The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	51	7037	7708	671	8.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	54
Total Seats Sold Today	18

 

T-30 Comps:

	%		Sold T-30	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.52		22	1474		0/171	22312/23786	6.20%		10966	6.12%		8.19m
BP2	13.38		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	3.99%		3.75m
FX	98.97		8	678		0/182	27060/27738	2.44%		4122	16.28%		7.42m
Indy 5	100.45		33	668		0/124	18859/19527	3.42%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     138/2968  [4.65% sold]
Matinee:          7/81  [8.64% | 1.04% of all tickets sold]
---

 70mm:              347/776    [+11 tickets] [51.71% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   236/3558  [+3 tickets] [35.17% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           88/3374   [+3 tickets] [13.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	53	7554	8250	696	8.44%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	542
Total Seats Sold Today	25

 

T-29 Comps:

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.76		47	1521		0/171	22263/23784	6.40%		10966	6.35%		8.24m
BP2	13.54		125	5141		1/294	31881/37022	13.89%		16800	4.14%		3.79m
FX	98.31		30	708		0/182	27030/27738	2.55%		4122	16.89%		7.37m
Indy 5	101.16		20	688		0/124	18839/19527	3.52%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     141/2968  [4.75% sold]
Matinee:         9/81  [11.11% | 1.29% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 356/776 [+9 tickets]   [51.15% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    239/4100 [+3 tickets]   [34.34% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           101/3374 [+13 tickets] [14.51% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23666	24366	700	2.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	37.23		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		10966	6.38%		6.70m
Ava 2	34.48		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	7.79%		5.86m
Wick 4	106.54		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	12.85%		9.48m
FX	89.17		5	785		0/182	26937/27722	2.83%		4122	16.98%		6.69m
Indy 5	75.11		37	932		0/124	18589/19521	4.77%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:     83/7967  [1.04% sold]
Matinee:    9/1687  [0.53% | 1.29% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    85/6018  [1.41% | 12.14% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]   

---

Sun:   46/457           [10.07% sold]   [+2 tickets]

Mon:  354/2256       [15.69% sold] [+28 tickets]

Tue:   300/21653     [1.39% sold]    [+18 tickets]

 

=======

 

Maybe having the social media embargo lift three weeks out wasn't the greatest of ways to drum up interest in a flick after all. :--/

 

NB:  Should still be fine if the reviews are as good as the reactions last night — plus this is a five [and a half] day opener, so tickets could be more spread out than a Fri opener.  Plus this really outta be a back-loaded type property.  Just noting the complete lack of a social media embargo lift bump.

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23609	24366	757	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

57

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	38.21		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	6.90%		6.88m
Ava 2	35.57		98	2128		0/142	19210/21338	9.97%		8986	8.42%		6.05m
Wick 4	104.41		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	13.90%		9.29m
FX	94.63		15	800		0/182	26910/27710	2.89%		4122	18.36%		7.10m
Indy 5	77.64		43	975		0/124	18546/19521	4.99%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:         100/7967  [1.26% sold]
Matinee:        10/1687  [0.59% | 1.32% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    100/6018  [1.66% | 13.21% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:    55/457      [12.04% sold]  [+9 tickets]
Mon:    383/2256 [16.98% sold] [+29 tickets]

Tue:    319/21653 [1.47% sold]   [+19 tickets]

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	134	18943	20571	1628	7.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

91

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	156.84		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	43.56%		9.72m
JWD	48.17		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	14.85%		8.67m
BA	136.58		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	36.23%		10.38m
Wick 4	111.28		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	29.88%		9.90m
FX	119.53		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	39.50%		8.96m
TLM	76.43		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	24.81%		7.87m
Flash	105.10		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	30.56%		10.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     314/6084  [5.16% sold]
Matinee:    129/1728  [7.47% | 7.92% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	135	18997	20707	1710	8.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	136
Total Seats Sold Today	82

