The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Eric Batson said:

100% chance of 70M for opening weekend. However, within the DC/MCU category on The Quorum, the lowest opener in my data was Black Adam with 67M. Morbius is in the "Known IP" section for some reason. And with Shazam tracking in the same 5.6 range as Eternals/Shang-Chi, that does mean, using that data alone, that it has a 100% chance of 70M because of those two movies...but there's only 10 movies in that pool altogether. It's kinda hard to predict anything when you only have 10 movies.

Are you putting % chance of xyz opening or Quorum does

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

These regional comps are very low, though MTC 1 and MiniTC 1 seems better than that. Its weird how there is so much diff.

 

The thing is, with so few ticket sales it doesn't take much to have larger swings between comps.  If one market has 20 more (or fewer for that matter) tickets than a baseline, that'll show up much more when the base is so small.

 

(also DC tends to do worse in Sacto than Marvel — which is why I'm glad I have a very recent DC comp in Black Adam)

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 hours ago, Mulder said:

GvK didn't make that much money and left like no impact.

I mean..... Look at when it was released and how.

 

The fact that it made ANY Money was a W for industry.

 

And it's not lightening to strike when Monsterverse is 3/4 in terms of success. Only misfire was KOTM. 

[keysersoze123]

Shazam is a huge disappointment and I feel warner bros engineered it to fail with their strategy. Despite no PLF I feel releasing it during christmas might have helped this movie better I feel. 

 

I will update numbers before end of the night but it looks like hitting targets I set 2 days ago. MTC1 is looking at 4m+ based on comps but obviously that is just 1 comp however big the comp is. Also being a small movie and not available in streaming, it should do better with walkups than say Suicide Squad as its not a R rated movie. We will figure out tomorrow and friday walkups on where it ends up. But to me its looking better than nadir it looked until yesterday. I guess reviews are still a catalyst despite it not being in the same ballpark as 1st movie. 69% is neither horrible nor great but that Top Critics number is BAAAD. Let us see how audience vote goes as well. 

[filmlover]

A Good Person is set to open at a number of theaters near me on the 24th, looks like they abandoned their original limited on the 24th/wide on the 31st plan. It's destined to flop hard though, marketing and buzz is nonexistent.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Eric Prime]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are you putting % chance of xyz opening or Quorum does

Me. I’m doing that. Not Quorum.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

John Wick 4 MTC1 previews(T -9) - 41303/430451 750266.97 2152 shows

 

Terrific numbers and great pace considering there is time to release. It should have good final week push towards to great previews/OW. I think 70M OW is in play here. 

John Wick 4 MTC1

Previews - 44528/448299 806440.52 2251 shows

Friday - 35966/622733 656966.18 3051 shows

 

Definitely amping up at this point. Let us see how it goes in its final week. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews - 33341/545143 597010.99 2821 shows

MTC1 Friday - 25214/865093 437982.66 4501 shows

MTC2 previews - 15494/423846 207591.13 2689 shows

 

Its over indexing at MTC1 big time. Pace increased about 50% from terrible pace yesterday. That is not enough for sure but there was no catalyst today. This basically will do whatever with walkups.  

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews(T-1) - 40722/550817 716524.32 2859 shows

 

I will update MTC2 tomorrow and friday at MTC1. I think its exactly where I predicted it would be 2 days ago. Now let us see where it ends up tomorrow. That said there is no doubt reviews today did amp up the sales. 

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews(T-1) - 40722/550817 716524.32 2859 shows

 

I will update MTC2 tomorrow and friday at MTC1. I think its exactly where I predicted it would be 2 days ago. Now let us see where it ends up tomorrow. That said there is no doubt reviews today did amp up the sales. 

decent bump after a disaster TUE. can see it it 70K+ now.

[Porthos]

On 3/15/2023 at 12:25 AM, Porthos said:

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	159	21916	22725	809	3.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	2238
Total Seats Sold Today	111

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	76.18		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		2352	34.40%		3.12m
LTBC	21.54		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		7712	10.49%		2.50m
ET	20.57		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	12.62%		1.95m
GBA	53.58		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	26.66%		2.41m
Morbius	42.47		328	1905		0/181	22143/24048	7.92%		3477	23.27%		2.42m
Sonic 2	38.60		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	20.48%		2.41m
Minions 2	29.59		829	2734		0/214	27446/30180	9.06%		6591	12.27%		3.18m
Nope	52.23		333	1549		0/145	18685/20234	7.66%		3822	21.17%		3.34m
BA	31.49		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	18.00%		2.39m
AM3	10.54		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	7.72%		1.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	22098	23167	1069	4.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	442
Total Seats Sold Today	260

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	79.60		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		2352	45.45%		3.26m
LTBC	20.85		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		7712	13.86%		2.42m
ET	22.88		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	16.68%		2.17m
GBA	51.39		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	35.23%		2.31m
Morbius	43.07		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	30.74%		2.45m
Sonic 2	37.08		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	27.06%		2.32m
Nope	69.01		333	1549		0/145	18685/20234	7.66%		3822	27.97%		4.42m
BA	33.89		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	23.79%		2.58m
AM3	12.35		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	10.21%		2.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

====

 

Oooof.

