The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Burnett]

On 5/2/2023 at 10:46 PM, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	652	20135	3.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp - T-16

0.982x of F9 (6.97M)

0.415x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.48M)

2.388x of Nope (15.28M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	694	20135	3.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp - T-15

0.989x of F9 (7.02M)

0.433x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.8M)

2.426x of Nope (15.53M)

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales -Love Again (May 4, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	445 PM	3	280	1.07%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	645 PM	5	280	1.79%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	915 PM	0	280	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	400 PM	2	95	2.11%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	645 PM	4	95	4.21%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	930 PM	5	95	5.26%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	400 PM	2	60	3.33%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	645 PM	8	60	13.33%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	935 PM	0	60	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	400 PM	3	40	7.50%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	635 PM	6	40	15.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1025 PM	0	35	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1145 PM	0	40	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	400 PM	1	91	1.10%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	645 PM	7	92	7.61%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	930 PM	0	92	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	400 PM	0	76	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	635 PM	0	76	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		8	840	0.95%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		11	285	3.86%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		10	180	5.56%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		9	155	5.81%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		8	275	2.91%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		0	152	0.00%
Total Sold		46	1887	2.44%

 

Are You There God sold 36 tickets at this time ($600K Previews) and ended up doing a $6.7 Million opening.

 

The Covenant sold 60 tickets at this time ($400K Previews) and ended up doing a $6.38 Million Preview.

 

Given this is another installment in a franchise, I believe it's actually front loaded. My guess is $300K Previews and a $4 Million weekend.

 

[scytheavatar]

4 hours ago, dudalb said:

Times change.

We have to getused to lower numbers for most movies.

Streaming has taken a huge bite in theater attendence and it's  permanent.

I have no doubt these same kind of discussions would have happened if the internet had existed when TV took away nearly half the theatrical audience circa 1950.

 

Right so those who made films like Mario, Scream 6, John Wick 4, Creed 3, all have to get used to "lower numbers"? Sounds like pure copium that the age of Superhero movies is coming to an end and others are going to fill the void.

[Eric Burnett]

On 5/2/2023 at 10:57 PM, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	812	28586	2.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-23

3.328x of Sonic 2 (20.8M)

0.598x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.77M)

0.730x of Avatar 2 (12.41M)

0.772x of Mario (24.47M)

 

Porthos made me realize Dominion worked well as a comp, and I think this will come in handy as Sonic and Avatar are still in their weird growing pains as films that just started their first two days of presales while Mermaid's been around about a week longer. And yeah, I'm with Porthos that it's been having a very strong run so far. This will be a fun one to look at.

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	842	28586	2.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

 

Comp - T-22

2.954x of Sonic 2 (18.46M)

0.611x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.99M)

0.695x of Avatar 2 (11.82M)

0.774x of Mario (24.53M)

[charlie Jatinder]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	109.55		49	827		0/91	13323/14150	5.84%		16962	5.34%		8.92m
NTTD	142.68		73	635		0/136	20744/21379	2.97%		16800	5.39%		8.85m
Bats	23.77		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		8986	10.08%		5.13m
TG:M	25.12		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	7.90%		4.96m
JWD	38.95		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		33839	2.68%		7.01m
BA	114.97		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	20.16%		8.74m
Wick 4	93.50		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	16.63%		8.32m

I think those "Final Sold" nos are off. Per my record F9 was 4441, Bats 11757, JWD 10939 & so on.

[screambaby]

I mean didn't we have one movie make  over 700 domestic last year and another over 650?  Both were sequels and one was a,sequel to a,first movie  released the year the challenger exploded...I don't see the dearh of cinema. .not to streaming not to covid not to 'default'

 Make movies people want to see and they will show up.

Edited May 4, 2023 by screambaby

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid MTC1

Wed - 7913/34986 173283.51 153 shows

Previews - 24206/904581 429233.46 5507 shows

Friday - 19653/1027026 332296.41 5662 shows

 

its doing around 1.2K per day at MTC1.  

[keysersoze123]

On 5/2/2023 at 9:48 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Quick Update

 

Guardians Friday 

MTC1 - 146071/1378257 2495973.03 7732 shows +18154

MTC2 - 112034/944117 1480594.05 6268 shows +21520 

 

MTC2 Fri was previously an overnight run 2 days go. This is a day time run today. I would say roughly day and half of data. MTC1 is 1 day of update. I dont see it catch Ant 3 Friday presales based on current pace. It is slightly faster but delta is way more than that. 

