The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

4 hours ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

I’m glad Mario is blowing up. Gives the forum something good to discuss. We don’t have to live through another Detective Pikachu.

 

I still think GOTG3 has a shot at $140M+ but yes the early numbers do unfortunately point in the wrong direction. 
 

First SW let me down; now the MCU aura has cracked like Caps shield against Thanos. 
 

 

There is an easy way out. Ditch Star Wars and Marvel and embrace Jurassic Park and Godzilla. There is no disappointment to find there and even if there is, it is to be ignored. Its a good place to live, i would know, ive been stuck there for quite some time.

[B D Joe]

I wonder if the Guardians are feeling overexposed. They were all over Infinity War, they were in Endgame, Thor: Love and Thunder, and the Holiday Special.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

Whatever ire these forecasts on GOTG3 are causing right now would have otherwise happened once Box Office Pro releases their long term forecast later this week. I'm expecting that will catch a lot of people's eyes that might hesitate to take message forums and Reddit posts too seriously.

In defense and support of the ticket counters here, some of the methodologies aren't dissimilar from what goes into the long range reports if a movie is on sale.

 

I definitely agree that we should be patient and not overreact to early sales just yet given the circumstances, but I can confirm early tracking ranges will be factoring in the sales rates so far alongside the broader expectations of how things might turn out. So less "doom and gloom" and more "let's be cautious, but it could still pop later than other Marvel movies".

[Shawn Robbins]

10 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

I wonder if the Guardians are feeling overexposed. They were all over Infinity War, they were in Endgame, Thor: Love and Thunder, and the Holiday Special.

This is a good point, IMHO. Infinity and Endgame basically served as Vol 2.5. I'm not sure audiences are going into Vol 3 like a traditional trilogy-capper without a major hook (ala Kang in Quantumania).

 

But reviews could change the narrative there if they end up strong.

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Shawn said:

In defense and support of the ticket counters here, some of the methodologies aren't dissimilar from what goes into the long range reports if a movie is on sale.

 

I definitely agree that we should be patient and not overreact to early sales just yet given the circumstances, but I can confirm early tracking ranges will be factoring in the sales rates so far alongside the broader expectations of how things might turn out. So less "doom and gloom" and more "let's be cautious, but it could still pop later than other Marvel movies".

 

I definitely am not throwing shade at the ticket trackers. Fantastic work all around. Honestly, for all the dialogue around MCU fatigue, they're the ones bringing some actual data to the conversation.

 

It's more that people on other sites reacting to this data that they don't have insight into the source. Some are clearly defensive about it. 

 

I think the more traditional forecasters will start reporting on this soon validating (or leveraging) the work here. It's going to bleed into more mainstream reporting soon. 

 

I think the potential decline of Marvel is such a hot topic that what we've seen the last few days in terms of reaction will continue for a while.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

42 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

I wonder if the Guardians are feeling overexposed. They were all over Infinity War, they were in Endgame, Thor: Love and Thunder, and the Holiday Special.

Idk if I agree with that but I can see some audiences feeling disappointed that the thread of Thor hanging with the Guardians got wrapped up quickly and were expecting more(though according to Gunn that was a late decision in post on Endgame so that’s not entirely on Guardians or even Thor).

Edited April 5, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Idk if I agree with that but I can see some audiences feeling disappointed that the thread of Thor hanging with the Guardians got wrapped up quickly and were expecting more(though according to Gunn that was a late decision in post on Endgame so that’s not entirely on Guardians or even Thor).

That is the problem with all these Easter Eggs. They are thrown around without even having a plan. Initial post credit/ last scenes meant something. Nick Fury in 1st Iron Man set up avengers. Post Credit in Thor set up Avengers movies. Past 2 years its just something random. Let us see if the post credit scene in NWH leads to something. 

[vafrow]

Tracking walkups today at my local theatre. Mario started the day with 320 tickets sold across four showtimes in two auditoriums. Mainly concentrated on the early showings naturally.

 

As of the closing of the early shows, ticket sales are up to 532. I'll check again at the close of the late shows. I'm hoping it can double the presales by the end.

 

Air started the day at 9, currently at 30. Not bad walkups for a Wednesday premier.

 

 

[Eric Prime]

On 4/4/2023 at 2:03 PM, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2014	39919	5.05%

 

Comp - T-31

0.419x of Black Panther 2 (11.75M)

1.181x of Ant-Man 3 (20.67M)

 

Funny enough, with all the doom and gloom, Philly actually beat Quantumania. Go figure. Still not...you know, good, but we're in a new age. Just gonna have to deal with it.

