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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

267

4647

53314

8.7%

*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

615

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.496x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$8.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.560x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$9.7M THUR Previews 

 

(1.566x) of FAST X

~$11.7M THUR Previews

 

(1.235x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$10.8M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $10.2M Previews

 

Thinking comp avg falls to $9.5M during tmrw t-0 check. As of right now, I'm ruling out $80M OW and the new target is low 60Ms with $9.5M-$10M previews. Would not be shocked if we see an OW number starting with a 5

 

Transformers comp is in complete freefall 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

267

5713

53314

10.7%

*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1066

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.528x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$9.2M THUR Previews

 

(0.511x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$8.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.484x) of FAST X

~$11.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.257x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$11M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $10M Previews

 

I'll go with $9M-$10M previews 

So ~$9.5M sounds right to me

 

$55M-$65M OW feels like the range (would probably lean on the higher end here)

 

I'm not sure if this can even clear Black Adam's final DOM number (using the lower end)

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

180

1254

26526

4.7%

*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

224

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

This is actually pretty good 

 

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.5M 

 

So $2.5M-$3M previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-0 *Final update 

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

180

1627

26526

6.1%

*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

373

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Was expecting a bigger final day, but numbers are still fine (relative to early pace) 

 

comp is at $2.5M 

 

Going with $2.5M-$3M (probably closer to the lower end) 

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Blackening 

 

Wednesday

 

T-0

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

15

376

2169

17.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

84

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Thursday

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

              56

248

8645

2.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS (THUR ONLY)

T-1

 

(0.615x) of The Boogeyman

~$670K THUR + anything it makes from EA

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Blackening 

 

Thursday

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

            135

308

18229

1.7%

*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

79

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMP

T-0

 

(0.668x) of The Boogeyman

~$700K THUR + anything it makes from EA

 

Kind of a weak finish...EA was good but THUR numbers were meh

Edited by TheFlatLannister
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ZackM said:

101k was not the Tuesday number.  It was just an erroneous number.  It's not unusual for T-2 to have minimal growth over T-3.  I was thinking more like 10k Tuesday and 15k Wednesday.

 

But, we'll have a real number to comp in a few hours.  So that will tell the story.

 

I think with the context of this update the number for last night could have been near 117k, so that's what I'm plugging in.

 

The Flash
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Last Day Previous 2 Days 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 70 380 189 0
Seats Added 6,484 44,380 23,279 0
Seats Sold 17,641 ~26823 8,738 4,575
           
6/15/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 428 3,383 134,641 603,386 22.31%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 4 40 157 338
           
ATP Gross        
$17.65 $2,376,414        

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Is A2 Avatar 2 - if not, I'd suggest that one, even though it's December for similar long length blockbuster sequel with a Caucasian and male slanted audience full of amazing on screen visuals...

 

It is.  Maybe I'll switch it to "Ava 2" to make it a bit more clear.

 

(FWIW, I'm more concerned about 3D/larger base fan rush as a comp for it than Dec/Summer differences)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Will Flash have early screenings added to the Thursday preview number, or were all of those free? 

 

Fan First showings yesterday cost money; everything else was free (as far as I know).

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

I think with the context of this update the number for last night could have been near 117k, so that's what I'm plugging in.

 

The Flash
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Last Day Previous 2 Days 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 70 380 189 0
Seats Added 6,484 44,380 23,279 0
Seats Sold 17,641 ~26823 8,738 4,575
           
6/15/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 428 3,383 134,641 603,386 22.31%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 4 40 157 338
           
ATP Gross        
$17.65 $2,376,414        

 

 

Think thats a very solid number, its just about ahead of Black Adam and Transformers finals without including walk ups at all, + fan screenings and higher prices. Should be able to get 200k+ by end of night with ease no doubt

Edited by excel1
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-0 *Final update 

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

180

1627

26526

6.1%

*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

373

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Was expecting a bigger final day, but numbers are still fine (relative to early pace) 

 

comp is at $2.5M 

 

Going with $2.5M-$3M (probably closer to the lower end) 

What was your Mermaid final ticket sales number?

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Fan First showings yesterday cost money; everything else was free (as far as I know).