Guardians Friday

MTC1 - 173403/1386380 2930289.57 7797 shows +27332

MTC2 - 129713/939780 1701343.71 +17679

 

Much better day at MTC1. Not sure if it can catch up Ant 3 friday pre sales but walkups should be better. Still tracking about 30m True Friday. But I will update based on walkups seen tomorrow. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/1/2023 at 1:36 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-4

 

Previews - 9936/86732 (341 showings) $147,388

 

Comps

0.91x Ant-Man 3 - $16M

0.67x BP:WF - $18.8M

0.63x Thor 4 - $18.3M
 

2.48x Eternals - $23.6M

1.91x Black Widow - $26.7M

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-1
 

Previews - 15825/89791 (364 showings) $210,772

Comps

1.01x Ant-Man 3 - $17.6M

0.70x BP:WF - $19.6M

0.63x Thor 4 - $18.3M

2.29x Eternals - $21.8M

1.78x Black Widow - $24.9M

[Spidey Freak]

9 hours ago, dudalb said:

Times change.

We have to getused to lower numbers for most movies.

Streaming has taken a huge bite in theater attendence and it's  permanent.

I have no doubt these same kind of discussions would have happened if the internet had existed when TV took away nearly half the theatrical audience circa 1950.

 

Or maybe GotG2 was a mediocre film and just didn't create the level of goodwill as the original? 🤷‍♂️

[stripe]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-1
 

Previews - 15825/89791 (364 showings) $210,772

Comps

1.01x Ant-Man 3 - $17.6M

0.70x BP:WF - $19.6M

0.63x Thor 4 - $18.3M

2.29x Eternals - $21.8M

1.78x Black Widow - $24.9M

 

Final push in line with Thor4 is quite good. I am expecting good walkups, so put me in for 19M previews

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-1
 

Previews - 15825/89791 (364 showings) $210,772

Comps

1.01x Ant-Man 3 - $17.6M

0.70x BP:WF - $19.6M

0.63x Thor 4 - $18.3M

2.29x Eternals - $21.8M

1.78x Black Widow - $24.9M

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-1

FRI - 14838/174395 (744 showings) $192,720

Comps

1.13x Ant-Man 3 - $29.4M

0.56x BP:WF - $31.6M

0.76x Thor 4 - $30.8M

Edited May 5, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 5/3/2023 at 2:17 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26804	27710	906	3.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-16 Comp:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	109.55		49	827		0/91	13323/14150	5.84%		16962	5.34%		8.92m
NTTD	142.68		73	635		0/136	20744/21379	2.97%		16800	5.39%		8.85m
Bats	23.77		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		8986	10.08%		5.13m
TG:M	25.12		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	7.90%		4.96m
JWD	38.95		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		33839	2.68%		7.01m
BA	114.97		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	20.16%		8.74m
Wick 4	93.50		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	16.63%		8.32m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     134/10118  [1.32% sold]
Matinee:    20/3517  [0.57% | 2.21% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Just for Jat, went ahead and added a Wick 4 comp, R-rating difference be damned.

 

...

 

Also added a Black Adam comp because the idea of The Rock vs Vin Diesel amused me.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26762	27710	948	3.42%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	4
Total Seats Removed Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	42

NOTE: One of the non-reserved seating theaters I track announced it was permanently closing on Friday, which accounts for all of the removed showings.  See this post for details.

 

T-15 Comp:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	105.57		71	898		0/91	13252/14150	6.35%		4407	21.51%		8.60m
NTTD	140.65		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		3737	25.37%		8.72m
Bats	24.17		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	8.06%		5.22m
TG:M	24.97		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	8.26%		4.93m
JWD	39.09		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	8.64%		7.04m
BA	111.14		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	21.09%		8.45m
Wick 4	87.21		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	17.40%		7.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     142/10118  [1.40% sold]
Matinee:    24/3517  [0.68% | 2.53% of all tickets sold]

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/3/2023 at 2:18 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	157	21799	22648	849	3.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	657
Total Seats Sold Today	59

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	48.02		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		10966	7.74%		8.64m
BA	140.80		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	18.89%		10.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:        133/5782  [2.30% sold]
Matinee:         19/621  [3.06% | 2.24% of all tickets sold]
3D:            135/4329  [3.12% | 15.90% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:       88/1740  [5.06% | 10.37% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.88366x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-23 [15.16m]    
TLM = 0.53933x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-23 [14.27m]   

 

 

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21736	22648	912	4.03%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	3
Total Seats Removed Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	63

NOTE: One of the non-reserved seating theaters I track announced it was permanently closing on Friday, which accounts for all of the removed showings.  See this post for details.

