The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/2/2023 at 5:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-3 Wednesday(194 showings): 9315(+1198)/31459

 

T-4 Thursday(196 showings): 5970(+814)/31240

 

T-5 Friday(210 showings): 11316(+1415)/32723

 

T-6 Saturday(217 showings): 10497(+1124)/33770

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-2 Wednesday(332 showings): 11012(+1697)/45758

 

T-3 Thursday(348 showings): 7424(+1454)/46800

0.858 JW Dominion Thurs+Fri (51.15M)*

 

T-4 Friday(352 showings): 13126(+1810)/48877

1.41x JW Dominion T-4 (58.81M)

 

T-5 Saturday(380 showings): 11785(+1288)/52004

1.28x JW Dominion T-5 (60.24M)

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

[Inceptionzq]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

355

4344

8.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

214

3222

6.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 11 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1079	N/A	34518	3.13%	14	224

 

AMCs sold	878
Cinemarks sold	83
Regals sold	50
Harkins sold	68

 

0.786x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (13.76M)

0.613x Black Panther 2 first 11.5 hours (17.18M)

0.424x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (12.30M)

[Inceptionzq]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Megaplex

 

T-31 Thursday(107 showings): 917/30240

0.894x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (15.64M)

0.449x Thor L&T fist 8.5 hours (13.02M)

 

T-32 Friday(168 showings): 416/48100

1.14x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (33.06M)

0.489x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (19.82M)

 

T-33 Saturday(172 showings): 299/48306

0.877x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (29.73M)

0.854x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (35.97M)

 

T-34 Sunday(169 showings): 79/47679

1.34x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (33.51M)

0.868x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (28.21M)

[excel1]

so is air finna break out or nah

[Inceptionzq]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-31 Thursday(229 showings): 4981/33618 ATP: $15.85

1.38x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (24.19M)

0.778x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (21.80M)

0.693x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (20.09M)

 

T-32 Friday(337 showings): 2938/50022 ATP: $15.87

1.60x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (46.37M)

0.598x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (33.69M)

0.638x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (25.85M)

 

T-33 Saturday(349 showings): 3276/51794 ATP: $15.02

2.13x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (72.26M)

0.638x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (35.80M)

0.848x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (35.71M)

 

T-34 Sunday(323 showings): 1285/47784 ATP: $14.57

2.95x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (76.13M)

0.994x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (40.67M)

0.735x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (23.89M)

[Fanboy]

150M+ 5-Day is looking more and more likely for Mario. Seems like a meh start for Guardians, an opening under VOL 2. would be disappointing. 

[Landon1195]

Honestly I think maybe one reason why presales are underperforming is because with a lot of the recent Marvel films being underwhelming, it's possible people are now less willing to get their tickets super early for MCU films and are now waiting for the reviews to see if it's worth it.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Landon1195

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC2

Midnight - 4514/21353 66009.00 150 shows

OD - 126224/897055 1469311.21126224/897055 1469311.21 5598 shows

 

Excellent numbers for sure. 

 

 

On 4/2/2023 at 9:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 5064/33852 112218.02 169 shows

OD - 148984/1103464 2351476.46 6085 shows +24040

 

That is a crazy increase. Not even sure how high it can go before the shows start. Thinking even 250K+ is possible !!! Can it do 35m OD?

 

Mario Previews

MTC1 - 6272/35512 136467.66 181 shows

MTC2 -  6116/28190 88695.50 200 shows

 

Wednesday

MTC1 - 189688/1214216 2955150.16 7098 shows +40704

MTC2 - 146982/913762 1697345.79 5735 shows // run started this morning

 

MTC1 wednesday increased more than what I thought. Another huge increase. Looking like ~270k PS end !!!

[Flamengo81]

Man... What is even the ceiling for this thing at this point?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

$200M 5-day incoming 

Nintendo's no doubt praying for a Fresh Tomato when the review embargo lifts later today. If it can secure that, then it has a legitimate shot at $1 billion.

Edited April 4, 2023 by BadOlCatSylvester

[Porthos]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	27676	29568	1892	6.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1892

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	28.03		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	8.96%		10.09m
L&T	45.47		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	11.15%		13.19m
Bats	65.67		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	16.09%		14.19m
BP2	58.14		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	11.26%		16.28m
AM3	93.71		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	18.06%		16.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE #1:  The Batman had two days of exclusive pre-sales for Early Access shows which resulted in 475 seats sold before regular showtimes went on sale.

PRE-SALE NOTE #2: AM3 tickets went on sale at 5pm locally on day 1 as opposed to 6am locally for GOTG3.

