The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Lighthouse]

5 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Even MCU movies release embargo 3 days out from release, why is Shazam 2 embargo dropping only 1 day out?

 

[Krissykins]

I know I’ve said this already, but Scream VI will be more presale heavy and frontloaded than normal horror films. 
 

The franchise always has been, it’s also a Part 6, a 27 year old franchise, and most importantly, there’s a no-spoiler whodunnit element too. 
 

$5m might be enough for $35m and therefore the franchise record. 
 

93% on RT verified with 250 ratings. And 80% on the critic RT scale. 

[Borja9198]

Early estimates:

 

~$5,8M Previews (~$4,6M thursday & ~$1,2M event)

 

+$40M lock, maybe $45M

[screambaby]

19 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I know I’ve said this already, but Scream VI will be more presale heavy and frontloaded than normal horror films. 
 

The franchise always has been, it’s also a Part 6, a 27 year old franchise, and most importantly, there’s a no-spoiler whodunnit element too. 
 

$5m might be enough for $35m and therefore the franchise record. 
 

93% on RT verified with 250 ratings. And 80% on the critic RT scale. 

Maybe I'm crazy but if halloween ends can pull 41 million off a5.4 with lousy word of mouth scream 6 is doing at least that.

Also that critic score should be close to getting certified fresh

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by screambaby

[Porthos]

On 3/2/2023 at 11:40 PM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-77 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23148	23629	481	2.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

24

 

BREAKDOWN

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-80:	13
T-79:	3
T-78:	4
T-77:	4

 

 

0.94170x F9 (2020) at T-77 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:       76/8031  [0.95% sold]
Matinee:    11/2646  [0.42% | 2.29% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Next update Thursday unless situation warrants otherwise.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-70 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	24998	25514	516	2.02%

 

Total Showings Since Last Thursday	9
Total Seats Since Last Thursday	1885
Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday	35

 

BREAKDOWN

Spoiler

 

T-76:	15
T-75:	9
T-74:	10
T-73:	-4
T-72:	-3
T-71:	6
T-70:	2

 

 

0.96774x F9 (2020) at T-74 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

Regal:       77/8037  [0.96% sold]
Matinee:    11/2648  [0.42% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]

 

NB:  F9 tickets stopped at T-73 due to theaters shutting down because of the COVID pandemic (or at least, that's the last day I recorded sales).  So we're truly flying blind until around T-42 or so when the first day of JWD's sales comes online.

 

Next update will be next Thursday.

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	88	12243	13330	1087	8.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.64		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	9.47%		5.52m
JWD	44.82		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		4456	24.39%		8.07m
BA	127.43		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	24.19%		9.68m
A2	40.33		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	12.10%		6.86m
Scream 6	175.32		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     231/3784  [6.10% sold]
Matinee:    41/1253  [3.27% | 3.77% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	88	12191	13342	1151	8.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.38		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	10.03%		5.47m
JWD	44.35		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		4456	25.83%		7.98m
BA	126.21		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	25.61%		9.59m
A2	41.12		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	12.81%		6.99m
Scream 6	175.46		36	656		0/70	7662/8318	7.89%		3134	36.73%		????

 

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     247/3784  [6.53% sold]
Matinee:    45/1253  [3.59% | 3.91% of all tickets sold]

Edited March 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Sckathian]

19 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Maybe I'm crazy but if halloween ends can pull 41 million off a5.4 with lousy word of mouth scream 6 is doing at least that.

Also that critic score should be close to getting certified fresh

 

Halloween franchise is more a straight up horror. It's going to do strongly with walk ups. Scream will too but as a franchise it's never been total horror. It'll be more front loaded due to its meta and fans but less legs as a result toom

[OceanBlvd]

On 3/10/2023 at 1:47 AM, GOGODanca said:

cause its sonic on steroids in terms of popularity with plenty of adults who play/played the game growing up and you'd expect a fan rush from them 

I’ve never seen or heard or read about an adult hardcore Mario fan in my life lol (I’m sure there are but it’s not prevalent). There are definitely hardcore Nintendo fans tho but that doesn’t mean they stan Mario lol. It’s that not type of franchise. It’s super causal. It’s very popular and everyone knows who Mario is, but it is not a thirst fan fare type of series. Never have been and never will be because Nintendo is not interested in that for Mario. It’s always been a broad appeal causal IP. They have Zelda which is more acclaimed and far more focused. Zelda as a franchise has a way more hardcore fandom than Mario in part due to that. There’s no weird off beat party filler Zelda games or sports games. A Zelda movie would definitely have a huge fan rush.

