The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
169	1030	24819	4.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

134

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Good growth today

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.5M+

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	1254	26526	4.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

224

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

This is actually pretty good 

 

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.5M 

 

So $2.5M-$3M previews 

[Mulder]

23 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
267	4647	53314	8.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

615

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.496x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$8.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.560x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$9.7M THUR Previews 

 

(1.566x) of FAST X

~$11.7M THUR Previews

 

(1.235x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$10.8M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $10.2M Previews

 

Thinking comp avg falls to $9.5M during tmrw t-0 check. As of right now, I'm ruling out $80M OW and the new target is low 60Ms with $9.5M-$10M previews. Would not be shocked if we see an OW number starting with a 5

 

Transformers comp is in complete freefall 

Honestly it is absolutely insane that it's entirely possible this thing'll open in the 50s. Never would I have predicted this. Especially bad since this was the last day for it to really make it or break it. There's still tomorrow and the rest of today I guess but...not looking good.

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - The Blackening (June 15, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	715 PM	4	240	1.67%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	945 PM	3	240	1.25%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	645 PM	5	95	5.26%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	800 PM	6	95	6.32%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	920 PM	0	95	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	1040 PM	0	95	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	600 PM	9	74	12.16%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	730 PM	8	66	12.12%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	1010 PM	2	66	3.03%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	600 PM	4	70	5.71%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	900 PM	11	70	15.71%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1015 PM	2	98	2.04%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1130 PM	0	70	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	600 PM	1	406	0.25%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	830 PM	7	406	1.72%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1010 PM	1	100	1.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	600 PM	7	76	9.21%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	830 PM	0	76	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	1040 PM	0	49	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		7	480	1.46%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		11	380	2.89%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		19	206	9.22%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		17	308	5.52%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		9	912	0.99%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		7	201	3.48%
Total Sold		70	2487	2.81%

 

70 tickets sold across the six theaters I track for Thursday's preview day. I don't have any AA focused films to compare to, so this is more an experimental one.

 

Two other comedies:

 

About My Father (36 purchased / 2,431 total seats) 

Book Club 2 (71 purchased / 1,967 total seats)

 

I think this film is going to over index in city locations especially those with a strong AA composition like Atlanta, so I think my numbers are a bit inflated which would potentially put this over $10 Million weekend. I see it coming in under that unfortunately as I thought the trailer was pretty funny for this one. 

[Relevation]

32 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	1254	26526	4.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

224

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

This is actually pretty good 

 

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.5M 

 

So $2.5M-$3M previews 

From what I’ve been seeing it’s been having solid growth from Orlando for the last week. Could it potentially overindex to $3.5-4M?

[Bob Train]

Any hope for an opening over Black Adam or is that off the table?

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

Spiderverse is gonna be the highest grossing (or at least most profitable) movie of June isn't it?

 

[XXR & Friends]

15 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Any hope for an opening over Black Adam or is that off the table?

 

I wouldn't push it off the table but I also wouldn't favor it either. WOM will need to take hold and give it some stronger than anticipated increases on Fri/Sat and a strong hold Sunday. My current expectation is something like 9.5 - 16 - 17.5 - 16 = 59

[TheFlatLannister]

49 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Honestly it is absolutely insane that it's entirely possible this thing'll open in the 50s. Never would I have predicted this. Especially bad since this was the last day for it to really make it or break it. There's still tomorrow and the rest of today I guess but...not looking good.

Yeah, things went from meh to bad fast. I was feeling confident in $100M+ pre tracking, then I was at $80M-$90M last week...Now we're debating if it will even do $60M 

[Welcbr12]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
267	4647	53314	8.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

615

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.496x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$8.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.560x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$9.7M THUR Previews 

 

(1.566x) of FAST X

~$11.7M THUR Previews

 

(1.235x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$10.8M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $10.2M Previews

 

Thinking comp avg falls to $9.5M during tmrw t-0 check. As of right now, I'm ruling out $80M OW and the new target is low 60Ms with $9.5M-$10M previews. Would not be shocked if we see an OW number starting with a 5

 

Transformers comp is in complete freefall 

 

This could be THAT BAD? Jesus Christ 

[TheFlatLannister]

33 minutes ago, Relevation said:

From what I’ve been seeing it’s been having solid growth from Orlando for the last week. Could it potentially overindex to $3.5-4M?