 

Regal:     301/11075  [2.72% sold]
Matinee:    50/3555  [1.41% | 2.64% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Is what it is.

[DisposedData]

So what is the Mario OD looking like? 30m+ ?

 

Also I'm shocked at the GoTG presales being so slow opening day. I saw people saying it was because no trailer released with the announcement? Maybe if the presales pick up tomorrow that can be proven to be true.

[Mulder]

If GoTG's presales don't pick up in the next few days it's absolutely from the hammering Marvel's taken over the past year. Though I expect GoTG 3 to get good reviews which should see it make up the difference towards the end.

 

EDIT: Anecdotal but at my theater it's absolutely the weakest first day I've seen from Marvel in a while.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Mulder

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If GoTG's presales don't pick up in the next few days it's absolutely from the hammering Marvel's taken over the past year. Though I expect GoTG 3 to get good reviews which should see it make up the difference towards the end.

 

FWIW, the one bright(-ish) spot would be a Black Widow comp.  I don't want to comp it for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because of lack of Ontario plus the rise in ATP since then.

 

But, locally, and without any sort of adjustments, GOTG3 sold 1.6428x more tickets than BW at the same sources of tracking (for most of BW's run, I had some theaters with unreliable seat maps, which were not used until they became reliable) on their respective Day 1's.

 

Without any sort of adjustment, that'd be 21.68m.  With perhaps reasonable adjustments that'd be closer to 24m.

 

On the other hand, when every other recent Marvel comp points in a different direction, or at least the ones that cleared 12m in previews, that reads more like a hope than a reasonable expectation.

 

Really, as I said, it is what it is.  Might pickup for a myriad of reasons.  Then again, it might not for an even longer list of reasons.

 

Either way, even if I were so inclined (and since it's STAR WARS apologist, not Marvel, I'm not), there's no real way of polishing these Day 1 sales.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Porthos

[Mulder]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, the one bright(-ish) spot would be a Black Widow comp.  I don't want to comp it for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because of lack of Ontario plus the rise in ATP since then.

 

But, locally, and without any sort of adjustments, GOTG3 sold 1.6428x more tickets than BW at the same sources of tracking (for most of BW's run, I had some theaters with unreliable seat maps, which were not used until they became reliable) on their respective Day 1's.

 

Without any sort of adjustment, that'd be 21.68m.  With perhaps reasonable adjustments that'd be closer to 24m.

 

On the other hand, when every other recent Marvel comp points in a different direction, or at least the ones that cleared 12m in previews, that reads more like a hope than a reasonable expectation.

 

Really, as I said, it is what it is.  Might pickup for a myriad of reasons.  Then again, it might not for an even longer list of reasons.

 

Either way, even if I were so inclined (and since it's STAR WARS apologist, not Marvel, I'm not), there's no real way of polishing these Day 1 sales.

If it doesn't pick up and GoTG 3, which should be an easy win for Marvel, goes under Volume 2's OW I expect there to be some major changes.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

26 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If it doesn't pick up and GoTG 3, which should be an easy win for Marvel, goes under Volume 2's OW I expect there to be some major changes.

I have a hunch D'Esposito's head will roll before the year ends.

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If it doesn't pick up and GoTG 3, which should be an easy win for Marvel, goes under Volume 2's OW I expect there to be some major changes.

 

Or changes that are already planned/underway are accelerated/firmed up. 

 

Of course, then there's legs, reviews, and even reception from the core audience.  If those are all good, even with a bad run, they can use GOTG3 and AM3 as a compare/contrast to what is working and what wasn't and just... I don't want to say "write off" GOTG3 (especially after one day of pre-sales but since this is a hypothetical not sure what phrasing would be better) as paying for the lukewarm reception of some of the recent MCU entries, but I do think they'll take into account reception and put things into proper context.

 

Or at least they should.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Porthos

[froztking]

is there any details on gog3 premier ?  

[romeross]

Is 12 million possible for "AIR" in OW?

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

If it doesn't pick up and GoTG 3, which should be an easy win for Marvel, goes under Volume 2's OW I expect there to be some major changes.

 

The decision to pull back on output is already a massive change that wss just put in. That's the biggest culprit on quality control. 

 

I can't see further scapegoating, especially if the goal is to get the Marvel machine running again to where it was before.

 

As for pre-sales, it's remarkable to see Marvels enthusiasm play out across the numbers in the past year. It's great to have the trackers provide such comprehensive data.

 

It gives such a quantifiable measure of how things have changed over the course of the last year.