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	145.90		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	45.76%		9.05m
JWD	47.89		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	15.59%		8.62m
BA	134.22		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	38.05%		10.20m
Wick 4	108.02		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	31.39%		9.61m
FX	119.00		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	41.48%		8.92m
TLM	75.93		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	26.06%		7.82m
Flash	103.01		111	1660		0/178	23488/25148	6.60%		5327	32.10%		9.99m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     327/6084  [5.37% sold]
Matinee:    132/1728  [7.64% | 7.72% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

****EARLY ACCESS SHOWINGS ONLY SO FAR****

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	3	177	373	196	52.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

196

 

ONE DAY ***ONLY*** COMP

EA-Exclusive — Day 1:

%

EA Tickets Sold

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Bats

52.83

371

371

0/2

56/427

86.89%

11757

1.67%

11.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

======

 

Okay, I ****SUPER HESITATED**** to post the above comp, but it is literally the only "EA tickets-only" comp I have in the last two-plus years I have of post-'rona tracking (ftr The Batman had two days of EA-exclusive ticket sales vs Barbie's one, and the above comp is after Bats Day 1 of exclusive EA sales).  There's all sorts of reasons not to read that much into it.

 

...

 

There's also all sorts of reasons to read a fair amount into it.  Quite a bit, aksually. 

 

The big wild card is, Barbie Super Fans are indeed out there and can rival (and in fact exceed) SW and CBM fans in their passion.  On the other hand, Barbie Super Fans are indeed out there, and if they turn up to this film in droves...

 

...

 

Well, find out soon enough, one way or the other.  Probably starting in a few hours.

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

***ALL SHOWINGS NOW ON SALE***

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	95	11936	12568	632	5.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

436

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	88.39		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	5.76%		15.91m
TGM	41.69		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	5.51%		8.03m
BA	148.36		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	14.06%		11.13m
Ava 2	47.88		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	7.03%		8.14m
Scream 6	296.71		213	213		0/61	6742/6955	3.06%		3134	20.17%		16.91m
Wick 4	131.39		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	11.60%		11.69m
TLM	139.21		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	9.63%		14.34m
AtSV	62.02		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	6.49%		10.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     154/4246  [3.63% sold]

MATINEE INFO COMPILED STARTING TOMORROW
------------    
Wed:       257/373 [68.90% sold] [+61 tickets sold]
Thr:     375/12195 [3.08% sold] [+375 tickets sold]

 

===

 

As if it wasn't difficult enough to figure out which movies to comp here, the EA tickets that went on sale is throwing a pretty huge monkey wrench into the whole thing.  Enough so that I went with a really large scattershot approach here, with only excluding MCU flicks in one direction (even a relatively backloaded one like GOTG3 spat out a comp of 5.85m) and smaller all-ages appeal flicks in the other direction (for instance, Sonic 2 would spit out a comp of 21.7m)

 

I included films like TLM and Scream 6 not because I thought they were generally good comps (as I don't), but more because those were probably the most recent female-skewing films we've had.  But, then again, EA-exclusivity rears its head, especially for Scream 6. 

 

Did think that @M37 had a very good suggestion when he mentioned AtSV so I'm kinda-sorta thinking of that as something of an anchor pick right now, commentary about EA sales not withstanding.

 

Really, when it comes right down to it, I MOSTLY just wanted to take a look at D1 sales of various films as the useful piece of info here and not put nearly as much weight on what the comps are saying.

 

Anyway, all that can really be said is Barbie had a great first day of general sales.  Find out soon enough just how frontloaded it is. 

 

...

