Halloween Ends (5.96M)

[Eric Prime]

On 3/8/2023 at 2:38 PM, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	341	17155	1.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp - T-9

1.018x of The Suicide Squad (4.17M)

0.259x of Shang-Chi (2.27M)

0.179x of Eternals (1.7M)

0.539x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.42M)

0.442x of Morbius (2.52M)

0.508x of Sonic 2 (3.18M)

0.469x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.81M)

0.169x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.04M)

0.398x of Black Adam (3.03M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	355	17155	2.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp - T-8

0.924x of The Suicide Squad (3.79M)

0.252x of Shang-Chi (2.22M)

0.178x of Eternals (1.69M)

0.526x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.37M)

0.416x of Morbius (2.37M)

0.489x of Sonic 2 (3.06M)

0.447x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.68M)

0.166x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3M)

0.384x of Black Adam (2.92M)

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	116	11326	13605	2279	16.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	177
Total Seats Sold Today	498

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	91.82		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	65.55%		5.23m
Sonic 2	79.05		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	57.68%		4.94m
Nope	100.89		710	2259		0/160	19054/21313	10.60%		3822	59.63%		6.46m
BA	72.26		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	50.71%		5.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      429/3287  [13.05% sold]
Matinee:     130/773  [16.82% | 5.70% of all tickets sold]
3D:           619/3342  [18.52% | 27.16% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:05pm - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	118	11473	14076	2603	18.49%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	471
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	324

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune [12:00-12:20]	108.87		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	89.30%		5.55m
Morb [12:00-12:40]	89.88		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	74.86%		5.12m
Nope [12:00-12:30]	91.17		596	2855		0/160	18458/21313	13.40%		3822	68.11%		5.84m
BA [11:35-12:25]	71.91		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	57.92%		5.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        506/3760  [13.46% sold]
Matinee:       155/773  [20.05% | 5.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            648/3485  [18.59% | 24.89% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Probs looking around 5.5 to 6.  The 3D percentage really ought to boost things, FWIW, as will the R-rating.  See where it lands soon enough.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

On 3/8/2023 at 2:47 PM, Eric the Velocipastor said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	633	13153	4.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

 

Comp - T-16

2.694x of The Suicide Squad (11.04M)

1.300x of Venom 2 (15.08M)

1.244x of No Time to Die (7.83M)

1.183x of Dune (6.03M)

3.165x of Uncharted (11.71M)

2.389x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (14.33M)

0.534x of Top Gun 2 (10.28M)

0.403x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.26M)

0.374x of Avatar 2 (6.37M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	670	13153	5.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

 

Comp - T-15

2.691x of The Suicide Squad (11.03M)

1.214x of Venom 2 (14.08M)

1.259x of No Time to Die (7.93M)

1.163x of Dune (5.93M)

3.059x of Uncharted (11.32M)

1.871x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (11.23M)

0.541x of Top Gun 2 (10.42M)

0.418x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.53M)

0.374x of Avatar 2 (6.36M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Scream VI Marcus Previews:

 

Seats Sold: 6086/50975

 

It's about 3x Smile's number which was also taken a couple hours before preview start. I wasn't able to get final numbers for Nope, but based on the pace that Nope was going at I think it's a bit  below where Nope was ticket wise. Generally seems consistent with others heading for mid 5s to 6 I suppose. 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[screambaby]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:05pm - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	118	11473	14076	2603	18.49%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	471
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	324

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune [12:00-12:20]	108.87		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	89.30%		5.55m
Morb [12:00-12:40]	89.88		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	74.86%		5.12m
Nope [12:00-12:30]	91.17		596	2855		0/160	18458/21313	13.40%		3822	68.11%		5.84m
BA [11:35-12:25]	71.91		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	57.92%		5.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        506/3760  [13.46% sold]
Matinee:       155/773  [20.05% | 5.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            648/3485  [18.59% | 24.89% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Probs looking around 5.5 to 6.  The 3D percentage really ought to boost things, FWIW, as will the R-rating.  See where it lands soon enough.

Which would  indicate about 40 mill OW?

[Krissykins]

20 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Which would  indicate about 40 mill OW?

