The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Redolent]

Barbie tickets now on sale in the UK (Cineworld)

Edited June 21, 2023 by Redolent

[M37]

5 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Those of you can, I will suggest to ignore IMAX sales of Oppenheimer and comp the regular & non-IMAX PLF with $4-5M previews films.

Glad I'm not the only one looking at it this way. With that said, don't think the Fast X/JWD range is where the pace of the standard tickets is going to fall, given its going to skew to older white men, not a younger diverse GA. Maybe John Wick 4, but really expecting more a flatter final week like TGM & Avatar 

 

5 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

For Barbie, go with Dont Worry Darling

Had totally forgotten this movie existed! Don't have numbers for it logged, but remember it had a VERY weak final week, though partially that was review driven. Could serve as a good lower bound comp though

 

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

ATSV is too big for it.

Size doesn't really matter if you can match the growth rate pace, in the same way that the BA/JW4/Fast X grouping proved to be good comps for ATSV even though they were all less than half the size

 

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by M37

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

****EARLY ACCESS SHOWINGS ONLY SO FAR****

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	3	177	373	196	52.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

196

 

On 6/2/2023 at 4:31 AM, Porthos said:

I Don't Even Fucking Know - Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-49]

179/3488 [5.13% sold] (16 showtimes)

 

So for this market, Barbie's 3 EA shows outsold Oppenheimer's Day 1 of full PLF allotment, including a limited edition 70mm IMAX?

 

 

Going to be really difficult to not get to ahead of ourselves about these early sales given the likely demo skew, because they're almost certainly going to be zipping in a few hours. Almost feels like comps need to stay in the CBM range just to not overshoot

[Jonwo]

In regards to Mission Impossible, I suspect it'll attract a lot of walk ins so it'll do decently but skewed because of the five and a half day opening. 

[el sid]

17 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

Don't think Dune had any special IMAX 70mm prints like this one, it just skewed heavily towards IMAX in general. Which granted, Oppenheimer will also skew similarly in a way, but some locations are gonna do extra extra well because of the rare print and it being the recommended way of viewing.

This becomes to much a science in itself.

It was the only big sommer film where the presales looked really good - sigh.

Edited June 21, 2023 by el sid

[M37]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday was run just an hour ago and so its more than a day. We have to see how things go today to gauge the pace for this week. I wont be there to track this move to release. So hoping @ZackM would track in its final week. I am thinking around 42-43K by T-7 and 50K by end of this week. For now seeing around ~130k finish at MTC1 and that should be around 7m previews. 

Agree with these sales projections, but think Indy will be MTC1 light, so can get to $8M+ from that final tally. GOTG3 had a $58/tix PSM, TGM was $67.5 (and over $70 for just Thursday), so something above $60/tix seems right

 

Mostly still sitting in the $7.5-$9M range, waiting to see if there's a reason to move off of that

[ZackM]

On 6/20/2023 at 8:31 AM, ZackM said:

 

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Sold	1,364	1,247	934	1,189	968
6/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	421	2,474	38,099	504,635	7.55%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	6	12	32
ATP	Gross
$18.60	$708,641

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	29	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	4,055	0	0	0	0
Seats Sold	1,538	1,364	1,247	934	1,189
6/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	422	2,503	39,637	508,690	7.79%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	7	15	36
ATP	Gross
$18.60	$737,248

[rehpyc]

21 hours ago, rehpyc said:

 

Indy T-10

NTTD: 9.22M

GA: 10.90M

JWD: 8.25M

JW4: 12.26M

Flash: 7.77M

TLM: 10.12M

 

Market adjusted Ghostbusters: Afterlife. The Flash continuing to be consistent.

Indy T-9

NTTD: 8.81M

GA: 10.76M

JWD: 8.26M

JW4: 11.88M

Flash: 7.84M

TLM: 9.75M

 

All but JW4 have a current trajectory of 7-8M, but I anticipate for those to lift a bit as we get closer, for more of a 8-9M range that JW4 covers.

