The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Boxofficerules]

Feels like Austin Powers 1 and 2 box office.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

So should we take Deadline's number serious? /r/BoxOffice is telling me it's an extreme lowball.

[Cappoedameron]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

So should we take Deadline's number serious? /r/BoxOffice is telling me it's an extreme lowball.

 

Usually when it comes to previews Deadline is lowballing for sure.

[charlie Jatinder]

Spider Verse 2 MiniTC2

Previews - 33127/76697 (320 showings) $395,250

Comps
1.10x of GoTG admits - $19.80M
1.05x of GoTG gross - $18.90M

MiniTC2 will be over-indexing due to T-mobile deal & likely Hispanic over-indexing. So in similar range as other data i.e. $18M.

Edited June 2, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[Boxofficerules]

Poor Boogeyman, it's like no one cares at all.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-8]

1135/19437 [5.84% sold] [+41 tickets]

0.20377x the sales of TGM at T-8                 [3.92m]

0.31784x the sales of JWD at T-8                [5.72m]

0.89089x the sales of Black Adam at T-8     [6.77m]

2.34504x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-8         [7.97m]

0.71699x the sales of Wick 4 at T-8            [6.66m]

0.78984x the sales of Fast X at T-8             [6.02m]

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-7]

1259/19437 [6.48% sold] [+124 tickets]

0.21185x the sales of TGM at T-7                 [4.08m]

0.32407x the sales of JWD at T-7                 [5.83m]

0.90122x the sales of Black Adam at T-7     [6.85m]

2.51800x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-7         [8.56m]

0.72190x the sales of Wick 4 at T-7             [6.42m]

0.85068x the sales of Fast X at T-7             [6.38m]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18839	19527	688	3.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-29 Comps:

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.23		47	1521		0/171	22263/23784	6.40%		10966	6.27%		8.14m
FX	97.18		30	708		0/182	27030/27738	2.55%		8363	8.23%		7.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     109/6084  [1.79% sold]
Matinee:    42/1728  [2.43% | 6.10% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18798	19527	729	3.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-28 Comps:

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	46.52		46	1567		0/171	22217/23784	6.59%		10966	6.65%		8.37m
FX	102.53		3	711		0/182	27027/27738	2.56%		8363	8.72%		7.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       116/6084  [1.91% sold]
Matinee:    42/1728  [2.43% | 5.76% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/1/2023 at 1:28 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

Total Seats Sold Today

46

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	136.23		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	25.86%		10.35m
Wick 4	106.90		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	21.33%		9.51m
AtSV	42.01		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     186/5286  [3.52% sold]
Matinee:    19/2140  [0.89% | 1.64% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23921	25148	1227	4.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	134.54		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	27.30%		10.23m
Wick 4	106.60		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	22.52%		9.49m
AtSV	61.78		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     200/5286  [3.78% sold]
Matinee:    20/2140  [0.93% | 1.63% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

I Don't Even Fucking Know - Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-49]

179/3488 [5.13% sold] (16 showtimes)

 

0.45431x Dune on Day 1                                   [2.32m]

3.14035x Nope on Day 1                                   [20.10m]

0.64621x No Time to Die on Day 1                   [4.01m]*

0.24895x Jurassic World Dominion on Day 1  [4.48m]

* [EA Showtimes for NTTD not recorded until Day 3— no more than 81 seats sold at EA showings]

 

===

 

Okay, Nope is clearly not a good comp on Day 1.  Aside from that?
 

 

FWIW, nearly half the tickets sold (85/179) were at the local True IMAX indie theater.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I Don't Even Fucking Know - Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-49]

179/3488 [5.13% sold] (16 showtimes)

 

0.45431x Dune on Day 1                                   [2.32m]

3.14035x Nope on Day 1                                   [20.10m]

0.64621x No Time to Die on Day 1                   [4.01m]*

0.24895x Jurassic World Dominion on Day 1  [4.48m]

* [EA Showtimes for NTTD not recorded until Day 3— no more than 81 seats sold at EA showings]

 

===

 

Okay, Nope is clearly not a good comp on Day 1.  Aside from that?
 

 

FWIW, nearly half the tickets sold (85/179) were at the local True IMAX indie theater.

Dune is only comp I can think of due to both being PLF heavy & auteur director.

 

 But time difference is an issue and Oppenheimer is open only on a few screens for now so not exactly proper comparison.

Edited June 2, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[WorkingonaName]

Openheimer $20M previews confirmed.  

[Porthos]

Oh, BTW.

 

As for Elemental?

 

...

 

Look, you don't want to know.

 

Really.

 

...

 

Fine.

 

Elemental T-14 Sacto Quick Look:

158/9798 1.61% sold [+17 tickets]

0.31349x Sonic 2  at T-14       [1.96m]

0.40933x Minions 2 at T-14   [4.40m]

0.45014x Nope        at T-14    [2.88m]

0.50159x GBA         at T-14     [2.26m]

 

Everything else is probably even more worthless as a comp.  But if folks truly want comps I'll try to provide them sometime tomorrow (though I'll be out of town for a good chunk of the day)

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Oh, BTW.

