The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[DAJK]

If this thing really does 25M on Wednesday I don’t see how it isn’t just massive throughout the weekend.

 

25

15

40

50

35

18

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Skim Beeble said:

Does anyone know if Universal is gonna report previews from midnight showings tonight or are the numbers gonna be too low to report

I think they will just roll them into OD. From the tracking here those shows are basically noise, not worth reporting.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If this thing really does 25M on Wednesday I don’t see how it isn’t just massive throughout the weekend.

 

25

15

40

50

35

18

 

Easter Saturday night / Sunday morning can be tough on some movies, so I might lower Sat and Sun a touch...Friday may be the highest day...

[SchumacherFTW]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Easter Saturday night / Sunday morning can be tough on some movies, so I might lower Sat and Sun a touch...Friday may be the highest day...

I'd say for sure it'll be the biggest day of the weekend, good old Good Friday. 

[Eric the Marxist]

Air Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	639	11634	5.49%

 

Comp - Monday Before Release

14.860x of The Last Duel (5.2M)

5.972x of Ambulance (4.18M)

2.719x of Unbearable Weight (2.27M)

0.994x of Elvis (3.48M)

0.663x of Bullet Train (3.05M)

3.260x of Amsterdam (1.79M)

 

Wednesday openers, specifically ones with no previews, is always tricky. But I mean the 3-5M from the higher end comps would be very much good for a movie like this. So let's be optimistic and say it's this.

[Eric the Marxist]

On 4/3/2023 at 1:49 AM, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	243	5273	45004	11.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 959

 

Comp - T-3

2.196x of Sing 2 (21.38M)

3.780x of Sonic 2 (23.62M)

8.112x of Lightyear (42.18M)

7.929x of Minions 2 (85.24M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	6899	45704	15.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,626

 

Comp - T-2

2.631x of Sing 2 (25.61M)

3.889x of Sonic 2 (24.31M)

8.634x of Lightyear (44.9M)

7.134x of Minions 2 (76.69M)

[Starrow5722]

1 minute ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	6899	45704	15.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,626

 

Comp - T-2

2.631x of Sing 2 (25.61M)

3.889x of Sonic 2 (24.31M)

8.634x of Lightyear (44.9M)

7.134x of Minions 2 (76.69M)

Fucking insanity.....

[Eric the Marxist]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2014	39919	5.05%

 

Comp - T-31

0.419x of Black Panther 2 (11.75M)

1.181x of Ant-Man 3 (20.67M)

 

Funny enough, with all the doom and gloom, Philly actually beat Quantumania. Go figure. Still not...you know, good, but we're in a new age. Just gonna have to deal with it.

 

(for the record, I'm not doing any "First Day" comp stuff, because tackling three movies with a huge number of showings drained me last night, I also have to set up the Mario weekend thread later, and I just don't have infinite time on my hands. Please don't ask for my mental health's sake)

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOLUME 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

*First 12 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	3278	31096	10.5%

 

A couple of showings are almost sold out. Not as bad as I originally thought. 

 

Comps previews:

D&D (2.638x) $10.8M OD

JOHN WICK (0.911x) $8.1M OD

 

It's way too early to make any real predictions. I would say by 24 hours it should have 3500 tickets sold, so on par with John Wick T-0

 

A reason why sales may be slower is because previous MCU titles have had trailers debut alongside the launch of tickets, but GOTG did not follow this trend

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

*First 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
206	3752	31248	12.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   12 HOUR CHECK

473

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE 12 HOUR CHECK

1

*Note 

Mario will probably have 9k tickets sold by T-0 so lets see if GOTG can match that by T-7

 

Not bad, Not great. These numbers are disappointing if you were expecting Wakanda Forever numbers (lol me  )

 

I would say around Thor 4 ($144M) is a realistic target as of rn

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

Air MTC1 Wednesday - 13932/243136 189119.06 2054 shows

 

This could do quite well tomorrow with walkups. Thinking 3m OD and then WOM helping it do well over the weekend. Now thinking this can do mid/high teens over 5 days and then play well through out the month. may be this has 50m+ domestic potential.  

[ThomasNicole]

Reviews for Mario are extremelly average and even bad in some outlets [as expected tbh], let´s hope it won´t have a negative impact 

[JWR]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reviews for Mario are extremelly average and even bad in some outlets [as expected tbh], let´s hope it won´t have a negative impact 

 

It won't. Not by much, at least.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reviews for Mario are extremelly average and even bad in some outlets [as expected tbh], let´s hope it won´t have a negative impact 

 

I think Illumination is one of the few companies whose films are just beyond bad reviews. They know how to bring people out regardless of reception.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

It won't. Not by much, at least.

The OW will be fine, i worry about the legs tho, with such a big opening this is a strong contender for +400M DOM 

 

Let´s hope the audiences will like because the reviews are very bad, 48 on MC now 

 

Illumination movies usually have good audience reception tho even with bad reviews so there´s hope

[GOGODanca]

Families don't care about reviews and mario super fans definitely don't care, as long as audience score is good then this will print money 

[JWR]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The OW will be fine, i worry about the legs tho, with such a big opening this is a strong contender for +400M DOM 

 

Let´s hope the audiences will like because the reviews are very bad, 48 on MC now 

 

Illumination movies usually have good audience reception tho even with bad reviews so there´s hope

 

It'll still do well. It just might not be the mega juggernaut some of us here thought it would be. "Worst" case scenario, it makes somewhere in between $600-900M WW.

[GOGODanca]

There's nothing for small kids until like Elementals iirc, its gonna make bank

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

There's nothing for small kids until like Elementals iirc, its gonna make bank

Unless it goes to streaming after like 45 days