 

Btw, Sonic has always been marketed as the edgier more cool/adult mascot. 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[screambaby]

9 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

Halloween franchise is more a straight up horror. It's going to do strongly with walk ups. Scream will too but as a franchise it's never been total horror. It'll be more front loaded due to its meta and fans but less legs as a result toom

Scream 5's legs were fine. Kills and ends weren't. If  not for omicron shutting down Canada Scream 5 would she done better then its mlk opening  weekend total too.

Jmo

Edited March 10, 2023 by screambaby

[M37]

On 3/4/2023 at 10:02 AM, M37 said:

Scream VI sales have been a bit sluggish since that opening burst. Based on growth rate, still think Black Adam is the best comp, and as of now would suggest sales increase by ~225% from T-7 to T-0, for $5.5-$6.0M in previews, but being horror there is certainly room for a stronger late kick and higher total

On 3/6/2023 at 8:24 AM, M37 said:

Kinda disappointed with the sales for Scream IV over the weekend, especially Sunday, as no tracked market manged to reach +30% growth from T-7, and that was with Creed III reigniting the box office and potentially helping to drive sales with audience overlap. For reference, Black Adam was ~35% for this window, and now its fallen back into more of the Dune/JWD range. Again, being a horror film, there is still room for a strong finishing kick, just running out of time to see it manifest

 

Going to drop the lower bound to $5M, and I'm not 100% convinced that even holds, though 3D shows/ATP might be enough to get it there. Maybe we get more of the standard ~10x IM that pretty much every non-CBM title seems to be getting these days, rather than the 8.5x (with holiday!) of Scream with a COVID cloud still lingering, but the ceiling is definitely lowering

 

Growth from T-7 to T-0

Sacto = +211%

Philly = +203%

Jax/Pho/Ral = +177% (dragged down by Pho, Ral & Jax were ~200%)

 

Continued to lag behind Black Adam in final days, but paced just ahead of Dune. Typically, the pace of Thursday sales over final week is correlated with the Thur/Fri ratio (the more pre-sale heavy Thursday is, the more Thursday heavy OD).

Black Adam had a 3.5x OD/Thur (8.8x IM), while Dune had a 3.43x (8.0x IM). Scream VI should in or be just below that range, so a ~$5.5M preview should enough for $18-$19M OD and low $40M weekend

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by M37

[Eric the Minion]

13 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	355	17155	2.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp - T-8

0.924x of The Suicide Squad (3.79M)

0.252x of Shang-Chi (2.22M)

0.178x of Eternals (1.69M)

0.526x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.37M)

0.416x of Morbius (2.37M)

0.489x of Sonic 2 (3.06M)

0.447x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.68M)

0.166x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3M)

0.384x of Black Adam (2.92M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	373	17155	2.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Comp - T-7

0.899x of The Suicide Squad (3.68M)

0.242x of Shang-Chi (2.13M)

0.178x of Eternals (1.69M)

0.520x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.34M)

0.418x of Morbius (2.38M)

0.465x of Sonic 2 (2.91M)

0.419x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.51M)

0.167x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3M)

0.361x of Black Adam (2.75M)

[Eric the Minion]

13 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	670	13153	5.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

 

Comp - T-15

2.691x of The Suicide Squad (11.03M)

1.214x of Venom 2 (14.08M)

1.259x of No Time to Die (7.93M)

1.163x of Dune (5.93M)

3.059x of Uncharted (11.32M)

1.871x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (11.23M)

0.541x of Top Gun 2 (10.42M)

0.418x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.53M)

0.374x of Avatar 2 (6.36M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	709	13153	5.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp - T-14

