The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[screambaby]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

===

 

Look, I think a great deal can be gleaned from the first 24-36 hours of pre-sales.

 

I ****ALSO**** think this board, at times, waaaaaaaaay overreacts to that info.

 

Both can be true at the same time.

 

And proclaiming "WHELP! Nothing gonna break out this year I guess" qualifies as an All Timer.  IMO.

 

Nothing is tracking better then Mario's OW  at this pont if I'm not mistaken. This includes a movie I'm invested in and am bummed might be an all time box office flop at this point. One of these movies is coming   this weekend and the others within the next 6 weeks. 

 

Do we see an avatar 2 top gun 2 or mario anywhere on the horizon?

[jedijake]

29 minutes ago, Prince Eric said:

10-11x IMO

That would be in the Sonic 2 (post pan) and BatB (pre pan ) range. That would be pretty good.

[excel1]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its definitely having bigger OD than BW and Eternals at least based on data seen by me. 

 

Well, ok...

 

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

102

2188

4.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1179

4.07%

 

 

Monday: 149

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
321	N/A	20180	1.59%	13	106

 

0.436x Guardians first 11 hours (7.62M)

0.343x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (5.99M)

1.89x Black Adam first 23 hours (14.35M)

0.185x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.36M)

0.272x Batman first 6.5 hours (5.88M)

0.798x Eternals first 10 hours (7.58M)

0.786x Black Widow first 7 hours (10.37M)

 

Keep in mind, this is only the first 6.5 hours of sales (it started at 9AM PT/12PM ET right?), so the Marvel comps are undershooting it. But still, don't think this is a good start for a 100M+ opening

 

Well, this is a bit confusing. In about 30% of the time, Flash has done 189% of the sales BA did? If we take the average hourly of each, using quick math, it would look like this:

 

Flash is at: 

6.68x Black Adam 

1.22x Eternals

.85x Black Widow 

.74x Guardians

.74x Ant

.27x Batman

.24x Thor

 

Hard to see this as bad ? Maybe not OMG HUGE EXPLOSION INCOMING! great but hardly bad whatsoever. 

 

Would think this largely points exactly where most reasonable people see things moving, ballpark of $100m, possibly trending upwards if WOM continues to be great, which would be superb for this film. Flash 2 would become instant major tentpole. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by excel1

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, screambaby said:

Nothing is tracking better then Mario's OW  at this pont if I'm not mistaken. This includes a movie I'm invested in and am bummed might be an all time box office flop at this point. One of these movies is coming   this weekend and the others within the next 6 weeks. 

 

Do we see an avatar 2 top gun 2 or mario anywhere on the horizon?

 

Avatar 2 "wasn't on the horizon" though until well into its actual release.  In fact, more than a few people here said it was underperforming when it came to its pre-sale run.

 

(NB:  It still underperformed my expectations for legs it must be said — but this isn't the thread to get into that topic )

 

Nearly no one saw TGM coming.  That's why surprises are... surprises.  If we saw then coming, then they wouldn't be a surprise!

 

And you're not even mentioning the biggest surprise in recent memory:

 

 

and before that we had

 

 

 

both of those started out extremely slow and then utterly exploded at the end of their pre-sale period.  Faaaaaaar beyond any reasonable expectation.

 

But the thing is the fact that they are rare is what makes them special.  

 

Do I expect any of the films currently in pre-sales to suddenly explode toward the end of their pre-sale runs?

Do I expect any of the films coming out in the next few months to go far beyond expectations?

 

No.

 

But I didn't expect either of the above films to blow up either. 

 

Not to put words in @Prince Eric's mouth, but that's likely what he meant by "It's May".  There's still plenty of time in the calendar for a surprise or two, relative to expectations.

 

No more.  No less.

[Cooper Legion]

53 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

The only DC related thing that would generate as much hype as No Way Home would be if Ledger never died and he reunited with Bale on the big screen.

The dark side is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be… unnatural 

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

===

 

Look, I think a great deal can be gleaned from the first 24-36 hours of pre-sales.

 

I ****ALSO**** think this board, at times, waaaaaaaaay overreacts to that info.

 

Both can be true at the same time.

 

And proclaiming "WHELP! Nothing gonna break out this year I guess" qualifies as an All Timer.  IMO.

 

Oh I wasn’t talking about whole board especially for a non ‘BOT think tank’ member.

 

Thing is me & @Legions of the Galaxy pride ourselves on locking OW with first day of sales. So was just cc-ing him on it.

[thajdikt]

I have faith in The Flash and 100M+, even tho I expected stronger sales first day. 

[grim22]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

===

 

Look, I think a great deal can be gleaned from the first 24-36 hours of pre-sales.

 

I ****ALSO**** think this board, at times, waaaaaaaaay overreacts to that info.

 

Both can be true at the same time.

 

And proclaiming "WHELP! Nothing gonna break out this year I guess" qualifies as an All Timer.  IMO.

 

 

To be fair, I think your post started this entire thing.

 

Now there's no point in tracking Flash anymore.

