The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 4/7/2023 at 2:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

 Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27183	27768	585	2.11%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Thursday	10
Total Seats Added Since Last Thursday	1218
Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday	34

 

BREAKDOWN

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-48:	3
T-47:	0
T-46:	5
T-45:	9
T-44:	5
T-43:	7
T-42:	5

 

 

T-42 Comp:

%

Sold T-42

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

81.82

715

715

0/158

21618/22333

3.20%

33839

1.73%

14.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     92/10167  [0.90% sold]
Matinee:    12/3540  [0.34% | 2.05% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

This was the first day of pre-sales for JWD and — um — isn't for Fast X. So that comp will come down in a hurry.

 

Still, it's the first real(-ish) comp we've had for this flick since it first started sales so it'll be interesting to see what it normalizes at.

 

Next update Sunday Night (three days from now).

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27162	27768	606	2.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Since  Thursday

21

 

BREAKDOWN

Spoiler

 

T-41:	5
T-40:	6
T-39:	10

 

 

T-39 Comp:

%

Sold T-39

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

55.85

52

1085

0/167

22418/23503

4.62%

33839

1.79%

10.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       97/10167  [0.95% sold]
Matinee:    12/3540  [0.34% | 1.98% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update Thursday, where I'll probably shift to daily updates once again.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	27026	29671	2645	8.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

88

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.63		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	12.53%		11.75m
BP2	48.11		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	15.74%		13.47m
AM3	74.97		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	25.25%		13.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     466/11075  [4.21% sold]
Matinee:     78/3555  [2.19% | 2.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            262/5522  [4.74% | 9.91% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26983	29671	2688	9.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.27		224	8331		0/329	32585/40916	20.36%		21117	12.73%		11.62m
BP2	47.84		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	16.00%		13.39m
AM3	74.15		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	25.66%		12.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      477/11075  [4.31% sold]
Matinee:     81/3555  [2.28% | 3.01% of all tickets sold]
3D:            275/5522  [4.98% | 10.23% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

[Issac Newton]

@Porthos, Can you run a script for Suzume if possible

 

[thajdikt]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

This movie needs WOM and reviews out asap (presuming it´s good)

[Mojoguy]

Mario stealing all the attention from GOTG, when we thought it would be the opposite a few months ago.

 

If GOTG3 crashes as badly as AM3, MCU is in trouble with no guaranteed hits until Deadpool.

[vafrow]

31 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

This movie needs WOM and reviews out asap (presuming it´s good)

 

Unless Marvel feels like they have an all timer here, I can't see them deviating from the marketing formula. I think they keep a tight lid on things until the usual social embargo.

 

As bad as a poor opening weekend will be, raising expectations and not meeting them would be worse. That's what lead them here.

 

As for the tracking, I can't believe it's losing ground.  While Mario is taking a lot of attention, I would have thought that a weekend where people had trouble getting tickets if they didn't buy in advance would spur people to buy tickets for the next big event movie. 

 

 

[Mickiland16]

So looking at fandango "most anticipated movie" the last 10 years. And their actual result...

2013 - Catching Fire  #2 OW  #1 DOM 

2014 - Mockingjay P1  #1 OW  #2 DOM

2015 - The Force Awakens #1 OW  #1 DOM

2016 - Rogue One      #3 OW     #1 DOM

2017 - The Last Jedi     #1 OW   #1 DOM

2018 - Infinity War          #1 OW    #2 DOM

2019 - Endgame             #1 OW     #1 DOM

(pandemic)

2022 - Wakanda Forever  #2 OW    #3 DOM

2023 - Guardians of the Galaxy 3  ????

With the exception of Wakanda Forever, their poll got right either the number one opening weekend or the number one movie (or both) and even there it was top 3 on both rankings (also to be fair it was only 6 million away from Doctor Strange 2 opening). Now, looking at the presales, could 2023 be the one where they're the most off and maybe not even top 3? Also worth sharing, The lowest grossing since 2013, Mockingjay Part One, opened with $125M and ended with $337M on the full run while all the others got over $150M OW and $400M DOM.

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

MCU is in trouble with no guaranteed hits until Deadpool.

"MCU IN TROUBLE" post number eight billion. Like seriously weve been hearing about how superhero fatigue was just about to happen for years and years. People were calling Love and Thunder a bomb with 750 million plus. Not everything is going to be Endgame guys.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

"MCU IN TROUBLE" post number eight billion. Like seriously weve been hearing about how superhero fatigue was just about to happen for years and years. People were calling Love and Thunder a bomb with 750 million plus. Not everything is going to be Endgame guys.

 

No one said everything has to be Endgame but if you have a streak of major openings with weak legs, bad WOM, and it starts to effect other popular characters, then there is a reason for concern. The MCU had a lot of goodwill post-Infinity Saga, and they've been squandering it. Eventually that's going to catch up, and it looks like it's starting to with Ant-Man's disappointment and Guardians' underwhelming first week of pre-sales.