 

If it is, that is.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Porthos
After thinking some, added TGM as a comp

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:39 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Barbie MiniTC2 T-30

 

Early Shows - 894/2910 (10 showings) $14350

Barbie MiniTC2 T-29
 

Early Shows - 1407/2910 (10 showings) $22664
Previews - 354/34363 (141 showings) $4269
FRI - 403/68137 (276 showings) $4981

 

Comps (2 days for Previews/1st day for FRI)

1.82x TLM Previews - $18.7M

0.98x TLM FRI - $27.3M

 

1.21x Flash Previews - $11.8M

1.11x Flash FRI - $16.4M

Edited June 24, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

***ALL SHOWINGS NOW ON SALE***

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	95	11936	12568	632	5.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

436

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	88.39		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	5.76%		15.91m
TGM	41.69		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	5.51%		8.03m
BA	148.36		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	14.06%		11.13m
Ava 2	47.88		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	7.03%		8.14m
Scream 6	296.71		213	213		0/61	6742/6955	3.06%		3134	20.17%		16.91m
Wick 4	131.39		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	11.60%		11.69m
TLM	139.21		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	9.63%		14.34m
AtSV	62.02		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	6.49%		10.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     154/4246  [3.63% sold]

MATINEE INFO COMPILED STARTING TOMORROW
------------    
Wed:       257/373 [68.90% sold] [+61 tickets sold]
Thr:     375/12195 [3.08% sold] [+375 tickets sold]

 

===

 

As if it wasn't difficult enough to figure out which movies to comp here, the EA tickets that went on sale is throwing a pretty huge monkey wrench into the whole thing.  Enough so that I went with a really large scattershot approach here, with only excluding MCU flicks in one direction (even a relatively backloaded one like GOTG3 spat out a comp of 5.85m) and smaller all-ages appeal flicks in the other direction (for instance, Sonic 2 would spit out a comp of 21.7m)

 

I included films like TLM and Scream 6 not because I thought they were generally good comps (as I don't), but more because those were probably the most recent female-skewing films we've had.  But, then again, EA-exclusivity rears its head, especially for Scream 6. 

 

Did think that @M37 had a very good suggestion when he mentioned AtSV so I'm kinda-sorta thinking of that as something of an anchor pick right now, commentary about EA sales not withstanding.

 

Really, when it comes right down to it, I MOSTLY just wanted to take a look at D1 sales of various films as the useful piece of info here and not put nearly as much weight on what the comps are saying.

 

Anyway, all that can really be said is Barbie had a great first day of general sales.  Find out soon enough just how frontloaded it is. 

 

...

 

If it is, that is.

 

One thing I forgot to add here.

 

Barbie has practically *NO* PLF showings, never mind sales locally.

 

At the moment, it has 3 PLF showtimes (thanks to a local which has multiple PLF screens) and exactly 129 DBOX seats scattered across a couple of theaters.

 

All in all, including DBOX, PLF sales are:   22/678 (3.48% of all sales)

 

Which is gonna take a hatchet to some of the comps above.

 

Just something to keep in mind going forward.

[lorddemaxus]

I'm confused about Dolby screen allocation for Barbie. Is this sharing Dolby screens with either MI7 or Oppenheimer (don't recall the latter having any Dolby showings at all)? A little odd that a bunch of the Dolby theaters around me haven't listed any showtimes for this yet.

Edited June 22, 2023 by lorddemaxus

[vafrow]

On 6/21/2023 at 4:38 AM, vafrow said:

 

Milton, ON

 

Various updates

 

Activity is still very low that it's hard to justify separate posts.

 

T-2 No Hard Feelings

 

Sales up to 5 right now. Same as Book Club 2 at the same time. Air had 9 tickets sold on its T-1, so maybe it gets up to that range.

 

T-9 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

This remains the most depressing update. Sales stuck at 5. At this point, all comps were well ahead

Fast X - 7 tickets

ATSV -90 tickets

T:ROTB - 11 tickets

Flash - 30 tickets

 

Not sure when we may see a rally here, but it's bleak.

 

T-25 Mission Impossible 7

 

12 tickets sold.

 

Comps

ATSV - 24 tickets

T:ROTB - 3 rickets

 

My theatre has discount Tuesday pricing as well, so that'll throw off actual gross.

 

 

Milton, Ontario

 

Various updates

 

No movement at all on anything today.

 

No Hard Feelings T-1

Still at 5. I'll try and report back with actuals, but, it's not promising right now.