[Cooper Legion]

I agree with screambaby/Jat(/Porthos really) that miracle changes don’t tend to happen after first day or two (though one way to have what seems like a miracle change is by misreading first day overly pessimistically). But I also agree with Porthos/Eric that it’s crazy to be condemning the whole rest of the year when we don’t have presales for a single 2H movie yet and the defining trait of a positive surprise is not seeing it in advance. 
 

Besides which TLM and SV2 are both poised with a solid chance of DOM totals that would place them as stronger than scream/ear/cocaine imo…

 

 

[dallas]

18 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Well, ok...

 

 

Well, this is a bit confusing. In about 30% of the time, Flash has done 189% of the sales BA did? If we take the average hourly of each, using quick math, it would look like this:

 

Flash is at: 

6.68x Black Adam 

1.22x Eternals

.85x Black Widow 

.74x Guardians

.74x Ant

.27x Batman

.24x Thor

 

Hard to see this as bad ? Maybe not OMG HUGE EXPLOSION INCOMING! great but hardly bad whatsoever. 

 

Would think this largely points exactly where most reasonable people see things moving, ballpark of $100m, possibly trending upwards if WOM continues to be great, which would be superb for this film. Flash 2 would become instant major tentpole. 

So what would that place the OW at, following those numbers?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Yeah there’s lots of stuff still coming this year, I don’t see why we’re writing everything off. November and July especially have a lot of promise.

[excel1]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

So what would that place the OW at, following those numbers?

 

1) Welcome to BOT.  

2) Ballpark of $90m, give or take a bit, trending upwards if reviews continue to be as positive as they appear to be. 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Yeah there’s lots of stuff still coming this year, I don’t see why we’re writing everything off. November and July especially have a lot of promise.

We said the same about June and look how badly some movies are doing..

[dallas]

Idk why people are predicting doom and gloom for Flash when tickets haven't even been on sale for 24hrs. 

1. Who pre-orders tickets on the first day pre-sales begin except hard-core fans?

2. I imagine most people would wait until the review embargo drops to spend money on tickets for a movie. 

3. The older folk who would show up for Keaton don't really order tickets online, let alone nearly a month early. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

To be fair, I think your post started this entire thing.

 

From a PM I sent about five minutes after posting said post:

 

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

BTW, I ***MIGHT*** have just started a five-alarm fire in the tracking thread. 

 

(If, ***IF*** Sacto is indicative, it was coming soon anyway )

 

Tried to massage it as best I could, but.... Yeeesh, not a super fast start for The Flash locally.

 

 

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Now there's no point in tracking Flash anymore.

 

You're trying to be sardonic, I realize, but I went out of my way to put said Early Deadline Sacramento Estimates into context for the very reason that it could be over-interpreted.

 

I knew very well how it might be seen and I wanted to head that off at the pass.

 

...

 

In fact, I tend to think my cautions worked rather well as this thread didn't start getting... animated over the subject until we got a few more sources of data showing similar trends several hours later.

 

Still, the last few pages was fairly inevitable in my mind.  At least I went out of my way to put some contextual points out.

 

(and another contextual point:  Don't even have a full Day 1 sales report in yet from any tracker, never mind Sacto) 👍

[dallas]

5 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

1) Welcome to BOT.  

2) Ballpark of $90m, give or take a bit, trending upwards if reviews continue to be as positive as they appear to be. 

Thanks!

 

I imagine if the reviews are really good, then we can expect upwards of a $100-115M OW, which in all honesty wouldn't be bad at all for The Flash.

[Inceptionzq]

20 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Well, this is a bit confusing. In about 30% of the time, Flash has done 189% of the sales BA did? If we take the average hourly of each, using quick math, it would look like this:

 

Flash is at: 

6.68x Black Adam 

1.22x Eternals

.85x Black Widow 

.74x Guardians

.74x Ant

.27x Batman

.24x Thor

 

Hard to see this as bad ? Maybe not OMG HUGE EXPLOSION INCOMING! great but hardly bad whatsoever. 

 

Would think this largely points exactly where most reasonable people see things moving, ballpark of $100m, possibly trending upwards if WOM continues to be great, which would be superb for this film. Flash 2 would become instant major tentpole. 

It’s only the Thursday numbers that are 6.5 hours of sales, something I should’ve clarified. The Monday previews went on sale yesterday, so you can’t do the math like that.

 

Also, I would be careful with the Black Adam comp. I don’t expect The Flash’s presales to be as frontloaded as The Batman or MCU movies, but I definitely expect it to be more frontloaded than Black Adam. I could be wrong though.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

We said the same about June and look how badly some movies are doing..

Well I personally have felt that June might underwhelm for a while save for a few films. But I would also argue that the brands releasing new films in July and November are in much better standing with the general public than the ones in June.

[Cooper Legion]

11 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Yeah there’s lots of stuff still coming this year, I don’t see why we’re writing everything off. November and July especially have a lot of promise.

I think all of July will disappoint personally.    
 

But there are like 36 medium/big releases remaining this year. At least one of them will probably have a 2 sigma performance. Maybe more. Take a lot of shots, a few will get unusually lucky, that’s how the world operates

Edited May 24, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[Rocketracoon]

How does the Transfromers pre-sale tracking look?