Edited April 10, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[SpiderByte]

8 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

No one said everything has to be Endgame but if you have a streak of major openings with weak legs, bad WOM, and it starts to effect other popular characters, then there is a reason for concern. The MCU had a lot of goodwill post-Infinity Saga, and they've been squandering it. Eventually that's going to catch up, and it looks like it's starting to with Ant-Man's disappointment and Guardians' underwhelming first week of pre-sales.

If Dungeons and Dragons, which had a comparable budget to most Marvel movies, were pulling in 400-500 as the floor, not a single person would be claiming it's a failure. I don't see how Quantumania is a bomb but Shang-Chi isn't other than some vague bullshit about "it's about hype bro"

Edited April 10, 2023 by SpiderByte

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

If Dungeons and Dragons, which had a comparable budget to most Marvel movies, were pulling in 400-500 as the floor, not a single person would be claiming it's a failure.

 

Because there hasn't been a trend of Dungeons & Dragons movies posting big numbers on average, and D&D films usually don't cost $200-300M! The new film is doing better than prior films but it's still agreed upon as being a disappointment at best, flop at worst. 

Edited April 10, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[SpiderByte]

DnDs currently clocked at around 150 million for budget, that's absolutely Marvel range

[DisposedData]

12 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

If Dungeons and Dragons, which had a comparable budget to most Marvel movies, were pulling in 400-500 as the floor, not a single person would be claiming it's a failure. I don't see how Quantumania is a bomb but Shang-Chi isn't other than some vague bullshit about "it's about hype bro"

Shang Chi was literally a pandemic release and didn't kick off phase 5 and introduce the new big bad. Context is important.

[SpiderByte]

Just now, DisposedData said:

Shang Chi was literally a pandemic release and didn't kick off phase 5 and introduce the new big bad. Context is important.

So? Kang has already appeared before now. This isn't even Kangs last appearance this year. Not everyone who saw Infinity War saw Guardians 1 but nobody was saying that was an issue.

[WorkingonaName]

27 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

"MCU IN TROUBLE" post number eight billion. Like seriously weve been hearing about how superhero fatigue was just about to happen for years and years. People were calling Love and Thunder a bomb with 750 million plus. Not everything is going to be Endgame guys.

Bro, this is tracking below VOL2. 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

DnDs currently clocked at around 150 million for budget, that's absolutely Marvel range

 

DnD is a bomb, no question, at this point.

The only question is whether it beats Shazam for biggest bomb of the year or Shazam keeps the title.

 

That said, we discuss bombs/flops - which relate just to the financial aspects - and underperformers and overperformers - which relate to expectations for the genre, company, and material.  

 

Two different conversations for movies.  Underperfomers (and overperformers) can be flops, disappointments, or money makers.  Just depends where the conventional wisdom on the movie had their box office expectations and where they ended up.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

"MCU IN TROUBLE" post number eight billion. Like seriously weve been hearing about how superhero fatigue was just about to happen for years and years. People were calling Love and Thunder a bomb with 750 million plus. Not everything is going to be Endgame guys.

I don't even like the term "superhero fatigue" but if a Guardians film can't open comfortably above AM3 then that's a huge red flag

[Sckathian]

Marvel will be fine.

 

They have the sequel to a +1Bn character teaming up with TV characters from shows very few people watched. A B character taking on the mantle of an A character and first appeared in another tv show which more people watched but was poorly received.

 

And then they have Fantastic Four! A franchise which the GA has no reason to doubt or have quality concerns over.

 

I think a lot of us thought Guardians would be the bright spot in a difficult patch so if it’s struggling that’s basically disaster stations for Marvel. I don’t think you can put it all down to losing actors either - Marvel has really dropped the ball and honestly acted pretty arrogant in their approach in recent years.

 

Ultimately for Disney to tie up so much of their production budgets in MCU it needs to be a regular money returner. If MCU drops to a 500M/600M average (just an example) then it means less MCU films across the franchise. That’s just how the numbers work.

 

For the record I think Guardians will have a late run up but you can’t just hand wave the impact it’s under performance would have. 

[Sckathian]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don't even like the term "superhero fatigue" but if a Guardians film can't open comfortably above AM3 then that's a huge red flag

Thing is I don’t think you can even call a GotG under performance superhero fatigue. They are not superhero’s but just Marvel characters. If it underperforms I think we have to call it what it actually is - Marvel fatigue.

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Sckathian said:

Thing is I don’t think you can even call a GotG under performance superhero fatigue. They are not superhero’s but just Marvel characters. If it underperforms I think we have to call it what it actually is - Marvel fatigue.

Marvel fatigue is superhero fatigue, those movies are the ones associated with the genre, DC and Sony hardly even register