 

(for the record, I'm not doing any "First Day" comp stuff, because tackling three movies with a huge number of showings drained me last night, I also have to set up the Mario weekend thread later, and I just don't have infinite time on my hands. Please don't ask for my mental health's sake)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2310	39919	5.79%

 

Total Seats Sold The Last Two Days: 296

 

Comp - T-29

0.375x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.49M)

0.460x of Black Panther 2 (12.89M)

0.834x of Ant-Man 3 (14.59M)

 

Yeah I had no time to track Guardians yesterday with Air and especially Mario taking up so much time before I had to leave for work. So yesterday had to be skipped. But work and personal life take priority and I think you guys understand that.

[grey ghost]

Nevermind

Edited April 6, 2023 by grey ghost

[Psylocke]

I have to say the two Cinemark Century theater sin the county I live in California called Contra Costa, Super Mario Bros is sure having great walk-ups tonght.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

Tracking walkups today at my local theatre. Mario started the day with 320 tickets sold across four showtimes in two auditoriums. Mainly concentrated on the early showings naturally.

 

As of the closing of the early shows, ticket sales are up to 532. I'll check again at the close of the late shows. I'm hoping it can double the presales by the end.

 

Air started the day at 9, currently at 30. Not bad walkups for a Wednesday premier.

 

 

Final figures for walkups didn't end up moving much. Mario got to 558, Air to 35.

 

The late shows weren't generating much last minute activity. Mario still ends up with a 75% jump when they had a lot of pre-sales. I think that should signal a strong opening day performance.

 

Air was obviously a very different type of performance, but, it still had a decent walk-up crowd for a Wednesday.  

 

 

 

[eXtacy]

Maybe Vol 3 early ticket sales are just being shifted towards Mario this weekend since it looks like it will be a mega opener.

[scytheavatar]

Anyone wondering why "superhero fatigue" is real just needs to read this about how they are squandering the MCU villians:

 

Gorr - “god killer” kills one god, beaten by children, has messy goal. Was inherently incongruent with the wacky nonsense tone of the rest of the film. Studio cut way down on his character.

Wanda - They were afraid to truly make her the bad guy. Studio adjusted the film so she was more grey and had an out to return as a hero.

Kang - hyped as the next thanos, said he killed many avengers. Beaten by ants. Had a fistfight with a non-powered middle aged dad in the climax.

 

Like how the freak can you expect the MCU to survive when you keep sending clowns to fight the superheroes?

[poweranimals]

24 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Maybe Vol 3 early ticket sales are just being shifted towards Mario this weekend since it looks like it will be a mega opener.

I had considered that but after the way things have gone with the recent superhero outings, I think it's probably naive to think there won't be any domino effect from that. Hopefully the reviews are great and Marvel doesn't wait until the last minute to release them. I'm also hoping Disney holds off on releasing Ant-Man 3 on Disney Plus as that just continues to dillute demand for the brand imo.

 

Edit: Never mind. They're releasing it on April 13th. 🙄

Edited April 6, 2023 by poweranimals

[filmlover]

 

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I had considered that but after the way things have gone with the recent superhero outings, I think it's probably naive to think there won't be any domino effect from that. Hopefully the reviews are great and Marvel doesn't wait until the last minute to release them. I'm also hoping Disney holds off on releasing Ant-Man 3 on Disney Plus as that just continues to dillute demand for the brand imo.

 

Edit: Never mind. They're releasing it on April 13th. 🙄

I thought they are releasing to buy on digital on April 18 and Blu Ray in mid May. There is no mention of D+ release date for now. 

 

https://www.piratesandprincesses.net/ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantum-mania-digital-and-blu-ray-release-dates-announced/

 

I dont see 1st one having huge impact overall. But free to watch on D+ would make a big difference. 

[motionpic05]

I find it interesting that there's basically been no buzz at all online with the character posters and announcement trailer this week. It might of been better to delay ticket sales till next week to let Mario blow over at least a little bit...

[Borobudur]

42 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thought they are releasing to buy on digital on April 18 and Blu Ray in mid May. There is no mention of D+ release date for now. 

 

https://www.piratesandprincesses.net/ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantum-mania-digital-and-blu-ray-release-dates-announced/

 

I dont see 1st one having huge impact overall. But free to watch on D+ would make a big difference. 

I believe this is the trend now where PVOD window will precede streaming. Studio realise putting on streaming is leaving too much money on table without much value adding to streamer platform. 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Maybe Vol 3 early ticket sales are just being shifted towards Mario this weekend since it looks like it will be a mega opener.

Looking at how fast Vol 3 sales cratered, I think Mario definitely is a factor. This is despite Vol 3 everywhere on social media from Gunn, Marvel, Fandango, AMC etc all promoting the ticket sales. Folks rather prefer to focus on what is open this week than something opening 4 weeks later. Plus all the other reasons as well listed earlier on this thread. 

 

This clearly means no tracking data until monday as it wont look good :-)

Edited April 6, 2023 by keysersoze123