The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	385	12249	3.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

*1 seat refunded, no sales today

 

NOTE: Don't have any good comps for this

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	390	12249	3.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

NOTE: Don't have any good comps for this

[DAJK]

17 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

why do many disrespect that iconic Oscar winning epic classic?

Suicide Squad?

[screambaby]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Boogeyman

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	99	2661	3.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Guess king should  have turned in the script for the lamp monster  instead 

Edited May 24, 2023 by screambaby

[ringedmortality]

I thought Boogeyman was a potential 100DOM finisher honestly

[21C]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Keaton's presence will make it play older. They wont book tickets that early. We have to wait until final week to judge Flash/Indy. That said huge breakout looks unlikely for both of them. 

 

Most of the folks here were not even born when Keaton bats movies were opened. It was absolute insanity back then and both the movies broke OW records back then. So there will be nostalgia in play and its opening during Father's day weekend as well. It will be the movie to go that weekend. 

Again: It'd help if the movie was in any way reminiscent to the 89 film. But it isn't and even Keaton's Batman as advertised is being portrayed veeeery differently. Aside from Keaton himself and the 89 theme there's nothing here to capture the appeal of the Burton films which would've lead it to be bigger than it currently is.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	3906	26292	14.9%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

162

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.628x) ~$11M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
125	4081	27184	15.0%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

175

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.639x) ~$11.2M THUR Previews

 

$11M is probably the low end here. Not sure what the high end is 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
207	4671	35139	13.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

548

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

NOTE: *This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.539x) ~$9.4M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.842x) ~$16.4M THUR

 

Average: $12.9M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
219	5332	37562	14.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

661

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

NOTE: *This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.568x) ~$10M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.962x) ~$17.5M THUR

 

Average: $13.75M THUR Previews

 

Put me down for $12M-$12.5M Previews 

[Rorschach]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

I thought Boogeyman was a potential 100DOM finisher honestly

Can't say I'm too awfully surprised. The marketing has felt weirdly muted, at least from my end. Anecdotally, I haven't gotten either of the main trailers in front of any of the films I've seen at my Regal theater these past couple of months. Even for horror films like The Pope's Exorcist or Evil Dead Rise, which you think it would be a no-brainer attachment for, but nah.

[excel1]

it isn't 2019 any more. A $90m opening for an original solo superhero film is a hit in 2023. 

[dallas]

12 minutes ago, 21C said:

Again: It'd help if the movie was in any way reminiscent to the 89 film. But it isn't and even Keaton's Batman as advertised is being portrayed veeeery differently. Aside from Keaton himself and the 89 theme there's nothing here to capture the appeal of the Burton films which would've lead it to be bigger than it currently is.

You could say the same for Tobey, Andrew, and Dafoe in NWH. But that didn't stop nostalgia from peeking his head through.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

You could say the same for Tobey, Andrew, and Dafoe in NWH. But that didn't stop nostalgia from peeking his head through.

yah. Everyone have their opinions. Let us wait for close to release. If it has underwhelming final week, then it did not work. Until then its all conjecture. 

[21C]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

You could say the same for Tobey, Andrew, and Dafoe in NWH. But that didn't stop nostalgia from peeking his head through.

Raimi's Spider-Man films and Marc Webb's Spider-Man films are significantly closer in tone and aesthetic to Holland's films than Burton's Batman films are to The Flash. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

tbf this thread also said Avatar 2 ( the best blockbuster of the decade )  would be disappointing due to the pre-sale data.

So you have to take these people, and their projections, with a grain of salt. 

Guys, we aren't trying to push an agenda with the data we get...We simply try to do the best we can to extrapolate a potential OW number from the PS data collected. This method obviously isn't 100% failproof 

[Cmasterclay]

If you believe Quorum numbers, this about to be the worst summer of all time.

[Johnny Tran]

This thread is a disaster.  It's way too early to say what The Flash opening is going to be. There's three weeks.  A lot is going to happen in those three weeks,  many screenings, maybe chances of WOM to get around.  That is if it's good.  

 

The way some of you try to paint a film as a failure after day 1 of presales is alarming. You were wrong about GOTG Vol. 3's entire run.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

This thread is a disaster.  It's way too early to say what The Flash opening is going to be. There's three weeks.  A lot is going to happen in those three weeks,  many screenings, maybe chances of WOM to get around.  That is if it's good.  

 

The way some of you try to paint a film as a failure after day 1 of presales is alarming. You were wrong about GOTG Vol. 3's entire run.

Not sure what you mean by this. GOTG3 opening WAS disapointing but quickly recovered because of amazing WOM. Like others have said, we can get a GENERAL idea on how a CBM will perform based on the first couple of hours/days.

[M37]

16 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Looks like Shang Chi.

 

Anyone want to comp Flash and Shang Chi?

I thought about mentioning Shang-Chi, but along with opening during some rough COVID times (which likely created some additional hesitation in rushing out to buy tickets), it only had a 17-day sales window; a compressed time frame naturally increases rate of growth 

[dallas]

My opinion is that pre-sales will start picking up once the review embargo lifts on Flash. 

[dallas]

Also, Fandango asked ticket buyers what hero they were most excited to see this summer, and Michael Keaton Batman was on the top of the list. Not sure if that means anything or not, but it is certainly interesting.

[21C]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

My opinion is that pre-sales will start picking up once the review embargo lifts on Flash. 

I find this argument a bit confusing because it may be true but... come on now. For all intents and purposes, word of mouth on The Flash is already out and has been for almost a month now. They've done a ton of screenings and allowed a ton of social media reactions. Maybe the review embargo lifting and the GA seeing it will cause it to bump, but not that much, and certainly not as much as GoTG and The Batman did since those two films didn't have a bunch of advanced screenings a month in advance.

WBD was obviously counting on the bunch of early social media reactions to lead to great presales which so far it just hasn't. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by 21C