The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

On 4/26/2023 at 8:28 PM, Eric Foreman said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3753	39919	9.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 116

 

Comp - T-8

1.495x of Black Widow (19.74M)

2.663x of Shang-Chi (23.44M)

1.882x of Eternals (17.88M)

0.336x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.09M)

0.581x of Thor 4 (16.84M)

0.452x of Black Panther 2 (12.66M)

0.772x of Ant-Man 3 (13.5M)

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3910	39919	9.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 157

 

Comp - T-7

1.479x of Black Widow (19.52M)

2.539x of Shang-Chi (22.34M)

1.865x of Eternals (17.72M)

0.330x of Doctor Strange 2 (11.89M)

0.581x of Thor 4 (16.85M)

0.452x of Black Panther 2 (12.65M)

0.778x of Ant-Man 3 (13.62M)

[Eric Prime]

On 4/26/2023 at 8:31 PM, Eric Foreman said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	525	20135	2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp - T-22

1.220x of F9 (8.67M)

0.381x of Jurassic World: Dominion (6.85M)

2.303x of Nope (14.74M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	538	20135	2.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp - T-21

1.093x of F9 (7.76M)

0.386x of Jurassic World: Dominion (6.94M)

2.214x of Nope (14.17M)

[Eric Prime]

On 4/26/2023 at 8:39 PM, Eric Foreman said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Phialdelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	351	28586	1.23%

 

Comp - First Day

2.017x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (12.61M)

0.391x of Avatar: The Way of Water (6.65M)

0.967x of Mario (30.65M)

 

This is very all over the place, though keep in mind that Mario weirdly did poor on the first day only to explode on the second day, so that comp will go way down tomorrow. But double Sonic despite a couple extra days head start sounds decent to me IMO. Excited to see what's in store for us in the days ahead.

The Little Mermaid Greater Phialdelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	553	28586	1.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 202

 

Comp - First Two Days

2.266x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (14.16M)

0.141x of Black Panther 2 (3.94M)

0.497x of Avatar: The Way of Water (8.45M)

0.765x of Mario (24.25M)

[Gavin Feng]

possibility for The Little Mermaid to hit $100M opening if WOM is good?

[JayPrimetown]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-7

Previews - 7,887/86,731 (341 showings) 

 

Comps
0.83x Ant-Man 3 - $14.5M

0.64x BP:WF - $17.9M

0.60x Thor 4 - $17.4M

2.45x Eternals - $23.3M

1.90x Black Widow - $26.5M

Looks good for $20M+ previews to me.

The comp looks strongest vs the most covid restricted films. 

[M37]

On 4/26/2023 at 10:44 AM, M37 said:

Updated chart through T-9, showing the average still floating around $14.5M, and the potential target zones named above. Choose your own adventure, I suppose

 

This is about the time the Thor sales pattern starts to get weird - a big Wed/Thur jump, then flattening out, before playing catch-up late - thanks to 4th of July, so I'm mostly watching whether GOTG3 tracks closer to AMWQ or BPWF from here on out. Tuesday sales were about what was expected, and still on track for 127-128K in Alpha by T-7.  But that's when the real fun begins, and we should have a better idea by /Sunday/Monday (T-4 updates) of what kind of potential trajectory is likely up to the finish line.

Updated chart through T-7 (EDIT: Now with accurate Alpha report)

 

Not much has changed in values since last update, but with the start of acceleration now apparent, breaking away from AMWQ and pulling up closer to the Thor/BPWF/Batman growth range, the preview range can be nudged up a bit: $14M-$18M Thursday [15-16.5M]

 

Next checkpoint will be at T-4, and here's the baseline for comparison of growth over that period:

• AMWQ = +10.4% (deflated, Super Bowl Weekend)
• BPWF = +15.5%
• Batman (Th Only) = +16.8% (review bump came later)

Anything above 146K for Alpha by Monday , would be staying in current range, 150K or above is really good, but with the review bump coming earlier in this cycle, won't really know how much of that increase is pulling sales earlier vs a sustained change in direction that will carry all the way to the finish line

 

As far as the OW ... I have a range in mind, but between the apparent gloom I've wrought on many a frequenter of this board with my previous lower forecasts and lurkers running with it elsewhere, I'm just going to keep that to myself, and let y'all fight over it. Will however, reiterate this point:

On 4/25/2023 at 11:09 AM, M37 said:

Anything above $17.5M would a significant outlier based on data currently in hand. If you're hoping for a bigger OW, better at this point to bet on a higher IM than preview growing to upper teens. Fwiw, I'm penciling in 6x-7x, decent chance IMO it beats BPWF (6.48x) as the highest for MCU since Eternals. Don't think its reasonable to project over 7x given the recent frontloaded history, but also won't be shocked if it were to happen

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by M37

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

possibility for The Little Mermaid to hit $100M opening if WOM is good?

