The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It went above that weekend's tracking and hasn't let up since.  It's okay to be wrong sometimes.  The trackers were wrong. 

Some people were too low, others had it about right, and some were too high. That's how it works with a thread that has multiple people making predictions. Anyway based on your posts you seem to be quite opposed to making any sort of prediction from initial sales, so why even pay attention to the thread? Just live your life and ignore what we say. 

29 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That and ATP differences makes comping.... annoying.

 

===

 

One reason comping AM3* and GOTG3 was so hard, IMO, was that there was a string of mid-tier MCU films in 2021 (non-NWH division) and upper tier MCU films in 2022.  Problem was, in 2023 we're back to mid-tier but with a honking huge ATP hike between those two sets.

* More GOTG3 than AM3 for what I hope are obvious reasons that don't need to be re-said.

 

So while BW/SC/ET would be better comps for a whole string of films currently than, say, MoM/L&T/BP2, the double whammy of ATP + the 'rona at the time makes it... Well not something I personally want to do, and only do so with reluctance.  Others may feel more daring and more power to them.

I do think BW with some adjustment is good for this. The initial sales volume is similarish and it was a summer release which I think matters a lot. I do not really agree with using Shang-Chi at all though, films with unknown characters just have a different pattern from sequel/known character films, plus it had reactions the same day that sales started which makes the run hard to comp. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[ChipDerby]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I mean technically if we're comparing his statement to Day 1 reactions/tracking, he's right. The tracking changed as the presales changed. People need to just freaking chill. It opens in 23 days and we'll have a much clearer picture around Tuesday WEEK OF.

[Porthos]

More seriously, look.

 

THIS THREAD DOES NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO FORECAST A MOVIE'S *ENTIRE* DOMESTIC RUN!

 

This thread is mostly directed toward  PREVIEWS AND OPENING WEEKENDS.

 

In the immortal words of Tony Kornheiser, THAT'S IT! THAT'S THE LIST!!!

 

That a good amount of info can be gleaned from a film's run from its OW/previews is what makes this thread so popular.

 

That this doesn't say EVERYTHING and there are still surprising leggy runs is what makes this board (and hobby) fun.

 

I'd say something about Exception Proving the Rule, but even that's trite.  Instead I will point out that folks might misunderstand the popularity of this thread (and make no mistake it is easily the most popular thread on this forum by several orders of magnitude) with it being the final word on a movie's prospects, especially 24 hours into its pre-sale run.

 

---

 

I do have more to say, but I'm in a bit of a hurry, so some other time.

 

(unless the mods come crashing down which in that case, in the immortal words of Gilda Radner "NEEEEEVER MIND")

[jedijake]

A lot of obsessing over The Flash when we have TLM coming out tomorrow.

[Johnny Tran]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Some people were wrong, others had it about right, and some were too high. That's how it works with a thread that has multiple people making predictions. Anyway based on your posts you seem to be quite opposed to making any sort of prediction from initial sales, so why even pay attention to the thread? Just live your life and ignore what we say. 

 

I have posts on here saying 'The Flash' was looking more like internet hype than actual hype despite the trailer views etc.  BUT,  I'm not ready to pull the plug on it like others in this thread after 1 day of presales because I don't think 'The Flash' can be compared to Marvel movies at all. The MCU has a built in audience that's a lot easier to predict and we've seen how front-floaded they've become. GOTG Vol 3. was different because it was a throwback to the previous era of MCU that no longer exists.

 

The DCEU isn't even a thing anymore.  The WOM and nostalgia will be the deciding factor for how much the OW comes in after OD for 'The Flash'.  IF the movie is as "fun" and "great" as some have said,  it can score with a variety of audiences who weren't necessarily going to rush out to see it. 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Some people were too low, others had it about right, and some were too high. That's how it works with a thread that has multiple people making predictions. Anyway based on your posts you seem to be quite opposed to making any sort of prediction from initial sales, so why even pay attention to the thread? Just live your life and ignore what we say. 

I do think BW with some adjustment is good for this. The initial sales volume is similarish and it was a summer release which I think matters a lot. I do not really agree with using Shang-Chi at all though, films with unknown characters just have a different pattern from sequel/known character films, plus it had reactions the same day that sales started which makes the run hard to comp. 

Along with ATP, I just think the specter of the lingering pandemic altered people’s collective behavior in ways we can never fully understand, along with secondary factors like day & date releases and short sales windows. Too many people had self-selected out of the theatrical experience for a while 

 

I wouldn’t rely on anything before Batman as a comp. I also think we may be seeing somewhat of a casual audience comeback over the last 6 months, and may continue to see films outrun even the 2022 comps in Thursday sales pace, IMs, and legs 

[Mojoguy]

16 minutes ago, jedijake said:

A lot of obsessing over The Flash when we have TLM coming out tomorrow.