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by rehpyc

[upriser7]

I feel like Sacramento might slightly overindex for Barbie considering director of the movie is from Sacramento and from what I remember, one of her earlier movies had that Sacramento backdrop and few scenes specific to the city. Her name might have some additional value in Sacramento market 

[Bobzaruni]

49 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Indy T-9

NTTD: 8.81M

GA: 10.76M

JWD: 8.26M

JW4: 11.88M

Flash: 7.84M

TLM: 9.75M

 

All but JW4 have a current trajectory of 7-8M, but I anticipate for those to lift a bit as we get closer, for more of a 8-9M range that JW4 covers.

 

80M~ opening?

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, rehpyc said:

Indy T-9

NTTD: 8.81M

GA: 10.76M

JWD: 8.26M

JW4: 11.88M

Flash: 7.84M

TLM: 9.75M

 

All but JW4 have a current trajectory of 7-8M, but I anticipate for those to lift a bit as we get closer, for more of a 8-9M range that JW4 covers.

 

Don't give us hope. 😃

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/20/2023 at 8:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-2	Jax	6	10	43	198	917	21.59%
		Phx	5	11	19	98	720	13.61%
		Ral	5	10	14	76	848	8.96%
	Total		16	31	76	372	2,485	14.97%
No Feelings	T-2	Jax	5	15	16	43	1,284	3.35%
		Phx	6	22	12	44	1,994	2.21%
		Ral	6	17	25	57	1,568	3.64%
	Total		17	54	53	144	4,846	2.97%

 

Asteroid City T-2 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.155x (2.31m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.133x (2.07m)

 - The Menu - 2.09x (1.88m)

 - Violent Night - 2.431x (2.67m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.548x (1.91m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 3.683x (2.34m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.23m.  

 

No Hard Feelings T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.6x (800k)

 - Violent Night - .941x (1.04m)

 - 80 for Brady - .796x (597k)

 - Lost City - .413x (1.03m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.426x (905k)

 - The Menu - .809x (728k)

 

Size adjusted average - 828k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-1	Jax	6	12	12	210	1,104	19.02%
		Phx	7	16	30	128	1,490	8.59%
		Ral	5	10	32	108	848	12.74%
	Total		18	38	74	446	3,442	12.96%
No Feelings	T-1	Jax	5	19	11	54	1,567	3.45%
		Phx	7	28	36	80	2,480	3.23%
		Ral	7	27	29	86	2,756	3.12%
	Total		19	74	76	220	6,803	3.23%

 

Asteroid City T-1 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.067x (2.13m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.208x (2.1m)

 - The Menu - 2.094x (1.88m)

 - Violent Night - 2.35x (2.58m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.264x (1.7m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 3.076x (1.95m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.06m 

New model prediction - 2.1m

 

No Hard Feelings T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.075x (1.04m)

 - Violent Night - 1.158x (1.27m)

 - 80 for Brady - .969x (727k)

 - Lost City - .455x (1.14m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.517x (963k)

 - The Menu - 1.033x (930k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1m

 

I looked at the movies that have had the most similar growth rates over the past few days and was a little surprised by what I found.  I wouldn't normally use any of these as comps, but I'm wondering if this could be more predictive for previews.

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Old - 1.089x (1.63m)

 - Reminiscence - 3.014x (2.05m)

 - King Richard - .661x (1.28m)

 - Space Jam - .101x (1.32m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 1.257x (1.65m)

 - The Invitation - 2.095x (1.62m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.59m

 

I'll see if this has any predictive power going forward and maybe incorporate it into my predictions.