 

Indy 5 T-8

Still at 5 tickets sold.  I'm really not sure what's happening in this market for it to be performing so poorly.

 

MI:DR Part 1 - T-20

Still at 12 rickets

 

Barbie T-29

They finally added last night, but, I think the die hards already purchased tickets elsewhere for theatres that had it up first, as there's zero sales right now. It's been given the largest non Dolby auditorium.

 

[grey ghost]

I'm willing to bet Barbie is front loaded.

 

It's hyped up like a YA or superhero sequel.

[vale9001]

19 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I'm willing to bet Barbie is front loaded.

 

It's hyped up like a YA or superhero sequel.

But with any space to grew up if good and acclaimed. While Marvel nowdays has a big but very limited audience. At the 486th movie in the same cinematic universe you can say something is the masterpiece of the century but most people just don't care.

 

You can see it with the animated spider man. Everyone is like "this is not just a good super hero movie, it'a great movie in general" but but you don't get the explosion you should expect like for top gun, cause for most people is "just another spider man".

Edited June 22, 2023 by vale9001

[M37]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm confused about Dolby screen allocation for Barbie. Is this sharing Dolby screens with either MI7 or Oppenheimer (don't recall the latter having any Dolby showings at all)? A little odd that a bunch of the Dolby theaters around me haven't listed any showtimes for this yet.

I think MTCs didn't quite know what to expect from Barbie, if the online hype would translate to ticket sales, so took a wait and see approach before allocating Dolby screens for that week and even booking some locations at all for general advance sales. The number of female adult skewing films that have opened north of say $40M is pretty small, and MI7/Cruise and Opp/Nolan films have a fairly solid floor and known PLF draw, especially the latter, thought it already had IMAX and 70mm shows

 

The first day of sales should definitely be a signal that Barbie interest is there, so would expect that hesitation to mostly lift, but still may be a lingering perception this is still a somewhat niche (aka broads) rather than general-appealing (broad) audience, treated more like Magic Mike (opened in only 2,930 locations summer 2012) or even Pitch Perfect 2, which was the 12th highest grossing film of 2015, yet had only the 34th highest theater allocation for OW

 

And let's be honest: the people making these decisions are probably at large not in the target Barbie audience, much closer to the MI7 & Opp crowd

[Mulder]

Not sure if Garden State is just soaking it up but Barbie's underperforming like crazy at my local. Not a tracker so I can't say what it means but just kind of interesting to note.

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think MTCs didn't quite know what to expect from Barbie, if the online hype would translate to ticket sales, so took a wait and see approach before allocating Dolby screens for that week and even booking some locations at all for general advance sales. The number of female adult skewing films that have opened north of say $40M is pretty small, and MI7/Cruise and Opp/Nolan films have a fairly solid floor and known PLF draw, especially the latter, thought it already had IMAX and 70mm shows

 

The first day of sales should definitely be a signal that Barbie interest is there, so would expect that hesitation to mostly lift, but still may be a lingering perception this is still a somewhat niche (aka broads) rather than general-appealing (broad) audience, treated more like Magic Mike (opened in only 2,930 locations summer 2012) or even Pitch Perfect 2, which was the 12th highest grossing film of 2015, yet had only the 34th highest theater allocation for OW

 

And let's be honest: the people making these decisions are probably at large not in the target Barbie audience, much closer to the MI7 & Opp crowd

Do you sense that  barbie could possibly underindex in flyover/red states that disney movies have had issues with recently? 

Edited June 22, 2023 by GOGODanca

[M37]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

Do you sense that  barbie could possibly underindex in flyover/red states that disney movies have had issues with recently? 