Superhero film fans are very passionate about the stuff they love, even more than video game nerds. The last 5 DCEU films have flopped (The Batman is nonDCEU), so DC fans are very frustrated and angry right now.

 

TLM has its own controversies, but I'll leave that for its own topic.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Mojoguy

[Shawn Robbins]

Haven't done a deep dive into the numbers posted here, but if anyone's looking for optimism about The Flash after one day it might be worth looking at Black Adam ($7.6M actual previews) as a more reliable analog than a Marvel movie. 

 

The samples I have access to at the moment are spitting out these super-duper-uber preliminary Flash previews in my models:

 

Black Adam (Thu vs. Thu only for Flash): $9.52M

Black Adam (Thu vs. all previews for Flash): $15.63M

 

And that's with an extra week of lead time + way more presales competition working against Flash at this very moment. At the very least, I think we need to get Spider-Verse out of the way before Flash has a shot to build momentum when weighed against Marvel or The Batman comps.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Along with ATP, I just think the specter of the lingering pandemic altered people’s collective behavior in ways we can never fully understand, along with secondary factors like day & date releases and short sales windows. Too many people had self-selected out of the theatrical experience for a while 

 

I wouldn’t rely on anything before Batman as a comp. I also think we may be seeing somewhat of a casual audience comeback over the last 6 months, and may continue to see films outrun even the 2022 comps in Thursday sales pace, IMs, and legs 

Those flaws exist, but ultimately we have to work with the comp base we have. I think any 2022 CBM except Black Adam is way too big to comp to Flash, and Black Adam is too small (and has the same unknown character issue as Shang-Chi, plus imo had the Rock boosting casual/late buys). BW is in the right ballpark in terms of size and seasonality, and played relatively backloaded compared to the Marvel biggies but not as much as the SC/BA set (Eternals is its own level of weird in terms of its presale run, and its terrible reception probably makes it a poor comp given Flash is expected to have good reception). I think it has enough going for it to be worth including.  

Edited May 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[JustLurking]

I don't really know why commenting on the numbers currently available is being equated with giving up on the film?

 

Both points of view that this will play frontloaded and backloaded have valid arguments, and you are allowed to be on the backloaded camp without dismissing the other camp as someone who wants this film to be dead (or viceversa, of course).

 

Commenting early numbers is what this thread's all about, though, so it is plenty fair to say they are no bueno. If the pace can make up for that we will see.

Edited May 24, 2023 by JustLurking

[excel1]

13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Haven't done a deep dive into the numbers posted here, but if anyone's looking for optimism about The Flash after one day it might be worth looking at Black Adam ($7.6M actual previews) as a more reliable analog than a Marvel movie. 

 

The samples I have access to at the moment are spitting out these super-duper-uber preliminary Flash previews in my models:

 

Black Adam (Thu vs. Thu only for Flash): $9.52M

Black Adam (Thu vs. all previews for Flash): $15.63M

 

And that's with an extra week of lead time + way more presales competition working against Flash at this very moment. At the very least, I think we need to get Spider-Verse out of the way before Flash has a shot to build momentum when weighed against Marvel or The Batman comps.

 

So..$150m opening weekend confirmed??

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - About My Father (May 25, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	300 PM	3	237	1.27%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	700 PM	13	270	4.81%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	1100 PM	0	226	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	345 PM	1	109	0.92%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	625 PM	0	109	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	900 PM	3	109	2.75%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	300 PM	0	60	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	535 PM	0	60	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	810 PM	4	60	6.67%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	1040 PM	0	60	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	300 PM	0	50	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	515 PM	2	50	4.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	730 PM	1	50	2.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	945 PM	0	40	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	300 PM	0	217	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	530 PM	1	231	0.43%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	715 PM	8	154	5.19%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1030 PM	0	111	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	300 PM	0	57	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	520 PM	0	57	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	740 PM	0	57	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	1000 PM	0	57	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		16	733	2.18%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		4	327	1.22%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		4	240	1.67%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		3	190	1.58%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		9	713	1.26%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		0	228	0.00%
Total Sold		36	2431	1.48%

 

 

Just not much going on here. Same amount of tickets sold as Are You There God (36) and less than Love Again (46). It's also significantly less than Book Club 2 (72)

 

Are You There God and Book Club 2 opened between $6.5-$7 Million. This one looks more dire as Are You There God skewed older (weekend crowd) and Book Club (Mother's Day legs). Love Again only opened to $2.5 Million. I think this film will do better than that as a comedy especially in the northeast with its large Italian American population. $4-$5 Million Opening Weekend sounds right.

[ringedmortality]

So this year is kind of like 2014 where there aren't a lot of strong openers. Though at least we had Mario this year.