There was always a chance Orlando was over-indexing for obvious reasons, but I believe Keyser said ~3M so I would stay on the lower end 

[AJG]

23 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Any hope for an opening over Black Adam or is that off the table?

The Rock’s Twitter account is gonna be bonkers on Monday.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
183	1904	37284	5.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.370x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.337x) of FAST X

~$10M THUR Previews

 

(1.543x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$13.6M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $10M

This seems pretty good I think. it should only get better if the reviews continue to to be positive and the RT score goes up.  This movies seems made for walkups and late sales from the older casual crowd.  I really have a hard time seeing a Flash freefall here. 

[screambaby]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

This seems pretty good I think. it should only get better if the reviews continue to to be positive and the RT score goes up.  This movies seems made for walkups and late sales from the older casual crowd.  I really have a hard time seeing a Flash freefall here. 

Trying not  to get too excited. Hope the trend continues upwards.

[Joyous Legion]

Elementals and Indiana each seem to be having a critical recovery from their panning at Cannes which could contribute to somewhat unusual presale trajectories (though to be clear I’d expect the effect to be minor overall). Indiana Jones (and MI7) should be able to track a more RotB/F10/AtSV kind of final week rather than the live action CBMs as long as the impression is “yeah it’s pretty solid for what you’d expect.” Jury still out though.

[deniima]

The worst part about these Flash numbers to me is that the streak of a movie grossing 30M+ every weekend since mid-February will likely be broken next week. I thought the movie's second weekend would surely be high enough to allow the streak to run until like August but...  next weekend would've tied the previous record too

Edited June 15, 2023 by deniima

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, deniima said:

The worst part about these Flash numbers to me is that the streak of a movie grossing 30M+ every weekend since mid-February will likely be broken next week. I thought the Flash's second weekend would surely be high enough to allow the streak to run until like August but...  

Believe in the power of multiverses 

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, deniima said:

The worst part about these Flash numbers to me is that the streak of a movie grossing 30M+ every weekend since mid-February will likely be broken next week. I thought the Flash's second weekend would surely be high enough to allow the streak to run until like August but...  

 

Don't count out ATSV week 4. Especially since it could get back some PLFs.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morning update

MTC1 Previews

Elemental - 18281/339860 278983.89 2511 shows //+1430 from yesterday night

Flash - 107330/618420 1951157.10 //+5011 from yesterday night

 

Elemental probably will be around 23-24K by T-1. I am thinking 60K max at lower ATP. low 3 previews is what I see. 

 

Flash looks like finishing around 117-120K range. Probably 16-19K. Normally we are looking at 3.7-4x this for final day as walkups during heart of summer should be robust. It can still hit double digit previews at high end. 

 

I dont have MTC2 anymore but charlie and/or @rehpyc will probably provide context at other MTC. 

A bit surprised but why this update? Will you not be able to check tonight?

Edited June 15, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Walmart+ screenings for MI7 wont matter that much. There are only few shows and that too just standard format shows at 3PM. There wont be any MTC3 as they are not sold through Atom. 

Seems like almost all MiniTC2 locs doing it. Even though it will be standard only, but it is still early shows of a HUGE film on Sunday matinee.

 

They will sell really well by the time it release.

[Bob Train]

42 minutes ago, deniima said:

The worst part about these Flash numbers to me is that the streak of a movie grossing 30M+ every weekend since mid-February will likely be broken next week. I thought the Flash's second weekend would surely be high enough to allow the streak to run until like August but...  

Even with 60m OW it could still do 30m second weekend with a decent hold and good WOM. Not guaranteed but possible.