 

Asteroid City - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.264x (1.7m)

 - Massive Talent - 2.335x (1.63m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.208x (2.1m)

 - Last Duel - 5.247x (1.84m)

 - Nope - .327x (2.09m)

 - Bullet Train - .602x (2.02m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.93m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/20/2023 at 8:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-9	Jax	6	64	12	316	10,205	3.10%
		Phx	6	43	7	187	8,309	2.25%
		Ral	8	53	11	347	7,972	4.35%
	Total		20	160	30	850	26,486	3.21%
Ruby Gillman	T-9	Jax	5	19	0	2	2,145	0.09%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	0	13	2,563	0.51%
	Total		18	70	0	19	6,944	0.27%

 

Ruby Gillman T-9 comps

 - Bad Guys - .463x (533k)

 - Super Pets - .345x (760k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.267x (728k)

 - Paws of Fury - .576x (291k)

 

Size adjusted average - 562k

 

Indiana Jones T-9 comps

 - F9 - .984x (6.98m)

 - JW3 - .327x (5.78m)

 - NTTD - 1.613x (8.39m)

 - John Wick 4 - .813x (7.23m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Uncharted - 2.109x (7.8m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.21m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-8	Jax	6	64	4	320	10,205	3.14%
		Phx	6	43	7	194	8,309	2.33%
		Ral	8	53	6	353	7,972	4.43%
	Total		20	160	17	867	26,486	3.27%
Ruby Gillman	T-8	Jax	5	19	0	2	2,145	0.09%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	0	13	2,563	0.51%
	Total		18	70	0	19	6,944	0.27%

 

Ruby Gillman T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - .345x (397k)

 - Super Pets - .268x (589k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.118x (643k)

 - Paws of Fury - .559x (282k)

 

Size adjusted average - 486k

 

Indiana Jones T-8 comps

 - F9 - .963x (6.84m)

 - JW3 - .319x (5.65m)

 - NTTD - 1.472x (7.65m)

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.582x (6.57m)

 - Uncharted - 1.984x (7.34m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.71m

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Glad I'm not the only one looking at it this way. With that said, don't think the Fast X/JWD range is where the pace of the standard tickets is going to fall, given its going to skew to older white men, not a younger diverse GA. Maybe John Wick 4, but really expecting more a flatter final week like TGM & Avatar 

None of them were on sale 30 days before release.

[ringedmortality]

Man is Asteroid City winning the weekend?

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Size doesn't really matter

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/20/2023 at 9:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Joy Ride	T-16	Jax	5	17	1	1	1,591	0.06%
		Phx	5	17	0	13	1,484	0.88%
		Ral	7	24	0	5	2,099	0.24%
	Total		17	58	1	19	5,174	0.37%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-15	Jax	5	6	0	4	562	0.71%
		Phx	6	6	4	8	747	1.07%
		Ral	6	6	0	4	506	0.79%
	Total		17	18	4	16	1,815	0.88%
Sound of Freedom	T-13	Jax	5	21	13	248	1,622	15.29%
		Phx	6	38	18	379	2,889	13.12%
		Ral	6	19	18	234	2,039	11.48%
	Total		17	78	49	861	6,550	13.15%

 

Sound of Freedom T-13 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .739x (2.44m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 2.555x (1.97m)

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-16 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .321x (642k)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.458x (1.09m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.92x (1.46m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Joy Ride	T-15	Jax	5	17	3	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	1	14	1,484	0.94%
		Ral	7	24	1	6	2,099	0.29%
	Total		17	58	5	24	5,174	0.46%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-14	Jax	5	6	2	6	562	1.07%
		Phx	6	6	1	9	747	1.20%
		Ral	6	6	3	7	506	1.38%
	Total		17	18	6	22	1,815	1.21%
Sound of Freedom	T-12	Jax	5	21	34	282	1,622	17.39%
		Phx	6	38	18	397	2,889	13.74%
		Ral	6	19	45	279	2,039	13.68%
	Total		17	78	97	958	6,550	14.63%

 

Sound of Freedom T-12 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .812x (2.68m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 2.785x (2.15m)