Very much so, but I think it’s more of an ATSV like uphill climb, where a lot of people are just going to be flat no because of the nature of the content (animated vs girly pink) that even very good reviews & WOM will struggle to overcome 

 

I keep circling back to PP2 as the default comp at 75% F & 62% U25 - which interestingly faced off against against male-skewing Mad Max - though expecting a higher OW (or at least OWeek) but weaker legs for Barbie 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-1	Jax	6	12	12	210	1,104	19.02%
		Phx	7	16	30	128	1,490	8.59%
		Ral	5	10	32	108	848	12.74%
	Total		18	38	74	446	3,442	12.96%
No Feelings	T-1	Jax	5	19	11	54	1,567	3.45%
		Phx	7	28	36	80	2,480	3.23%
		Ral	7	27	29	86	2,756	3.12%
	Total		19	74	76	220	6,803	3.23%

 

Asteroid City T-1 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.067x (2.13m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.208x (2.1m)

 - The Menu - 2.094x (1.88m)

 - Violent Night - 2.35x (2.58m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.264x (1.7m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 3.076x (1.95m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.06m 

New model prediction - 2.1m

 

No Hard Feelings T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.075x (1.04m)

 - Violent Night - 1.158x (1.27m)

 - 80 for Brady - .969x (727k)

 - Lost City - .455x (1.14m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.517x (963k)

 - The Menu - 1.033x (930k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1m

 

I looked at the movies that have had the most similar growth rates over the past few days and was a little surprised by what I found.  I wouldn't normally use any of these as comps, but I'm wondering if this could be more predictive for previews.

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Old - 1.089x (1.63m)

 - Reminiscence - 3.014x (2.05m)

 - King Richard - .661x (1.28m)

 - Space Jam - .101x (1.32m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 1.257x (1.65m)

 - The Invitation - 2.095x (1.62m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.59m

 

I'll see if this has any predictive power going forward and maybe incorporate it into my predictions.

 

Asteroid City - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.264x (1.7m)

 - Massive Talent - 2.335x (1.63m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.208x (2.1m)

 - Last Duel - 5.247x (1.84m)

 - Nope - .327x (2.09m)

 - Bullet Train - .602x (2.02m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.93m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-0	Jax	6	12	52	262	1,104	23.73%
		Phx	7	16	55	183	1,490	12.28%
		Ral	5	10	28	136	848	16.04%
	Total		18	38	135	581	3,442	16.88%
No Feelings	T-0	Jax	5	19	72	126	1,567	8.04%
		Phx	7	30	67	147	2,568	5.72%
		Ral	7	27	82	168	2,756	6.10%
	Total		19	76	221	441	6,891	6.40%

 

Asteroid City T-0 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.648x (2.32m)

 - The Menu - 2.12x (1.91m)

 - Violent Night - 2.18x (2.4m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.515x (1.89m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 2.22x (1.41m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.81m 

New model prediction - 1.82m

 

No Hard Feelings T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.528x (1.764m)

 - Violent Night - 1.658x (1.824m)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.51x (1.132)

 - Lost City - .643x (1.607m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.683x (1.07m)

 - The Menu - 1.609x (1.45m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.41m

New model prediction - 1.77m

 

I made a couple adjustments to my growth model for finding comps.  

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Pope's Exorcist - 2.172x (1.85m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.305x (1.44m)

 - Northman - .803x (1.08m)

 - Encanto - .976x (1.46m)

 - West Side Story - 1.505x (1.2m)

 - The Menu (Total) - 1.058x (1.058m)

 - House of Gucci - .971x (1.263m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.22m

 

Asteroid City - Similar growth pattern comps

 - House of Gucci - 1.28x (1.66m)

 - Candyman - 1.124x (2.14m)

 - One Piece - .625x (1.06m)

 - Suzume - 1.442x (980k)

 - RRR - .408x (1.41m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

For my semi-final predictions (before 1hr check) I'll go with 1.45m for No Hard Feelings (excluding EA) and 1.6m for Asteroid City.  Looking at other areas makes me think these will be pretty far off, but I'm only going off how my regions are selling.

