The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Thursday alone nearly double the already way over-indexing first update of Indy 5. If you assume ~$8M final, that would be $15M+ (excluding EA)

 

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Bit of an asterisk for Drafthouse, they are offering limited exclusive merch.

 

 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

 

 

Oh, I saw the note, wasn’t a real comp/projection, just wanted to give some added perspective to the volume 

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - Asteroid City (June 22, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	730 PM	62	241	25.73%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	1015 PM	8	241	3.32%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	715 PM	5	95	5.26%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	955 PM	3	95	3.16%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	715 PM	18	101	17.82%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	955 PM	1	74	1.35%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	700 PM	32	43	74.42%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	730 PM	31	50	62.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	800 PM	68	134	50.75%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	940 PM	21	43	48.84%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1020 PM	4	50	8.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	700 PM	66	111	59.46%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	800 PM	12	406	2.96%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	945 PM	26	111	23.42%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	700 PM	2	77	2.60%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	830 PM	0	77	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		70	482	14.52%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		8	190	4.21%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		19	175	10.86%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		156	320	48.75%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		104	628	16.56%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		2	154	1.30%
Total Sold		359	1949	18.42%

Ticket sales better than I thought for this one, but as you can see it's very location dependent. Doing very well in the Atlanta and Chicago city locations. Suburban interest is limited. I don't have a good comp here, but this same theater city had roughly the same amount of tickets sold for Evil Dead Rise (325 tickets sold) at T-1. I wonder if Asteroid City is an overperform as reviews are good and cast is strong.

Edited June 22, 2023 by JayPrimetown

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - No Hard Feelings (June 22, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	430 PM	11	270	4.07%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	630 PM	16	270	5.93%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	900 PM	15	270	5.56%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	415 PM	4	100	4.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	530 PM	2	182	1.10%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	700 PM	11	100	11.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	815 PM	5	182	2.75%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	945 PM	3	100	3.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	400 PM	26	60	43.33%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	640 PM	32	60	53.33%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	730 PM	17	66	25.76%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	920 PM	16	60	26.67%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	1010 PM	2	66	3.03%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	400 PM	3	57	5.26%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	640 PM	27	57	47.37%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	830 PM	6	35	17.14%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	930 PM	12	57	21.05%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1045 PM	1	134	0.75%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	400 PM	4	221	1.81%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	640 PM	19	221	8.60%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	930 PM	2	221	0.90%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1040 PM	1	406	0.25%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	400 PM	4	76	5.26%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	530 PM	0	77	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	630 PM	15	76	19.74%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	800 PM	3	77	3.90%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	900 PM	5	76	6.58%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	1030 PM	0	77	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		42	810	5.19%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		25	664	3.77%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		93	312	29.81%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		49	340	14.41%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		26	1069	2.43%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		27	459	5.88%
Total Sold		262	3654	7.17%

 

While not as many total tickets sold as Asteroid City, the share among the theaters is much more evenly split which makes me believe this will have more widespread appeal. I saw it on Saturday and thought it is one of the better theaters comedies in some time. Should do well with the 30-45 crowd who misses the appeal of the 2000's comedies. I expect Fri and Sat evening will see this be a great date night alternative. I expect good walk up sales given the circumstance. $15 Million is certainly a possibility. No great comps for this one either. This will definitely serve as a good comp for Joy Ride in a few weeks though.

Edited June 22, 2023 by JayPrimetown

[misterpepp]

Haunted Mansion on sale June 28

Psycho-Pass Providence on sale June 23

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-28 Wednesday

15 Showings

2000

+2000

2067

ATP:

19.66

T-29 Thursday

119 Showings

3633

+3633

15773

ATP:

17.85

0.731

The Batman Thurs only 6.5 hours

12.86M

 

T-30 Friday

160 Showings

3680

+3680

21621

ATP:

16.12

0.890

The Batman 6.5 hours

31.21M

 

T-31 Saturday

165 Showings

3910

+3910

22562

ATP:

15.50

1.270

The Batman 6.5 hours

54.95M

 

T-32 Sunday

161 Showings

1965

+1965

21527

ATP:

15.10

1.740

The Batman 6.5 hours

59.42M

 

Bit of an asterisk for Drafthouse, they are offering limited exclusive merch.

Drafthouse will overindex, this being from niche film twitter director.

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Drafthouse will overindex, this being from niche film twitter director.

 

LOL so Barbie is not about to open to $150m+?

[GOGODanca]

9 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Barbie Early Access (22.5 hour sales): 219 tickets sold across 4 showtimes (4 locs)

 

Barbie Previews (1.5 hour sales): 163 tickets sold (10 locs)

Barbie Previews (10 hour check): 198 tickets sold (10 locs)

Edited June 22, 2023 by GOGODanca

[joselowe]

According to Barbie stans this movie is going to do Avatar numbers lol

[GOGODanca]

so do you guys think oppenheimer will get dolby in morning/noon and barbie for evening shows?