I don’t think so. Scream 5 had an 8.7x including a holiday Sunday. 
 

$5m previews could lead to the franchise record though, about $35m. 

[Borja9198]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t think so. Scream 5 had an 8.7x including a holiday Sunday. 
 

$5m previews could lead to the franchise record though, about $35m. 

+$40M easy

[Shawn Robbins]

 

Re: Mario -- Honestly if there are *any* sales yet, that may point to being a very good thing because they weren't supposed to be on sale at all yet. But let's see what happens. This doesn't necessarily need a big rush when the announcement and trailer go out considering the movie is four weeks away and will play to a big casual audience for it to reach the more bullish numbers floating around.

 

That said, I understand why there is pressure here considering the IP and poor animation results outside Minions and PIB2 since 2020. I have a feeling this will turn the tide in a big way, though.

[Tinalera]

Shazam 2

Thurs Mar 16 and Fri Mar 17 (T-8)

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Nova sc	Thurs	4	17	31	4389	4420	0.0070
	Fri	4	16	23	4193	4216	0.0054
NB	Thurs	4	8	21	2170	2191	0.0095
	Fri	4	9	1	2505	2506	0.0003
NFLD
	Thurs	1	6	14	1365	1379	0.0101
	Fri	1	4	4	1379	1383	0.0028

 

 

Canada wide count

 

Vancouve	Thurs	3	18	43	3674	3717	0.0115
Calgary	Thurs	3	15	20	3360	3380	0.0059
Toronto	Thurs	4	18	98	4162	4260	0.0230
quebec	Thurs	3	15	60	3725	3785	0.0158
Nova sc	Thurs	4	17	31	4389	4420	0.0070
NB	Thurs	4	8	21	2170	2191	0.0095
NFLD	Thurs	1	6	14	1365	1379	0.0101
total		22	97	287	22845	23132	0.0124
Vancouve	Fri	3	22	61	4945	5006	0.0121
Calgary	Fri	3	18	14	4400	4414	0.0031
Toronto	Fri	3	16	71	4508	4579	0.0155
Quebec	Fri	3	18	45	4841	4886	0.0092
NS	Fri	4	16	23	4193	4216	0.0054
NB	Fri	4	9	1	2505	2506	0.0003
NFLD	Fri	1	4	4	1379	1383	0.0028
Total		21	103	219	26771	26990	0.0081

 

 

Yea those numbers are what they are.

[Tinalera]

John Wick 4 

Thurs Mar 23 Fri Mar 24 (t-15)

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland Canada

 

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	8	49	2297	2346	0.0208
	Fri	4	11	59	3051	3110	0.0189
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	7	29	1827	1856	0.0156
	Fri	3	8	6	1431	1437	0.0041
NFLD	Thurs	1	3	50	640	690	0.0781
	Fri	1	5	16	904	926	0.0172

[el sid]

Scream VI, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 162 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 147 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 68 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 132 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 335 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.067 (16 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.932.

Up pretty modest 14% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Scream (3.5M from previews) had 1.581 sold tickets in 7 theaters = 4.25M from previews for Scream 6.
M3gan (2.3M) had 782,
Smile (2M) had 467,
HK (4.85M) had 1.314
and HE (5.4M) had 1.557 sold tickets = 6.7M.

What to do? Except for Scream all comps point to a preview number far above 5M so this is my worst case number.
 

Scream VI, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 402 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 165 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 83 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 108 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 184 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 601 (16 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.562.

Up 22.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Scream (30M OW) had 1.409 sold tickets = 33.3M (plus better reviews),
M3gan (30.4M) had 752,
Smile (22.6M) had 549,
HK (49.4M) had 1.575 = 48.8M
and HE (40.1M) had 1.561 sold tickets = 40.1M.
 

The same „problem“ as on Thursday. The Scream comp would suggest 35M but all other comps look way better. And why should it have lower walk-ups with a well received predecessor than e.g. Halloween Kills?
So I say 40M OW. But keep in mind that the presales in California are way better than elsewhere.

 

PS: Probably I can't count next week but will be back for John Wick.

Edited March 9, 2023 by el sid