Edited June 22, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Fixed comps for NHF

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-8	Jax	6	64	4	320	10,205	3.14%
		Phx	6	43	7	194	8,309	2.33%
		Ral	8	53	6	353	7,972	4.43%
	Total		20	160	17	867	26,486	3.27%
Ruby Gillman	T-8	Jax	5	19	0	2	2,145	0.09%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	0	13	2,563	0.51%
	Total		18	70	0	19	6,944	0.27%

 

Ruby Gillman T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - .345x (397k)

 - Super Pets - .268x (589k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.118x (643k)

 - Paws of Fury - .559x (282k)

 

Size adjusted average - 486k

 

Indiana Jones T-8 comps

 - F9 - .963x (6.84m)

 - JW3 - .319x (5.65m)

 - NTTD - 1.472x (7.65m)

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.582x (6.57m)

 - Uncharted - 1.984x (7.34m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.71m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-7	Jax	6	64	13	333	10,205	3.26%
		Phx	6	44	13	207	8,381	2.47%
		Ral	8	60	12	365	8,644	4.22%
	Total		20	168	38	905	27,230	3.32%
Ruby Gillman	T-7	Jax	5	19	0	2	2,145	0.09%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	0	13	2,563	0.51%
	Total		18	70	0	19	6,944	0.27%

 

Ruby Gillman T-7 comps

 - Bad Guys - .328x (377k)

 - Super Pets - .253x (557k)

 - Lyle Lyle - missed

 - Paws of Fury - .528x (267k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .576x (754k)

 

Size adjusted average - 436k

 

Indiana Jones T-7 comps

 - F9 - .938x (6.66m)

 - JW3 - .31x (5.49m)

 - NTTD - 1.319x (6.86m)

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.568x (6.51m)

 - Uncharted - 1.897x (7.02m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.46m

[Mulder]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Very much so, but I think it’s more of an ATSV like uphill climb, where a lot of people are just going to be flat no because of the nature of the content (animated vs girly pink) that even very good reviews & WOM will struggle to overcome 

 

I keep circling back to PP2 as the default comp at 75% F & 62% U25 - which interestingly faced off against against male-skewing Mad Max - though expecting a higher OW (or at least OWeek) but weaker legs for Barbie 

Yeah this sounds right. Again without me actively tracking this just going off of me giving glances, but ATSV also underperformed at my theater right up until opening which is reminding me of Barbie again. Garden State's showings doing great, locals doing just ok/poorly.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Joy Ride	T-15	Jax	5	17	3	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	1	14	1,484	0.94%
		Ral	7	24	1	6	2,099	0.29%
	Total		17	58	5	24	5,174	0.46%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-14	Jax	5	6	2	6	562	1.07%
		Phx	6	6	1	9	747	1.20%
		Ral	6	6	3	7	506	1.38%
	Total		17	18	6	22	1,815	1.21%
Sound of Freedom	T-12	Jax	5	21	34	282	1,622	17.39%
		Phx	6	38	18	397	2,889	13.74%
		Ral	6	19	45	279	2,039	13.68%
	Total		17	78	97	958	6,550	14.63%

 

Sound of Freedom T-12 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .812x (2.68m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 2.785x (2.15m)

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-15 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .414x (829k)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.643x (1.23m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.83x (1.92m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	T-14	Jax	5	20	12	12	2,037	0.59%
		Phx	6	18	33	33	2,820	1.17%
		Ral	7	24	3	3	2,829	0.11%
	Total		18	62	48	48	7,686	0.62%
Joy Ride	T-14	Jax	5	17	0	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	-1	13	1,484	0.88%
		Ral	7	24	3	9	2,099	0.43%
	Total		17	58	2	26	5,174	0.50%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	6	-1	5	562	0.89%
		Phx	6	6	0	9	747	1.20%
		Ral	6	6	-1	6	506	1.19%
	Total		17	18	-2	20	1,815	1.10%
Sound of Freedom	T-11	Jax	5	21	24	306	1,622	18.87%
		Phx	6	38	38	435	2,889	15.06%
		Ral	6	19	49	328	2,039	16.09%
	Total		17	78	111	1,069	6,550	16.32%

 

Sound of Freedom T-11 comps

 - Jesus Revolution EA - 1.009x (2.38m)