Yes. My expectation is somewhere on the Aladdin range but it can definitely pop over $100M.

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 4/28/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
5/5/2023	Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3	$110,000,000 – $130,000,000	-4%	$264,000,000 – $351,000,000	-4%	Disney / Marvel Studios
5/5/2023	Love Again	$3,000,000 – $6,000,000	-21%	$13,000,000 – $24,000,000	-21%	Sony / Screen Gems
5/6/2023	UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo (Moderate)					Iconic Events Releasing
5/12/2023	Book Club 2 – The Next Chapter	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	-7%	$30,000,000 – $49,000,000	-7%	Focus Features
5/12/2023	Fool’s Paradise					Roadside Attractions
5/12/2023	Hypnotic					Ketchup Entertainment
5/12/2023	Knights of the Zodiac	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	-47%	$6,000,000 – $17,500,000	-47%	Sony Pictures
5/12/2023	Rally Road Racers					Viva Pictures
5/19/2023	Fast X	$65,000,000 – $75,000,000		$146,000,000 – $186,000,000		Universal Pictures
5/26/2023	About My Father	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$12,500,000 – $36,500,000		Lionsgate
5/26/2023	Kandahar	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$14,000,000 – $31,000,000		Open Road Films
5/26/2023	The Little Mermaid (2023)	$70,000,000 – $90,000,000		$235,000,000 – $305,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
5/26/2023	The Machine					Sony Pictures / Legendary Pictures
5/26/2023	You Hurt My Feelings					A24

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-disneys-the-little-mermaid/

[ZackM]

On 4/27/2023 at 9:10 AM, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
4/26/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,408	17,116	25.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.31

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9	13	10	0	2
Seats Added	1,914	1,224	1,082	0	216
Seats Sold	4,502	3,777	3,181	3,061	2,049
4/26/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,918	122,561	1,125,951	10.89%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	30	130	250
ATP
$17.49

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
4/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,468	17,116	26.10%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.30

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1	9	13	10	0
Seats Added	167	1,914	1,224	1,082	0
Seats Sold	5,088	4,502	3,777	3,181	3,061
4/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,919	127,649	1,126,118	11.34%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	35	139	266
ATP
$17.43

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Margaret MTC1 Previews - 6734/125291 82308.10 1144 shows

 

I tracked this thinking this will be a mini breakout based on @Shawn predictions. may be this is doing badly in the coasts and doing better in heartland or something? I am not sure how wide the early shows were but its going to struggle to hit even 500K in previews today. Based on sales seen today and friday sales, I am not seeing double digits OW.  

I'd been banking on the coastal market factor for sure. The early shows may have seriously skewed my numbers the last couple of weeks because after digging through them it looks they were counted as part of Thursday at times, then disappeared completely, then were counted separately. After unnecessarily adjusting Evil Dead Rises from the long range last week, I'm thinking there's a formula or tabulation error somewhere so I just wiped the slate clean and repopulated everything last night.

 

I'd been so focused on GotG and other things that it seems to have slipped through the cracks. But even in checking yesterday, the market samples used looked like 750k+ and social metrics were really good (similar to Jesus Revolution and Otto).

 

So I'm not sure... just a bad read at the end of the day, I guess. I do still think it ends up somewhat backloaded with reviews + Mother's Day. Curious to see how the weekend plays out from previews. Friday ratio is what gave me the most optimism.

[JayPrimetown]

40 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'd been banking on the coastal market factor for sure. The early shows may have seriously skewed my numbers the last couple of weeks because after digging through them it looks they were counted as part of Thursday at times, then disappeared completely, then were counted separately. After unnecessarily adjusting Evil Dead Rises from the long range last week, I'm thinking there's a formula or tabulation error somewhere so I just wiped the slate clean and repopulated everything last night.