 

As for Elemental?

 

...

 

Look, you don't want to know.

 

Really.

 

...

 

Fine.

 

Elemental T-14 Sacto Quick Look:

158/9798 1.61% sold [+17 tickets]

0.31349x Sonic 2  at T-14       [1.96m]

0.40933x Minions 2 at T-14   [4.40m]

0.45014x Nope        at T-14    [2.88m]

0.50159x GBA         at T-14     [2.26m]

 

Everything else is probably even more worthless as a comp.  But if folks truly want comps I'll try to provide them sometime tomorrow (though I'll be out of town for a good chunk of the day)

These doesn’t look that bad, especially Minions

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Openheimer $20M previews confirmed.  

 

[Obligatory]

Quick, someone head over to r/boxoffice and let them know.

[/Obligatory]

[Porthos]

Just now, across the Jat verse said:

These doesn’t look that bad, especially Minions

 

Minions 2 is the good comp, yes.  But it's so tough to tell about pace, which is why I included the tickets sold tonight.  But how much of that was the Halo Effect from AtSV, as nearly everything was boosted tonight.

 

(the Minions 2 comp has also been steadily dropping from my off and on checks, it should also be noted)

 

9 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Dune is only comp I can think of due to both being PLF heavy & auteur director.

 

 But time difference is an issue and Oppenheimer is open only on a few screens for now so not exactly proper comparison.

 

It's a huge issue, as Dune started at T-17 and Oppenhemier... isn't. Still, I was in fact semi-impressed with Oppenheimer's start, which is why I posted about it.

 

How impressed?  As I said, "Hell if I know".

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Poor Boogeyman, it's like no one cares at all.

After this year Disney seriously needs to start doing proper test screenings again, because this is strike 3 after Indiana Jones 5 and Elemental. Any test screening rumours for Disney movies should be discarded going forward. Their audience is an echo chamber of family and friends, and therefore worthless.

[Youngstar]

14 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

After this year Disney seriously needs to start doing proper test screenings again, because this is strike 3 after Indiana Jones 5 and Elemental. Any test screening rumours for Disney movies should be discarded going forward. Their audience is an echo chamber of family and friends, and therefore worthless.

That is only true for Lucasfilm and Marvel. All other Production Studios do normal test screenings as far as I know.

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

After this year Disney seriously needs to start doing proper test screenings again, because this is strike 3 after Indiana Jones 5 and Elemental. Any test screening rumours for Disney movies should be discarded going forward. Their audience is an echo chamber of family and friends, and therefore worthless.

The reviews aren't that bad, it just seems nobody is talking about it at all.

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Beyond presumably will take the animated preview record but I wonder if it can do so adjusted as well

Adjusted as in over I2's preview even with inflation? Didn't I2 do 18M+ in previews 5 years ago? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Transformers 6	T-7	Jax	5	55	236	236	9,013	2.62%
		Phx	6	56	246	246	10,104	2.43%
		Ral	8	52	210	210	6,776	3.10%
	Total		19	163	692	692	25,893	2.67%
Transformers EA	T-6	Jax	5	7	245	245	1,216	20.15%
		Phx	1	1	136	136	208	65.38%
		Ral	1	1	59	59	101	58.42%
	Total		7	9	440	440	1,525	28.85%

 

Transformers + EA T-7 comps

 - NTTD Total - 1.285x (8.09m)

 - Ghostbusters Total - 1.915x (8.62m)

 - F9 - 1.173x (8.33m)

 - Dune - 1.377x (7.02m)

 

This is much more EA heavy than the others; could end up filling up a lot of those shows by next week.  Thursday sales are sitting at almost exactly 50/50 standard/PLF.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Transformers 6	T-6	Jax	5	55	6	242	9,013	2.69%
		Phx	6	56	29	275	10,104	2.72%
		Ral	8	52	22	232	6,776	3.42%
	Total		19	163	57	749	25,893	2.89%
Transformers EA	T-5	Jax	5	7	31	276	1,216	22.70%
		Phx	1	1	6	142	208	68.27%
		Ral	1	1	1	60	101	59.41%
	Total		7	9	38	478	1,525	31.34%

 

Transformers + EA T-7 comps

 - NTTD Total - missed

 - Ghostbusters Total - missed

 - F9 - 1.178x (8.36m)

 - Dune - 1.377x (7.02m)

 - Black Adam - 1.024x (7.78m)

 - Shang-Chi - .945x (8.31m)

 

Here are some T-5 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD - 2.256x (2.48m)

 - Creed III - 3.438x (3.44m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .367x (1.688m)

 - Black Phone - 7.586x (3.03m)

 

Everything I have is either much higher or much lower in sales, but could easily see EA being 2m+