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - missed

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.037x (2.35m)

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-14 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .404x (807k)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.278x (958k)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.18x (2.09m)

 - Violent Night - 1.533x (1.69m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.13m

 

Insidious 5 T-14 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .41x (1.23m)

 - Scream VI - .08x (448k)

 - Nope - .149x (951k)

 - M3GAN - 1.6x (4.4m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-20	Jax	6	69	12	125	10,964	1.14%
		Phx	6	58	6	78	11,155	0.70%
		Ral	8	54	12	127	8,344	1.52%
	Total		20	181	30	330	30,463	1.08%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-18	Jax	3	3	0	33	418	7.89%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	13	111	11.71%
	Total		6	6	0	48	892	5.38%
	T-19	Jax	5	7	10	98	1,407	6.97%
		Phx	1	1	0	33	410	8.05%
		Ral	2	2	2	35	412	8.50%
	Total		8	10	12	166	2,229	7.45%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-20 comps

 - JW3 Total - .256x (4.6m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.83x (6.21m)

 - Black Widow - .381x (5.03m)

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - F9 - 1.6x (11.36m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.27x (11.26m)

 - Top Gun Total - .319x (6.16m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.82m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-19	Jax	6	69	6	131	10,964	1.19%
		Phx	6	58	2	80	11,155	0.72%
		Ral	8	54	2	129	8,344	1.55%
	Total		20	181	10	340	30,463	1.12%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-17	Jax	3	3	0	33	418	7.89%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	13	111	11.71%
	Total		6	6	0	48	892	5.38%
	T-18	Jax	5	7	1	99	1,407	7.04%
		Phx	1	1	2	35	410	8.54%
		Ral	2	2	-1	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	10	2	168	2,229	7.54%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-19 comps

 - JW3 Total - .253x (4.56m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.85x (6.28m)

 - Black Widow - .366x (4.83m)

 - Avatar 2 - .351x (5.96m)

 - F9 - 1.5x (10.67m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.13x (10.1m)

 - Top Gun Total - .3x (5.79m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.59m

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie (EA)	T-28	Jax	2	3	9	33	319	10.34%
		Phx	1	1	15	44	208	21.15%
		Ral	2	2	32	88	190	46.32%
	Total		5	6	56	165	717	23.01%
Oppenheimer	T-29	Jax	6	23	13	154	4,698	3.28%
		Phx	6	26	10	175	4,969	3.52%
		Ral	8	22	15	182	2,837	6.42%
	Total		20	71	38	511	12,504	4.09%

 

Oppenheimer T-29 comps

 - JW3 (Total) - .298x (5.36m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .257x (4.49m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .104x (3.73m)

 

Not many good comps this far out

 

Barbie EA T-28 comps

 - Nope - .948x (6.07m)

 - Scream VI - .76x (4.33m)

 

🙃

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-28	Jax	5	41	26	46	5,024	0.92%
		Phx	6	29	26	107	4,876	2.19%
		Ral	8	45	73	152	5,631	2.70%
	Total		19	115	125	305	15,531	1.96%
Barbie (EA)	T-27	Jax	2	3	48	81	319	25.39%
		Phx	1	1	82	126	208	60.58%
		Ral	2	2	33	121	190	63.68%
	Total		5	6	163	328	717	45.75%
Oppenheimer	T-28	Jax	6	23	4	158	4,698	3.36%
		Phx	6	26	8	183	4,969	3.68%
		Ral	8	22	14	196	2,837	6.91%
	Total		20	71	26	537	12,504	4.29%

 

Oppenheimer T-28 comps

 - JW3 (Total) - missed

 - Ant-Man 3 - .24x (4.2m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .089x (3.22m)

 - Nope - 3.086x (19.75m)

 - Scream VI - 2.475x (14.11m)

 

Not many good comps this far out

 

Barbie (Total) T-28 comps

 - Nope - 3.64x (23.28m)

 - Scream VI - 2.92x (16.63m)

 

Fun times