 

More like WB bought the tickets and will be using them to inflate the gross tomorrow James Cameron 2009 style 😲

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

203

23257

26874

3617

13.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today

6

Total Seats Added Today

382

Total Seats Sold Today

795

 

T-1 Comps:

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-1

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

Bats

37.92

 

1621

9539

 

1/327

29315/38854

24.55%

 

11757

30.76%

 

8.19m

BA

114.68

 

585

3154

 

0/249

28462/31616

9.98%

 

4494

80.49%

 

8.72m

Shazam 2

338.35

 

260

1069

 

0/165

22098/23167

4.61%

 

1663

217.50%

 

11.50m

AtSV

51.41

 

1632

7035

 

0/251

23809/30844

22.81%

 

9744

37.12%

 

8.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     655/6041  [10.84% sold]
Matinee:    169/2323  [7.28% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:45am - 12:15pm]

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

205

22721

26972

4251

15.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today

2

Total Seats Added Today

98

Total Seats Sold Today

634

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

 

   

%

 

Sold Since
Last Night

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

Bats [11:30-12:35]

40.57

 

939

10478

 

1/327

28376/38854

26.97%

 

11757

36.16%

 

8.76m

BA [11:35-12:25]

117.43

 

466

3620

 

0/250

28058/31678

11.43%

 

4494

94.59%

 

8.92m

Shaz[11:40-12:10]

341.17

 

177

1246

 

0/165

21921/23167

5.38%

 

1663

255.62%

 

11.60m

AtSV[11:40-12:15]

52.69

 

1033

8068

 

0/251

22776/30844

26.16%

 

9744

43.63%

 

9.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        782/6041  [12.94% sold]
Matinee:    231/2323  [9.94% | 5.43% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Fairly decent start to the day.  The Shazam 2 comp is gonna take a nose dive at the end as I somehow think it will be... difficult for Flash to sell the 1400+ tickets needed for it to keep pace against it. 

 

Didn't have the fan first event locally and things do look to be trending upward a bit so at least should clear 9m from Sacto.  If I had to guess, I'd say we're locally homing in on 9.25m based on these comps, but could be a touch higher.  Just have to see how the rest of the walkups go between now and stop of sample.

Edited by Porthos
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Think thats a very solid number, its just about ahead of Black Adam and Transformers finals without including walk ups at all, + fan screenings and higher prices. Should be able to get 200k+ by end of night with ease no doubt

200k would be very, very difficult from here actually. I would guess 185-190. 

Edited by Menor Reborn
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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

200k would be very, very difficult from here actually. I would guess 185-190. 

 

Im thinking 215k actually, maybe even more. 230k?

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday (Previews?)

 

T-26 *First 24 Hours 

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

166

675

33846

1.99%

*numbers taken as of 12:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

 

T-25

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

11

429

2148

20.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 15 sold / 291 seats  (+2)

MTC2 = 17 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

Tracking this is going to be a headache...

 

RoTB comp is at (1.244x) ~$10.9M (But different days and EA makes things complicated...Plus the MI7 discounts

frustrated oh no GIF by Gordon Ramsay

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

The Flash, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 632 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 449 (20 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 63 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 96 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 523 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.010 (20 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.794.

Up mediocre 12% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Eternals (21.2M true Friday/ 71.3M OW) had 4.090 sold tickets = 14.4M true Friday for The Flash
Thor 4 (40.5M/144.2M) had 6.946 = 16.2M,
GotG3 (30.7M/118.4M) had 4.484 = 19M,
SC (20.8M/75.4M) had 3.617 = 16M
and Wakanda Forever (56.3M/181.3M) had 8.736 sold tickets = 18M.

So my average true Friday number is 16.5M.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Flash, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 632 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 449 (20 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 63 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 96 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 523 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.010 (20 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 9.5 : 2.794.

Up mediocre 12% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Eternals (21.2M true Friday/ 71.3M OW) had 4.090 sold tickets = 14.4M true Friday for The Flash
Thor 4 (40.5M/144.2M) had 6.946 = 16.2M,
GotG3 (30.7M/118.4M) had 4.484 = 19M,
SC (20.8M/75.4M) had 3.617 = 16M
and Wakanda Forever (56.3M/181.3M) had 8.736 sold tickets = 18M.

So my average true Friday number is 16.5M.

9.5 Thurs/16.5 Fri/18 Sat/15 Sun? maybe? 

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