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	50.41		41	1809		0/179	22839/24647	7.34%		10966	8.32%		9.07m
BA	151.24		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	20.29%		11.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:        137/5782  [2.37% sold]
Matinee:        20/621  [3.22% | 2.19% of all tickets sold]
3D:            147/4329  [3.40% | 16.12% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.86175x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-22 [14.99m]    
TLM = 0.51334x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-22 [13.58m]   

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/3/2023 at 2:19 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	318	31900	39089	7189	18.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	45
Total Seats Added Today	3225
Total Seats Sold Today	883

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	123.95		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	78.18%		19.24m
ET	182.79		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	112.17%		19.63m
MoM	43.38		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	34.04%		15.62m
L&T	63.79		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	42.38%		18.50m
Bats	90.79		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	61.15%		19.61m
BP2	60.28		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	42.79%		16.88m
AM3	93.67		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	68.63%		16.39m
JWD	104.81		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	65.56%		18.87m
TGM	82.53		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	62.65%		15.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1649/12813  [12.87% sold]
Matinee:    322/3816  [8.44% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]
3D:            888/6510  [13.64% | 12.35% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Another strong day locally. 👍

 

NB:  Thor 4 had its first post-Fourth of July sales day, and will see somewhat inflated sales all the way through the final bell. Just something to keep in mind.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	343	33312	41675	8363	20.07%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	25
Total Seats Added Today	2586
Total Seats Sold Today	1174

NOTE: One of the non-reserved seating theaters I track announced it was permanently closing on Friday, which accounts for all of the removed showings today.  See this post for details.

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	120.43		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9196	90.94%		18.69m
ET	179.00		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	130.49%		19.22m
MoM	45.78		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	39.60%		16.48m
L&T	61.87		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	49.30%		17.94m
Bats	87.67		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	71.13%		18.94m
BP2	61.39		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	49.78%		17.19m
AM3	96.64		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	79.84%		16.91m
JWD	99.33		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	76.26%		17.88m
TGM	86.61		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	72.89%		16.68m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1922/13745  [13.98% sold]
Matinee:    398/4148  [9.59% | 4.76% of all tickets sold]
3D:            996/6992  [14.24% | 11.91% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The recovery continues.  Looking like it's converging on 18m-19m.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think those "Final Sold" nos are off. Per my record F9 was 4441, Bats 11757, JWD 10939 & so on.

 

I copy pasted the wrong field.  I'll fix it for tonight's info presently.

 

ETA::::  Fixed for tonight's post only.  If I have time/inclination I'll edit the older boxes over the coming days.

 

Thanks for the catch.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

At my local theatre (Milton, Ontario, Canada), this morning started with 187 tickets sold for GOTG3. I don't have a lot of comparables, but, Mario had 320 tickets, so it translates to $18.5M.

 

Mario ended the night with 558 tickets sold. GOTG3 would need 326 to match the walk up rate. I'm guessing it'll struggle. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a second round playoff game tonight, which likely grabs a lot of people's attention. The late show is actually pretty busy tonight, so people may have already planned to watch after the game.

 

I'll check in later with final sales tonight to measure the walk ups.

[JayPrimetown]

$18.5 Thurs × 6.5 multiplier = $120.25 Million Opening Weekend

 

If this happens, GOTG 3 Day Weekend would be equal to Ant Man 3 4 Day President Day Weekend

[thajdikt]

4 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:

$18.5 Thurs × 6.5 multiplier = $120.25 Million Opening Weekend

 

If this happens, GOTG 3 Day Weekend would be equal to Ant Man 3 4 Day President Day Weekend

6,5 will be hard, I would say 6 is more achievable 

[Tinalera]

Just wondering what comps I might have when I start doing Fast X? Would John Wick be applicable? DnD? Antman/GOTG?  (Those are the ones I would have a comp for. Could probably dig a bit for Avatar if applicable.