2.696x of The Suicide Squad (11.05M)

1.120x of Venom 2 (12.99M)

1.255x of No Time to Die (7.91M)

1.111x of Dune (5.67M)

2.906x of Uncharted (10.75M)

1.611x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (9.67M)

0.534x of Top Gun 2 (10.28M)

0.423x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.61M)

0.383x of Avatar 2 (6.51M)

[Eric the Minion]

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	363	30968	1.17%

 

Comp - T-27

0.367x of Sing 2 (3.57M)

 

Little early to get Sonic or Minions onto here, and Sing is a little wonky because of its Early Access shows. Still, it does feel like OD is pretty soft, which is kind of understandable? This feels like a Shrek 2 situation where there's not a lot of people going day 1, but will be there when Friday hits. Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass? Who knows? I tracked six movies today! I'm going to sleep soon!

[Eric the Minion]

On 3/3/2023 at 4:55 AM, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-77 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	286	17734	1.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-70 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	302	17734	1.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

[Eric the Minion]

2 hours ago, OceanBlvd said:

I’ve never seen or heard or read about an adult hardcore Mario fan in my life lol (I’m sure there are but it’s not prevalent). There are definitely adult Nintendo fans tho but that doesn’t mean they stan Mario hardcore lol.

[ThomasNicole]

3 hours ago, Sckathian said:

Halloween franchise is more a straight up horror. It's going to do strongly with walk ups. Scream will too but as a franchise it's never been total horror. It'll be more front loaded due to its meta and fans but less legs as a result toom

Halloween Ends had a 7.5x multi which is frontloaded, i don't see much reason to expect something worse than that for Scream.

 

The last Scream was also kinda frontloaded for the same reasons and still had 8.7x (there was a holiday so probably ~8x without that). This one should do 7 - 7.5x. 

 

41-43M seems like the realistic projection if 5.8M previews hold.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

3 hours ago, OceanBlvd said:

I’ve never seen or heard or read about an adult hardcore Mario fan in my life lol (I’m sure there are but it’s not prevalent). There are definitely adult Nintendo fans tho but that doesn’t mean they stan Mario hardcore lol. It’s that not type of franchise. It’s super causal.

 

 

Oh if you want to test that out, go to Twitter and write that the new Paper Mario games are much better than the old ones. Watch how absolutely normal the adult fans will react.

[cookie]

Think we're going to see a lot more traffic for Mario over Easter weekend as opposed to Wednesday/Thursday.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	363	30968	1.17%

 

Comp - T-27

0.367x of Sing 2 (3.57M)

 

Little early to get Sonic or Minions onto here, and Sing is a little wonky because of its Early Access shows. Still, it does feel like OD is pretty soft, which is kind of understandable? This feels like a Shrek 2 situation where there's not a lot of people going day 1, but will be there when Friday hits. Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass? Who knows? I tracked six movies today! I'm going to sleep soon!

Yeah that comp is doing nothing for 350+ tix sold for an animation film T-27 days. I guess you could have used something like Black Adam first day of sales, it may still be higher.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/3/2023 at 8:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Creed III	3,366	92,873		79,175		13,698	4,696	0
Ant-Man 3	3,238	59,709	-46.86%	54,037	284.50	5,672	18	4,603
Cocaine Bear	3,139	47,283	-15.36%	47,035	364.06	248	0	0
Jesus Revolution	2,346	31,690	-10.51%	31,616	400.54	74	0	0
Operation Fortune	2,116	28,946		28,891		55	0	0
Demon Slayer	1,703	22,604		22,543		61	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,248	18,813	-17.15%	18,784	181.41	29	0	12
Avatar 2	1,986	17,171	-10.19%	4,249	254.20	12,922	3	12,919
80 for Brady	1,316	10,393	-49.96%	10,379	91.55	14	0	0
Magic Mike 3	1,444	9,601	-61.73%	9,601	113.86	0	0	0
A Man Called Otto	1,203	7,132	15.20%	7,112	137.55	20	0	0
Knock at the Cabin	1,074	6,252	-64.29%	6,243	106.85	9	0	0
Missing	540	3,842	-36.18%	3,842	169.24	0	0	0
Children of the Corn	572	3,783		3,783		0	0	0
Emily	520	2,552	-57.07%	2,546	66.53	6	0	0
M3GAN	393	2,496	-45.72%	2,496	124.45	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 3/3 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Creed III - 92,873 (3,366 TC)