 

...

 

At least the direct CBM comps went over 2m?  Yay?

[Porthos]

On 3/15/2023 at 12:27 AM, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	109	13836	15299	1463	9.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1508
Total Seats Sold Today	71

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	140.94		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	39.15%		8.74m
TGM	28.11		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	12.75%		5.41m
JWD	43.28		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		4456	32.83%		7.79m
BA	122.73		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	32.55%		9.33m
A2	39.96		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	16.28%		6.79m
Scream 6	172.12		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	46.68%		9.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     308/3784  [8.14% sold]
Matinee:    62/1253  [4.95% | 4.24% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	109	13716	15299	1583	10.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

120

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	135.07		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	42.36%		8.37m
TGM	28.42		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	13.80%		5.47m
JWD	44.33		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		4456	35.53%		7.98m
BA	124.25		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	35.22%		9.44m
A2	40.36		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	17.62%		6.86m
Scream 6	177.47		42	892		0/77	8855/9747	9.15%		3134	50.51%		10.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     340/3784  [8.99% sold]
Matinee:    67/1253  [5.35% | 4.23% of all tickets sold]

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Batson said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	913	13379	6.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp - T-9

2.725x of The Suicide Squad (11.17M)

1.026x of Venom 2 (11.9M)

1.107x of No Time to Die (6.97M)

1.103x of Dune (5.62M)

2.936x of Uncharted (10.86M)

1.361x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.16M)

0.507x of Top Gun 2 (9.77M)

0.453x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.15M)

3.181x of Bullet Train (14.63M)
0.392x of Avatar 2 (6.67M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	991	13379	7.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp - T-8

2.581x of The Suicide Squad (10.58M)

1.030x of Venom 2 (11.95M)

1.053x of No Time to Die (6.63M)

1.150x of Dune (5.86M)

2.967x of Uncharted (10.98M)

1.248x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.49M)

0.516x of Top Gun 2 (9.94M)

0.465x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.37M)

3.394x of Bullet Train (15.61M)

0.398x of Avatar 2 (6.77M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Batson said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1088	31960	3.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp - T-22

0.743x of Sing 2 (7.23M)

3.817x of Sonic 2 (23.86M)

23.149x of Minions 2 (248.85M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1135	31960	3.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp - T-21

0.769x of Sing 2 (7.49M)

3.592x of Sonic 2 (22.45M)

24.149x of Minions 2 (259.6M)

[Brainbug]

45 minutes ago, Eric Batson said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1135	31960	3.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

24.149x of Minions 2 (259.6M)

 

 

Endgame stands no chance. Its all over now.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews(T-1) - 40722/550817 716524.32 2859 shows

 

I will update MTC2 tomorrow and friday at MTC1. I think its exactly where I predicted it would be 2 days ago. Now let us see where it ends up tomorrow. That said there is no doubt reviews today did amp up the sales. 

Shazam 2

MTC1 Friday - 32091/877620 547661.97 4581 shows

MTC2 previews - 22545/433310 298174.05 2807 shows

 

I would say pretty good day overall after disastrous presales until yesterday. 

 

On 3/14/2023 at 9:56 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 Friday - 25214/865093 437982.66 4501 shows

MTC2 previews - 15494/423846 207591.13 2689 shows

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 Friday - 32091/877620 547661.97 4581 shows

MTC2 previews - 22545/433310 298174.05 2807 shows

 

I would say pretty good day overall after disastrous presales until yesterday. 

 

 

It's going to end up opening with a mediocre $30M isn't it? The worst outcome with no hilarious meltdowns.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Shazam 2 Marcus:

 

Previews:

Shows: 514

Seats Sold: 2836/79122 (+513)

 

0.81x Bullet Train true Th (2.84 million)

0.315x Black Adam (estimated) (2.39 million)

 

 

Friday:

Shows: 887

Seats Sold: 4362/134903 (+703)

 

0.866x Bullet Train (7.1 million)

 

[Hiccup23]

On 3/13/2023 at 9:10 PM, Hiccup23 said:

Milwaukee/Madison Area Previews for Shazam! Fury of the Gods

 

Yall...rotten

 

	Sold	Seats	Percent Sold	Showings
Shazam! Fury of the Gods	158	10,487	1.51%	55

Not a great increase. 

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings
Shazam! Fury of the Gods	298	11,968	2.5%	71

[Mojoguy]

15 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It's going to end up opening with a mediocre $30M isn't it? The worst outcome with no hilarious meltdowns.

I consider $30m OW to be a disaster. There will be plenty of meltdowns.