[Borobudur]

35 minutes ago, joselowe said:

According to Barbie stans this movie is going to do Avatar numbers lol

Avatar called itself the biggest movie event of the generation, Barbie can do that too, the biggest female cinematic event of the generation. 

[filmlover]

32 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

so do you guys think oppenheimer will get dolby in morning/noon and barbie for evening shows?

Theaters with both an IMAX and a Dolby are giving Oppenheimer the IMAX and Barbie the Dolby for that weekend from what I can tell. Most theaters probably won't have a good idea about auditorium placement overall until we're closer to release and have a clearer picture re: tracking (though seems inevitable that Barbie will be #1 that weekend at this point).

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Theaters with both an IMAX and a Dolby are giving Oppenheimer the IMAX and Barbie the Dolby for that weekend from what I can tell. Most theaters probably won't have a good idea about auditorium placement overall until we're closer to release and have a clearer picture re: tracking (though seems inevitable that Barbie will be #1 that weekend at this point).

MI DR is going to have great WOM most likely and still have a mammoth second week drop. Sigh. I really want all 3 of these movies to do well for the health of the box office but it feels like MI is just going to be collateral damage that weekend. Finger crossed it can coexist with these 2 movies. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

MI DR is going to have great WOM most likely and still have a mammoth second week drop. Sigh. I really want all 3 of these movies to do well for the health of the box office but it feels like MI is just going to be collateral damage that weekend. Finger crossed it can coexist with these 2 movies. 

It should hold fine enough (whatever it ends up opening too) given that a pair of openers that weekend are more likely than not going to combine for $100M+ alone. Once it clears that hurdle it'll have a long path for potential staying power given how depressingly barren August looks this year.

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

MI DR is going to have great WOM most likely and still have a mammoth second week drop. Sigh. I really want all 3 of these movies to do well for the health of the box office but it feels like MI is just going to be collateral damage that weekend. Finger crossed it can coexist with these 2 movies. 

MIDR won't tank second weekend because it opens on a "wednesday". That means the OW will be deflated. Even the Last Knight only dropped 60% second weekend.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Previews(T-2)

No Hard Feelings - 10479/144857 154749.71 +3682

Asteroid City - 8207/68400 117860.49 +2175

MTC1 Previews(T-1)

No Hard Feelings - 15188/147118 223118.18 1418 shows +4709

Asteroid City - 10979/71252 159003.83 704 shows +2772

 

Not sure Asteroid City will be able to have the walkups required to hit 1m. Its probably falling short. No Hard feelings should come close to 35K. That means 1.7-1.8m previews. 

[Dlund87]

50 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Theaters with both an IMAX and a Dolby are giving Oppenheimer the IMAX and Barbie the Dolby for that weekend from what I can tell. Most theaters probably won't have a good idea about auditorium placement overall until we're closer to release and have a clearer picture re: tracking (though seems inevitable that Barbie will be #1 that weekend at this point).

Even after 1 day? Are ticket sales that strong for Barbie?

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Barbie MTC1

Early Shows - 13791/20804 298911.09 109 shows

Previews - 14658/286235 260622.60 1715 shows

 

Good start for sure but I am not impressed with show allocations. It appears Plexes are still looking at how to allocate shows between B & O at this point.  

Barbie MTC1

Early Shows - 14369/20671 310692.81 108 shows // one show is not returning data. Could be due to it being a sellout. 

Previews - 18103/291382 320192.69 1746 shows

 

Good numbers. This movie is definitely not niche. Its going to be a big movie. With very good reviews which I expect for Gerwig's project, this will have a good final surge for sure. Let us wait and see. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:35 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer MTC1

Previews - 28773/264034 576104.09 1312 shows

Friday - 24159/478754 470835.63 2312 shows

Oppenheimer MTC1

Previews - 31919/265596 635577.11 1344 shows

Friday - 26148/482916 506370.98 2376 shows

 

Friday is from 11AM today. So 2 days of data.  Previews if from just now and its has grown a lot today. Definitely benefiting from Barbie/Oppo combo buzz. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It should hold fine enough (whatever it ends up opening too) given that a pair of openers that weekend are more likely than not going to combine for $100M+ alone. Once it clears that hurdle it'll have a long path for potential staying power given how depressingly barren August looks this year.

Hope so, MI movies always have great legs but have never faced a one two punch like this in the second weekend.  I would love for it to be a mammoth weekend at the box office that weekend.  The potential is there.  Even this past weekend with the Flash Doom and Gloom did almost 200 million for the 4 days.