 - Bullet Train - 94,719 (3,499)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

 - Halloween Kills - 92,661 (3,143)

Demon Slayer - 22,604 (1,703 TC)

 - MHA - 23,963 (1,504)

 - Slime - 16,344 (1,422)

 - Infinity Pool - 21,605 (1,670)

Other anime for context

 - DBZ - 52,371 (2,856)

 - One Piece - 52,470 (2,227)

 - JJK - 41,623 (2,228)

Operation Fortune - 28,946 (2,116 TC)

 - King's Man - 29,915 (2,800)

 - Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409)

 - Devotion - 30,341 (2,500)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548 TC)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 47,052 (2,460)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

65 - 26,446 (1,843 TC)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878)

Champions - 19,923 (1,771 TC)

 - House of Gucci - 19,223 (1,835)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 19,139 (1,224)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346 TC)

 - Morbius - 10,885 (2,409)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381)

 - FB3 - 11,617 (2,405)

 

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

John Wick 4 - 7,973 (1,938 TC)

 - NTTD - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Nope - 8,197 (2,086)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 

T-11 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 13,819 (2,248 TC)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Scream VI	3,190	88,867		66,414		22,453	0	15,855
Creed III	3,349	62,785	-25.32%	57,109	628.49	5,676	4,135	0
65	2,884	46,554		45,677		877	0	0
Cocaine Bear	2,840	35,506	-24.91%	35,421	235.59	85	0	0
Champions	2,759	34,419		34,363		56	0	0
Ant-Man 3	2,684	31,879	-46.61%	30,954	214.54	925	6	798
Jesus Revolution	2,279	25,004	-21.10%	24,934	268.46	70	0	0
Operation Fortune	2,077	17,110	-33.37%	17,077	108.49	33	0	0
Demon Slayer	1,658	16,474	-27.12%	16,466	447.61	8	0	0
Avatar 2	1,443	10,526	-38.70%	1,861	212.46	8,665	0	8,665
Puss in Boots 2	1,553	10,423	-44.60%	10,392	146.05	31	0	11
Southern Gospel	597	6,277		6,277		0	0	0
80 for Brady	307	2,091	-79.88%	2,085	85.25	6	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 3/10 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 88,867 (3,190 TC)

 - Creed III - 92,873 (3,366)

 - Scream V - 85,504 (3,326)

 - Halloween Kills - 92,661 (3,143)

 - Uncharted - 85,247 (3,358)

65 - 46,554 (2,884 TC)

 - Missing - 44,142 (2,597)

 - Babylon - 44,741 (3,029)

 - Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

Champions - 34,419 (2,759 TC)

 - Three Thousand Years of Longing - 32,529 (2,230)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 34,530 (1,363)

 - Blacklight - 33,722 (2,482)

Southern Gospel - 6,277 (597 TC)

 - Emily - 6,596 (536)

 - Titane - 6,186 (521)

 - The Old Way - 6,172 (503)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 64,772 (2,727 TC)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Ghostbusters - 63,866 (2,826)

 - FB3 - 64,819 (2,899)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

John Wick 4 - 9,400 (2,382 TC)

 - NTTD - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Dungeons & Dragons 3/19 EA - 82 (82 TC)

Dungeons & Dragons 3/26 EA - 299 (299 TC)

Dungeons & Dragons 3/29 EA - 235 (229 TC)

Dungeons & Dragons - 4,074 (959 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - 80 for Brady - 3,779 (1,353)

 - FB3 - 3,764 (573)

 

T-4 Week OD Showtimes Comps

Mario (midnight shows) - 83 (34 TC)

Super Mario Bros (OD) - 17,557 (1,686 TC)

 - Puss in Boots (OD) - 9,182 (1,961)

 

T-11 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 13,819 (2,248 TC)