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - Kandahar (May 25, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	515 PM	1	240	0.42%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	800 PM	4	240	1.67%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	1045 PM	2	240	0.83%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	500 PM	1	100	1.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	800 PM	1	100	1.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	500 PM	3	58	5.17%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	930 PM	3	74	4.05%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	500 PM	0	47	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	645 PM	3	40	7.50%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1100 PM	0	47	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	500 PM	0	155	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	750 PM	3	155	1.94%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	500 PM	6	76	7.89%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	750 PM	0	76	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		7	720	0.97%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		2	200	1.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		6	132	4.55%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		3	134	2.24%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		3	310	0.97%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		6	152	3.95%
Total Sold		27	1648	1.64%

 

For comparison, The Covenant had 60 tickets sold ($400K Preview / $6.4 Mill OW) and Sisu had 114 tickets sold ($585K Preview / $3.3 Mill OW).

 

Those two films had Dolby screens at AMC to help push those numbers which Kandahar does not. I saw Kandahar a few weeks ago. The film is ok for what it is, but there's nothing there that stands out that suggests it will have a WOM factor, so not expecting any weekend buzz. Yes, it comes out Memorial Day Weekend which could see some factor into it on Monday, but I'm more fixated on the three day weekend which, unfortunately, looks dead on arrival. 

 

Previews are going to be low here. At best $250K in Previews with maybe a 3 day of $2.5 Million.

[raegr]

"ATP" what does that mean?

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, raegr said:

"ATP" what does that mean?

average ticket price

[raegr]

Ok so in the GTA, Flash is selling the PLF decently on Thursday, but is slower on the weekend. I'm surprised to see it's not getting as many screens but I imagine more will be added

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

248

3159

7.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

261

1901

13.73%

 

Wednesday: 368(+21)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1686	321	23478	7.07%	13	149

 

0.383x Avatar 2 T-2 (6.50M)

0.468x JW Dominion T-2 (8.42M)

1.99x Ghostbusters T-2 (8.96M)

0.995x Shang-Chi T-2 (8.76M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

286

3159

9.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

277

1901

14.57%

 

Wednesday: 484(+116)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1942	283	25776	7.53%	13	163

 

0.410x Avatar 2 T-1 (6.98M)

0.481x JW Dominion T-1 (8.66M)

1.76x Ghostbusters T-1 (7.91M)

1.02x Shang-Chi T-1 (8.98M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Wednesday	3 Showings	307	+3	321
T-2 Thursday	247 Showings	7472	+805	33479	ATP:	16.30

0.828	Avatar 2 T-2	14.08M
0.791	JW Dominion T-2	14.24M
2.016	Ghostbusters T-2	9.07M

 

T-3 Friday

415 Showings

11524

+1718

53674

ATP:

15.60

0.927	Avatar 2 T-3	33.57M
0.990	JW Dominion T-3	41.17M
2.911	Ghostbusters T-3	35.37M

 

T-4 Saturday

433 Showings

10585

+1244

55204

0.798	Avatar 2 T-4	35.39M
0.922	JW Dominion T-4	43.25M
2.617	Ghostbusters T-4	43.02M

 

T-5 Sunday

404 Showings

7245

+854

52218

0.829	Avatar 2 T-5	30.31M
1.160	JW Dominion T-5	44.78M
3.590	Ghostbusters T-5	39.20M

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Wednesday	3 Showings	315	+8	321
T-1 Thursday	256 Showings	8773	+1301	34972	ATP:	16.19

0.865	Avatar 2 T-1	14.70M
0.797	JW Dominion T-1	14.35M
2.068	Ghostbusters T-1	9.31M

 

T-2 Friday

427 Showings

13679

+2155

56154

ATP:

15.43

0.967	Avatar 2 T-2	35.00M
0.948	JW Dominion T-2	39.44M
2.846	Ghostbusters T-2	34.57M

 

T-3 Saturday

449 Showings

12192

+1607

58274

0.812	Avatar 2 T-3	36.01M
0.903	JW Dominion T-3	42.32M
2.484	Ghostbusters T-3	40.83M

 

T-4 Sunday

418 Showings

8210

+965

54999

0.852	Avatar 2 T-4	31.17M
1.029	JW Dominion T-4	39.71M
3.464	Ghostbusters T-4	37.83M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

434

3200

13.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

329

1875

17.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1986	102	22850	8.69%	13	123

 

0.541x Ant-Man 3 T-9 (9.46M)

0.364x Thor L&T T-9 (10.55M)

0.494x Batman T-9 (10.67M)

1.20x Eternals T-9 (11.40M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

452

3200

14.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

352

1875

18.77%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2094	108	22850	9.16%	13	123

 

0.545x Ant-Man 3 T-8 (9.54M)

0.371x Thor L&T T-8 (10.76M)

1.22x Eternals T-8 (11.56M)