The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

Showings are rolling out for spider-verse and great allocation so far 

 

Its selling very good as well 👀

 

First 24 hours: 

 

Spiderverse- 110 showings

 

Mario - 176 showings

 

Little Mermaid - 166 showings

 

Shazam 2 - 105 showings

 

GOTG 3- 205 showings 

[ThomasNicole]

Isn’t it wonderful that DIS tried to fool us into believing animation was struggling due to pandemic changing audiences habits only for 2023 deliver Mario and now likely SpiderVerse as biggest OW’s of the year?

[froztking]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Isn’t it wonderful that DIS tried to fool us into believing animation was struggling due to pandemic changing audiences habits only for 2023 deliver Mario and now likely SpiderVerse as biggest OW’s of the year?

chapek didn't knew a sh1t about box office nd market for animation nd even disrespected the animation movies disney had 3 1b$+ animated  movies (incl lion king) nd 3 yrs later they gave 2 biggest flops 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Isn’t it wonderful that DIS tried to fool us into believing animation was struggling due to pandemic changing audiences habits only for 2023 deliver Mario and now likely SpiderVerse as biggest OW’s of the year?

And now Disney may be fucked these next few releases as they’ve become nonevents due to training the audiences to expect movies at home. 
 

It’s going to be hard for Elemental to open well with two potential 100-150m PG openers two weeks before it.

[WorkingonaName]

Disney fumbled the bag hard after 2019. Avatar is saving them. 

[M37]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians ~ 68k

Ant 3 ~ 87k

 

This should not be like MCU mega sequels at all. I expected backend sales to be lot stronger though not at Mario levels. 

I specifically brought up Guardians because it had an usually slow start and high pace finish for an MCU film, and that might be closer to the track SV untimely takes than anything else. But decent chance the pace here may wind higher, in that JWD/BA grouping, and like $20M Thursday is in play (if there isn’t too much loss in lower ATP)

[Jonwo]

12 minutes ago, YM! said:

And now Disney may be fucked these next few releases as they’ve become nonevents due to training the audiences to expect movies at home. 
 

It’s going to be hard for Elemental to open well with two potential 100-150m PG openers two weeks before it.

GOTG V3 just opened to $118m and TLM will likely open well too. The doom and gloom around Elemental is boring at this point.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

I specifically brought up Guardians because it had an usually slow start and high pace finish for an MCU film, and that might be closer to the track SV untimely takes than anything else. But decent chance the pace here may wind higher, in that JWD/BA grouping, and like $20M Thursday is in play (if there isn’t too much loss in lower ATP)

20m previews for this movie would mean 175m+ OW !!! Best comp for this is Incredibles 2. May be @Porthos will have some comps though that was different era. 

[DisposedData]

Mario and Spiderverse doing so well will really drive home how badly Pixar damaged its brand with their D+ strategy. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

GOTG V3 just opened to $118m and TLM will likely open well too. The doom and gloom around Elemental is boring at this point.

It’s very very very very very hard to open to 50m as an original family film when you’ve had two back to back 100m+ openers, both with potential to do 150m because of how much tickets are and how many families take it up. Not saying it’ll bomb outright but I’m thinking the OW will be anywhere from 25-45 versus the 30-60 I was feeling a few weeks ago. Think it’ll depend on legs mostly now.

Edited May 8, 2023 by YM!

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, DisposedData said:

Mario and Spiderverse doing so well will really drive home how badly Pixar damaged its brand with their D+ strategy. 

Pixar didn't exactly have a choice though, it was all Disney.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Spiderverse has nothing to do with animation. Its literally the best spider-man movie. Will act like a live action.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

It’s very very very very very hard to open to 50m as a family film when you’ve had two back to back 100m+ openers, both with potential to do 150m. Not saying it’ll bomb outright but I’m thinking the OW will be anywhere from 25-45 versus the 30-60 I was feeling a few weeks ago.

$25m even if good or great reviews seems very pessimistic IMO, the weekend thread will be downright unbearable to read if that were to happen. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Spiderverse has nothing to do with animation. Its literally the best spider-man movie. Will act like a live action.

This is definitely playing for the family audience like any animation movie. One of the few family outings for me as well as my daughter wants to see just this one. So it wont behave like Guardians close to release. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

It’s very very very very very hard to open to 50m as an original family film when you’ve had two back to back 100m+ openers, both with potential to do 150m because of how much tickets are and how many families take it up. Not saying it’ll bomb outright but I’m thinking the OW will be anywhere from 25-45 versus the 30-60 I was feeling a few weeks ago. Think it’ll depend on legs mostly now.

That said it depends on demographics. If it’s more like Guardians or Ant-Man, no big deal but if it’s like Mario, a live action remake or Pixar/WDAS sequel then it’s a problem.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

20m previews for this movie would mean 175m+ OW !!! Best comp for this is Incredibles 2. May be @Porthos will have some comps though that was different era. 

Eh, if it mostly sells like a CBM, then it should IM like one too. Won’t rule out Incredibles 2 like performance, but thinking more in 6-7x range of a high teens/$20M+ preview 

[AJG]

22 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Mario and Spiderverse doing so well will really drive home how badly Pixar damaged its brand with their D+ strategy. 

 

These 2 films belong to pre-established mega-franchises.

 

Apart from Lightyear all of Disney's recent animated films are original. The outlook for Original animated movies is currently so grim that Sony just sold off their fourth (!) original animated movie to Netflix just a month ago. The only Post Pandemic original movie to have done well was Bad Guys which had a small budget for a toon (would've been a disaster by Disney standards).

 

The "Disney Plus hurt animated films" theory was crafted up during that really sad time Deadline Anthony was grasping at straws to blame streaming for all the world's ills. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by AJG

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

That said it depends on demographics. If it’s more like Guardians or Ant-Man, no big deal but if it’s like Mario, a live action remake or Pixar/WDAS sequel then it’s a problem.

I think Spider-Verse will be slightly frontloaded, it looks amazing and I'm looking forward to it but I do wonder if it'll act more like a superhero sequel than an animated sequel. 

 

I'm bullish on Elemental and I think the Cannes reviews should help it in terms of raising awareness to audiences. 

 

[Jonwo]

Just now, AJG said:

 

These 2 films belong to mega-franchises.

 

Apart from Lightyear all of Disney's recent animated films are original. The outlook for Original animated movies is currently so grim that Sony just sold off their fourth (!) original animated movie to Netflix just a month ago.

 

The "Disney Plus hurt animated films" theory was crafted up during that really sad time Deadline Anthony was grasping at straws to blame streaming for all the world's ills. 

 

Honestly, the fact that Spider-Verse is SPA's first theatrical animated film since Angry Birds 2 speaks volume on Sony's confidence in their animated studio. 

 

I never really believed the whole Disney+ is hurting WDAS and Pixar which seems to be popular on here for some reason.  

[Eric S'ennui]

15 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	797	20135	3.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp - T-12

0.942x of F9 (6.69M)

0.434x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.82M)

2.290x of Nope (14.66M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	815	20135	4.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Comp - T-11

0.942x of F9 (6.69M)

0.439x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.91M)

2.270x of Nope (14.53M)

 

Thought I posted this last night, but apparently not lol. Here you go y'all.