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-15 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .414x (829k)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.643x (1.23m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.83x (1.92m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/20/2023 at 9:02 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-21	Jax	6	69	6	113	10,964	1.03%
		Phx	6	58	2	72	11,155	0.65%
		Ral	8	54	4	115	8,344	1.38%
	Total		20	181	12	300	30,463	0.98%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-19	Jax	3	3	1	33	418	7.89%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	1	13	111	11.71%
	Total		6	6	2	48	892	5.38%
	T-20	Jax	5	7	12	88	1,407	6.25%
		Phx	1	1	1	33	410	8.05%
		Ral	1	1	2	33	261	12.64%
	Total		7	9	15	154	2,078	7.41%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-21 comps

 - JW3 Total - .242x (4.36m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.81x (6.16m)

 - Black Widow - .373x (4.93m)

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 5.63m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-20	Jax	6	69	12	125	10,964	1.14%
		Phx	6	58	6	78	11,155	0.70%
		Ral	8	54	12	127	8,344	1.52%
	Total		20	181	30	330	30,463	1.08%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-18	Jax	3	3	0	33	418	7.89%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	13	111	11.71%
	Total		6	6	0	48	892	5.38%
	T-19	Jax	5	7	10	98	1,407	6.97%
		Phx	1	1	0	33	410	8.05%
		Ral	2	2	2	35	412	8.50%
	Total		8	10	12	166	2,229	7.45%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-20 comps

 - JW3 Total - .256x (4.6m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.83x (6.21m)

 - Black Widow - .381x (5.03m)

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - F9 - 1.6x (11.36m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.27x (11.26m)

 - Top Gun Total - .319x (6.16m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.82m

Edited June 21, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Added comps

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Oppenheimer	T-35	Jax	6	23	1	125	4,698	2.66%
		Phx	6	26	11	128	4,969	2.58%
		Ral	8	22	10	121	2,837	4.27%
	Total		20	71	22	374	12,504	2.99%

 

Oppenheimer T-35 comps

 - JW3 - missed

 

This is getting a little out of hand.  Tomorrow I will switch to multiple posts - one for each release week.  I'm not really a fan of splitting things out into a ton of posts as it clogs up the board, but a wall of text isn't much better to look at.  Grouping by release week will allow for quoted threads to have a start/end instead of being one long string that lasts for years.  I would have done it today but I'm already 3.5 hours in and need to call it 😬

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie (EA)	T-28	Jax	2	3	9	33	319	10.34%
		Phx	1	1	15	44	208	21.15%
		Ral	2	2	32	88	190	46.32%
	Total		5	6	56	165	717	23.01%
Oppenheimer	T-29	Jax	6	23	13	154	4,698	3.28%
		Phx	6	26	10	175	4,969	3.52%
		Ral	8	22	15	182	2,837	6.42%
	Total		20	71	38	511	12,504	4.09%

 

Oppenheimer T-29 comps

 - JW3 (Total) - .298x (5.36m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .257x (4.49m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .104x (3.73m)

 

Not many good comps this far out

 

Barbie EA T-28 comps

 - Nope - .948x (6.07m)

 - Scream VI - .76x (4.33m)

 

🙃

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-20	Jax	6	69	12	125	10,964	1.14%
		Phx	6	58	6	78	11,155	0.70%
		Ral	8	54	12	127	8,344	1.52%
	Total		20	181	30	330	30,463	1.08%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-18	Jax	3	3	0	33	418	7.89%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	13	111	11.71%
	Total		6	6	0	48	892	5.38%
	T-19	Jax	5	7	10	98	1,407	6.97%
		Phx	1	1	0	33	410	8.05%
		Ral	2	2	2	35	412	8.50%
	Total		8	10	12	166	2,229	7.45%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-20 comps

 - JW3 Total - .256x (4.6m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.83x (6.21m)

 - Black Widow - .381x (5.03m)

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 5.7m

Your comps are absolutely brutal. Mine are slightly better. Did you track Transformers?