The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
125	4081	27184	15.0%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

175

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.639x) ~$11.2M THUR Previews

 

$11M is probably the low end here. Not sure what the high end is 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
125	4272	27184	15.7%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

191

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.682x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$12M THUR Previews

 

 

 

*Not the best comp, but I need a high end*

(2.405x) of Fast X 

~$18M THUR Previews 

Edited May 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1234	22296	5.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

Fast X

(0.867x) ~$6.5M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1288	22296	5.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

54

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

Fast X

(0.898x) ~$6.7M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/24/2023 at 4:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-36 

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1365	23376	5.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Don't have comps this far out

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-35

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1413	23376	6.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Don't have comps this far out

[misterpepp]

.

Edited May 26, 2023 by datpepper

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	390	12249	3.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

NOTE: Don't have any good comps for this

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	393	12249	3.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

NOTE: Don't have any good comps for this

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/24/2023 at 4:13 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Boogeyman

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	99	2661	3.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Boogeyman

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	125	2661	4.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

about 1/5 of Evil dead at around the same time ~$625k Previews

A little over 1/2 of Renfield at around the same time ~$500k Previews 

 

I should have a much clear picture by T-2

[M37]

(EDIT) For Mermaid: Looking to me like from early reports that True Thursday is going to come in under $11M, and its just a question of whether the value is high its enough with EA for $11.5M or $11M flat reported figure

 

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by M37

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Early tracking for Elemental shows a $40M opening.

 

‘Elemental’ Projected to Earn $40 Million Box Office Opening, Ranking Among Pixar’s Lowest (thewrap.com)

$75M for The Flash.

 

‘The Flash’ Clocks $75 Million-Plus Box Office Launch in Early Projections (thewrap.com)

[jedijake]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Looking to me like from early reports that True Thursday is going to come in under $11M, and its just a question of whether the value is high its enough with EA for $11.5M or $11M flat reported figure

 

 

What movie?

[el sid]

TLM counted (a bit earlier than usual) today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 586 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 361 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 83 (16 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): (12 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 366 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 806 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.523.
Up so-so 19.5% since yesterday.
Comps (I don't have a Frozen II comp today because back then I counted on Thursday for Saturday) : Dolittle (21.8M OW) had 395 sold tickets,
JC (35M) had 817,
Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 1.851 = x1.36 = 98.4M.
Minions: The Rise of Gru (107M) had 2.893 = 87% = 93M.

So today it looks a bit worse from the comps because the jump was rather small.
Boxofficepro.com forecasts 118M 3-day. I'm not that optimistic but I'm pretty sure that the walk-ups will be quite good and it's a long weekend so 100M+ 3-day IMO.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/24/2023 at 1:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Here it is 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screening

 

T-22 *First 24 Hours

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
120	1593	25233	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

 

(0.425x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.4M THUR Previews

 

(0.699x) of ACROSS THE SPIDERVERSE

??

 

(1.256x) of FAST X

~$9.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.969x) of Transformers Rise of the Beast

??

 

(1.208x) of Indy 5 

??

 

Definitely not the hot start I expected. Don't want to get into any prediction just yet, but yeah $100M+ is going to be an uphill battle

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screening

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
120	1731	25233	6.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

138

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Once the fan screenings sell out, pace will be slower

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.369x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.5M THUR Previews

Edited May 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Welcbr12]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$75M for The Flash.

 

‘The Flash’ Clocks $75 Million-Plus Box Office Launch in Early Projections (thewrap.com)

This is impossible, no way this movie will do less than 100M OW, they're underestimating that for sure 

[PrinceRico]

Yeah The Flash is not looking good.

[21C]

4 minutes ago, Welcbr12 said:

This is impossible, no way this movie will do less than 100M OW, they're underestimating that for sure 

No way? I  mean, falling just on the 90s range seems fairly realistic, especially considering how abysmal the DCEU reputation is. If the Keaton crowd doesn't show up after all (which they might not, since the film in general doesn't appeal to that older crowd even with that inclusion) then that's the same range as Justice League 2017, which actually makes sense since that was the last "DCEU event" movie.

[PenguinHyphy]

1 hour ago, joselowe said:

Definitely think after 2023 studios are going to see that audiences are fatigued of franchises, remakes and films on popular toys/comics. Disney kind of went into overkill after seeing the success of the Marvel films. That’s why Avatar was so successful because it was a fresh concept. 

 

Your comment makes no sense because IP snd franchises are still the highest grossers by a huge amount. They are going to stop putting out projects altogether before they stop with that      

[JohnnyGossamer]

Flash tracking is just based on the numbers they've seen so far. No need to overreact. It'll likely increase as more advance tickets are sold the closer we get to 6/16... Not unlike GotGV3's OW DOM tracking number being not super great 2+ weeks out of its release.

[GOGODanca]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Flash tracking is just based on the numbers they've seen so far. No need to overreact. It'll likely increase as more advance tickets are sold the closer we get to 6/16... Not unlike GotGV3's OW DOM tracking number being not super great 2+ weeks out of its release.

Guardians 3 was tracking for 130m  weeks out according to the trades and it fell short despite good reception

[PrinceRico]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Flash tracking is just based on the numbers they've seen so far. No need to overreact. It'll likely increase as more advance tickets are sold the closer we get to 6/16... Not unlike GotGV3's OW DOM tracking number being not super great 2+ weeks out of its release.

GOTG3 tracking decreased as it got closer

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Flash tracking is just based on the numbers they've seen so far. No need to overreact. It'll likely increase as more advance tickets are sold the closer we get to 6/16... Not unlike GotGV3's OW DOM tracking number being not super great 2+ weeks out of its release.

This type of tracking is based on polling, GOTG3 underperformed it's 120-130 initial numbers from these types of projections.

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What movie?

 

TLM