The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

I'll have a better update in about an hour, but Spider-Man is showing 292k at Alpha as of 30 minutes ago, but I'm pretty sure I'm missing about 100ish shows.

Ok, another lazy update...314k.  All shows being captured now.

[Mojoguy]

Just checked my nearest theater and every single Spidey showing almost sold out.

 

The sellouts are comparable to Mario's first full day for this location.

 

Yeah, we have a monster on our hands!

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am more like 120 now. T-Mobile deal impacts are always a bit tough to account for and reviews dropping so late also messed with things. Previews seem like 18.

[Cheddar Please]

Where did all the lower comps come from all of a sudden? I thought everyone was on board with 19m+ and now suddenly everyone is calling it into question?

[vafrow]

17 hours ago, vafrow said:

Across the Spiderverse T-1 , Milton, ON

 

Sales are now 20% below where Mario was at same point for $25.4M and 36% of GOTG3 for $23.8M. Neither of those will likely hold as they were both on two screens to the one for ATSV, so there's less room for walkups.

 

The last four days for ATSV has seen a 20% average daily increase. Sales have been very steady on this from the beginning. The weekend overall is pretty busy.  They added the second screen for tomorrow a couple of days ago, and it's already seeing brisk business. The screen available for advance sales is almost sold out for Friday and overall busy for the matinees.

 

Boogeyman starts the day with four tickets sold. It's really been slow. This has been similar to how Renfield and Pope's Exorcist has performed, and my feeling is that $8-9M range is likely where this is heading based on my little corner of the world.

 

Final tally on Milton is 337 tickets sold, with about 10 minutes to late showtime. Walk ups represent about a 32% increase from the start of the day. That's less than the 74% increase that Mario saw, and the 41% that GOTG3 saw.

 

Lack of capacity is the biggest reason. Still, I was hoping for a bit higher, similar to what I saw happening in Montreal.

 

Boogeyman sold 13 tickets in the end. It puts its a bit ahead of Pope's Exorcist, and, I still feel that's the likely story on this one.

[druv10]

 

Theater Counts for June 2

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	4,320	4,320
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Sony Pictures	4,313		New
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3	Walt Disney	3,580	3,940	-380
Fast X	Universal Pictures	3,462	4,088	-626
The Boogeyman	20th Century Studios	3,205		New
About My Father	Lionsgate	2,464	2,464
The Machine	Sony Pictures	2,409	2,409
The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Universal Pictures	2,340	3,148	-808
Kandahar	Briarcliff Entertainment	2,105	2,105
Book Club: The Next Chapter	Focus Features	381	1,339	-958
Evil Dead Rise	Warner Bros	331	921	-590
John Wick: Chapter 4	Lionsgate	231	490	-259
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret	Lionsgate	188	458	-270
Nefarious	Soli Deo Gloria Releasing	77	166	-89
Chevalier	Searchlight Pictures	70	85	-15
The Starling Girl	Bleecker Street	39	114	-75
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Walt Disney	25	30	-5
Somewhere in Queens	Roadside Attractions	23	32	-9
Fool’s Paradise	Roadside Attractions	1	10	-9

 

https://m.the-numbers.com/news/254290830-Theater-counts-Spider-Man-weaves-its-way-into-theaters-but-The-Little-Mermaid-remains-widest-release

[Inceptionzq]

17 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where did all the lower comps come from all of a sudden? I thought everyone was on board with 19m+ and now suddenly everyone is calling it into question?

Nah it was never a uniform consensus of 19M+

[FloppyBird]

24 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where did all the lower comps come from all of a sudden? I thought everyone was on board with 19m+ and now suddenly everyone is calling it into question?

Lack of capacity

[eXtacy]

Very nice theatre retention for GOTG. Fast X will fade faster. Mario took a big hit.

[screambaby]

17 minutes ago, druv10 said:

 

Theater Counts for June 2

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	4,320	4,320
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Sony Pictures	4,313		New
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3	Walt Disney	3,580	3,940	-380
Fast X	Universal Pictures	3,462	4,088	-626
The Boogeyman	20th Century Studios	3,205		New
About My Father	Lionsgate	2,464	2,464
The Machine	Sony Pictures	2,409	2,409
The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Universal Pictures	2,340	3,148	-808
Kandahar	Briarcliff Entertainment	2,105	2,105
Book Club: The Next Chapter	Focus Features	381	1,339	-958
Evil Dead Rise	Warner Bros	331	921	-590
John Wick: Chapter 4	Lionsgate	231	490	-259
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret	Lionsgate	188	458	-270
Nefarious	Soli Deo Gloria Releasing	77	166	-89
Chevalier	Searchlight Pictures	70	85	-15
The Starling Girl	Bleecker Street	39	114	-75
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Walt Disney	25	30	-5
Somewhere in Queens	Roadside Attractions	23	32	-9
Fool’s Paradise	Roadside Attractions	1	10	-9

 

https://m.the-numbers.com/news/254290830-Theater-counts-Spider-Man-weaves-its-way-into-theaters-but-The-Little-Mermaid-remains-widest-release

How in the heck is  antman still out there?

 

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

Spider Verse 2nd weekend > new TF movie OW, right?

 

Or maybe 3rd weekend?

[Anotherspiderfan]

So is 20M still on the table?

[cooldude97]

18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Spider Verse 2nd weekend > new TF movie OW, right?

 

Or maybe 3rd weekend?

depends if spider-verse's legs acts like a superhero movie or a family animated movie 

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Spider Verse 2nd weekend > new TF movie OW, right?

 

Or maybe 3rd weekend?

most likely yes.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Anotherspiderfan said:

So is 20M still on the table?

Possibly, but it’s going to take a very specific set of conditions (market over & under-performance) to get there, and without a very good comp to light the way

 

Alpha is the largest sample, and leaning at least close to it, but too many other data points are far enough below that it seems less likely. Usually by this time there’s good convergence, but instead the range hasn’t narrowed much from a couple of days ago 

 

 

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Possibly, but it’s going to take a very specific set of conditions (market over & under-performance) to get there, and without a very good comp to light the way

 

Alpha is the largest sample, and leaning at least close to it, but too many other data points are far enough below that it seems less likely. Usually by this time there’s good convergence, but instead the range hasn’t narrowed much from a couple of days ago 

 

 

In that case, when will we get actual data on pre-sales? I assume pretty soon

[charlie Jatinder]

Depending on where some numbers land, 17.5-18. 

[rehpyc]

18.5M is almost definitely the floor, based on overall sales of MTC3. What's really putting to question the potential above that is how much the lack of the ATOM deal is impacting (or not) overall market share for this one.

[FloppyBird]

24 minutes ago, Anotherspiderfan said:

So is 20M still on the table?

No

[Legion Again]

Dread it…, run from it…