The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

The Flash (D-1)

 

2,642 tickets sold (+457)

[WorkingonaName]

Should have had Keaton interview a V-tuber, $100M guaranteed.  

[21C]

8 minutes ago, Shawn said:

They're only compared in the sense that they were very unusual factors in play that weren't present in any kind of normal forecasting model for other or similar films. For very different reasons, yes, but people were highly inclined *not* to rush out and see those movies in a theater, and those were outside the typical spectrum of reasons for why movies misfire at the box office.

I mean, yeah, but as I said before two things weren't the only unusual factors working against TSS. And The Flash, unlike TSS, does have some unusual factors that should be working in its favor.  If anything, maaaaybe Dark Phoenix would be a better comparison? (Hell, if this movie didn't have Batman in it, its totally conceivably it'd have opened to Dark Phoenix numbers)

Edited June 14, 2023 by 21C

[Starphanluke]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

Feels like that's a little harsh on Transformers, but it could totally happen. Competition is going to hurt. 

 

The rest feels right.

[keysersoze123]

Morning update

MTC1 Previews

Elemental - 18281/339860 278983.89 2511 shows //+1430 from yesterday night

Flash - 107330/618420 1951157.10 //+5011 from yesterday night

 

Elemental probably will be around 23-24K by T-1. I am thinking 60K max at lower ATP. low 3 previews is what I see. 

 

Flash looks like finishing around 117-120K range. Probably 16-19K. Normally we are looking at 3.7-4x this for final day as walkups during heart of summer should be robust. It can still hit double digit previews at high end. 

 

I dont have MTC2 anymore but charlie and/or @rehpyc will probably provide context at other MTC. 

[excel1]

8 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

You keep spamming this line and don't seem to realize that most people are using "recent non-Marvel films" and they still look horrible. 

 

Flash following Jurassic World presales to talks up percentage would be a great number.

[21C]

Just now, excel1 said:

 

Flash following Jurassic World presales to talks up percentage would be a great number.

In what universe does Jurassic World make more sense as a comp than other CBMs for an event CBM like this? Hell, if anything is gonna follow Jurassic comps, it might be Aquaman 2. 

[Bobzaruni]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

ATSV only -43% against 1 huge opener and another moderate one (each of which overlaps with its demographics), alongside multiple current movies seems somewhat high, no? Or am I overestimating the impact of The Flash and Elemental on it?

Edited June 14, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, 21C said:

In what universe does Jurassic World make more sense as a comp than other CBMs for an event CBM like this? Hell, if anything is gonna follow Jurassic comps, it might be Aquaman 2. 

 

light hearted porpcorny family and teen friendly non-marvel action film.

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

ATSV only -43% against 1 huge opener and another moderate one (each of which overlaps with its demographics), alongside multiple current movies seems somewhat high, no? Or am I overestimating the impact of The Flash and Elemental on it?

it should get a strong fathers day boost alongside transformers and flash

[Bobzaruni]

8 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

it should get a strong fathers day boost alongside transformers and flash

Ooh, I missed that it's a non-traditional weekend. My fault!

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Flash following Jurassic World presales to talks up percentage would be a great number.

It would actually be the same 9-10 that we've been discussing. 

[Porthos]

Apologies for breaking into all of this Flash OW discussion for an actual Tracking question,  but can anyone in other markets confirm for me that Regal does NOT have access to the Walmart+ See It First showings for MI7?

 

It's not playing at any of my local Regals and it's not listed on the corp site as near as I can tell.  But sometimes searches can be a bit wonky and, IMO at least, its corp site isn't the best for searching.

 

(in fact right now I only have it at my local Cinemarks [though I do know it's also at AMC which isn't in my coverage area)

[WorkingonaName]

whats a walmart+?

[keysersoze123]

when did MI presales start?

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

when did MI presales start?

About six hours ago, i think

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

when did MI presales start?

officially at 9 AM EST, thats the time they announced yesterday and tweeted this morning at that time but you could purchase them from late last night, guess chains messed up

[excel1]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

It would actually be the same 9-10 that we've been discussing. 

 

Its opening weekend would be 9-10?

[katnisscinnaplex]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Apologies for breaking into all of this Flash OW discussion for an actual Tracking question,  but can anyone in other markets confirm for me that Regal does NOT have access to the Walmart+ See It First showings for MI7?

 

It's not playing at any of my local Regals and it's not listed on the corp site as near as I can tell.  But sometimes searches can be a bit wonky and, IMO at least, its corp site isn't the best for searching.

 

(in fact right now I only have it at my local Cinemarks [though I do know it's also at AMC which isn't in my coverage area)

I haven't seen any Regals participating in this.  

[Bobzaruni]

Just now, excel1 said:

 

Its opening weekend would be 9-10?

Thursday not OW