 

I'd been so focused on GotG and other things that it seems to have slipped through the cracks. But even in checking yesterday, the market samples used looked like 750k+ and social metrics were really good (similar to Jesus Revolution and Otto).

 

So I'm not sure... just a bad read at the end of the day, I guess. I do still think it ends up somewhat backloaded with reviews + Mother's Day. Curious to see how the weekend plays out from previews. Friday ratio is what gave me the most optimism.

 

It's a film about a girl at a crossroads of faith between Christianity and Judaism. While that's a real thing in certain pockets of NY and LA (as well as South Florida), I think there's a struggle to see how that connects for the majority of the country where there is a minimal Jewish population. NY and LA plus affluent college towns there is higher interest. With that said, Friday definitely looks better than preview night.

 

Big George Foreman in major trouble though.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/27/2023 at 10:38 AM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

First 24 Hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	1515	26757	5.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 10:00am EST}

ATP: $14.38

 

Comparison: 

FAST X

ATP $13.60

 

 

GOTG3

ATP $14.40

 

 

Comps first 24 hours:

Mario OD - 0.934x (1622 tickets sold)

GOTG3 - 0.269x (5629 tickets sold)

 

Too early to make any real predictions...Mario exploded in the final week so that can't be used as a good comp

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	1540	26757	5.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 11:00am EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-28

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-28

0

 

ATP: $14.38

Comparison: 

FAST X

ATP $13.60

 

 

GOTG3

ATP $14.40

[JayPrimetown]

 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-7

Previews - 7,887/86,731 (341 showings) 

 

Comps
0.83x Ant-Man 3 - $14.5M

0.64x BP:WF - $17.9M

0.60x Thor 4 - $17.4M

2.45x Eternals - $23.3M

1.90x Black Widow - $26.5M

Looks good for $20M+ previews to me.

Strongest TC for sure. Where do you see this finish. 35K?

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
4/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,468	17,116	26.10%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.30

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1	9	13	10	0
Seats Added	167	1,914	1,224	1,082	0
Seats Sold	5,088	4,502	3,777	3,181	3,061
4/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,919	127,649	1,126,118	11.34%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	35	139	266
ATP
$17.43

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

Thor sold 275k over final week, Wakanda just under 260K and Ant 3 just under 147K. Let us see what Guardians does. Big day is today when it gets the review boost. Yesterday it did 5K and so I am expecting double that. One day should not make or break anything but review day is a big deal. @Menor Reborn/ @M37 what do you think. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thor sold 275k over final week, Wakanda just under 260K and Ant 3 just under 147K. Let us see what Guardians does. Big day is today when it gets the review boost. Yesterday it did 5K and so I am expecting double that. One day should not make or break anything but review day is a big deal. @Menor Reborn/ @M37 what do you think. 

I think double (10k) is quite possible. Most recent big MCU film where premiere and reviews hit the same day was DS2 which was +50% on worse reviews and with a way bigger sales volume (+28k to +43k iirc). We've seen reactions bumps alone be double as well, though those were on less volume (easier to bump bigger). I think my target was 8k today for 19m, so even that +60%ish will still be ok. If it does significantly above that then my estimate will go higher. Below would be disappointing and would indicate either a broader disinterest in the film that reviews wouldn't make a dent in, or maybe that certain aspects of the reviews turned people off despite being generally positive. If it does only say 6-7k then that would lower my estimate more to where M37 has it. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

Guardians MTC1

Friday - 83445/1275358 1480783.95 6919 shows

Saturday - 80653/1337864 1313250.87 7268 shows

 

Pace is similar to previews at this point.  

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Strongest TC for sure. Where do you see this finish. 35K?

35K is doable but for now 30-31K will do.

 

MTC1 thinking 350K range at the moment, hopefully actuals don’t come under tracked like AM3

[DisposedData]

Reviews aren't looking strong enough to cause a big boost imo

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thor sold 275k over final week, Wakanda just under 260K and Ant 3 just under 147K. Let us see what Guardians does. Big day is today when it gets the review boost. Yesterday it did 5K and so I am expecting double that. One day should not make or break anything but review day is a big deal. @Menor Reborn/ @M37 what do you think. 

I’ve penciled in something like 8/6/9K for the weekend, but a Friday review drop being very unusual, could see it go higher. But again, would caution that outcome might just be the usual Tue review crowd buying early, rather than indicative of a full change in direction/pace